Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Wide Receivers
By Clayton Gray
May 2nd, 2011

Quick Links to Other Positions:   QB · RB · WR · TE · PK · Def · DB · DL · LB

Note: Due to the lack of free agency, this first edition of 2011 strength of schedule is very much a work in progress. As veteran players move to new teams, the numbers below will change, so check back often for updates.

The advantages offered by the Ultimate Strength of Schedule (USOS) when compared to traditional SOS displays are numerous and include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Fantasy Points Driven
    Fantasy football is all about scoring fantasy points, so USOS is based on fantasy points.

  • Removed Bias Of Schedule
    Consider the following scenario: Defense A faced the Top 16 offenses while Defense B faced the Worst 16 offenses. If both defenses allowed opposing QBs to average 300 fantasy points last season, are they equally strong? Of course not - Defense A is far superior as they faced much better offenses. This bias of schedule has been removed from USOS.

  • Positional Breakdown
    If you are looking for a RB, it's much more relevant to see SOS data for RBs (rather than simply rushing data).

  • Comparison Of 2011 Schedule To 2010 Schedule
    On the surface, a team with an easy schedule at RB should see better RB stats this year. Good schedule = bigger numbers than the year before, right? It seems logical. However, sometimes it's not enough to say that a team has an easy schedule. What if they had an equally easy schedule the season before? Equal schedule = similar numbers as the year before. USOS looks at the differences in schedule from this year compared to last season. An easier set of opponents this year points to increased production. A more difficult set of opponents this season points to decreased production.

  • Explanation of USOS Tables

    Below, you will see tables for each positions USOS. Here is a brief explanation of the make-up of these tables.

    The "TM" Column

    This is simply the NFL team.

    The Values

    Each value in the table is the expected number of fantasy points on average or on a per game basis (depending on the column).

    The "2011" Column

    This is the average expected fantasy points allowed by each team's opponents for this season.

    The "Chng" Column

    This is the amount of change between the 2011 schedule and the 2010 schedule. A positive value points to an easier SOS than last year while a negative value points to a more difficult SOS compared to last season.

    The "EZ" Column

    This is the number of easy opponents each team will face this season. An easy opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as many easy games as possible.

    The "TF" Column

    This is the number of tough opponents each team will face this season. A tough opponent is defined as one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best defenses. Obviously, it is preferred to have players with as few tough games as possible.

    The "1st3" Column

    This is the SOS for the first three weeks of the NFL season. This value is useful to determine how players should be expected to open the season. Players with low values could easily stumble out of the gate.

    The "1st5" Column

    This is similar to "1st3" except that it covers the first five weeks of the NFL season (note that some teams only play four games in this time frame).

    The "Byes" Column

    This is the SOS covering the bye weeks. This value is useful to find a complementary player during the byes as you'll need to shuffle players in and out of your starting lineup. A player with an easy schedule during this time would be nice to have.

    The "14to16" Column

    This is similar to "1st3" except that it specifically covers Week 14 through Week 16.

    The "15to17" Column

    This is similar to "14to16" except that it specifically covers Week 15 through Week 17.

    The "W1" through "W17" Columns

    These values are the expected strength of each team's opponent for that particular week (W5 is Week 5, etc). This is very useful when searching for backups for your stud players. The key is to locate players with easy opponents when your star is on a bye.

    The Coloring of the Values

    The green values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) best values in that column. Green was chosen because you can go ahead and take players on that team. The yellow values indicate that the team has one of the eight (seven during the bye weeks) worst values in that column. Yellow was chosen because you should use caution before selecting players from that team. (Note: a green / red combo was considered but some people are color blind between those two colors.)

  • Green is a hot team with a good schedule

  • Yellow is a cold team with a bad schedule

  • Ultimate Strength of Schedule - Wide Receivers

    TM
    2011
    Chng
    EZ
    TF
    1st3
    1st5
    Byes
    14to16
    15to17
    Ari
    21.2
    1.8%
    3
    2
    20.8
    20.5
    20.7
    21.3
    22.2
    Atl
    20.2
    3.7%
    4
    4
    19.9
    20.6
    19.2
    19.9
    21.2
    Bal
    21.0
    4.2%
    5
    5
    20.9
    20.4
    21.7
    18.8
    19.9
    Buf
    20.4
    -1.4%
    5
    4
    20.7
    20.5
    19.7
    19.2
    20.7
    Car
    20.9
    3.6%
    6
    2
    21.4
    20.8
    20.7
    22.1
    21.2
    Chi
    20.0
    -4.5%
    3
    5
    20.2
    19.6
    19.6
    21.2
    21.0
    Cin
    21.1
    10.0%
    5
    4
    21.1
    21.0
    21.8
    22.5
    21.9
    Cle
    21.0
    2.7%
    5
    4
    19.5
    20.2
    22.1
    20.8
    20.8
    Dal
    20.7
    2.1%
    3
    3
    20.5
    20.6
    21.7
    20.0
    20.0
    Den
    19.8
    -5.2%
    4
    7
    20.4
    19.5
    18.9
    20.3
    21.0
    Det
    20.0
    -2.0%
    4
    5
    21.0
    21.3
    20.3
    18.4
    17.9
    GB
    20.1
    -6.7%
    3
    3
    18.8
    19.9
    20.5
    20.0
    21.0
    Hou
    20.3
    -1.3%
    5
    5
    19.0
    18.7
    21.0
    18.7
    19.0
    Ind
    21.4
    -2.1%
    9
    2
    20.8
    21.1
    21.6
    22.2
    22.8
    Jac
    20.3
    -0.9%
    5
    6
    19.3
    19.8
    21.0
    21.8
    20.9
    KC
    19.2
    -5.6%
    1
    9
    19.0
    19.0
    19.0
    18.3
    18.9
    Mia
    20.3
    0.7%
    5
    6
    22.0
    21.0
    20.1
    20.0
    19.9
    Min
    20.0
    0.4%
    3
    5
    19.7
    20.8
    19.1
    20.4
    20.2
    NE
    19.5
    0.6%
    2
    7
    18.6
    18.5
    20.7
    20.3
    19.6
    NO
    20.5
    -4.9%
    5
    4
    20.5
    20.3
    19.6
    21.5
    19.7
    NYG
    21.0
    -2.1%
    5
    5
    20.6
    21.8
    20.8
    21.2
    21.2
    NYJ
    20.4
    -0.8%
    5
    4
    21.5
    21.6
    19.7
    20.4
    19.5
    Oak
    20.2
    -0.5%
    3
    5
    19.4
    20.7
    21.3
    20.4
    20.2
    Phi
    21.4
    -2.0%
    6
    2
    21.4
    21.0
    20.7
    20.7
    21.2
    Pit
    21.8
    6.7%
    7
    1
    21.3
    21.8
    22.3
    21.5
    21.5
    SD
    20.2
    -5.9%
    4
    5
    21.4
    20.9
    20.0
    20.2
    19.9
    SF
    21.6
    9.5%
    5
    1
    23.2
    21.9
    21.2
    21.9
    21.7
    Sea
    21.3
    7.5%
    4
    1
    21.0
    21.1
    21.5
    21.2
    21.5
    StL
    21.4
    5.2%
    5
    2
    20.1
    20.3
    21.8
    21.5
    20.6
    TB
    20.5
    -1.2%
    6
    4
    21.0
    20.5
    19.9
    21.2
    21.0
    Ten
    20.6
    -2.5%
    5
    5
    21.7
    20.9
    20.7
    20.2
    21.4
    Was
    20.8
    -2.0%
    5
    3
    22.1
    22.1
    20.0
    20.7
    19.7
    Avg
    20.6
    0%
    5
    4
    20.6
    20.6
    20.6
    20.6
    20.6

    Week-By-Week Look

    TM
    W1
    W2
    W3
    W4
    W5
    W6
    W7
    W8
    W9
    Ari
    16.8
    20.9
    24.6
    20.1
    19.9
    -
    18.6
    21.3
    21.8
    Atl
    20.0
    19.0
    20.8
    24.6
    18.4
    16.8
    20.7
    -
    17.9
    Bal
    18.6
    22.3
    21.8
    18.9
    -
    23.1
    23.1
    22.6
    18.6
    Buf
    22.2
    17.7
    22.2
    21.3
    19.0
    20.1
    -
    20.9
    18.9
    Car
    22.6
    18.4
    23.1
    20.0
    19.7
    22.4
    20.9
    19.9
    -
    Chi
    22.4
    19.7
    18.4
    16.8
    20.7
    19.9
    20.8
    -
    19.0
    Cin
    20.8
    20.6
    21.8
    18.7
    23.1
    17.9
    -
    24.6
    22.3
    Cle
    21.3
    17.9
    19.4
    22.3
    -
    17.7
    24.6
    21.8
    23.1
    Dal
    18.9
    21.8
    20.9
    20.7
    -
    22.2
    21.8
    19.0
    24.6
    Den
    17.7
    21.3
    22.3
    18.4
    17.7
    -
    19.4
    20.7
    17.7
    Det
    20.8
    22.2
    19.9
    23.7
    20.0
    21.8
    22.4
    20.6
    -
    GB
    19.7
    16.8
    20.0
    20.6
    22.4
    21.8
    19.9
    -
    17.7
    Hou
    17.9
    19.4
    19.7
    18.6
    17.7
    21.3
    22.3
    23.1
    20.8
    Ind
    23.1
    20.8
    18.6
    20.8
    22.2
    21.3
    19.7
    22.3
    22.4
    Jac
    22.3
    18.9
    16.8
    19.7
    21.3
    18.6
    21.3
    23.1
    -
    KC
    18.7
    20.7
    17.7
    19.9
    17.9
    -
    17.7
    17.7
    19.4
    Mia
    22.2
    23.1
    20.8
    17.7
    -
    18.9
    20.6
    20.1
    22.2
    Min
    17.7
    20.8
    20.7
    22.2
    22.6
    20.0
    18.4
    16.8
    -
    NE
    19.4
    17.7
    18.7
    17.7
    18.9
    23.7
    -
    18.6
    20.1
    NO
    18.4
    20.0
    23.1
    23.1
    16.8
    20.8
    17.9
    21.8
    20.8
    NYG
    20.9
    21.8
    19.0
    22.6
    24.6
    18.7
    -
    19.4
    22.2
    NYJ
    23.7
    23.1
    17.7
    21.3
    22.2
    19.4
    17.7
    -
    18.7
    Oak
    20.6
    18.7
    18.9
    22.2
    23.1
    20.8
    22.2
    -
    20.6
    Phi
    21.8
    22.4
    20.1
    21.8
    18.7
    20.9
    -
    23.7
    20.0
    Pit
    21.3
    24.6
    17.9
    23.1
    22.3
    23.1
    22.6
    22.2
    21.3
    SD
    19.9
    22.2
    22.2
    19.4
    20.6
    -
    18.9
    22.2
    18.4
    SF
    24.6
    23.7
    21.3
    19.0
    20.8
    20.7
    -
    20.8
    20.9
    Sea
    21.8
    18.6
    22.6
    22.4
    20.1
    -
    20.8
    21.3
    23.7
    StL
    19.0
    20.1
    21.3
    20.9
    -
    18.4
    23.7
    19.7
    22.6
    TB
    20.7
    19.9
    22.4
    17.9
    21.8
    19.7
    20.0
    -
    19.7
    Ten
    23.1
    21.3
    20.6
    20.8
    18.6
    -
    23.1
    17.9
    21.3
    Was
    20.1
    22.6
    23.7
    21.8
    -
    19.0
    16.8
    18.7
    21.8
    Avg
    20.6
    20.6
    20.6
    20.6
    20.4
    20.3
    20.6
    20.8
    20.7

    TM
    W10
    W11
    W12
    W13
    W14
    W15
    W16
    W17
    Ari
    19.0
    21.8
    21.8
    23.7
    21.8
    20.8
    21.3
    24.6
    Atl
    19.7
    22.3
    19.9
    23.1
    16.8
    23.1
    19.7
    20.8
    Bal
    24.6
    21.3
    21.8
    20.8
    17.9
    17.7
    20.8
    21.3
    Buf
    23.7
    19.4
    18.9
    22.3
    17.7
    19.4
    20.6
    22.2
    Car
    22.3
    20.7
    17.9
    20.8
    22.4
    23.1
    20.8
    19.7
    Chi
    20.7
    17.7
    17.7
    22.2
    20.6
    24.6
    18.4
    19.9
    Cin
    18.6
    21.3
    20.8
    18.6
    23.1
    21.8
    22.6
    21.3
    Cle
    21.8
    23.1
    21.3
    21.3
    18.6
    22.6
    21.3
    18.6
    Dal
    18.7
    20.9
    19.4
    22.6
    20.1
    20.8
    19.0
    20.1
    Den
    22.2
    18.9
    17.7
    19.9
    20.0
    22.2
    18.7
    22.2
    Det
    20.0
    16.8
    18.4
    19.7
    19.9
    17.7
    17.7
    18.4
    GB
    19.9
    20.8
    20.7
    20.1
    17.7
    22.2
    20.0
    20.7
    Hou
    20.8
    -
    23.1
    22.4
    21.3
    16.8
    17.9
    22.3
    Ind
    23.1
    -
    16.8
    22.2
    21.3
    22.3
    23.1
    23.1
    Jac
    17.9
    20.8
    23.1
    17.7
    20.8
    22.4
    22.3
    17.9
    KC
    20.6
    22.2
    18.6
    20.0
    18.9
    18.4
    17.7
    20.6
    Mia
    20.9
    18.7
    23.7
    17.7
    19.0
    18.7
    22.2
    18.9
    Min
    18.4
    17.7
    22.4
    20.6
    20.7
    19.7
    20.9
    20.0
    NE
    18.9
    22.2
    19.0
    17.9
    20.9
    20.6
    19.4
    18.7
    NO
    22.4
    -
    20.1
    20.7
    22.3
    19.9
    22.4
    16.8
    NYG
    21.8
    19.0
    19.7
    18.4
    23.7
    20.9
    18.9
    23.7
    NYJ
    22.2
    20.6
    18.7
    20.9
    22.2
    19.0
    20.1
    19.4
    Oak
    17.7
    19.9
    20.0
    19.4
    18.4
    20.7
    22.2
    17.7
    Phi
    22.6
    20.1
    22.2
    24.6
    19.4
    18.9
    23.7
    20.9
    Pit
    21.3
    -
    22.2
    21.3
    20.8
    21.8
    21.8
    20.8
    SD
    17.7
    20.0
    20.6
    23.1
    18.7
    21.3
    20.7
    17.7
    SF
    20.1
    22.6
    21.3
    21.8
    22.6
    18.6
    24.6
    21.8
    Sea
    21.3
    21.8
    20.9
    19.0
    21.8
    20.0
    21.8
    22.6
    StL
    20.8
    24.6
    22.6
    21.8
    24.6
    21.3
    18.6
    21.8
    TB
    23.1
    18.4
    22.3
    16.8
    23.1
    23.7
    16.8
    22.4
    Ten
    16.8
    22.4
    20.8
    18.7
    19.7
    17.9
    23.1
    23.1
    Was
    19.4
    23.7
    24.6
    18.9
    22.2
    20.1
    19.9
    19.0
    Avg
    20.6
    20.7
    20.6
    20.6
    20.6
    20.6
    20.6
    20.6
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