Buy Low / Sell High - Week 16
by Sigmund Bloom
December 20th, 2012

Buy Low

Torrey Smith, WR, BAL - As his late season slide continues and artificially depresses his value, it's time for another reminder to seek the Ravens' future #1 receiver via trades or target him in dynasty startup drafts this offseason.

Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN - It feels like Hillman is a flop because he didn't take over when Willis McGahee got hurt, but he'll have a whole offseason to gain confidence and competence, and he's still the Broncos running back of the future.

Isaac Redman, RB, PIT - I'm happy to keep beating the drum for this underrated back. He has the ability to play all three downs, and the Steelers don't strike me as a franchise that will invest heavy at running back in the draft or free agency, not with their needs on defense. Redman had two outstanding runs last week where he broke multiple tackles. With the number of ailments he has been dealing with, I wonder if he has been 100% at any point this season. The organization generally likes lunchpail guys like Redman. I wouldn't leave him sitting on your waiver wire in shallow bench dynasty leagues.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, CHI - Jeffery had a goose egg last week, but a game with about 100 yards and a score was just a few pass interference calls (for and against Jeffery) away. Teams are going to try to take away Brandon Marshall, and when they do, it looks like Jeffery's size, ball skills, and deceptive speed will hurt opponents. The 2012 rookie wide receiver class has mostly been a flop, but Jeffery could be a 2013 breakout candidate - if he doesn't do it in the last few weeks of 2012.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN - Despite a few flashes of brilliance, Rudolph's 2012 will go down as a disappointing year, but how much of that is on Christian Ponder? One way or the other, the quarterback play in Minnesota will eventually improve, and Rudolph's top notch ball skills will start to rack up catches and touchdowns in the future.

Sell High

Chris Wells, RB, ARI - He has been an effective goal-line runner lately, but that's about it. It could still be enough to wring some value out of him this offseason in a trade.

James Jones, WR, GB - Jones' 2012 campaign will now forever be the stock example of how touchdown totals are so volatile for wide receivers. Jones was more effective this year, but injuries at his position opened the door for this scoring frenzy.

Jason Witten, TE, DAL - Witten looks like he'll remain a good-to-great fantasy tight end for at least another year or two, but his lack of touchdowns is still concerning. Don't just auction him off to the highest bidder, but if you can use him as a stepping stone to a Graham/Hernandez/Gronkowski without destroying the foundation of your team, it's a good idea to try this offseason when their season stats will make them look like commodities of similar value.

LaMichael James, RB, SF - James isn't impressing me in his limited action, and he certainly isn't looking like a runner anywhere near the level of Kendall Hunter. Just the fact that he's a second-round rookie back getting on the field may cause him to draw interest the offseason dynasty trade market.

Offseason Dynasty Stashes

It's December, so it's time to trim the fat from your roster and add as much speculative end of the bench value as you can before other owners realize that the supply of players who could gain value in the offseason and beyond is finite. Each week from now until the end of the season, I'll give my favorite stashes at each of the four core positions. This week - wide receivers and tight ends.

WR Snorkel

Julian Edelman, NE - He didn't stay on the field for long stretches, but he was impressive when he did. If Wes Welker isn't a Patriots in 2013, you'll be glad you have Edelman on your roster.

Mohamed Sanu / Marvin Jones, CIN - This rookie duo has limited upside because of AJ Green's gravitational pull in the passing game, but both look ready to contribute and put up numbers against defenses that are obsessed with taking Green away.

Dwayne Harris, DAL - Harris has looked fast, quick, strong, and elusive while passing Kevin Ogletree to be the Cowboys' #3 receiver this year. If he can secure the role full-time for 2013, he could be the new Laurent Robinson in that offense.

Nick Toon, NO - It's easy to forget that the Saints took Toon in the 4th round this year. His potential to produce in this high-powered pass offense alone makes him worth a stash, along with Joseph Morgan, who I mentioned last week as a buy low add.

Jacoby Ford, OAK - I might be the last one believing in Ford, but he's out of his walking boot and should be ready to go for offseason activities. He has been an explosive playmaker when healthy, even if he has only been healthy for short bursts.

Rod Streater, OAK - Streater seems to be held in higher esteem by the Oakland coaches than Darrius Heyward-Bey or Denarius Moore in Oakland right now.

Jerome Simpson, MIN - Simpson has been a colossal bust in Minnesota, but he was wowing onlookers in the offseason, and he has also been battling back and leg injuries this year. He's worth an end of the bench spot in deep dynasty leagues to see where he lands after the Vikings likely release him.

WR Scuba

LaVon Brazill, IND - Donnie Avery is still inconsistent, and TY Hilton is best suited as a #3 receiver. Don't be surprised if Brazill is competing to start next year.

Johnny Knox, CHI - Who knows if Knox can overcome his serious back injury to play football again, but we know he can be a threat to get behind and around the defense if he does.

Devon Wylie, KC - Wylie looked like a faster Wes Welker at Fresno State, but his injury issues unfortunately kept him from contributing much this season.

Cole Beasley, DAL - In a league that is seeing shifty slot receivers gaining more value every year, a player like Beasley is worth watching in deep dynasty leagues with PPR scoring.

Juron Criner, OAK - As mentioned above, the new regime in Oakland seems to be souring on the old regime's wide receiver picks. Criner is a big receiver with great ball skills who could become the #1 red zone target for the Raiders soon.

WR Submarine

Greg Salas, PHI - I loved Salas at Hawaii as a cross between a quick slot receiver and a good downfield receiver. The Rams and the Patriots decided he wasn't part of their future plans, but the Eagles made sure to claim him when they got a chance. I'm not giving up on him after only two years.

Jarrett Boykin, GB - The Packers let two decent developmental wide receiver prospects - Diondre Borel and Tori Gurley - go to keep Boykin. They must see something in him.

LaRon Byrd, ARI - Byrd is big, with a smooth stride that disguises his speed. If Michael Floyd ends up being a bust, Byrd could swoop in for the opportunity.

Jeff Fuller, MIA - He's been hanging out on the practice squad all year, but Fuller has the connection to quarterback Ryan Tannehill and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman via their time together at Texas A&M, and there's plenty of openings in the Miami WR corps.

Jeremy Ebert, NE - Ebert has been in the incubator of the Patriots practice squad, but he projects as a slot receiver, which could mean that he'll be in the mix for 2013 playing time if Welker leaves.

Danny Coale, DAL - I was a big fan of Coale at Virginia Tech and thought the poor quality of the passing game hid his real talent. He was shifted to the practice squad and tore his ACL, but I'm not writing him off yet.

Dale Moss, CHI - Moss has freakish speed and ups, but he was just one year removed from focusing on basketball when he entered the draft.

Patrick Edwards, DET - Edwards is small, but his quick and speedy game could fit right in the hole left by Titus Young while Ryan Broyles is rehabbing from his second ACL tear.

TE Snorkel

Ladarius Green, SD - The end of the line is coming for Antonio Gates, so Green will get his shot soon.

Jordan Cameron, CLE - Cameron's game is coming along after he came out of USC very raw because he was primarily a basketball player.

Delanie Walker, SF/FA - Walker is a poor man's Shannon Sharpe. If he lands in the right offense in free agency, he could be a surprise in 2013.

Taylor Thompson, TEN - Thompson has a Rob Gronkowski-esque combination of size, strength, and natural ball skills. He was a defensive end in college, so he is still in the very early stages of development.

Adrien Robinson, NYG - When Jerry Reese calls a prospect the "Jason Pierre-Paul of tight ends", I listen. Martellus Bennett is only on a one-year contract.

Evan Rodriguez, CHI - Kellen Davis is a bust as a receiver, so the door is open for the 2012 fourth round pick to become the primary receiving tight end for the Bears.

TE Scuba

James Casey, HOU - Casey's value was destroyed by a shift to RB in most league software programs, but if he gets back to a tight end designation, his value will return in deep dynasty leagues.

Julius Thomas, DEN - Another basketball convert, Thomas flashed amazing natural ball skills in limited preseason work, but has struggled to get over an ankle injury suffered in his rookie year. The Broncos aren't burning a roster spot on him for nothing, and there's no stud ahead of him on the depth chart.

David Ausberry, OAK - When the Raiders have thrown the ball to Ausberry this year, he has looked like Vernon Davis, with a combination of speed, power and elusiveness that is scary to face in the open field.

TE Submarine

Orson Charles, CIN - Charles is blocked for the foreseeable future by Jermaine Gresham, but he is still a good receiving talent and a stash that could pay off down the line in TE premium leagues.

Charles Clay, MIA - Clay has looked like an intriguing talent in the passing game when the Dolphins have used him, and he could claim a bigger part of the anemic passing game with a good offseason.

Garrett Graham, HOU - Graham is an Owen Daniels clone, and when Daniels' game starts to slip, he could take over Daniels' role in the offense.

Andrew Quarless, GB - DJ Williams looks like a bust, so the eventual replacement for Jermichael Finley might not even be on the roster. If he is, then it's more likely to Quarless, whose knee wasn't quite right a year removed from ACL surgery, so he landed back on IR.

As always, thanks for reading. Questions, comments and suggestions are always welcome to bloom@footballguys.com.

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