Every year leading up to draft season, there are players described as "safe" or as "players with high floors." There are others who are more risky, "high-ceiling" players. Many people single themselves or their league-mates out as the risk-averse type or as the gambling type. The risk-averse group will say that they take fliers in late rounds, but everyone does that. If we truly knew what we were getting from guys picked after the 10th round, they'd be getting picked higher (or not at all).

For the purposes of this exercise, we'll be picking 5th in a 12-team standard league snake draft. We'll look at players whose Consensus ADP's (average of all five fields on the FBG ADP page last updated on 8/20) are within a reasonable number slots of our pick. At the end, we'll have two teams from which we'll pick the best mix of players (one per round obviously).

First of all, this strategy will keep your opponents guessing. Secondly, having some high-floor players will keep your team competitive when your "boom or bust" guys don't boom. I believe a championship team can't just have safe players though. Whether it be drafting or acquiring through the waiver wire, every successful fantasy team has players that can win them a week almost on their own.

Players highlighted in GREEN are "high floor, low ceiling" players while players highlighted in PURPLE are "high ceiling but potentially low floor" guys. Please keep in mind that having Ray Rice as a GREEN player doesn't mean I think his ceiling is lower than Ryan Mathews because Mathews is a PURPLE player. The designations are simply given relative to other players in the same round. The italicized players are the actual selections used.

Rounds 1-3

It's hard to say anyone in Round 1 is without a high floor. But a truly conservative owner may just go for as sure of a thing as possible, and Brady certainly fits that bill. A player who is more willing to take risks looks at McFadden and sees a player who is a top-three RB when he plays.

Rounds 2 and 3 begin to get interesting as there are multiple high floor players but also multiple guys who could win his owners a matchup in any given week with Julio Jones and Ryan Mathews. Jones is a physical beast who could go for 150 yards and two touchdowns multiple times throughout the season.

Mathews is a player who was being considered a top-five overall pick before breaking his collarbone in the first preseason game. A risky owner would pick Mathews for that top-five talent – and not be dissuaded by the one or two games he might miss early. The conservative player, though, makes sure to snag his second running back in Fred Jackson – a guy who will provide consistency.

Rounds 4-6

Round 4 is where the teams really begin to reach a pivotal point. As you can see, in the portion around our draft position, almost every player fits one of these teams. Marques Colston leads the charge for our safe team. You know what you're getting with him. Doug Martin, Percy Harvin, and Demaryius Thomas all represent players whose paths to fantasy stardom don't have many impediments along the way. This owner chose Harvin, though, because of the ability to break a game wide open any time he touches the ball and the many ways in which he gets that opportunity.

In Round 5, Brandon Lloyd jumped off the page as the player who the gambling fantasy owner would grab. He's one of many weapons in the New England offense, but his reunion with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels gives many owners a memory of 2010 – when Lloyd was the top receiver in all of fantasy-land. Safety First believes that tight end is a more predictable position, so he grabs Hernandez – who is either third or fourth at the position on nearly everyone's list.

Round 6 sees our first potential "reach" when The Risk Takers grab Peyton Hillis. He's healthy again this year; he's reunited with former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll; and he's on a team that wants to run the ball 500 times this season. On the other side, Eric Decker won't break a game open, but he'll catch a lot of passes and could end up being Peyton Manning's security blanket – a solid #2 WR.

Let's look at the rosters through six rounds:

And now, back to drafting.

Rounds 7-9

The Risk Takers are going for broke with Robert Griffin III. Even if Griffin ends the year as the #8 QB, this pick represents tremendous value. His best tools – deep accuracy and athleticism – could lead him to a higher finish than that.

The Risk Takers also waited on a tight end, but Brandon Pettigrew was still available in Round 8. He's going as TE9, but on a pass-first offense, he has a top-five ceiling. Kenny Britt may seem too risky for Safety First, but he's less risky when you consider he represents the team's #4 WR.

In Round 9, Michael Bush is a high-upside backup but also fits the bill of a backup on a safe owner's team due to his goal line presence and the 10-15 touches per game he'll get. The Risk Takers have been shooting for the moon all draft long, so why would they stop here? Darrius Heyward-Bey has a huge ceiling.

Rounds 10-12

Take note that Safety First has zero highlighted players in Round 11 but two in Round 12. This owner needed a running back and liked what Pierre Thomas had to offer over Jahvid Best (who isn't even practicing yet) and Jacquizz Rodgers. The Risk Takers continue to go for broke with Randy Moss and Jacquizz Rodgers – two sleepers on the opposite ends of the age spectrum. They also grab Ryan Fitzpatrick as a committee quarterback in case they were wrong with their expectations of Griffin III.

Here are the current rosters.

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Let's look at the selections made by the two teams on a round-by-round basis so we can more easily build our "super team."

Below, I've highlighted my selections from each round and laid out the "Super Team."

The Super Team

What this team may lack at quarterback, it more than makes up for in unbelievable promise and established talent at the other positions. Even if McFadden suffers another injury, starting Jackson, Hillis, and either Bush or Rodgers at flex is still quite strong. The depth at running back here also provides some trade possibilities to upgrade the quarterback position during the course of the season.

If I could draft a team with a top-five RB, a top-four WR, and a top-three TE as my every-week-no-matter-what starters, I'd be happy. If that team also had a top-15 RB and two additional top-20 WRs, I'd be thrilled. The bench is filled with proven talents (Moore), sleepers with upside (Rodgers), and guys who offer both (Britt and Bush).

Summary

I'd recommend doing an exercise like this – and/or one of the many, many others provided by the Footballguys staff in the past few weeks – before your draft. Get to know your opponents and what rankings lists they prefer, grab an ADP list (there's one sortable and customizable by multiple sources available here on the site), and perform this exercise for your draft slot. If you're 5th or close to it, I already did it for you. If you're not, pick an acceptable range such as one or two slots either way around your pick and determine the range of players that will most likely be available to you.

While many things change during a draft, you'll find that most of your preparation will help you. For instance, there will inevitably be more than one player you like in a certain round. Should the one you don't pick slide, you'll definitely know who to pick at a great value in the next round. Preparation leads to domination!

Please ask questions or send comments to me by email at hester@footballguys.com.