Strength of Schedule - Team Defense
By Clayton Gray
August 2nd, 2012

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy Points Driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.
     
  • Removed Bias Of Schedule
    Consider the following scenario: Defense A faced the Top 16 offenses while Defense B faced the Worst 16 offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing QBs to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not; Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.
     
  • Positional Breakdown
    If you are looking for a RB, it's much more relevant to see SOS data for RBs (rather than simply rushing data).
     
  • Comparison Of 2012 Schedule To 2011 Schedule
    On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at RB should see better RB stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers as the year before. USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season. An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this season points to decreased production.
  • Explanation of USOS Tables

    Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

    The "Team" Column

    This is simply the NFL team.

    The Values

    Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

    The "2012" Column

    This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team's opponents for this season.

    The "Chng" Column

    This is the amount of change between the 2012 schedule and the 2011 schedule. A positive value points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult SOS compared to last season.

    The "EZ" Column

    This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

    The "TF" Column

    This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

    The "1st3" Column

    This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

    The "1st5" Column

    This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

    The "Byes" Column

    This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value is useful to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

    The "14to16" Column

    This is similar to "1st3" except that it specifically covers Week 14 through Week 16.

    The "15to17" Column

    This is similar to "14to16" except that it specifically covers Week 15 through Week 17.

    The "W1" through "W17" Columns

    These values are the expected strength of each team's opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

    The Coloring of the Values

    The green values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Green was chosen because you can go ahead and take players on that team. The yellow values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Yellow was chosen because you should use caution before selecting players from that team. (Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

  • Green is a hot team with a good schedule
  • Yellow is a cold team with a bad schedule
  • Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Team Defenses

    Team
    2012
    Chng
    EZ
    TF
    1st3
    1st5
    Byes
    14to16
    15to17
    Arizona
    16.9
    0.7%
    4
    4
    16.7
    17.2
    16.5
    17.5
    16.3
    Atlanta
    17.0
    0.8%
    5
    3
    17.1
    16.9
    17.0
    16.7
    17.3
    Baltimore
    16.5
    0.8%
    2
    5
    16.0
    15.9
    16.5
    16.8
    16.5
    Buffalo
    16.9
    0.5%
    5
    6
    17.1
    16.1
    15.9
    17.8
    18.0
    Carolina
    16.9
    0.6%
    4
    3
    16.5
    16.7
    17.3
    17.3
    16.8
    Chicago
    16.9
    -2.0%
    5
    5
    17.1
    17.0
    16.2
    17.3
    17.0
    Cincinnati
    16.9
    2.2%
    2
    2
    16.6
    16.8
    16.7
    17.0
    17.3
    Cleveland
    16.8
    1.0%
    3
    3
    16.5
    16.6
    16.8
    16.8
    17.2
    Dallas
    16.7
    -3.3%
    2
    3
    17.3
    17.4
    16.8
    15.8
    16.1
    Denver
    16.6
    -3.2%
    3
    6
    16.4
    16.4
    16.5
    17.1
    16.4
    Detroit
    16.9
    -1.0%
    5
    5
    16.2
    16.7
    17.3
    16.6
    17.5
    Green Bay
    17.1
    -0.1%
    5
    4
    16.4
    16.4
    17.2
    17.0
    17.2
    Houston
    17.1
    5.8%
    6
    4
    17.4
    17.5
    17.0
    17.0
    17.9
    Indianapolis
    16.6
    0.9%
    2
    7
    17.6
    17.0
    16.5
    15.9
    15.9
    Jacksonville
    16.8
    3.7%
    6
    7
    17.3
    17.0
    16.7
    17.2
    16.0
    Kansas City
    17.1
    0.3%
    6
    2
    16.0
    16.6
    17.3
    17.3
    17.9
    Miami
    16.9
    -0.6%
    6
    6
    17.8
    17.5
    17.5
    15.9
    16.2
    Minnesota
    16.9
    -2.6%
    4
    5
    16.3
    16.4
    17.4
    17.4
    16.5
    New England
    17.3
    4.2%
    6
    3
    17.3
    17.3
    17.8
    15.7
    16.0
    New Orleans
    16.7
    -0.8%
    4
    3
    16.3
    16.3
    17.3
    17.0
    17.2
    NY Giants
    16.4
    -3.9%
    1
    4
    17.2
    17.0
    16.1
    16.2
    17.0
    NY Jets
    16.7
    -1.6%
    2
    4
    16.9
    16.1
    16.6
    16.8
    16.7
    Oakland
    16.8
    -1.4%
    3
    4
    17.2
    17.4
    16.9
    16.9
    16.7
    Philadelphia
    16.6
    -2.8%
    2
    2
    17.3
    17.0
    16.4
    16.8
    16.0
    Pittsburgh
    16.8
    0.2%
    3
    5
    18.5
    18.2
    16.3
    16.5
    16.0
    San Diego
    17.0
    -2.4%
    6
    5
    16.7
    16.2
    16.8
    17.7
    18.1
    San Francisco
    17.3
    3.3%
    6
    3
    16.8
    17.3
    17.8
    16.6
    17.1
    Seattle
    17.0
    0.8%
    6
    4
    16.7
    17.1
    17.1
    16.4
    16.4
    St. Louis
    17.0
    -0.4%
    5
    4
    17.2
    17.5
    16.7
    17.8
    18.1
    Tampa Bay
    16.8
    -0.6%
    4
    3
    16.4
    16.4
    16.8
    17.0
    16.7
    Tennessee
    17.0
    3.9%
    4
    4
    16.6
    16.8
    17.2
    17.4
    17.1
    Washington
    16.8
    -1.7%
    3
    2
    16.4
    16.8
    17.2
    16.9
    16.6
    Average
    16.9
    0%
    4
    4
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9

    Week-By-Week Look

    Team
    W1
    W2
    W3
    W4
    W5
    W6
    W7
    W8
    W9
    Arizona
    17.6
    15.0
    17.4
    17.1
    18.7
    16.6
    18.2
    14.0
    14.9
    Atlanta
    15.8
    18.1
    17.5
    16.8
    16.5
    18.0
    -
    17.4
    16.4
    Baltimore
    15.4
    17.4
    15.0
    16.0
    15.8
    16.4
    15.9
    -
    16.0
    Buffalo
    19.4
    15.8
    16.0
    15.0
    14.0
    18.7
    15.9
    -
    15.9
    Carolina
    18.5
    15.0
    15.9
    16.3
    17.6
    -
    16.4
    17.6
    16.5
    Chicago
    17.7
    14.9
    18.7
    16.4
    17.0
    -
    17.3
    16.8
    15.9
    Cincinnati
    17.3
    16.0
    16.5
    17.0
    17.1
    16.0
    17.0
    -
    18.1
    Cleveland
    17.4
    15.4
    16.6
    17.3
    15.9
    15.4
    17.7
    17.5
    17.3
    Dallas
    15.9
    17.6
    18.5
    17.6
    -
    17.3
    16.8
    15.9
    16.3
    Denver
    17.0
    16.3
    15.9
    18.0
    15.0
    17.5
    -
    15.0
    15.4
    Detroit
    18.7
    14.0
    15.9
    18.2
    -
    17.4
    17.6
    17.6
    17.0
    Green Bay
    14.0
    17.6
    17.6
    15.0
    17.7
    15.9
    18.7
    17.0
    18.7
    Houston
    17.1
    17.0
    18.1
    15.9
    19.4
    14.9
    17.3
    -
    16.6
    Indianapolis
    17.6
    18.2
    17.0
    -
    14.9
    19.4
    16.0
    15.9
    17.1
    Jacksonville
    18.2
    15.9
    17.7
    15.4
    17.6
    -
    18.0
    14.9
    17.3
    Kansas City
    16.3
    16.6
    15.0
    17.5
    17.3
    18.5
    -
    18.0
    17.5
    Miami
    15.9
    18.0
    19.4
    18.7
    15.4
    18.7
    -
    19.4
    17.7
    Minnesota
    17.0
    17.7
    14.0
    17.3
    15.9
    16.5
    18.7
    18.5
    17.6
    New England
    15.9
    18.7
    17.3
    16.6
    18.1
    17.6
    19.4
    18.7
    -
    New Orleans
    16.5
    16.8
    15.8
    14.9
    17.5
    -
    18.5
    18.1
    17.4
    NY Giants
    16.4
    18.5
    16.8
    17.4
    16.0
    14.0
    16.5
    16.4
    17.0
    NY Jets
    16.6
    17.0
    17.1
    14.0
    15.9
    17.7
    15.0
    17.1
    -
    Oakland
    17.5
    17.1
    17.0
    18.1
    -
    16.3
    17.0
    15.8
    18.5
    Philadelphia
    16.0
    17.3
    18.7
    15.9
    17.0
    17.3
    -
    16.3
    15.0
    Pittsburgh
    18.1
    19.4
    18.0
    -
    17.4
    15.9
    15.4
    16.5
    15.9
    San Diego
    18.0
    15.9
    16.3
    15.8
    15.0
    18.1
    -
    16.0
    15.8
    San Francisco
    14.9
    17.3
    18.2
    19.4
    16.6
    15.9
    17.6
    18.7
    -
    Seattle
    18.7
    16.4
    14.9
    18.7
    16.8
    15.0
    14.0
    17.3
    18.2
    St. Louis
    17.3
    16.5
    17.6
    17.6
    18.7
    17.1
    14.9
    15.0
    -
    Tampa Bay
    16.8
    15.9
    16.4
    16.5
    -
    15.8
    15.0
    18.2
    18.0
    Tennessee
    15.0
    17.5
    17.3
    15.9
    18.2
    17.0
    16.6
    17.7
    17.6
    Washington
    15.0
    18.7
    15.4
    18.5
    16.3
    18.2
    15.9
    17.0
    16.8
    Average
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9
    16.8
    16.8
    16.9
    16.8
    16.9
    16.9

     

    Team
    W10
    W11
    W12
    W13
    W14
    W15
    W16
    W17
    Arizona
    -
    16.3
    18.7
    19.4
    17.6
    17.3
    17.6
    14.0
    Atlanta
    15.0
    18.7
    18.5
    15.0
    16.8
    15.9
    17.3
    18.5
    Baltimore
    18.0
    17.0
    17.5
    17.0
    16.5
    18.1
    15.9
    15.4
    Buffalo
    15.0
    17.1
    17.7
    17.0
    18.7
    17.6
    17.1
    19.4
    Carolina
    18.1
    18.5
    17.4
    15.8
    16.3
    17.5
    18.0
    15.0
    Chicago
    15.9
    14.0
    18.2
    17.6
    18.2
    14.9
    18.7
    17.3
    Cincinnati
    15.9
    15.8
    18.0
    17.5
    16.4
    17.4
    17.0
    17.3
    Cleveland
    -
    16.4
    17.0
    18.0
    15.8
    16.5
    18.1
    17.0
    Dallas
    17.4
    16.0
    16.5
    17.4
    15.4
    17.0
    15.0
    16.5
    Denver
    16.8
    17.5
    15.8
    18.5
    18.0
    17.3
    16.0
    15.8
    Detroit
    18.2
    14.9
    15.9
    17.7
    14.9
    18.7
    16.3
    17.6
    Green Bay
    -
    17.3
    15.9
    18.2
    17.3
    17.6
    15.9
    18.2
    Houston
    17.6
    17.0
    17.3
    15.9
    15.0
    17.7
    18.2
    17.7
    Indianapolis
    17.0
    15.0
    16.6
    17.3
    15.9
    15.9
    15.8
    15.9
    Jacksonville
    17.7
    15.9
    15.9
    16.6
    19.4
    17.1
    15.0
    15.9
    Kansas City
    17.0
    15.4
    18.1
    16.8
    16.0
    18.0
    17.7
    18.1
    Miami
    15.9
    16.6
    17.6
    15.0
    14.0
    17.0
    16.6
    15.0
    Minnesota
    17.3
    -
    17.6
    14.9
    17.6
    18.7
    15.9
    14.9
    New England
    16.6
    17.7
    19.4
    17.1
    15.9
    14.0
    17.0
    17.1
    New Orleans
    16.3
    18.0
    14.0
    16.3
    15.9
    18.5
    16.4
    16.8
    NY Giants
    15.4
    -
    14.9
    16.5
    15.0
    16.3
    17.3
    17.4
    NY Jets
    17.6
    18.7
    15.0
    18.7
    17.0
    15.9
    17.5
    16.6
    Oakland
    17.3
    15.0
    15.4
    16.0
    18.1
    15.8
    16.8
    17.5
    Philadelphia
    16.4
    16.5
    16.8
    16.4
    18.5
    15.4
    16.5
    15.9
    Pittsburgh
    15.8
    17.3
    16.0
    17.3
    17.5
    16.4
    15.4
    16.0
    San Diego
    18.5
    18.1
    17.3
    15.4
    17.0
    16.8
    19.4
    18.0
    San Francisco
    18.7
    17.6
    15.0
    18.7
    17.1
    15.0
    17.6
    18.7
    Seattle
    19.4
    -
    17.1
    17.6
    18.7
    16.6
    14.0
    18.7
    St. Louis
    14.0
    19.4
    18.7
    14.0
    16.6
    18.2
    18.5
    17.6
    Tampa Bay
    17.5
    16.8
    16.3
    18.1
    17.4
    15.0
    18.7
    16.3
    Tennessee
    17.1
    -
    17.0
    15.9
    17.7
    19.4
    14.9
    17.0
    Washington
    -
    17.4
    16.4
    15.9
    17.3
    16.0
    17.4
    16.4
    Average
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9
    16.9
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