There are numerous factors to consider when projecting players for the upcoming season. The players talent, durability and age certainly come into play as does competition for touches, offensive schemes and team philosophies. One of the often overlooked factors is year-by-year consistency in regards to fantasy points. Has the player elevated his play over the years; started high only to falter year after year; or has the player been a Yo-Yo, fantasy gold one season and fantasy disaster the next.

The following chart is just a simple, color-coded chart to quickly look at how consistent a player has been year to year. It is easier to spot trends sometimes when simply looking at a color-coded chart. The ultimate player would have his first season at 300+ fantasy points and be colored in gray in each of the next few seasons. That would be consistently high fantasy production. Another plus would be to see yellow and blue throughout the years, showcasing a consistent improvement in play. On the flip side, seeing orange and green in this study is a reason to be caution about the player in question as perhaps his high-water season was more of a fluke than something to be expected every year.

Some Tidbits from the Chart

Adrian Peterson has of course been a very good fantasy producer over his career although more so in non-PPR leagues as he really does not catch enough passes to be an elite fantasy option in PPR-leagues. He has seen his fantasy points drop by 60+ in the past two seasons and maybe his intense, never stop running style is catching up to him. Something to be aware of going forward.

Something you don't see very often: Arian Foster finished with over 300 fantasy points last year and still dropped by the highest level (85.6 point drop).

The good news: Bernard Scott has been consistent in all three years. The bad news: He has been consistently awful in terms of fantasy production.

Brandon Jacobs has seen his fantasy points drop in four consecutive seasons but it has been a slow erosion with slight changes each year. Consistently getting worse is not the direction players wish to be headed however and a four year trend is tough to ignore.

Chris Johnson's top season (2009) is 120 points higher than his other three years. Those three years are within 50 points of each other so perhaps that is where his projections belong in the 220 to 280 point range.

Darren McFadden's top season is 137 points better than the other three. Less than 50 fantasy points separate the other three years.

Last year Darren Sproles put up 92 points more than the previous three years. Those three years were within 28 points of each other (142 to 171).

DeAngelo Williams top season in last five years is 150 points better than the second-best performance. Aside from the injury plagued 2009 season, his other three years range from 142 to 206 fantasy points.

Fred Jackson has been remarkably consistent over three years with just 31 points separating all three seasons.

Jonathan Stewart's fantasy production has ranged from 113 to 211 fantasy points but has been up and down with no consistency over that time so who knows which player will show up in 2012.

LeSean McCoy's fantasy production has skyrocketed over the three years. Touchdowns have gone from 4 to 9 to 20 and that last number is unlikely to be matched in 2012 and a drop is likely. He will still be a great fantasy option however.

Marshawn Lynch's 2007, 2008 and 2011 seasons are within 50 points of each other.

Matt Forte has been very consistent over his four seasons (within 80 points).

Maurice Jones-Drew has been consistent for five years. The only thing that changed over that time was touchdowns per season.

Michael Bush's fantasy points have improved in four straight seasons.

In the three seasons he has stayed healthy, Michael Turner's production is within 45 points. The issue is he has been hurt in two of the five years.

Pierre Thomas has had two seasons with less than 90 points but his other three seasons have been from 185 to 197 fantasy points.

Considering his high fantasy worth, Ray Rice has been very consistent over three seasons (276 to 376 fantasy points).

Reggie Bush has been very consistent over four years with his fantasy points ranging from 166 to 231 points (discounting his forgettable 2010 campaign).

The top running back for consistency in this study is without question Steven Jackson. His fantasy points over five years range from 206 to 248.

Chart Legend

Fantasy points based on 1 point every 10 rushing yards, 1 point every 10 receiving yards, 1 pt per reception, and 6 points per touchdown

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