Buy Low / Sell High - Week 11
by Sigmund Bloom
November 16th, 2012

Buy Low

Sam Bradford, QB, Danny Amendola, WR, STL - After long dry stretch, Sam Bradford's development has gotten on track again with the return of Amendola to the lineup. The offensive line held up well against the rough San Francisco 49ers front seven, and Bradford had success without Chris Givens to stretch the defense. Everything in the Rams passing offense is pointing in the right direction, with Danny Amendola as the constant who has perfected getting open on short and intermediate routes, but can also run deep routes outside the numbers.

Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF - Kaepernick took a quarter or so to get his accuracy dialed in, but once he did, he brought the 49ers back from a 10-point deficit and preserved a tie against a game Rams team. He was able to create over 60 rushing yards mostly on scrambles, but he was used as a runner by design in the red zone, where it matters the most for fantasy football. Alex Smith has "incumbent" starter status, which means that he won't lose the job without repeated failure. Kaepernick owners might have to be patient to get their payoff, but either way I'm confident now that Kaepernick can be a productive fantasy quarterback on the order of a low-end QB1 with a high ceiling once he does get his shot.

Steven Jackson, RB, STL, Frank Gore, RB, SF - Jackson and Gore are defying their age and mileage as we get into the second half of the season. Both ran as strong as they have all year in the 24-24 tie, and at this rate, they should be both enter 2013 as starters - even if Jackson isn't in St. Louis. They can be had at a discount right now from rebuilding teams, so don't hesitate to make an offer if they are on the roster of a team going nowhere this year.

Donald Jones, WR, BUF - It always felt like Jones was the number two wide receiver in Buffalo by default, because a string of failed draft picks didn't work out. The last few weeks, Jones has looked the part of a starter, exhibiting great body control, length, route running, and overall effort. He has been very consistent in the box score as of late, and Jones is coming on as a mainstay in the offense. He might never be better than a solid flex/WR3, but he probably is not valued that highly by his owner right now.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Mike Wallace, WR, Heath Miller, TE, PIT - There's a chance that owners of these players will part with them for a major discount because of the crimp that Roethlisberger's injury is putting in their playoff run. I just saw Miller dealt for Rob Housler in one of my leagues. Even if it's not until next season, Roethlisberger and Miller will pick up where they left off and he'll be a top 10 tight end again. If any of these players are on a team that is struggling to get to the postseason, they could be had.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN - It's not Britt's fault that the Titans ran away from the Dolphins last week, rendering the passing game a secondary mode of attack. Here's another reminder that Britt is only 24 and he has the physical talent to rival the production of any wide receiver in the game when he is on. His owners are looking at their lineups without him this week, so maybe this is a good time to try to acquire Britt in dynasty and redraft leagues alike.

Chris Ivory, RB, NO - Now that Darren Sproles is back, the door might be closing on Ivory's highlight reel run the last two weeks. If the Saints are sane, it won't, but it's hard to feed four mouths in a backfield. Ivory can't be counted on to contribute right now in fantasy leagues, but his combination of speed, strength, and open field wizardry will surely get him on the field a lot more in the future, whether it's in a Saints uniform or not. Ivory is as cheap as he's going to be in dynasty leagues for a long time.

Eli Manning, QB, NYG - Eli is inconsistent, but he's not as bad as he has looked the last few weeks. Hakeem Nicks is finally healthy again, and the week of rest for the team combined with a weak schedule coming up against the pass should do wonders for Manning's fantasy stock. Green Bay just gave up back-to-back 300-yard games to Blaine Gabbert and John Skelton, what will Manning and company do to them in week 12?

Sell High

Carson Palmer, QB, OAK - Palmer is back among the ranks of the QB1, on pace to throw over 650 passes for almost 5000 yards. Some of that is an illusion, as the Raiders running game has evaporated and they have found themselves behind big in back-to-back games. Garbage time points can be an untrustworthy source of value, but overall it looks like Palmer can be a QB1 down the stretch this year. That's exactly why you should deal him if you aren't starting him. With 13 million dollars due next year, it's not even 100% that he's a Raider in 2013. His value will only get more volatile from here.

Danario Alexander, WR, SD - Alexander says his knee finally feels good, and he might be telling the truth, but odds are that this success will be short-lived for him. Most people know his story, so Alexander might have to do this for another week or two before folks buy in, but he also could get hurt before that happens. Dangle him out there this week even if it is only to put folks on notice so they make offers after he has another nice game this week at Denver.

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD - It's obviously not as high as it was at points earlier this year, but it seems like three years is enough of a sample size to conclude that it probably isn't going to happen for Mathews. He just turned 25 last month, and there are probably a few believers left in every league. Certainly enough to find a good return for a back that might be someone's hope to get a strong RB2 with RB1 upside for the stretch run, when in reality, he's just a flex play. All of Norv Turner's proclamations that Mathews would be a workhorse back were really just challenges for Mathews to elevate to that level. He hasn't.

Willis McGahee, RB, DEN - A lot of us are struggling at RB2, so if McGahee is yours and you don't have a strong RB3 to fall back on, hold him and hope for the best. If you can afford putting McGahee on the trade market, now is the time. There are surely a lot of RB needy teams in your league that will be willing to give up something of good value for him. McGahee's fumbles are putting him in a precarious position, and he hasn't really produced outside of two romps and a valiant game in the comeback attempt against the Falcons.

Brandon Myers, TE, OAK - Myers has stepped up big time in an offense lacking a receiving threat at tight end coming into the season, but his production is unsustainable. Myers has come on while the Raiders have been forced to pass 180 times in the last four games - 33 have gone to Myers. He's not a special talent in any way, and as the Raiders receivers continue to mature, his role will shrink. David Ausberry also presents an intriguing physical package for the Raider to attempt to incorporate in the offense in the future. If you're not starting Myers, deal him for whatever you can to a team that will start him.

As always, thanks for reading. Questions, comments and suggestions are always welcome to bloom@footballguys.com.

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