The Profit - Week 15
by Michael Brown
December 22nd, 2012

These are just my opinion. If you disagree, feel free to let me know at brown@footballguys.com.

Let's get to the picks!

* I pick four "best bets" and make one of those a "lock" each week. Those are listed at the end.

Atlanta (-4.5) at Detroit
Atlanta is sky high after their crushing win over New York, and Detroit is in a perfect position to simply roll over and die here. I expect both teams to score a lot of points, but that the outcome will never really be in question. Let's call it 34-27 Falcons.

Pick: Falcons

Houston (-7.5) vs. Minnesota
The Peterson aspect alone should be enough to keep this game within reason. I don't see Houston coming in and blowing anybody out, not with the way Adrian is playing these days. You just don't know how nuts he'll go. I mean, he could legitimately run for 900 yards in this game and it wouldn't be THAT shocking.

Pick: Vikings

New England (-14.5) at Jacksonville
Maybe back five or six years ago, you'd be tempted to run with the huge underdog here because offense wasn't so ridiculous. But these days, there are regularly a couple of 45-0 games every week. This one has as good a chance as any to be one of those.

Pick: Patriots

Tampa Bay (-3.5) vs. Saint Louis
Let's face it, nobody knows what to make of the Rams. I'm pretty sure I could be easily convinced that this game is going to be 20-14 Bucs or 35-4 Rams. Doug Martin needs to redeem himself and help his owners (me) who managed to make it to title week without him last week. Do it Doug. Do it.

Pick: Bucs

Pittsburgh (-4.5) vs. Cincinnati
This is probably the most difficult game to pick this week. I've gone back and forth on it the entire 4 minutes it took me to write this article. Pittsburgh always shows up when you least expect them to, and the opposite is true of the Bengals. I can't really see this going any way other than the Steel city coming out on top. It's probably a field goal game, but at this point I'm already 400 games under .500 so let's just start picking winners here.

Pick: Steelers

NY Jets (-3.5) vs. San Diego
Every week, one of us FBG recappers has to cover the games that nobody else wants to watch. Being that I have some seniority and am a Charger fan, this game falls to me. I'm pretty sure there will be more people watching this from my living room than at the actual stadium.

Pick: Chargers

Green Bay (-11.5) vs. Tennessee
I'm not an expert or anything, but I'm pretty sure Green Bay is awesome and the Titans stink.

Pick: Packers

Washington (-5.5) at Philadelphia
Pretty sure the Eagles have just completely given up on the season, and quite possibly their lives. The Skins get their main man back and should roll. I really can't see any reason why this isn't at least a touchdown spread.

Pick: Redskins

Indianapolis (-6.5) at Kansas City
All season long, I've been a big believer that the Colts are not as good as their record and that the Chiefs are not as bad as their record. Let's give this one more shot.

Pick: Chiefs

Carolina (-8.5) vs. Oakland
I know the Panthers are coming off a big victory and played really well a week ago, but this is still the 5-9 last place Panthers right? Ok thought so. This is too much.

Pick: Raiders

Miami (-4.5) vs. Buffalo
Can you imagine someone having something interesting to say about this game? Dolphins win a close one 16-13. Let's just move on.

Pick: Bills

Dallas (-3.5) vs. New Orleans
Dallas is on a roll and very much in the thick of the race for arguably the toughest division in the league. The Saints are very up-and-down, and completely out of the picture. So that's why this line being only 3.5 scares me. Perhaps Vegas knows something about these teams that we don't?

Pick: Saints

Denver (-13.5) vs. Cleveland
This could say Denver (-eleventeen thousand) and I'd take the Broncos. They're just on a mission to make me look even dumber than I do already.

Pick: Broncos

Chicago (-5.5) at Arizona
I honestly can't even guess. I'd love to pretend I have some idea what I'm talking about, but that 44% completion percentage I'm sporting below would say otherwise. And I'd love to try to analyze this as if I had some inkling of how this would go. But these teams are just ridiculous. They don't even know who they are.

Pick: Bears

NY Giants (-2.5) at Baltimore
Oh look it's the preseason Super Bowl contender who then struggled but then looked a lot better and then looked like legit title contenders but then struggled a little bit again and now they're in desperation mode. And they're telling their opponents, "So this is what it feels like…when doves cry".

Pick: Giants

San Francisco (-1.5) at Seattle
So I mean, just wondering what exactly the Seahawks need to do in order to earn some respect here. I get that the Niners just took down the Pats, but the defense certainly looked exposed as less than elite as the Pats fought their way back. And perhaps nobody noticed yet, but the Seahawks haven't lost a home game yet (including wins over Dallas, Green Bay, New England, Chicago, and Minnesota). This is no longer just a "nice story". This is a legit NFC title game contender – especially if they can get teams in their house in the postseason. This is a game that could very well go either way, but Seattle has done enough to earn the benefit of the doubt.

Pick: Seahawks

BEST BETS: Falcons, Chargers, Redskins, Broncos

LOCK: Atlanta Falcons

LAST WEEK'S RECORD

  • Overall: 5-11 (31%)
  • Best Bets: 2-2 (50%)
  • Lock of the Week: 0-1
  • YEAR-TO-DATE RECORD

  • Overall: 99-124-1 (44%)
  • Best Bets: 26-29-1 (47%)
  • Lock of the Week: 6-7-1 (46%)
  • POWER RANKINGS

    Team Name - W/L - (Prv)

    1. Falcons 12-2 (3)
    2. Texans 12-2 (2)
    3. Broncos 11-3 (4)
    4. Niners 10-3-1 (5)
    5. Patriots 10-4 (1)
    6. Packers 10-4 (6)
    7. Ravens 9-5 (7)
    8. Seahawks 9-5 (8)
    9. Steelers 7-7 (9)
    10. Redskins 8-6 (13)
    11. Giants 8-6 (10)
    12. Bears 8-6 (11)
    13. Vikings 8-6 (14)
    14. Cowboys 8-6 (15)
    15. Colts 9-5 (12)
    16. Saints 6-8 (16)
    17. Bengals 8-6 (17)
    18. Bucs 6-8 (18)
    19. Rams 6-7-1 (19)
    20. Jets 6-8 (20)
    21. Panthers 5-9 (22)
    22. Cardinals 5-9 (25)
    23. Chargers 5-9 (21)
    24. Dolphins 6-8 (26)
    25. Titans 5-9 (27)
    26. Eagles 4-10 (23)
    27. Lions 4-10 (24)
    28. Bills 5-9 (28)
    29. Browns 5-9 (29)
    30. Raiders 4-10 (30)
    31. Chiefs 2-12 (31)
    32. Jaguars 2-12 (32)
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