Cracking FanDuel - Week 16
by David Dodds
December 22nd, 2012

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will appear on Saturdays and never include the early Thursday games. I am publishing it late in the week because I think my projections/thoughts are much more refined by the time the games play (Injury situations are much clearer for example)

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position

  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the Fantasy column. I have highlighted (in yellow) the top 8 QBs, 16 RBs, 24 WRs, 8 TEs, 8 Defs and 8 PKs within this column

  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 15 Price

  • The Price per FP column reflects the cost per projected fantasy point (the lower the value the better). I have highlighted (in yellow) the best values for 8 QBs, 16 RBs, 24 WRs, 8 TEs, 8 Defs and 8 PKs within this column

  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buch at their respective positions.
  • Here is a helpful link to show you how to use matchup data to search for players that could get a big boost by playing the worst defenses so far this season. Looking over this data table, you should be able to spot the REALLY BAD defenses:

    Bad Rush Defense (last 4 weeks):
  • Arizona Cardinals have allowed 180 yards and 1.2 TDs. Matt Forte could be in for a huge week.

  • Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed 172 yards and 1.0 TDs. Steven Ridley could be in for a big day.
  • Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 154 yards and 0.5 TDs. Vick Ballard looks to be a decent value play at $5,800

  • Bad Pass Defense (last 4 weeks):
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed 321 yards and 2.5 TDs. This could be exactly the kind of matchup to get the Rams offense on track.

  • Houston Texans have allowed 308 yards and 2.2 TDs. Can Minnesota take advantage of this?

  • Washington Redskins have allowed 287 yards and 2.0 TDs through the air. Can Nick Foles and Jeremy Maclin have big games with such a juicy matchup?

  • Dallas Cowboys have allowed 277 yards and 2.0 TDs through the air. The Saints love to pass and are likely going to looking to get Brees to 5,000 passing yards for the season. This game could also be a giant shootout.
  • No Brainers of the Week (Great Value / Cheap Cost)

    RB Vick Ballard, Ind (at KC) - $5,800
    RB Knowshon Moreno, Den (vs Cle) - $6,600
    WR Torrey Smith, Bal (vs NYG) - $5,000
    WR Pierre Garcon, Was (at Phi) - $6,000
    TE Jason Witten, Dal (vs NO) - $6,000

    Sample Roster ($55K) - Projected Points = 121.4

  • QB Cam Newton, Car (vs Oak) - $9,300
  • RB Vick Ballard, Den (at KC) - $5,800
  • RB Knowshon Moreno, Den (vs Cle) - $6,600
  • WR Torrey Smith, Bal (vs NYG) - $5,000
  • WR Pierre Garcon, Was (at Phi) - 6,000
  • WR Miles Austin, Dal (vs NO) - 6,000
  • TE Jason Witten, Dal (vs NO) - 6,000
  • PK Mason Crosby, GB (vs Ten) - $5,000
  • Def Green Bay (vs Ten) - $5,100
  • Sample Roster ($60K) - Projected Points = 133.2

  • QB Cam Newton, Car (vs Oak) - $9,300
  • RB Vick Ballard, Den (at KC) - $5,800
  • RB Knowshon Moreno, Den (vs Cle) - $6,600
  • WR Torrey Smith, Bal (vs NYG) - $5,000
  • WR Brandon Marshall, Chi (at Ari) - 8,200
  • WR A.J. Green, Cin (at Pit) - $7,700
  • TE Aaron Hernandez, NE (at Jax) - $6,800
  • PK Mason Crosby, GB (vs Ten) - $5,000
  • Def Chicago (at Ari) - $5,500
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