FanDuel Bargain Buys - Week 16
by Heath Cummings
December 20th, 2012

With only two weeks remaining in the 2012 season we're going to continue to take risks, even if it risks putting up a disaster like last week. The nice thing about last week was that if you followed the Best Bang for your Buck, you likely had a nice week. Colin Kaepernick, Knowshon Moreno, and Steven Jackson all far outperformed their cost. In week sixteen there are definitely some bargains out there, let's find them.In case you're new to this article, the Best Bang for your Buck focuses on players that David Dodds has projected to score much higher than their current cost. The FanDuel Bargain Buy digs just a little deeper to find someone under the radar that I personally believe could perform much higher than their current cost. Here are our week sixteen picks.

Quarterback

  • Top Priced Player- Tom Brady at $9,700
  • Average Priced Player- Colin Kaepernick at $7,700
  • Best Bang for your Buck

    Russell Wilson vs. San Francisco (Cost: $7,400) Did you know Wilson is the third highest scoring quarterback in fantasy points since his week 11 bye? We don't think he'll be quite that good against a formidable 49ers defense, but we do think he'll be better than league average. Using his performance in his last game against San Francisco is comparing apples to oranges. For one it was on the road, and more importantly he's a different quarterback now.

    Joe Flacco vs. NY Giants (Cost: $6,800) Flacco has gone the opposite direction as Wilson, but he's also at home this week where he performs much better. We like Flacco as about a league average option this week and that's much higher than where his current cost puts him.

    Fan Duel Bargain Buy

    Sam Bradford vs. Tampa Bay (Cost: $6,900) Everyone knows how bad the Buccaneers defense has been this season, but I feel like until last week a lot of people have been sleeping on Bradford. He's averaged over 18 fantasy points per game in games that Danny Amendola has started, which would be enough to make him a league average quarterback if projected over a full season. I expect a very solid performance against an absolutely terrible secondary.

    Running Back

  • Top Priced Player- Adrian Peterson at $9,700
  • Average Priced Player- Chris Johnson at $7,100
  • Best Bang for your Buck

    Knowshon Moreno vs. Cleveland (Cost: $6,600)This is another case of FanDuel's values being a little slow to catch up to the performance of a late blooming fantasy star. Yes, I said star. In four weeks since taking over for Willis McGahee, Moreno has been a solid RB1, and this week he gets a Cleveland defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league against the run. Look for a lot of Moreno after the Broncos build a sizeable lead and look to protect Peyton Manning for the playoffs.

    Steven Jackson vs. Tampa Bay (Cost: $6,800) This one is a little confusing if you just look at the match up and tells you a lot about the value available at the running back position this week. Still, Jackson's recent success can't be overlooked. After looking like he was losing his grip on the starting job to Daryl Richardson, Jackson has posted top-5 numbers since week 10. Tampa Bay had the air taken out of their sails last week and could be primed for a letdown.

    Fan Duel Bargain Buy

    Vick Ballard vs. Kansas City (Cost: $5,800) It's pretty rare that you'll find a running back coming off a 100 yard performance against a top-5 defense for below $6,000 but that's what we have this week in Ballard. The game script will have a big impact on his numbers, but it's hard to see a scenario where Kansas City keeps this close enough to keep the Colts passing.

    Wide Receiver

  • Top Priced Player- Calvin Johnson at $8,600
  • Average Priced Players- Four players at $6,500
  • Best Bang for your Buck

    Cecil Shorts vs. New England (Cost: $6,400) Shorts has posted double-digit fantasy points in every game he's played since week ten and it's hard to see the Patriots getting in the way of that streak. This is a perfect storm of game script and match up. The Patriots have very little chance of containing Shorts and the Jaguars have an even worse chance of keeping this one close.

    Danny Amendola vs. Tampa Bay (Cost: $6,200) Mostly you just need to read the section above under Sam Bradford. Amendola is his go-to guy and Tampa bay is all too willing a participant. Amendola has been held below five receptions just twice this season, and one of those games he left early with an injury. We have him as our 12th best receiver in week 16.

    Fan Duel Bargain Buy

    Pierre Garcon vs. Philadelphia (Cost: $6,000) Garcon is probably making a lot of fantasy owners sick with his late season success, and it doesn't figure to stop this week against the Eagles. He's done everything we'd hoped he would since fully recovering from his injury and if Robert Griffin III returns this week he may do even more against a secondary that's become known for its coverage breakdowns.

    Tight End

  • Top Priced Player- Rob Gronkowski at $7,300
  • Average Priced Players- Five players at $5,200
  • Fan Duel Bargain Buy

    Vernon Davis vs. Seattle (Cost: $5,000) I said it a few weeks ago with Jermichael Finley, and I'll say it again this week. Sometimes a player slumps so badly that, given his talent, you just know he's about ready to outperform expectations. This week that player is Davis. The Seahawks secondary will have all the tape on the improvements of Michael Crabtree and regression of Davis since Colin Kaepernick took over. I expect those trends to reverse this week.

    Defense

    Indianapolis vs. Kansas City (Cost: $5,100) I heard a lot of people speculating that the Colts' defense would be the play if Ricky Stanzi got the call this week and it was a little bit baffling. Stanzi isn't starting this week, but could they really be any more generous than they've been with Brady Quinn? Outside of an emotional victory over Carolina, the Chiefs have combined for 35 total points in their last five games.

    Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to cummings@footballguys.com.

    © 2012 Footballguys - All Rights Reserved