Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over]
Undervalued WRs
Read the introduction to this series if you haven't yet.
Brandon Lloyd - DEN ADP: 52 overall, WR 19 | 9 votes |
Jene Bramel - The Broncos are moving from a spread offense to a more traditional pro set this year, but that doesn't mean they'll stop throwing the football. Even should Tim Tebow begin taking a significant number of the offensive snaps, the offense needs to be reasonably balanced. Lloyd will again be the best outside wide receiving option and the best third down and red zone target. He's very likely to see at least 120 targets and I think 75-1100-8 remains within easy reach. That's a borderline fantasy WR1 rather than a mid-WR2. I'd rather have Lloyd than Marques Colston, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson and possibly Brandon Marshall.
Mike Brown - People keep trying to come up with reasons as to why Lloyd's season last year was a fluke and why it'll be impossible for him to repeat that performance. Well, the key thing is that he doesn't have to repeat that performance in order to have value. The number one receiver a year ago is already priced as a steep discount due to...um...hmmm...I have no idea. Even if he drops ten spots at his position, there's value in this pick.
David Dodds - He finished as the #1 WR in 2011, but is getting no love this season? What has really changed in Denver? They did not address the RB needs. Orton is still the starter. The Broncos still have a bad defense and will be playing catch up in a lot of the games. I don't get this hate at all. Same player, same situation...usually will produce similar results.
Will Grant - Lloyd was the surprise fantasy player of the season last year, going from #127 overall fantasy WR in 2009 to #1 fantasy WR in 2010. His performance was largely due to Kyle Orton who is back as the starting QB this season for the Broncos. While he probably won't reach 1450 yards and 11 TDS again this season, he's an excellent value pick in the 4th round.
Dave Larkin - Brandon Lloyd is a technician at wide receiver, a player who consistently performs for whoever is at quarterback. His career renaissance last year was quite remarkable. Kyle Orton returns, bringing continuity to the Broncos offense. I see no reason why Lloyd can't repeat his 2010 performance. It may not show up every week in terms of his numbers, but Lloyd is the number one option in this passing attack and will be relied upon heavily by Orton.
Matt Waldman - The John Fox offense runs the ball first. The John Fox offense is conservative. The John Fox offense lacks innovation. The British are coming! The British are coming! The sky is falling! The sky is falling! I recall one Steve Smith having excellent numbers when there was a semblance of a passing game in Carolina and Smith was healthy. Last I saw, the Broncos have a semblance of a passing game. Ranked 53rd overall on this list, I can afford to wait to pull the trigger until I see the whites of his eyes.
Mark Wimer - Tim Tebow is flailing in training camp, and may lose the #2 job to Brady Quinn. That's good news, as Lloyd and Kyle Orton are very simpatico, and Orton is tightening his grip as the #1 QB in Denver with each passing day. Lloyd has reportedly been very sharp in his own right during training camp - he has a great shot to repeat his top-five finish from 2010 as the Broncos will be in airing-it-out/chase mode a lot during 2011. Lloyd is a steal at his current position (#53).
Jason Wood - Brandon Lloyd was the #1 fantasy WR last year, yet he's barely cracking the Top 20 in drafts. That's because people look at Lloyd's career and conclude that 2010 was a fluke. But if you WATCHED the games, actually studied the film, you'll see that Lloyd really benefitted from health, a renewed focus, and Josh McDaniel's system. While Josh McDaniel's is gone, Mike McCoy remains as OC and Lloyd is far and away the best receiving option on that roster. He was elite with Kyle Orton, and then he nearly matched those all-world totals when Tim Tebow took over. Simply put, Lloyd will be a top 12 fantasy WR again this year if he stays healthy, and yet you can draft him two or three rounds later than where his year-end stats will warrant.
Santonio Holmes - NYJ ADP: 53 overall, WR 20 | 6 votes |
Mike Brown - Holmes came on strong down the stretch a year ago to become the Jets go-to receiver. He proved adept at scoring touchdowns and developed an excellent rapport with young QB Mark Sanchez. This year, I expect the Jets to open the passing game even more than they did a year ago as they trust the QB with the keys more and more. Holmes is clearly the best playmaking receiver on the team, and should be the biggest beneficiary of the new attack.
Ryan Hester - Santonio Holmes came into his own last year and established himself as a clutch, go-to wide receiver. After being suspended for four games and having three modest outings that could perhaps be attributed to getting back to game speed and learning timing with a new team, Holmes had an eight-game stretch where he averaged 85 yards and scored 5 TDs. This season, Holmes begins the year as the clear #1 target of a young and developing QB heading into his third year. It's still a run-first team, but Holmes will be the clear leader in targets. Combine that with his elite speed, above-average hands, and much-improved route-running, and Holmes would seem to be a nice mid-round grab this year.
Steve Holloway - In his final season at Pittsburgh, Holmes caught 79 passes for 1,248 yards, averaging almost 5 catches and 78 yards per game. In his first season with the Jets, the averages slipped to 4.3 and 62, but it was his first year there, Sanchez was still learning, and Holmes was suspended for the first four games. Fast forward to 2011 and both Edwards and Cotchery are gone. They have added Burress and Mason, but Holmes should be the focal point of the passing game and garner more targets, even if the Jets do not throw more often. As Sanchez gains confidence, look for Holmes yards per catch to rise closer to 16 ypc.
Matt Waldman - He's pretty much arrived as an elite receiver in ability and refined technique. The general fan base just doesn't know it yet. Now that Holmes is on a team as the primary receiver with two quality veterans joining him, I think you're going to see WR1 production from him. He's always been a threat after the catch. He's always had strong body control to adjust to the football. And he has repeatedly been a clutch player in the close moments of games. Now that he's bonded with receivers coach Henry Ellard, a complete receiver in his day, Holmes showed signs in 2010 of taking his game to the next level as a route runner. Since every league I'm this week has had owners taking Collie, Lloyd, and Holmes earlier than their value, I'm not sure the numbers match the immediate trend. If they hold up for your league, buy!
Jason Wood - Braylon Edwards is gone. Jerricho Cotchery is gone. And Holmes got PAID to be Mark Sanchez' top receiver for years to come. Holmes was suspended to start last season, so his full year numbers don't tell the story. Pro rating his 10 starts over a full season gets you 77 receptions for 1,100 yards and 8 TDs -- and that was with two other credible WRs on the roster. Holmes need only stay healthy to grab 80+ receptions, 1,200+ yards and 7-10 TDs. Don't miss out on the opportunity to grab him a round earlier than his ADP suggests.
Mario Manningham - NYG ADP: 74 overall, WR 28 | 6 votes |
Jene Bramel - This ADP looks like a tug of war between those not sure on Manningham and waiting on news on Steve Smith (who's now with Philadelphia) and those who see Manningham as the 75-1100-10 player he was during the second half of 2010. Manningham's ADP is sure to climb with Smith off the depth chart, but it's not likely to jump into the top 20 where it arguably belongs.
David Dodds - The departure of Steve Smith should elevate Manningham significantly this year. With just 92 targets last year, he managed to finish as the 17th best WR. Those targets are going to be way higher in 2011 and so should the production. He and Hakeem Nicks have virtually no competition for their roles. They both should be on the field for the majority of plays for the Giants in 2011.
Colin Dowling - Manningham finished as WR17 in 2010. This season he won't be sharing catches with Steve Smith, who departed for the Eagles. He won't be sharing catches with Kevin Boss, who departed for the Oakland Raiders. Yet somehow Manningham is being drafted behind 26 other receivers this year. His value couldn't be more apparent.
Greg Russell - Before the departure of Steve Smith, Mario Manningham was being undervalued. It will remain to be seen if fantasy football realizes this and adjusts with the news of Steve Smith's signing with Philly. Manningham hasn't just fallen into a good situation, he has improved his route running since coming to the NFL, and the results showed with 9 touchdowns and nearly 1000 yards in 2010. With the loss of Smith and TE Kevin Boss, Manningham's targets are likely to increase further.
Jason Wood - Mario Manningham was a part-time starter last year. In spite of only starting 8 games, he was the 17th ranked fantasy WR. In spite of that, fantasy owners are expecting a drop off in 2011. But why? He's young, knows the offense, clearly has a rapport with Eli Manning and -- most importantly -- TE Kevin Boss and WR Steve Smith have signed elsewhere. Eli Manning will need Manningham and Hakeem Nicks to dominate, each and every Sunday. If Manningham's ADP doesn't start climbing, he's one of the best steals on the market.
Lance Moore - NO ADP: 124 overall, WR 46 | 5 votes |
Jeff Haseley - The Saints slot specialist Lance Moore figures to be the team's number two WR behind Marques Colston. He is capable of being a major contributor and I believe he could have an Austin Collie-like year for the Saints. The news that Colston's knee isn't 100% could result in more targets for Moore. The most recent back injury to Robert Meachem also adds value to Moore. He's a steal as the 38th WR off the board. Look for his ADP to increase as the season gets closer.
Aaron Rudnicki - Now that Reggie Bush has moved on, Lance Moore's role in the Saints offense should be safe. He fills a role similar to the one played by Wes Welker with the Patriots in that they are both reliable slot receivers who the QBs rely on heavily to help them move the chains. Like Welker, Moore has added value in PPR leagues due to his high catch rate and solid reception numbers most weeks. However, he has posted seasons of 10 and 8 touchdowns in 2 of the past three years and can produce like a starting WR in any scoring system. If you can land him this late in the draft, consider yourself lucky as I expect his ADP to rise as the season gets closer.
Greg Russell - Lance Moore tested free agency before re-signing with the Saints this offseason. Moore is a player who is a viable fantasy starter if he produces similar to the past, yet is being drafted as the 46th WR. Moore also has tremendous upside beyond that as Marques Colston has been battling knee issues for most of his career and Robert Meachem is currently banged up. should Colston's knees act up, Moore should find himself as Drew Brees favorite target and see a significant jump in targets.
Mark Wimer - Marques' Colston's surgically repaired knee is ailing, and tight end Jimmy Graham is relatively inexperienced with just one NFL campaign under his belt (as the understudy to Jeremy Shockey). Moore has a good rapport with Drew Brees (and he came close to double digit TDs last year with 66/763/8 receiving on 95 targets). If Colston continues to struggle to get on the field, Moore could easily get over 100 targets and into the 70-80 reception range during 2011 (similar to his 2008 campaign). It looks like there will be plenty of opportunity for Moore to be highly productive during 2011.
Austin Collie - IND ADP: 68 overall, WR 25 | 4 votes |
Ryan Hester - Of any player being debated this fantasy preseason, Austin Collie perhaps has the most distance between his floor and his ceiling. The doubters cite concussion issues lingering from the many hits Collie took last year. The pro-Collie contingent says he was the #1 fantasy WR before his initial knock on the noggin last year. So who is right? Consider a fact from concussion research. While players with multiple concussions take longer to recover with each additional one, after healing, the chances of getting a concussion are the same for every player regardless of the number of concussions the player has. In an explosive, pass-first offense, he gained the trust of one of the best quarterbacks in history and passed Pierre Garcon on the depth chart. With Reggie Wayne aging and Garcon dropping, Collie could have a big year if he can make it through.
Aaron Rudnicki - Based on the way Collie played last year, he deserves to be going much higher than this. He was clearly the primary target for Peyton Manning and managed to haul in 8 touchdown passes in less than 9 full games played. Obviously, the two concussions he suffered are a concern and the main reason he is slipping in the draft, but he looks like a huge value at this point to me. When healthy, you have to think he'll be very productive again so you get a shot at a WR1 type player in the 6th round of the draft. That makes him especially useful for owners that go with a RB-heavy approach or those who take a QB like Rodgers or Vick early who need to play catchup at the WR spot later on.
Matt Waldman - Concussion-fueled hysteria. Yes, hysteria. Head injuries should be taken more seriously in the NFL. Collie's three concussions definitely register significantly on the NFL PR Richter scale. However, there are tons of players past and present that have had long and successful careers who had multiple concussions in a season. It's encouraging that Collie will be using a better-designed helmet, but I haven't been worried one bit that Collie wouldn't be back and starting in this great offense. He's a tremendous value at 69th on this list. Especially when he's going to produce at the very least like a high-end WR2. You might as well be chumming the water for me...
Percy Harvin - MIN ADP: 61 overall, WR 22 | 4 votes |
Will Grant - With Sidney Rice gone, Harvin becomes the #1 receiving option for the Vikings. Bringing in Donovan McNabb can only help. Harvin is light years ahead of the group of role-players that are behind him on the depth chart, and the Vikings will get him the ball as often as possible. Expect a big year from him.
Jeff Pasquino - With Sidney Rice gone to Seattle, Percy Harvin immediately becomes the top target for Minnesota. New quarterback Donovan McNabb will get the ball in Harvin's hands as both a receiver and a rusher every week, trying to take advantage of his speed and versatility. The migraine headaches appear to be under control as well -- and if you get a boost in kick returns in your league he has that value as well. Harvin has Top 15 WR potential and can be had as a late WR2 or early WR3 in many draft formats.
Jason Wood - Donovan McNabb needs a go-to guy. Sidney Rice left for Seattle, Bernard Berrian is a joke, and Michael Jenkins isn't much better. New OC Bill Musgrave understands how important Percy Harvin will be to the Vikings success. While Harvin has a been a 'headache' for fantasy owners in the past, he has been migraine free since January. Combine that with his open field abilities and a good pair of hands, and you've got a guy that can rack up the yards-after-the-catch from McNabb each and every week. I find it hard to imagine Harvin will fall out of the top 12 this year if he can stay migraine free, he's too much of mismatch for most defensive backs.
Chad Ochocinco - NE ADP: 75 overall, WR 29 | 3 votes |
Greg Russell - Many people seem to be predicting a split in targets between Chad Ochocinco and Deion Branch that will hurt the fantasy outlook of both players. I don't see that being that case to the degree necessary to explain Ochocinco's draft position. With touchdown totals that are frequently double those of Branch even during the latter's New England days, Ochocinco is going to step onto the field being the best red zone threat that the Patriots have had since Randy Moss. In 2010 Ochocinco is at least a good WR3 with upside.
Chris Smith - This is a scary player for me to put in as a value pick but he has talent still and with Tom Brady throwing the ball, Ochocinco may indeed find lightning in a bottle. There is a real opportunity here to put up top-15 numbers in this offense and he should be able to beat up Deion Branch.
Dez Bryant - DAL ADP: 41 overall, WR 14 | 2 votes |
Jeff Pasquino - Dallas is going to struggle to score on the ground this year, and Tony Romo looks to be 100% to start this season. Bryant scored six touchdowns last year as the third wide receiver and did not start until the second half of the year once he pushed himself past Roy Williams. Bryant may be the top target in Dallas and the highest scoring receiver of all for the Cowboys this year, offering up fantasy WR1 numbers at a WR2 price.
Jacoby Ford - OAK ADP: 111 overall, WR 38 | 2 votes |
Will Grant - Ford is currently dealing with a broken hand, and it's unclear when he'll be ready to get back on the field. This has fantasy owners avoiding him and ADP is dropping like a stone. He's #1 on the depth chart of a team that is going to pass for 3500 yards this season. He's not going to carry your fantasy team from week to week, but as a #3 guy, he will definitely give you consistent performance with solid upside.
Robert Meachem - NO ADP: 132 overall, WR 47 | 2 votes |
Jeff Pasquino - Something is just not right with Marques Colston, and Robert Meachem stands to benefit the most. Meachem was WR45 last year on just 66 targets, catching 44-638-5 for the Saints. Drew Brees crosses the 4,000 yard line with regularity, so even if Colston is fine you would have to expect more than 66 targets for Meachem this season. Meachem is available near WR50 in many drafts and offers WR3 value with WR2 upside -- that's hard to beat.
Sidney Rice - SEA ADP: 66 overall, WR 24 | 2 votes |
Dave Larkin - Sidney Rice, when fully healthy, is a handful for any defensive back. You can double him all day and he will still sky over you and secure a ball he has no business even competing for. A tremendous talent, Rice begins his first season in Seattle with a less-than-ideal quarterback situation. A positive is that his offensive coordinator from Minnesota, Darrell Bevell, will be calling the plays in Seattle. I am putting my faith in Rice this season because his talent is simply too great to ignore just because the situation may not be ideal on paper.
Mike Thomas - JAX ADP: 96 overall, WR 36 | 2 votes |
Will Grant - While sharing the field with Mike Sims-Walker last season, Thomas finished as the #30 overall fantasy WR. Although Thomas had the highlight TD catch of the year against Houston in week 10, Sims-Walker reached the end zone seven times compared with only four for Thomas. Sims-Walker is gone and Jason Hill is his replacement. Thomas should improve on last season's performance, making him great value as a late 8th round pick.
Roy Williams - CHI ADP: 141 overall, WR 52 | 2 votes |
Jeff Tefertiller - Williams was written off by many fantasy owners after his disappointing campaigns in Dallas. Williams goes to Chicago to re-unite with former Detroit Lion coach Mike Martz. He will not live up to the numbers posted in the Motor City, but is easily the best pass catcher in the Windy City. Williams has a shot at being an every-week fantasy starter, and is available in the last round or two in drafts.
Danny Amendola - STL ADP: 136 overall, WR 49 | 1 vote |
Miles Austin - DAL ADP: 30 overall, WR 10 | 1 vote |
Steve Breaston - KC ADP: 147 overall, WR 54 | 1 vote |
Kenny Britt - TEN ADP: 70 overall, WR 26 | 1 vote |
Plaxico Burress - NYJ ADP: 122 overall, WR 45 | 1 vote |
Braylon Edwards - SF ADP: 106 overall, WR 37 | 1 vote |
A.J. Green - CIN ADP: 80 overall, WR 31 | 1 vote |
Steve Johnson - BUF ADP: 57 overall, WR 21 | 1 vote |
Julio Jones - ATL ADP: 84 overall, WR 32 | 1 vote |
Brandon Marshall - MIA ADP: 42 overall, WR 15 | 1 vote |
Santana Moss - WAS ADP: 85 overall, WR 33 | 1 vote |
Jordy Nelson - GB ADP: 118 overall, WR 43 | 1 vote |
Steve Smith - CAR ADP: 78 overall, WR 30 | 1 vote |
Mike Sims-Walker - STL ADP: 117 overall, WR 42 | 1 vote |