Special Study - PPR League (12 team) with a FLEX (QB,RB,WR or TE)

Every new NFL season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to veteran fantasy owners that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others.

This is an abbreviated study based on an interested request I received from a subscriber. Going to try and add several of these into the mix, time permitting. In this study, I will be drafting 3rd overall and the interesting twist is 6 points per touchdown pass and a flex player that can be used at (QB,RB,WR or TE). This is a very interesting twist that changes the league significantly.

This particular series is based on...

12-team redraft league / 16-round fantasy draft

Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (QB/RB/WR/TE), 1 DEF, 1 K

Scoring is as follows:

1 pt every 20 passing yards

1 pt every 10 rushing yards

4 points per passing touchdown

6 points per rushing / receiving touchdown

1 point per reception

3 points per field goal / 1 pt per extra point

2 points per interception, fumble recovery and safety

1 pt per sack

6 points per defensive touchdown

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator. The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail at smith@footballguys.com, and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.

Onto the article.

Positives of the draft slot

Third overall pick great spot to be (choose between stud QB and stud RB)

Get the jump on draft slots 1 and 2 in the second round

Negatives of the draft slot

Long wait between odd and even round picks

The unique FLEX rule means you may run a little thin at running back strength if you decide to go the QB/QB start option each week.

Final Draft Table

The Draft

Round 1: QB Tom Brady

What? A quarterback with the 3rd overall pick? You bet this is the right move in a league you can start two quarterbacks. Brady's value intensifies big time with this starting lineup option.

Rounds 2/3: WR Andre Johnson / QB Matt Ryan

This is not the direction I anticipated heading into this draft but no way can I leave the best fantasy receiver on the board with the 22nd overall pick. He gives me the top receiving option to go along with an elite starting quarterback and I feel like I am looking good heading into round three. Heading into the draft, I anticipated going quarterback with two of the first three picks. However I never expected to take a receiver in these slots. I look at the running backs available and the teams drafting around me and make a decision. I believe the majority of these teams will take at least one more quarterback in the next two picks so I should have decent RB prospects to choose from in the next round. I take a deep breath and select Matt Ryan with the pick. I believe he has top-six potential in 2011.

Rounds 4/5: RB Shonn Greene / RB DeAngelo Williams

I am very happy to pickup not one, but two fantasy capable starting running backs here. I cannot lie I am worried when not selecting a running back in the first few rounds but it definitely paid off and now this roster is looking killer. Sure this duo isn't an elite fantasy combo probably BUT it is solid and teamed with my first three picks, this squad is very strong.

Rounds 6/7: WR Marques Colston / RB Jonathan Stewart

With my selection of Colston here my starting lineup is coming together. Coming out with Brady, Ryan, Greene, Williams, Johnson and Colston is going to be the envy of the owners in this league. With my seventh round pick, I consider going Tim Hightower to give me a bye week option at running back. However I like the idea of handcuffing DeAngelo Williams to Jonathan Stewart here, guaranteeing touches most weeks. I still need to find a decent running back to use weeks eight and nine during bye weeks but feel confident I'll find something.

Rounds 8/9: WR Chad Ochocinco / TE Jimmy Graham

I fully expect to take another running back here but nothing leaps out as must draft. The closest thing to it is rookie RB Shane Vereen but I see better value getting an excellent tight end to start each week in Graham. Ochocinco is a swing for the fences player. If his head is screwed on straight, he'll help my team in bye weeks and maybe even supplant Colston as the WR2 for the squad. If he doesn't work out he could be a disaster but in round eight, that is a risk worth taking. I had been hopeful that LaDainian Tomlinson would be available to handcuff to Greene but it isn't meant to be.

At just past the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this...

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady

Matt Ryan

Running Backs

Shonn Greene

DeAngelo Williams

Jonathan Stewart

Wide Receivers

Andre Johnson

Marques Colston

Chad Ochocinco

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham

Place Kickers

none

Defenses

none

There are some questions that need answering in the rounds ahead but in terms of starting power in a fantasy league... WOW. Two excellent starting quarterbacks will put up tons of points most weeks, A trio of receivers capable of big fantasy output, a tight end on the verge of elite territory and decent running back starters in Greene and the Carolina duo. The only real concern here is the huge depth issue at running back that can bite this team during bye weeks. However I see some interesting backs to take a chance on and hopefully I will be able to draft a couple of them. Onto the 2nd half of the draft.

Rounds 10-13: RB Delone Carter / WR Lee Evans / RB Willis McGahee / WR Jordy Nelson

I am very happy here as the plan is coming together nicely. One of the backs I had my eye on earlier is Delone Carter and he has the ability to become the Colts starting running back by the mid point of the season when I need to fill bye weeks. I am happy to get him here. WR Lee Evans is a great fourth option at the position and he is capable of filling starting roles when needed. His only caveat really has been shaky consistency over the years but he is in a better offense now and may surprise. I take McGahee in the 12th round and he could emerge as a surprise starter in Denver. At worst, he'll get some touches and perhaps get a touchdown or two when I need it. Certainly he is worth taking in round 12. I am a bigger Jordy Nelson fan than most but really see him emerging as the WR2 in Green Bay this year which could result in close to 1000 receiving yards. Round thirteen of a draft is for targeting players with upside so swing for the fences with somebody you really like to exceed expectations.

Rounds 14-16: RB Bernard Scott / K Mason Crosby / DEF Atlanta

Managed to find one more running back I like the upside of in Scott, a great kicker in Crosby and a dependable team defense in the Falcons. Normally I would select two defenses in a fantasy squad but with only 16 available spots, I am better here to roll with one for now and perhaps pick up a second once the season begins. The Falcons do not have a bye week until week eight so I have some time to kill before needing a 2nd one.

Final Roster

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady

Matt Ryan

Running Backs

Shonn Greene

DeAngelo Williams

Jonathan Stewart

Delone Carter

Willis McGahee

Bernard Scott

Wide Receivers

Andre Johnson

Marques Colston

Chad Ochocinco

Lee Evans

Jordy Nelson

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham

Place Kickers

Mason Crosby

Defenses

Atlanta Falcons

Final thoughts on this roster

I love this squad. The pair of quarterbacks will start in every week but their bye week so my flex position is nailed other than week seven and eight. I have a great duo as my starting receiver in Johnson and Colston and if Ochocinco has his head in the game, he may emerge as a threat to start as well. Evans and Nelson provide great depth. My weakness without question is at running back. However where it matters the most, at RB1 and RB2, my starters are capable of putting up good production. If one of the depth guys I pegged with potential, performs well, I will be in good shape here. All in all, this team has the look of a very strong contender in 2011.

Last thoughts on this draft

This is an interesting league for sure as there are many paths you can take in building this team. I believe the best chance of success is to secure to top quarterbacks in the first three rounds and build your team around that. I think typically, the 3rd player selected will be a running back but if you have Andre Johnson staring you in the face in a PPR league there, you have to take him and not look back. With the foundation if place, the rest of the team will fall into place and you'll be very happy with how your draft works out. Try to target a great tight end but only if it is a value pick. Do not even think about a kicker or defense until the final two rounds of the draft in this league. Simply not worth it to go any earlier. Good luck and happy drafting.