One of the more interesting discussion points every time a new fantasy football season rolls around is in regards to the draft slots. While it is possible with wise decisions, bold moves and fearless picks to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to veteran fantasy owners that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. Every draft slot will have positives, negatives and its own unique draft strategy and it is imperative that fantasy owners take the time to really breakdown the advantages and disadvantages to their draft position. That is where I and this long-running Footballguys exclusive come in.
This series of articles will take an in-depth look at multiple types of leagues such as 10-team, 12-team and 14-team leagues as well as unique starting lineup and scoring rules. We will run a mock draft for every new scenario and breakdown the positives and negatives of each draft position.
This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator. The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.
This particular series is based on...
14 teams 18 rounds
There are a few interesting twists in this study
Flex player added 6 points per passing touchdown 1 point per reception for running backs / receivers but 1.5 points per reception for tight ends
Starting Lineup Requirements(18 total players on roster)
1 Quarterback 2 Running Backs 3 Wide Receivers 1 Tight End 1 Place Kicker 1 Team Defense 1 Flex Player (RB, WR, TE)
League Scoring Rules
Passing: 1 point every 20 passing yards / 6 points per touchdown pass / -1 point per interception Rushing: 1 point every 10 rushing yards / 6 points per touchdown Receiving: 1 point every 10 receiving yards / 6 points per touchdown / 1 point per reception (RBs and WRs) / 1.5 points per reception (TEs) Kicking: 3 points per field goal / 1 point per extra point Defense: 5 points for shutout / 3 points for allowing < 7 points / 1 point for allowing less than 11 points / 2 points for interceptions / fumble recoveries and safeties / 1 point per sack
A few players are dropping further than anticipated in the Draft Dominator likely due to a number of factors. I have tweaked those players' projections higher in order to have them drafted where they should be in the draft. I am always striving to make this series better so if you have any feedback or questions, let me know. If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail at smith@footballguys.com, and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.
Onto the article.
Drafting 8th overall (14-team re-draft)
As mentioned in the previous two articles in this series, 14-team leagues are very tough. The elite talent pool dries up in a hurry and especially so in a FLEX league, quarterbacks are de-valued and the other three positions are elevated. Starting a combination of 7 players at (RB, WR and TE) means 98 players in those three positions will start each week. In a non-FLEX twelve team comparable league only 72 players in those positions will start. An extra 26 starters each week truly does thin down the talent pool quickly and that is why it is important to leave the quarterback position until at least round six unless exceptional value drops down to your pick.
Eighth overall is an interesting place to draft from. The top 4-5 running backs, WR Calvin Johnson, QB Aaron Rodgers and possible TE Jimmy Graham are all likely to be off the board here. That means you are drafting behind the eight ball in comparison with the owners drafting first through seventh. However the earlier second-round pick will help even the odds and there is a decent chance one of the above players drop to your spot here. What you are hoping for here is for Aaron Rodgers to be selected by your pick as it will be next to impossible to leave him on the board here. If he does drop to this pick, completely ignore this possible until at least round 12 and take whatever backup quarterback you can get. I will look at three different scenarios below to provide different looks at possibilities and how your foundation (the first five picks) will look if you go down that path.
Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft
League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds
Taking a wide receiver in the first round - Possible squad through five rounds
WR Calvin Johnson RB Ahmad Bradshaw WR Julio Jones WR Steve Smith RB Willis McGahee
In this example, starting off Calvin Johnson is just fine. It really does not matter if you go receiver or running back first depending on how is available as you must start a combination of seven from these positions and tight end no matter who you take first. A decent running back is available in round two so it is better to go running back here than receivers realizing that receiver talent will still be on the board in rounds three and four. After scooping up a nice pair of pass catchers in round three and four it is nice to find a decent running back option in round five. All in all, with three strong receivers and two decent running backs on the board, this is a good foundation to build upon. If this was my running back pair I would look to handcuff rookie Ronnie Hillman to McGahee and rookie David Wilson to Bradshaw to really cement the fantasy points from these two positions.
Taking a quarterback in the first round - Possible squad through five rounds
QB Aaron Rodgers RB Adrian Peterson WR Wes Welker WR Dez Bryant RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis
In this second example of a running back heavy start to the fantasy draft, I like how this turned out more than I thought I would. The nice thing here is having the quarterback position sewn up with a quarterback likely to post huge numbers with six points per touchdown pass. A running back combination of Adrian Peterson and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is solid with high upside potential while the receiving duo of Wes Welker and Dez Bryant is strong. Following the next few rounds through, not having to target the quarterback position while other teams are doing so will help to secure another running back or two, receiver and a good starting tight end and this squad would be in solid shape. If Rodgers is available in the 8 slot, he must be selected and it is nice to know the squad will still be in good shape despite the FLEX position.
League that has more flexibility in first two rounds
If your league has more flexibility in the top include the best quarterbacks and receivers off the board, then a more conventional approach is in order...
Possible squad through five rounds
RB Matt Forte RB Jamaal Charles RB Marshawn Lynch WR Dez Bryant WR DeSean Jackson
This is a big switch up from the earlier examples. In this mock up, running back talent is the one that slips each round and a more conventional drafting strategy of RB/RB/RB to begin the draft occurs. Obviously the strength of this squad is going to be the starting running back trio as in most weeks, the FLEX play will come from there. The receiving core is also in good shape with a strong pair of receivers.
Likely selections in first seven rounds
Round 1: WR Calvin Johnson / QB Aaron Rodgers / RB Round 2: RB/WR/QB Drew Brees or Tom Brady/ TE Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski Round 3: RB/WR or QB/TE mentioned above Round 4: RB/WR unless exceptional value at QB (above mentioned plus Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton), or TE above plus Antonio Gates Round 5: RB/WR unless great value at QB Round 6: RB/WR/TE/QB Round 7: RB/WR/TE/QB
Positives of the draft slot
Lots of talent available inside the top-eight this season Less time between picks makes it easier to project next players available The earlier 2nd round pick over owners first through seventh can be big advantage
Negatives of the draft slot
Hard to dictate direction of the draft when stuck in the middle Can feel like you are playing catch-up with owners ahead (1st through 7th) and behind (earlier 2nd round picks) Impossible to project the first two rounds of your draft beforehand. Too many uncertainties in the middle of the draft
Final Draft Table
Pick |
Pos |
Player Selected |
Team |
Selected By |
1.01 |
RB1 |
Arian Foster |
Hou/8 |
Team 1 |
1.02 |
RB2 |
Ray Rice |
Bal/8 |
Team 2 |
1.03 |
RB3 |
LeSean McCoy |
Phi/7 |
Team 3 |
1.04 |
RB4 |
Matt Forte |
Chi/6 |
Team 4 |
1.05 |
QB1 |
Aaron Rodgers |
GB/10 |
Team 5 |
1.06 |
WR1 |
Calvin Johnson |
Det/5 |
Team 6 |
1.07 |
QB2 |
Tom Brady |
NE/9 |
Team 7 |
1.08 |
RB7 |
Chris Johnson |
Ten/11 |
Draft Study Team |
1.09 |
RB5 |
Trent Richardson |
Cle/10 |
Team 9 |
1.10 |
QB3 |
Drew Brees |
NO/6 |
Team 10 |
1.11 |
RB6 |
Darren McFadden |
Oak/5 |
Team 11 |
1.12 |
TE1 |
Jimmy Graham |
NO/6 |
Team 12 |
1.13 |
TE2 |
Rob Gronkowski |
NE/9 |
Team 13 |
1.14 |
RB8 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
Jac/6 |
Team 14 |
2.01 |
RB9 |
Jamaal Charles |
KC/7 |
Team 14 |
2.02 |
RB10 |
Ahmad Bradshaw |
NYG/11 |
Team 13 |
2.03 |
RB11 |
DeMarco Murray |
Dal/5 |
Team 12 |
2.04 |
RB12 |
Ryan Matthews |
SD/7 |
Team 11 |
2.05 |
RB13 |
Doug Martin |
TB/5 |
Team 10 |
2.06 |
WR2 |
Larry Fitzgerald |
Ari/10 |
Team 9 |
2.07 |
WR3 |
Andre Johnson |
Hou/8 |
Draft Study Team |
2.08 |
RB14 |
Steven Jackson |
StL/9 |
Team 7 |
2.09 |
WR4 |
Julio Jones |
Atl/7 |
Team 6 |
2.10 |
RB15 |
Fred Jackson |
Buf/8 |
Team 5 |
2.11 |
QB4 |
Cam Newton |
Car/6 |
Team 4 |
2.12 |
QB5 |
Matthew Stafford |
Det/5 |
Team 3 |
2.13 |
WR5 |
Greg Jennings |
GB/10 |
Team 2 |
2.14 |
RB17 |
Adrian Peterson |
Min/11 |
Team 1 |
3.01 |
WR6 |
Roddy White |
Atl/7 |
Team 1 |
3.02 |
WR7 |
Jordy Nelson |
GB/10 |
Team 2 |
3.03 |
WR8 |
Dez Bryant |
Dal/5 |
Team 3 |
3.04 |
WR9 |
A.J. Green |
Cin/8 |
Team 4 |
3.05 |
WR10 |
Victor Cruz |
NYG/11 |
Team 5 |
3.06 |
RB16 |
Darren Sproles |
NO/6 |
Team 6 |
3.07 |
WR11 |
Demaryius Thomas |
Den/7 |
Team 7 |
3.08 |
WR12 |
Wes Welker |
NE/9 |
Draft Study Team |
3.09 |
WR13 |
Mike Wallace |
Pit/4 |
Team 9 |
3.10 |
WR14 |
Percy Harvin |
Min/11 |
Team 10 |
3.11 |
WR15 |
Brandon Marshall |
Chi/6 |
Team 11 |
3.12 |
WR16 |
Miles Austin |
Dal/5 |
Team 12 |
3.13 |
WR17 |
Hakeem Nicks |
NYG/11 |
Team 13 |
3.14 |
WR18 |
Marques Colston |
NO/6 |
Team 14 |
4.01 |
TE3 |
Aaron Hernandez |
NE/9 |
Team 14 |
4.02 |
RB18 |
Reggie Bush |
Mia/7 |
Team 13 |
4.03 |
RB19 |
Donald Brown |
Ind/4 |
Team 12 |
4.04 |
WR19 |
Steve Johnson |
Buf/8 |
Team 11 |
4.05 |
WR20 |
Steve Smith |
Car/6 |
Team 10 |
4.06 |
RB20 |
Marshawn Lynch |
Sea/11 |
Team 9 |
4.07 |
RB23 |
Frank Gore |
SF/9 |
Draft Study Team |
4.08 |
WR21 |
Vincent Jackson |
TB/5 |
Team 7 |
4.09 |
TE4 |
Jason Witten |
Dal/5 |
Team 6 |
4.10 |
TE5 |
Antonio Gates |
SD/7 |
Team 5 |
4.11 |
RB21 |
Isaac Redman |
Pit/4 |
Team 4 |
4.12 |
TE6 |
Vernon Davis |
SF/9 |
Team 3 |
4.13 |
RB22 |
Michael Turner |
Atl/7 |
Team 2 |
4.14 |
QB6 |
Michael Vick |
Phi/7 |
Team 1 |
5.01 |
RB24 |
James Starks |
GB/10 |
Team 1 |
5.02 |
RB25 |
Shonn Greene |
NYJ/9 |
Team 2 |
5.03 |
RB26 |
Roy Helu |
Was/10 |
Team 3 |
5.04 |
RB27 |
Jonathan Stewart |
Car/6 |
Team 4 |
5.05 |
RB28 |
BenJarvus Green-Ellis |
Cin/8 |
Team 5 |
5.06 |
RB29 |
C.J. Spiller |
Buf/8 |
Team 6 |
5.07 |
RB30 |
Willis McGahee |
Den/7 |
Team 7 |
5.08 |
WR24 |
Eric Decker |
Den/7 |
Draft Study Team |
5.09 |
QB7 |
Philip Rivers |
SD/7 |
Team 9 |
5.10 |
RB31 |
Mark Ingram |
NO/6 |
Team 10 |
5.11 |
QB8 |
Eli Manning |
NYG/11 |
Team 11 |
5.12 |
QB9 |
Tony Romo |
Dal/5 |
Team 12 |
5.13 |
WR22 |
DeSean Jackson |
Phi/7 |
Team 13 |
5.14 |
WR23 |
Denarius Moore |
Oak/5 |
Team 14 |
6.01 |
WR25 |
Jeremy Maclin |
Phi/7 |
Team 14 |
6.02 |
QB10 |
Matt Ryan |
Atl/7 |
Team 13 |
6.03 |
WR26 |
Antonio Brown |
Pit/4 |
Team 12 |
6.04 |
WR27 |
Torrey Smith |
Bal/8 |
Team 11 |
6.05 |
WR28 |
Dwayne Bowe |
KC/7 |
Team 10 |
6.06 |
WR29 |
Reggie Wayne |
Ind/4 |
Team 9 |
6.07 |
RB34 |
Stevan Ridley |
NE/9 |
Draft Study Team |
6.08 |
WR30 |
Brandon Lloyd |
NE/9 |
Team 7 |
6.09 |
RB32 |
DeAngelo Williams |
Car/6 |
Team 6 |
6.10 |
WR31 |
Darrius Heyward-Bey |
Oak/5 |
Team 5 |
6.11 |
QB11 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
Pit/4 |
Team 4 |
6.12 |
WR32 |
Santonio Holmes |
NYJ/9 |
Team 3 |
6.13 |
QB12 |
Robert Griffin III |
Was/10 |
Team 2 |
6.14 |
TE7 |
Brandon Pettigrew |
Det/5 |
Team 1 |
7.01 |
WR33 |
Kenny Britt |
Ten/11 |
Team 1 |
7.02 |
WR34 |
Sidney Rice |
Sea/11 |
Team 2 |
7.03 |
RB33 |
Ryan Williams |
Ari/10 |
Team 3 |
7.04 |
WR35 |
Robert Meachem |
SD/7 |
Team 4 |
7.05 |
RB35 |
Peyton Hillis |
KC/7 |
Team 5 |
7.06 |
WR36 |
Pierre Garcon |
Was/10 |
Team 6 |
7.07 |
RB36 |
Pierre Thomas |
NO/6 |
Team 7 |
7.08 |
QB13 |
Peyton Manning |
Den/7 |
Draft Study Team |
7.09 |
TE8 |
Jermichael Finley |
GB/10 |
Team 9 |
7.10 |
RB37 |
Kevin Smith |
Det/5 |
Team 10 |
7.11 |
RB38 |
Felix Jones |
Dal/5 |
Team 11 |
7.12 |
RB39 |
Michael Bush |
Chi/6 |
Team 12 |
7.13 |
QB14 |
Josh Freeman |
TB/5 |
Team 13 |
7.14 |
QB15 |
Carson Palmer |
Oak/5 |
Team 14 |
8.01 |
WR37 |
Malcom Floyd |
SD/7 |
Team 14 |
8.02 |
WR38 |
Greg Little |
Cle/10 |
Team 13 |
8.03 |
WR39 |
Nate Washington |
Ten/11 |
Team 12 |
8.04 |
TE9 |
Tony Gonzalez |
Atl/7 |
Team 11 |
8.05 |
TE10 |
Fred Davis |
Was/10 |
Team 10 |
8.06 |
RB40 |
Chris Wells |
Ari/10 |
Team 9 |
8.07 |
WR40 |
Anquan Boldin |
Bal/8 |
Draft Study Team |
8.08 |
RB41 |
Toby Gerhart |
Min/11 |
Team 7 |
8.09 |
QB16 |
Andy Dalton |
Cin/8 |
Team 6 |
8.10 |
WR41 |
Michael Crabtree |
SF/9 |
Team 5 |
8.11 |
WR42 |
Lance Moore |
NO/6 |
Team 4 |
8.12 |
WR43 |
Mike Williams |
TB/5 |
Team 3 |
8.13 |
WR44 |
Titus Young |
Det/5 |
Team 2 |
8.14 |
WR45 |
Austin Collie |
Ind/4 |
Team 1 |
9.01 |
TE11 |
Brent Celek |
Phi/7 |
Team 1 |
9.02 |
RB42 |
Ronnie Hillman |
Den/7 |
Team 2 |
9.03 |
WR46 |
Terrell Owens |
Sea/11 |
Team 3 |
9.04 |
DEF1 |
San Francisco |
SF/9 |
Team 4 |
9.05 |
RB43 |
Mikel Leshoure |
Det/5 |
Team 5 |
9.06 |
RB44 |
Ben Tate |
Hou/8 |
Team 6 |
9.07 |
RB45 |
Daniel Thomas |
Mia/7 |
Team 7 |
9.08 |
TE13 |
Jermaine Gresham |
Cin/8 |
Draft Study Team |
9.09 |
RB46 |
Jacquizz Rodgers |
Atl/7 |
Team 9 |
9.10 |
RB47 |
Rashad Jennings |
Jac/6 |
Team 10 |
9.11 |
DEF2 |
Philadelphia |
Phi/7 |
Team 11 |
9.12 |
RB48 |
Tim Hightower |
Was/10 |
Team 12 |
9.13 |
WR47 |
Brandon LaFell |
Car/6 |
Team 13 |
9.14 |
DEF3 |
Baltimore |
Bal/8 |
Team 14 |
10.01 |
TE12 |
Dustin Keller |
NYJ/9 |
Team 14 |
10.02 |
TE14 |
Owen Daniels |
Hou/8 |
Team 13 |
10.03 |
WR48 |
Santana Moss |
Was/10 |
Team 12 |
10.04 |
QB17 |
Matt Schaub |
Hou/8 |
Team 11 |
10.05 |
QB18 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick |
Buf/8 |
Team 10 |
10.06 |
QB19 |
Alex Smith |
SF/9 |
Team 9 |
10.07 |
RB54 |
Shane Vereen |
NE/9 |
Draft Study Team |
10.08 |
DEF4 |
Chicago |
Chi/6 |
Team 7 |
10.09 |
RB49 |
Marcel Reece |
Oak/5 |
Team 6 |
10.10 |
RB50 |
Joe McKnight |
NYJ/9 |
Team 5 |
10.11 |
WR49 |
Justin Blackmon |
Jac/6 |
Team 4 |
10.12 |
QB20 |
Joe Flacco |
Bal/8 |
Team 3 |
10.13 |
QB21 |
Jay Cutler |
Chi/6 |
Team 2 |
10.14 |
QB22 |
Andrew Luck |
Ind/4 |
Team 1 |
11.01 |
DEF5 |
New York Jets |
NYJ/9 |
Team 1 |
11.02 |
DEF6 |
Pittsburgh |
Pit/4 |
Team 2 |
11.03 |
DEF7 |
New England |
NE/9 |
Team 3 |
11.04 |
TE15 |
Jacob Tamme |
Den/7 |
Team 4 |
11.05 |
DEF8 |
Green Bay |
GB/10 |
Team 5 |
11.06 |
PK1 |
Stephen Gostkowski |
NE/9 |
Team 6 |
11.07 |
TE16 |
Jared Cook |
Ten/11 |
Team 7 |
11.08 |
WR52 |
Randy Moss |
SF/9 |
Draft Study Team |
11.09 |
DEF9 |
Detroit |
Det/5 |
Team 9 |
11.10 |
PK2 |
David Akers |
SF/9 |
Team 10 |
11.11 |
WR50 |
Nate Burleson |
Det/5 |
Team 11 |
11.12 |
DEF10 |
New York Giants |
NYG/11 |
Team 12 |
11.13 |
RB51 |
Danny Woodhead |
NE/9 |
Team 13 |
11.14 |
RB52 |
Kendall Hunter |
SF/9 |
Team 14 |
12.01 |
QB23 |
Jake Locker |
Ten/11 |
Team 14 |
12.02 |
RB53 |
David Wilson |
NYG/11 |
Team 13 |
12.03 |
QB24 |
Christian Ponder |
Min/11 |
Team 12 |
12.04 |
WR51 |
Doug Baldwin |
Sea/11 |
Team 11 |
12.05 |
WR53 |
David Nelson |
Buf/8 |
Team 10 |
12.06 |
WR54 |
Randall Cobb |
GB/10 |
Team 9 |
12.07 |
RB60 |
LeGarrette Blount |
TB/5 |
Draft Study Team |
12.08 |
QB25 |
Sam Bradford |
StL/9 |
Team 7 |
12.09 |
QB26 |
Matt Cassel |
KC/7 |
Team 6 |
12.10 |
WR55 |
Jerome Simpson |
Min/11 |
Team 5 |
12.11 |
WR56 |
Michael Floyd |
Ari/10 |
Team 4 |
12.12 |
WR57 |
Davone Bess |
Mia/7 |
Team 3 |
12.13 |
WR58 |
Laurent Robinson |
Jac/6 |
Team 2 |
12.14 |
WR59 |
Emmanuel Sanders |
Pit/4 |
Team 1 |
13.01 |
WR60 |
Brian Hartline |
Mia/7 |
Team 1 |
13.02 |
TE17 |
Coby Fleener |
Ind/4 |
Team 2 |
13.03 |
WR61 |
Brian Quick |
StL/9 |
Team 3 |
13.04 |
PK3 |
Garrett Hartley |
NO/6 |
Team 4 |
13.05 |
WR62 |
Kendall Wright |
Ten/11 |
Team 5 |
13.06 |
DEF11 |
Buffalo |
Buf/8 |
Team 6 |
13.07 |
PK4 |
Mason Crosby |
GB/10 |
Team 7 |
13.08 |
QB29 |
Mark Sanchez |
NYJ/9 |
Draft Study Team |
13.09 |
PK5 |
Sebastian Janikowski |
Oak/5 |
Team 9 |
13.10 |
RB55 |
Alex Green |
GB/10 |
Team 10 |
13.11 |
RB56 |
Isaiah Pead |
StL/9 |
Team 11 |
13.12 |
RB57 |
Jahvid Best |
Det/5 |
Team 12 |
13.13 |
RB58 |
Mike Goodson |
Oak/5 |
Team 13 |
13.14 |
RB59 |
Mike Tolbert |
Car/6 |
Team 14 |
14.01 |
RB61 |
Danny Ware |
NYG/11 |
Team 14 |
14.02 |
DEF12 |
Dallas |
Dal/5 |
Team 13 |
14.03 |
TE18 |
Greg Olsen |
Car/6 |
Team 12 |
14.04 |
TE19 |
Heath Miller |
Pit/4 |
Team 11 |
14.05 |
TE20 |
Ed Dickson |
Bal/8 |
Team 10 |
14.06 |
TE21 |
Kyle Rudolph |
Min/11 |
Team 9 |
14.07 |
DEF13 |
Seattle |
Sea/11 |
Draft Study Team |
14.08 |
DEF14 |
Atlanta |
Atl/7 |
Team 7 |
14.09 |
WR63 |
Alshon Jeffery |
Chi/6 |
Team 6 |
14.10 |
PK6 |
Alex Henery |
Phi/7 |
Team 5 |
14.11 |
RB62 |
Bernard Scott |
Cin/8 |
Team 4 |
14.12 |
RB63 |
Javon Ringer |
Ten/11 |
Team 3 |
14.13 |
DEF15 |
New Orleans |
NO/6 |
Team 2 |
14.14 |
RB64 |
Delone Carter |
Ind/4 |
Team 1 |
15.01 |
PK7 |
Dan Carpenter |
Mia/7 |
Team 1 |
15.02 |
PK8 |
Randy Bullock |
Hou/8 |
Team 2 |
15.03 |
RB65 |
LeRon McClain |
SD/7 |
Team 3 |
15.04 |
TE22 |
Lance Kendricks |
StL/9 |
Team 4 |
15.05 |
WR64 |
Vincent Brown |
SD/7 |
Team 5 |
15.06 |
TE23 |
Marcedes Lewis |
Jac/6 |
Team 6 |
15.07 |
TE24 |
Tony Moeaki |
KC/7 |
Team 7 |
15.08 |
WR78 |
Roberto Wallace |
Mia/7 |
Draft Study Team |
15.09 |
RB66 |
Leon Washington |
Sea/11 |
Team 9 |
15.10 |
DEF16 |
Arizona |
Ari/10 |
Team 10 |
15.11 |
PK9 |
Nate Kaeding |
SD/7 |
Team 11 |
15.12 |
PK10 |
Dan Bailey |
Dal/5 |
Team 12 |
15.13 |
WR65 |
Stephen Hill |
NYJ/9 |
Team 13 |
15.14 |
PK11 |
Matt Bryant |
Atl/7 |
Team 14 |
16.01 |
WR66 |
Donnie Avery |
Ind/4 |
Team 14 |
16.02 |
WR67 |
Steve Smith |
StL/9 |
Team 13 |
16.03 |
WR68 |
Jacoby Ford |
Oak/5 |
Team 12 |
16.04 |
RB72 |
Rashard Mendenhall |
Pit/4 |
Team 11 |
16.05 |
WR69 |
Devery Henderson |
NO/6 |
Team 10 |
16.06 |
WR70 |
Jason Avant |
Phi/7 |
Team 9 |
16.07 |
RB67 |
Bernard Pierce |
Bal/8 |
Draft Study Team |
16.08 |
WR71 |
Earl Bennett |
Chi/6 |
Team 7 |
16.09 |
WR72 |
Steve Breaston |
KC/7 |
Team 6 |
16.10 |
TE25 |
Scott Chandler |
Buf/8 |
Team 5 |
16.11 |
WR73 |
Rueben Randle |
NYG/11 |
Team 4 |
16.12 |
TE26 |
Zach Miller |
Sea/11 |
Team 3 |
16.13 |
RB68 |
Robert Turbin |
Sea/11 |
Team 2 |
16.14 |
WR74 |
Leonard Hankerson |
Was/10 |
Team 1 |
17.01 |
PK12 |
Billy Cundiff |
Bal/8 |
Team 1 |
17.02 |
TE27 |
Anthony Fasano |
Mia/7 |
Team 2 |
17.03 |
PK13 |
Jason Hanson |
Det/5 |
Team 3 |
17.04 |
RB69 |
Dion Lewis |
Phi/7 |
Team 4 |
17.05 |
QB27 |
Brandon Weeden |
Cle/10 |
Team 5 |
17.06 |
DEF17 |
Minnesota |
Min/11 |
Team 6 |
17.07 |
WR75 |
Kevin Walter |
Hou/8 |
Team 7 |
17.08 |
TE30 |
Kellen Winslow |
Sea/11 |
Draft Study Team |
17.09 |
WR76 |
Harry Douglas |
Atl/7 |
Team 9 |
17.10 |
WR77 |
Donald Jones |
Buf/8 |
Team 10 |
17.11 |
PK14 |
Mike Nugent |
Cin/8 |
Team 11 |
17.12 |
PK15 |
Shaun Suisham |
Pit/4 |
Team 12 |
17.13 |
PK16 |
Neil Rackers |
Was/10 |
Team 13 |
17.14 |
PK17 |
Rob Bironas |
Ten/11 |
Team 14 |
18.01 |
WR79 |
Lestar Jean |
Hou/8 |
Team 14 |
18.02 |
PK18 |
Josh Brown |
NYJ/9 |
Team 13 |
18.03 |
WR80 |
Mohamed Sanu |
Cin/8 |
Team 12 |
18.04 |
WR81 |
Danny Amendola |
StL/9 |
Team 11 |
18.05 |
PK19 |
Matt Prater |
Den/7 |
Team 10 |
18.06 |
DEF18 |
Denver |
Den/7 |
Team 9 |
18.07 |
PK20 |
Robbie Gould |
Chi/6 |
Draft Study Team |
18.08 |
WR82 |
Jonathan Baldwin |
KC/7 |
Team 7 |
18.09 |
WR83 |
Early Doucet |
Ari/10 |
Team 6 |
18.10 |
DEF19 |
Houston |
Hou/8 |
Team 5 |
18.11 |
PK21 |
Justin Medlock |
Car/6 |
Team 4 |
18.12 |
PK22 |
Lawrence Tynes |
NYG/11 |
Team 3 |
18.13 |
WR84 |
Mohamed Massaquoi |
Cle/10 |
Team 2 |
18.14 |
RB70 |
Brandon Jacobs |
SF/9 |
Team 1 |
Breaking down the mock draft from the 8th draft position
Round 1: RB Chris Johnson
Two excellent running backs are available here in Chris Johnson and Matt Forte so it is a decision between the two. I took Matt Forte in the example above so here I will roll with Chris Johnson. Both have elite fantasy potential however if they stay healthy. Johnson has less competition in the backfield (Forte has Michael Bush) so I think in a real draft I would go with Chris Johnson anyway. With both Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers off the board the only other player to really consider is TE Jimmy Graham but 8th overall is just too early to pull the trigger on that.
Rounds 2: WR Andre Johnson
I always find there are more possible options when you have picks in the middle of the draft. That is due to less waiting between picks and more likelihood of players / positions dropping. Here is an example in round two. I have a choice between strong receivers, decent running backs (Adrian Peterson, Fred Jackson) and even quarterbacks like Cam Newton. I am very tempted to go Peterson here because if he is healthy he is a strong RB1 for the team and he teams up with Johnson to possibly be a dominating fantasy backfield. However he has some risk so I decide to take Andre Johnson who has the potential to lead the league when healthy.
Rounds 3: WR Wes Welker
This is a choice between WR Wes Welker, TE Aaron Hernandez and RB Reggie Bush and I strong case can be made for all three. It comes down to the guarantee of production for Welker. Hernandez has Rob Gronkowski to compete with for touches and defenses may catch up to the surprise Patriots TE dominance last year and Reggie Bush has two young running backs competing for touches this season (Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas). Welker is almost a lock for 100+ receptions, 1100+ yards and that is outstanding production for my WR2.
Round 4: RB Frank Gore
The only other player I consider here is TE Antonio Gates whom I believe is going to have a great season and represents value here in my opinion. I am tempted to pull the trigger on him here but I see more tight ends I like in the rounds coming up than running backs and I am in need of a RB2 so I scoop up Gore whose production should eclipse his draft position. He is an older player now but should have another good season in him and as my RB2, he will be a value pick.
Rounds 5: WR Eric Decker
This is a choice between receiver and quarterback. However there are multiple quarterbacks that I still like on the board here and decide to grab my WR3 while the talent is still high. There is one player in this pack of very good receivers that I like the most and it is an easy choice to scoop up Decker. He could have 90+ receptions and 10 touchdowns this season. I like him that much teamed with Peyton Manning and his addition makes my trio of receivers outstanding and amongst the best in the league, if not the best. After five rounds I have five of the seven starting positions locked up at RB/WR/TE and simply need a good starting tight end and a FLEX player to be in great shape.
Rounds 6: RB Steven Ridley
I expect to go TE/QB in the next two rounds here but I am thrown a curve ball as I love the potential of one of the running backs available here. Ridley has top-12 potential in my opinion and his upside and potential make him a must select here. He becomes my FLEX player but I will be looking to grab Shane Vereen later on as one of these two players is going to emerge with lots of production in New England.
Round 7: QB Peyton Manning
There are about fifteen quarterbacks that I feel will put up great fantasy statistics this year and many of them are capable of a top-five finish if the cards fall the right way. Peyton Manning is one of those players. He has a lot to prove this year and a focused, determined Manning will be tough to stop. He has plenty of weapons on offense and this will be an explosive offense in 2012.
Rounds 8: WR Anquan Boldin
I expect to go tight end here but there are still several tight ends that I like available and I don't really care which one I land here. Boldin is a great fantasy points per game played producer and is really nice value in the eighth round of a draft. He will be a good bye week / FLEX option for my team and I am happy to land him here. He is easily my favorite receiver that will be taken in the next round or two.
Rounds 9: TE Jermaine Gresham
I almost decide to wait on the tight end position one more round with a few players I would love on my roster. Nobody leaps out at me here though as must draft at another position though so I decide to lock my starting tight end in. Gresham has top-five potential and should see open field with defenses focusing on talented youngster A.J. Green.
At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this...
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning
Running Backs
Chris Johnson Frank Gore Steven Ridley
Wide Receivers
Andre Johnson Wes Welker Eric Decker Anquan Boldin
Tight Ends
Jermaine Gresham
Place Kickers
none
Defenses
none
I am in very good shape after the nine picks. I have my starting eight in place with a quarterback, tight end and six capable running backs and receivers to start each week. I have depth at both running back and receiver and every player is likely to contribute in some way. Going forward I would like to secure Shane Vereen as mentioned earlier and then secure a backup quarterback, tight end and some more depth at running back and receiver. All in all, I am very pleased with the squad.
Rounds 10-13: RB Shane Vereen / WR Randy Moss / RB LeGarrette Blount / QB Mark Sanchez
The first part of my wish list comes true as Vereen falls into my lap in the tenth round. I am pretty confident that the bulk of the Patriots fantasy points from running back will come from one of these two players and if one emerges as a go-to back, I think a top-12 performance is likely. Getting a determined Randy Moss as my WR5 is outstanding. He may climb the draft boards if he shows well in preseason but he teams with Boldin to give me an old, yet very strong backup duo for my team. Next the Buccaneers starting running back is not Doug Martin at this time but LeGarrette Blount and no matter who starts he will get a good amount of touches this season. He is a flat out steal in the 12th round. Finally I grab a backup quarterback before they are all gone. If Manning stays healthy, Sanchez will get very little work on my team and if not, I better do well on the waiver wire.
Rounds 14-18: Seahawks defense / WR Roberto Wallace / RB Bernard Pierce / TE Kellen Winslow / K Robbie Gould
As almost always, I will target a defense around the fourteenth round. This will only change if defensive scoring is very high in a fantasy league. I add another receiver I believe has tremendous upside in Roberto Wallace. With Chad Johnson getting his walking papers, there is a chance for Wallace to surprise, and Bernard Pierce is another player with upside. If Ray Rice stays healthy, Pierce will have minimal impact. If injury strikes however, I see Pierce as a 20-carry per game bruiser. I add a backup tight end here and a kicker and the draft is done.
Final Roster (Draft Slot #8)
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning Mark Sanchez
Running Backs
Chris Johnson Frank Gore Steven Ridley Shane Vereen LeGarrette Blount Bernard Pierce
Wide Receivers
Andre Johnson Wes Welker Eric Decker Anquan Boldin Randy Moss Roberto Wallace
Tight Ends
Jermaine Gresham Kellen Winslow
Place Kickers
Robbie Gould
Defenses
Seattle Seahawks
Final thoughts on this roster
I am very pleased with how this roster turned out. My receiving stable is potentially awesome as well as deep and my 5th and 6th receivers have a chance to return to their past glories and be very successful in 2012. Both Moss and Johnson appear to be driven and focused and that will give me both excellent depth as well as trading options later on. I am also pleased at running back with the solid six-spot. My starting pair of Chris Johnson and Frank Gore are very good and I believe I have secured very good production from my RB3 position by landing the Patriots young duo of Vereen and Ridley. Blount is exceptional value as a forgotten man but there are no guarantees rookie Doug Martin gets the bulk of the work this season. Blount may surprise. If I have a regret at running back it is simply that Chris Johnson's backup Javon Ringer didn't fall to the 15th round where I would have scooped him up. I love Peyton Manning for this season but really there are fifteen quarterbacks I would feel comfortable starting this season. I am worried about my QB2 if something does happen to Manning though. I am in good shape at tight end and have a potential top-five gem sitting there in Jermaine Gresham. Finally I am in good shape at both defense and kicker. All in all this squad will compete for the title.
Last thoughts on the 8th draft slot in a 14-team league
I always find there are way more directions to take a draft when drafting in the middle as opposed to either end. There are almost always multiple position possibilities and without the long wait between picks it is easier to determine which players will fall. The downside is it is next to impossible to dictate the direction of a draft and simply must ride the wave each round. As always, do not fall in love with particular players or positions in the first few rounds, instead picking the best value each round. Build a strong, talented foundation and the rest of the roster will take care of itself.
Good luck and happy drafting. Thanks for reading.

