The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Second Thoughts

I try my best not to overreact either to a player's early performances he initially enters the NFL. I try to give a player time to reveal what he can or can't do as pro compared to his college exploits. That time allotment depends on what I saw as a prospect, what he's flashing as a pro, and whether he's played a full season's worth of games.

Sometimes I'll even give a player up to a few seasons. Less patient people might consider it stubbornness - and I admit, I have a wide stubborn streak when it comes to things I believe in - however, I would categorize my tendencies with players as patient. I have faith in my analysis because I know the work I put into it.

But there are times where there's enough evidence contrary to an original analysis to realize it's time to re-examine your views. There are two players that I have second thoughts about their overall potential in the NFL. With the first, I'm among the converted with some caveats. With the second, I've lost faith.

Take me to the River…(Darren McFadden)

Until last night, you could have counted me among the few last non-believers in the Raiders running back. The issues I've had with McFadden out of Arkansas included his vision, his between the tackles power, and his lateral agility.

McFadden runs with an unconventional style. His running stance has been compared to Eric Dickerson because he has a high pad level, but this is an oversimplification. Dickerson ran with enough leverage to push a pile and get under defenders on a more consistent basis than McFadden did at Arkansas. I've seen McFadden get pushed backwards on collisions most chain-moving backs win.

McFadden also doesn't exhibit great vision at the line of scrimmage. Even last night, McFadden ran into the backs of his offensive linemen multiple times. Most runners in the NFL exhibit better patience and nuance to set up rushing lanes.

And you won't see Darren McFadden make a strong lateral cut or exhibit a lot of set up or shake to his movement to eliminate a defender's angle in tight space or the open field. Most quality NFL backs can put their foot in the ground and cut side to side without moving forward. McFadden is more of a "run-bender," in the sense that he can change direction at a high speed and bend the run in more of a curve-like trajectory than an angular cut.

These three aspects of McFadden's game are generally problems for runners entering the NFL that share these stylistic habits and tendencies. I wasn't convinced McFadden's speed and acceleration could make up for his deficiencies. Even now, I'm not a believer that McFadden is a great running back as much as he's a good running back with great physical talent.

It sounds like nitpicking, but McFadden is like the football version of Reggie Jackson. He's a classic homerun hitter in the sense that he'll have both his fare share of successes and failures. He'll run up the backs of his linemen and fail to demonstrate the patience or change of direction to turn a loss or minimal gain into a play of 3-5 yards. However, he'll also break runs over 40 yards and make life miserable for defenders in the secondary.

When Oakland's offensive line generates a big hole, McFadden's burst is good enough to get through it and his speed doesn't change dramatically when he changes direction. Although he's a run-bender, he corners those bends in the open field fast enough that it's often as good as a strong, angular cut in the same situation. In fact, it's often better because he's avoiding contact, moving forward, and not slowing down. I simply didn't believe he could do this in the NFL as consistently as he does.

McFadden's pad level and lack of angular cutting ability still makes him a liability in many short-yardage situations, but there's no doubting his toughness as a physical player. I always enjoyed watching him bully defenders in the secondary, but I have a newfound respect for his toughness. I was surprised McFadden returned to the Monday night contest after getting his helmet ripped off his head.

Not only did he seem to be experiencing neck stiffness and pain, but he also appeared woozy. He returned to nearly score on a 47-yard run, looking spectacular in the process. I'm a convert. However, I believe the lesson learned for me is that McFadden is an exception to the rule when it comes to running backs. Straight-line speed is often an overrated commodity for an NFL running back. McFadden has the enough to compensate for what he lacks.

Losing Trust (Knowshon Moreno)

I have to concede that Cecil Lammey is likely correct about Moreno. The Broncos tailback has vision and he conceptually understands how to make defenders miss. He also flashes skills finishing plays, protecting the passer, and catching the football.

But a few things are missing.

The most important to me is balance. Watching Moreno slide around the field at Mile High was disheartening. This was not an issue I ever recall seeing at Georgia, but it appears he consistently has trouble maintaining his footing when he makes cuts.

Moreno's game at Georgia was his change of direction. His game was built on the facets of ball carrying that are the direct antithesis to Darren McFadden: balance, low pad level, change of direction, patience, and timing. If a running back cannot keep his feet he cannot execute any of the things I just mentioned.

I'm not as concerned about the lack of speed as Lammey is. Give me a back like Stephen Davis or Rudi Johnson behind a good offensive line and strong skill talent on the outside and I'm happy. We've seen enough from Moreno to know he can move the chains.

I still believe Moreno still has starter potential in the NFL in terms of his talent. However, that can only happen if he stays healthy and can keep his feet on the ground. I'm losing trust that Moreno can do either.

Who is this guy? Bills Tight End Scott Chandler.

Chandler was my No.3 TE in the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. What I liked the most about him was his quickness off the line, his skill catching the ball in tight coverage, and his height to present a mismatch with safeties. I tabbed him an underrated player among a class of tight ends that was considered a bad one:

Chandler has excellent hands. He snatches the ball and possesses excellent concentration in traffic and tight coverage. He has the speed and fluidity to get a clean release off the line and he can get separation against athletic linebackers. He is a former wide receiver and he possesses the basic route skills that are more advanced than many of his tight end peers at the college level. He does a very good job of adjusting to the football and he can make catches on inaccurately thrown balls that require him to dive, bend low, or leap over a defender.

Chandler is an accomplished blocker in the run game and he will drive a defender off the ball. He also shows good footwork with edge rushers in pass protection. He should become a good red zone tight end who will have better numbers in a passing game that his measurable might indicate.

Chandler was a fourth-round draft choice of the Chargers and they waived him in 2009. Since then he's bounced around on the practice squads of the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. Both of his touchdowns were from the slot against blown or bad coverage and neither required great skill. That said, Chan Gailey has made Chandler over the more heralded Shawn Nelson. From what I recall about Chandler and Iowa tight ends (Dallas Clark and Tony Moeaki), he could be worth monitoring.

Week 1 Result of the Week: Fantasy Premier League Championship Series

I'm not going to be profiling victories I have each week, but I will feature something relevant about a result that I think can have fantasy use. However, this week is a minor exception. I want to feature this league because I think Jene Bramel has come up with the very best fantasy scoring system I have seen. This is a full IDP league where the scoring gives equal footing to the top players at every position - offensive and IDP.

This is a star-studded league in terms of fantasy writing talent from around the Internet. It's also the league where I thought the denizens of the Shark Pool criticized my draft because I had the No.1 overall pick and I took Jason Witten. If you've read my column for a few years you know I might take risks, but there is some analysis behind my choices so obviously the scoring system had to be pretty different for me to opt for a tight end - and this particular tight end - with the top overall pick.

Opening weekend, I faced ESPN blogger and former NFL scout Matt Williamson:

I'm more known as an offensive guy in fantasy football, but my colleagues can tell you that I love IDP leagues. Since I know that owners like likes of Sigmund Bloom Jene Bramel, and Tony Nowak have a strong handle on defensive players, I like to take the approach of making defense my priority and trusting my skills with less certain offensive players to build a sound squad.

In week one, I think I succeeded because my linebacker corps played to expectation, Kyle Vanden Bosch hasn't gotten too injured to play (yet), and even Ed Reed shared some of his birthday presents with me. In this league if my worst producer is my RB2 every week, I'm going to be just fine. The one worrisome point is my depth chart's production. Matt Williamson's depth points were more than twice mine. However, I was nearly 90 percent efficient with my lineup choices and that spelled the difference with a 10-point victory. Good thing too, because I was talking major trash to Williamson, last year's champ, on Twitter during the draft, basically telling him I wasn't in the league last year when he "won" this championship.

Good times.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to waldman@footballguys.com.