Introduction • QB: [under] [over] • RB: [under] [over] • WR: [under] [over] • TE: [under] [over]
Overvalued RBs
Read the introduction to this series if you haven't yet.
Ryan Mathews - SD ADP: 37 overall, RB 17 | 7 votes |
Mike Brown - Mathews is being drafted in the late third round as a RB2, but the fact is that he might not even score the most fantasy points amongst running backs on his own real life team. Mike Tolbert showed a penchant for finding the end zone with frequency a year ago, and Mathews did not. What's more, he spent a lot of time in the trainer's room dealing with various maladies. And he was so dedicated to improvement this season that he came into camp and...failed his conditioning test. Yikes. It's still early in his career, but Mathews has all of the early warning signs of a draft bust. He'll need to make quite an impression early on to justify the team giving him the lion's share of the workload. At this price, there are too many "ifs" for me to spend that high of a pick.
Ryan Hester - After being the rookie with the most hype last year, Ryan Mathews is just looking to play more than half the season this year. While his potential is clearly the reason for his solid RB2 ranking, his situation is very cloudy. Mathews was injured most of last season -- allowing Mike Tolbert to emerge -- and has been nicked up in camp. Those factors are going to keep Tolbert heavily involved in the offense, limiting Mathews' potential and lowering his ceiling.
Jeff Pasquino - Ryan Mathews is getting selected in the third or fourth rounds of most drafts, which is way too high a price to pay for a back that was banged up last year and is now in a full blown running back by committee approach in San Diego. Mike Tolbert will get well over 100 touches -- probably 150 or more -- leaving Mathews barely enough room to get 200 if that. Philip Rivers also has a big arm and is unafraid to use it, making the Chargers more likely to throw it to Vincent Jackson or Antonio Gates rather than to rely on a ground game.
Greg Russell - Matthews has talent and ability, but last year's injury-plagued season gave Mike Tolbert the opportunity to show he can be a solid contributor as well. Matthews is at risk of losing enough carries and touchdowns to Tolbert that other players available at the end of the third round like Jahvid Best, Mark Ingram and LeGarrette Blount may be better picks.
Mark Wimer - Two words: Mike Tolbert. Tolbert will be the inside/goal-line back, and also see a significant amount of work between the 20's as well. Mathews' scoring opportunities will be limited, and he may see a near 50/50 split outside of the red zone. No thanks.
Jason Wood - I'm doing a bit of a 180 on Mathews. In my first set of projections I had Mathews even higher than RB17, thinking that last year's injuries were a misleading indicator and that he would be given every chance to be the workhorse in SD. But since then Mathews continues to be nicked up, failed his physical at the start of camp, and hasn't been able to distance himself from Mike Tolbert. This is shaping up to be a true time share, and that means Mathews is overpriced as a mid-level fantasy RB2.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - NE ADP: 65 overall, RB 27 | 6 votes |
Anthony Borbely - BJGE broke out last year and finished the year with over 1000 rushing yards and 13 TDs. So how did the Patriots reward him? They drafted not one but two RBs in the first three rounds in the 2011 draft. They also have third down specialist Danny Woodhead. With so many mouths to feed, it is going to be virtually impossible to predict anything about the Patriots' running game this year. There are just too many unknowns to draft BJGE at his ADP of 67. I think that is a good three or four rounds too high.
David Dodds - He started last year as New England's 4th best RB, but saw action because of the multitude of injuries to the other backs. He did well with those carries, but the team moved up in the NFL draft to get their guy Shane Vereen. I suspect by the season's mid-way point (and maybe sooner), Vereen will be the primary RB. The Patriots also look like a team that may want to throw it 70% of the time after the success Brady had in 2010 with worse personnel.
Will Grant - The New England backfield is a crowded mess right now, and 'The Law Firm' is just one of several backs that might emerge as the starter. Danny Woodhead, rookie Shane Vereen, and pre-season standout Stevan Ridley could all see playing time this season. Don't spend a high draft pick on any of them.
Dave Larkin - Too many cooks spoil the broth. The New England backfield is a crowded one, with rookies Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen poised to steal carries from last season's battering ram in the backfield, "The Law Firm", BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Danny Woodhead, although primarily thought of a pass catching back, has deceptive skill running between the tackles that belie his frame. Bill Belichick plugs running backs in on a whim and it is this constant fluctuation that worries me about Green-Ellis' fantasy prospects.
Jeff Pasquino - To say New England's backfield is crowded is like saying that Boston traffic is heavy -- both are major understatements. Green-Ellis led the Patriots in touchdowns on the ground last year, but the Patriots drafted both Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley last April and also have Danny Woodhead in the mix. That leaves four mouths to potentially feed in a ground game that might only be a 50-50 compliment to Tom Brady and the aerial game. Drafting Green-Ellis in the sixth round and expecting a repeat of 2010 numbers is just asking for trouble.
Maurice Jones-Drew - JAX ADP: 9 overall, RB 7 | 5 votes |
Mike Brown - This one's easy. Jones-Drew still isn't fully recovered from his knee woes, has a fantastic backup in Rashad Jennings, and the Jacksonville passing game isn't going to do him any favors. They lost arguably their most productive receiver in Mike Sims-Walker and there's a good chance defenses will be able to stack the box to stuff the running game. And that's a lot of bad news before really going into detail on Jones-Drew's knee, which has behaved lately as if it is significantly older than Jones-Drew himself. It wouldn't be shocking to see more of a time-sharing situation in the running game as the Jags try to preserve Jones-Drew's season and to a lesser extent, career.
Jeff Haseley - This much we know - Jones-Drew is coming off knee surgery for a partially torn meniscus and he has had issues in the past with his knees. He also has had quite a workload in his five years in the league. Combine that with the presence of a very capable Rashad Jennings taking away some of his carries and it's a recipe for falling out of the Top 10.
Steve Holloway - Factor number one to consider is that he is coming off knee surgery. Factor number two is that he has almost 700 touches over the past two seasons. Factor number three is that the Jaguars offense should be less efficient this year with an already injured Garrard and a potential shift to the first round rookie QB.
Jeff Pasquino - Maurice Jones-Drew's overvaluation status goes beyond just the concerns over his knee. The injury risk is very real as he is not even playing in the preseason and we know he had it worked on during the offseason, and Jacksonville was already planning on getting Rashad Jennings more involved in the offense. Add in that you will have to pay either a later first or an early second round pick and the risk escalates. The Jaguars also have major issues at quarterback and with the passing attack in general, putting MJD in the "do not draft" category for me.
Cedric Benson - CIN ADP: 56 overall, RB 23 | 4 votes |
Mike Brown - I've been a fan of Benson for awhile now, but I just can't get on board with him this season. I realize that his ADP of 55 already has the Cincinnati offensive woes built into his sluggish draft slot to an extent. However, this situation is even more dire than that. The team is running with either a rookie quarterback or Bruce Gradkowski, neither of whom inspires much confidence. They lost their two biggest playmakers in Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. And Bernard Scott is breathing down Benson's back for more playing time. Considering Benson doesn't contribute much of anything in the passing game, there are likely going to be more than a few games where the Bengals fall behind and abandon the run very early. All of that adds up to an extremely disappointing year for Benson.
Ryan Hester - After a resurgence two seasons ago, Cedric Benson disappointed last year. He's an aging player on a low-skill team that is part of a terrible organization. This whole offense should struggle with a rookie quarterback slated to start and two new starting wide receivers (including a rookie). There's also a little Benson-related problem in backup Bernard Scott. Typically, drafting the second-best running back on a team isn't an overly successful strategy. That's what people who draft Benson will be doing -- except they'll be counting on him as a starter.
Mark Wimer - The Bungles are starting a rookie QB with a rookie #1 wide receiver and they brought back Benson (who has averaged 3.5 or less yards per carry during three of his six NFL seasons, including last year) to grind out yards for their learning-on-the-job offense. Trips to the red-zone are going to be rare in Cincinnati this year - I'd be shocked to see Benson score more than six rushing TDs this year.
Ryan Torain - WAS ADP: 92 overall, RB 36 | 4 votes |
Chris Smith - Torain is an interesting fantasy player. He has the potential to put up nice statistics but has a terrible time staying healthy. He had some good moments last year and will have some again this year but with him sharing the field with Tim Hightower and his lack of durability,there are better options to target.
Mark Wimer - Torain's broken hand has opened the door to free agent signee Tim Hightower - and Hightower is excelling in his chance so far. This looks like Hightower's job to lose as of mid-August, relegating Torain to spot duty at best.
Jason Wood - Ryan Torain played reasonably well in Washington last year, and Coach Shanahan has always been enamored with the former Sun Devil. But Torain has been a walking injury report for years, and just had four screws put into his hand. In the meantime, the Redskins acquired Tim Hightower, who has looked like a great fit in Shanny's one-cut and go running scheme. As if that weren't enough, the Redskins have two rookie RBs vying for carries, as well as a number of other backups in camp. The idea of Torain being much more than a bench fantasy player this year is aggressive, and not worth the risk.
LeGarrette Blount - TB ADP: 34 overall, RB 16 | 2 votes |
Jeff Tefertiller - Blount finished as the RB24 as a rookie last year in only 13 games. He looked very good. But, there is a big leap from that season to a third round fantasy pick. Blount is a good ball carrier with little competition for carries. The question is whether you would take the risk on Blount so early in the draft. A third round pick is a big gamble.
Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG ADP: 32 overall, RB 15 | 2 votes |
Matt Waldman - I think he's a round or two overvalued this year. Tom Coughlin has made it known that he expects Brandon Jacobs to see more carries than 2010 and this will cut into Bradshaw's time. I still think Bradshaw has borderline RB1 upside, but his situation makes him a better fifth- or sixth-round pick than a third-rounder.
Darren McFadden - OAK ADP: 14 overall, RB 9 | 2 votes |
Matt Waldman - I promise you, I even laugh every time I talk about McFadden in this light. I'm so predictable when it comes to giving this back short shrift. It's not that I don't want to be wrong about the guy. I was wrong about Chris Johnson, but I accept he's a great runner. I think McFadden is becoming a good runner, but the offensive line was a big reason. Now that Tom Cable, Robert Gallery, and Zach Miller have left for Seattle, I'm very skeptical the line will be able to open the kind of holes McFadden saw last year. Big play threats of McFadden's running style need nice creases to hit the line hard. Bruce Campbell is an unproven commodity and I'm not convinced he's going to transition seamlessly. This is going to hurt McFadden's value because good guard play is responsible for so many basic double teams and adjustments that make the interior ground game work.
Jonathan Stewart - CAR ADP: 81 overall, RB 31 | 2 votes |
Jason Wood - Stewart could be a top 10 fantasy back if he was the workhorse. But Carolina gave DeAngelo Williams a 5-year, $43mm contract with $21 million in guarantees. A rebuilding team doesn't do that if they plan on having him share touches 50/50 with a younger, far less expensive runner. Williams will be the bell cow, the offensive focal point. Remember, this is a new coaching staff and they have no reason to commit to a committee approach just because John Fox insisted on it. Stewart may be the best backup RB in the NFL, but he's a backup and paying fantasy RB2 numbers makes zero sense.
Michael Turner - ATL ADP: 15 overall, RB 10 | 2 votes |
Jeff Haseley - This is coming out of left field, but it makes sense if you look deep enough. If the Falcons passing game improves with the presence of Roddy White and Julio Jones complimenting each other, one stands to believe the running game will see a decline, even if just a little. Plus Atlanta re-signed Jason Snelling and drafted Jacquizz Rogers. Turner's performance may not drop, but his production could take a hit, which would lower his numbers.
Joseph Addai - IND ADP: 72 overall, RB 30 | 1 vote |
Donald Brown - IND ADP: 163 overall, RB 55 | 1 vote |
Frank Gore - SF ADP: 16 overall, RB 11 | 1 vote |
Ryan Grant - GB ADP: 60 overall, RB 25 | 1 vote |
Shonn Greene - NYJ ADP: 38 overall, RB 18 | 1 vote |
Peyton Hillis - CLE ADP: 23 overall, RB 14 | 1 vote |
Fred Jackson - BUF ADP: 67 overall, RB 28 | 1 vote |
Steven Jackson - STL ADP: 17 overall, RB 12 | 1 vote |
Felix Jones - DAL ADP: 59 overall, RB 24 | 1 vote |
Knowshon Moreno - DEN ADP: 45 overall, RB 21 | 1 vote |
Daniel Thomas - MIA ADP: 63 overall, RB 26 | 1 vote |
DeAngelo Williams - CAR ADP: 39 overall, RB 19 | 1 vote |