Quarterback Production Study
By Chris Smith
September 5th, 2011

This study covers production since 2007, with the following qualifications:

  • Minimum to qualify in a season: 150 passing attempts
  • Active players only (I put Carson Palmer in due to his age and circumstance)
  • Fantasy Points
    Type Of Season
    269+
    Elite
    200 - 268
    Great
    140 - 199
    Good
    100 - 139
    Average
    0 - 100
    Poor

    *** Table of all the data is at the bottom of the study ***

    Nine elite fantasy performances (3 last season)

    Two Times (3 players)

  • Peyton Manning
  • Drew Brees
  • Aaron Rodgers
  • One Time (3 players)

  • Michael Vick
  • Tony Romo
  • Tom Brady
  • Twenty-seven great fantasy performances (6 last season)

    Three Times (3 players)

  • Peyton Manning
  • Drew Brees
  • Philip Rivers
  • Two Times (4 players)

  • Matt Schaub
  • Tom Brady
  • Ben Roethlisberger
  • Eli Manning
  • One Time (10 players)

  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Carson Palmer
  • Derek Anderson
  • Donovan McNabb
  • Jay Cutler
  • Josh Freeman
  • Marc Bulger
  • Matt Hasselbeck
  • Michael Vick
  • Tony Romo
  • Twenty-nine good fantasy performances (10 last season)

    Three Times (3 players)

  • Carson Palmer
  • Jay Cutler
  • David Garrard
  • Two Times (5 players)

  • Jon Kitna
  • Matt Cassel
  • Donovan McNabb
  • Joe Flacco
  • Kyle Orton
  • One Time (10 players)

  • Matt Ryan
  • Jason Campbell
  • Tom Brady
  • Tony Romo
  • Tyler Thigpen,
    Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Philip Rivers
  • Eli Manning
  • Ben Roethlisberger
  • Mark Sanchez
  • Twenty-five average fantasy performances (4 last season)

    Two Times (6 players)

  • Ben Roethlisberger
  • Vince Young
  • Eli Manning
  • Donovan McNabb
  • Matt Ryan
  • Matt Hasselbeck
  • One Time (13 players)

  • Sam Bradford
  • Philip Rivers
  • Jason Campbell
  • Kyle Orton
  • Rex Grossman
  • Jake Delhomme,
    Joe Flacco
  • Matt Schaub
  • Alex Smith
  • Tony Romo
  • David Garrard
  • Matt Cassel
  • Chad Henne
  • Forty-Seven poor fantasy performances (11 last season)

    Three Times (6 players)

  • Alex Smith
  • Derek Anderson
  • Jason Campbell
  • Marc Bulger
  • Shaun Hill
  • Trent Edwards
  • Two Times (5 players)

  • Bruce Gradkowski
  • Jake Delhomme
  • Matt Hasselback
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Vince Young
  • One Time (19 players)

  • Brady Quinn
  • Chad Henne
  • Colt McCoy
  • Dan Orlovsky
  • David Garrard
  • Jimmy Clausen
  • Jon Kitna
  • Josh Freeman
  • Josh McCown
  • Kellen Clemons,
    Kevin Kolb
  • Mark Sanchez
  • Matt Leinart
  • Matt Schaub
  • Matthew Stafford
  • Rex Grossman
  • Seneca Wallace
  • Tarvaris Jackson
  • Tony Romo
  • Interesting Tidbits

  • Only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have been at the great level or higher in all five seasons
  • Aaron Rodgers has been at the great level or higher in each of the past three seasons
  • Alex Smith has reached the 'average' level in just one of the four seasons
  • David Garrard has had three 'good' fantasy seasons but never reached the 'great' tier
  • Donovan McNabb has three 'good' or better fantasy efforts in the last five years. He never had an elite campaign over this span
  • Eli Manning has had just two great fantasy performances over the five seasons
  • Jay Cutler has had four good or better fantasy seasons in the five years
  • Matt Hasselbeck has had four 'average' or worse fantasy seasons in five years
  • Matt Schaub has had two straight 'great' performances. He just missed an elite performance in 2009
  • Michael Vick has had an elite and a great performance in his past two years (2006 and 2010)
  • Philip Rivers has had three straight great performances and missed the elite level last year by less than 3 points
  • Tom Brady has had at least 271 fantasy points in all four seasons (missed one entire year due to injury). Only one elite campaign however back in 2007
  • MOST QUIRKY STAT... Tony Romo has had one season at each of the five levels from 2006 to 2010
  • Data Table

    Quarterback
    Year
    Comp
    Att
    Yards
    Y/A
    TDs
    INTs
    FPts
    Tom Brady
    2007
    398
    578
    4806
    8.31
    50
    8
    453.90
    Aaron Rodgers
    2009
    350
    541
    4435
    8.20
    30
    7
    395.85
    Drew Brees
    2008
    413
    635
    5069
    7.98
    34
    17
    372.45
    Peyton Manning
    2006
    362
    556
    4397
    7.91
    31
    9
    362.45
    Tony Romo
    2007
    335
    520
    4211
    8.10
    36
    19
    360.65
    Drew Brees
    2009
    362
    513
    4395
    8.57
    34
    11
    359.75
    Aaron Rodgers
    2010
    312
    474
    3922
    8.27
    28
    10
    357.70
    Michael Vick
    2010
    233
    371
    3018
    8.13
    21
    6
    350.60
    Peyton Manning
    2010
    447
    675
    4675
    6.93
    33
    17
    350.55
    Philip Rivers
    2010
    357
    542
    4712
    8.69
    30
    13
    347.80
    Aaron Rodgers
    2008
    341
    536
    4037
    7.53
    28
    13
    345.35
    Matt Schaub
    2009
    395
    581
    4763
    8.20
    29
    15
    345.35
    Tom Brady
    2010
    324
    492
    3900
    7.93
    36
    4
    344.10
    Jay Cutler
    2008
    383
    615
    4519
    7.35
    25
    18
    340.15
    Peyton Manning
    2009
    393
    571
    4500
    7.88
    33
    16
    339.70
    Drew Brees
    2010
    446
    655
    4626
    7.06
    32
    21
    338.80
    Tony Romo
    2009
    347
    550
    4484
    8.15
    26
    9
    335.70
    Philip Rivers
    2008
    311
    477
    4000
    8.39
    34
    11
    333.10
    Peyton Manning
    2007
    337
    515
    4041
    7.85
    31
    14
    329.55
    Tom Brady
    2009
    371
    565
    4398
    7.78
    28
    13
    329.10
    Ben Roethlisberger
    2009
    337
    505
    4328
    8.57
    26
    12
    328.50
    Drew Brees
    2007
    441
    653
    4416
    6.76
    28
    18
    327.20
    Philip Rivers
    2009
    317
    486
    4254
    8.75
    28
    9
    326.80
    Drew Brees
    2006
    357
    554
    4421
    7.98
    26
    11
    317.25
    Derek Anderson
    2007
    298
    527
    3786
    7.18
    29
    19
    312.10
    Marc Bulger
    2006
    371
    588
    4307
    7.32
    24
    7
    308.75
    Matt Hasselbeck
    2007
    352
    561
    3966
    7.07
    28
    12
    308.10
    Ben Roethlisberger
    2007
    265
    405
    3158
    7.80
    32
    11
    307.30
    Eli Manning
    2010
    339
    539
    4003
    7.43
    31
    25
    306.25
    Michael Vick
    2006
    204
    390
    2473
    6.34
    20
    13
    305.95
    Matt Schaub
    2010
    364
    572
    4354
    7.61
    24
    12
    304.80
    Carson Palmer
    2006
    324
    523
    4036
    7.72
    28
    13
    304.30
    Josh Freeman
    2010
    291
    473
    3456
    7.31
    25
    5
    304.30
    Peyton Manning
    2008
    371
    555
    4002
    7.21
    27
    12
    304.20
    Donovan McNabb
    2008
    345
    571
    3914
    6.85
    23
    11
    303.80
    Eli Manning
    2009
    317
    509
    4021
    7.90
    27
    14
    301.05
    Matt Ryan
    2010
    355
    568
    3688
    6.49
    28
    9
    299.70
    Jon Kitna
    2006
    372
    598
    4210
    7.04
    21
    22
    299.50
    Matt Cassel
    2008
    328
    518
    3692
    7.13
    21
    11
    297.20
    Carson Palmer
    2007
    373
    574
    4133
    7.20
    26
    20
    291.75
    Jay Cutler
    2009
    336
    555
    3666
    6.61
    27
    26
    288.30
    Donovan McNabb
    2009
    266
    443
    3553
    8.02
    22
    10
    287.75
    Carson Palmer
    2010
    359
    581
    3933
    6.77
    26
    20
    285.65
    Joe Flacco
    2010
    303
    486
    3581
    7.37
    25
    10
    283.05
    David Garrard
    2009
    314
    516
    3596
    6.97
    15
    10
    280.10
    Jason Campbell
    2009
    327
    507
    3618
    7.14
    20
    15
    275.60
    David Garrard
    2008
    335
    532
    3634
    6.83
    15
    12
    273.10
    Tom Brady
    2006
    319
    515
    3535
    6.86
    24
    12
    270.95
    David Garrard
    2010
    236
    365
    2729
    7.48
    23
    15
    270.35
    Kyle Orton
    2009
    337
    542
    3802
    7.01
    21
    12
    269.20
    Jay Cutler
    2007
    297
    467
    3497
    7.49
    20
    14
    267.45
    Jay Cutler
    2010
    257
    427
    3248
    7.61
    23
    16
    267.30
    Tony Romo
    2008
    276
    451
    3449
    7.65
    26
    14
    266.85
    Matt Cassel
    2010
    260
    447
    3106
    6.95
    26
    7
    264.80
    Kyle Orton
    2010
    293
    498
    3652
    7.33
    20
    9
    263.90
    Jon Kitna
    2007
    354
    562
    4059
    7.22
    18
    21
    261.65
    Joe Flacco
    2009
    315
    499
    3613
    7.24
    21
    12
    258.85
    Donovan McNabb
    2007
    291
    473
    3324
    7.03
    19
    7
    258.80
    Tyler Thigpen
    2008
    230
    420
    2605
    6.20
    18
    12
    256.25
    Ryan Fitzpatrick
    2010
    255
    441
    3015
    6.84
    23
    15
    254.85
    Philip Rivers
    2006
    285
    460
    3387
    7.36
    22
    8
    254.65
    Carson Palmer
    2009
    282
    466
    3096
    6.64
    21
    12
    254.20
    Eli Manning
    2007
    297
    528
    3336
    6.32
    23
    20
    251.70
    Ben Roethlisberger
    2010
    236
    381
    3159
    8.29
    17
    5
    250.85
    Mark Sanchez
    2010
    278
    507
    3291
    6.49
    17
    12
    249.25
    Ben Roethlisberger
    2006
    281
    470
    3529
    7.51
    18
    23
    247.25
    Sam Bradford
    2010
    353
    589
    3504
    5.95
    18
    15
    244.20
    Vince Young
    2006
    184
    355
    2199
    6.19
    12
    12
    243.25
    Eli Manning
    2008
    288
    478
    3237
    6.77
    21
    10
    243.05
    Eli Manning
    2006
    302
    523
    3244
    6.20
    24
    18
    242.30
    Matt Ryan
    2008
    265
    433
    3441
    7.95
    16
    11
    241.85
    Ben Roethlisberger
    2008
    282
    469
    3315
    7.07
    17
    14
    241.75
    Donovan McNabb
    2006
    180
    316
    2648
    8.38
    18
    6
    237.60
    Philip Rivers
    2007
    277
    460
    3152
    6.85
    21
    15
    235.90
    Jason Campbell
    2008
    315
    506
    3245
    6.41
    13
    6
    234.05
    Kyle Orton
    2008
    273
    466
    2981
    6.40
    18
    12
    231.95
    Rex Grossman
    2006
    261
    479
    3197
    6.67
    23
    20
    231.85
    Matt Ryan
    2009
    263
    451
    2916
    6.47
    22
    14
    230.70
    Jake Delhomme
    2008
    246
    413
    3284
    7.95
    15
    11
    227.30
    Joe Flacco
    2008
    257
    428
    2971
    6.94
    14
    12
    226.75
    Donovan McNabb
    2010
    275
    470
    3385
    7.20
    14
    15
    225.15
    Matt Schaub
    2008
    251
    380
    3054
    8.04
    15
    10
    221.40
    Alex Smith
    2006
    259
    445
    2903
    6.52
    16
    15
    221.05
    Tony Romo
    2006
    220
    337
    2906
    8.62
    19
    12
    219.60
    David Garrard
    2007
    208
    325
    2509
    7.72
    18
    3
    218.65
    Matt Hasselbeck
    2009
    293
    487
    3029
    6.22
    17
    16
    215.55
    Matt Cassel
    2009
    273
    495
    2924
    5.91
    16
    16
    213.50
    Chad Henne
    2010
    298
    486
    3271
    6.73
    15
    18
    211.25
    Matt Hasselbeck
    2010
    266
    443
    2998
    6.77
    12
    17
    204.90
    Vince Young
    2007
    238
    383
    2547
    6.65
    9
    17
    203.65
    Trent Edwards
    2008
    245
    374
    2699
    7.22
    11
    10
    198.85
    Jake Delhomme
    2006
    263
    431
    2803
    6.50
    17
    11
    198.45
    Shaun Hill
    2010
    256
    415
    2679
    6.46
    16
    12
    197.95
    Jason Campbell
    2007
    250
    417
    2700
    6.47
    12
    11
    196.40
    Jason Campbell
    2010
    194
    327
    2387
    7.30
    13
    8
    191.25
    Jon Kitna
    2010
    209
    318
    2366
    7.44
    16
    12
    191.20
    Matt Hasselbeck
    2006
    210
    371
    2440
    6.58
    18
    15
    190.00
    Chad Henne
    2009
    274
    451
    2878
    6.38
    12
    14
    187.10
    Alex Smith
    2009
    224
    371
    2356
    6.35
    18
    12
    182.40
    Matt Leinart
    2006
    213
    373
    2542
    6.82
    11
    9
    178.60
    Marc Bulger
    2008
    252
    441
    2728
    6.19
    11
    13
    173.20
    Mark Sanchez
    2009
    196
    363
    2444
    6.73
    12
    20
    172.80
    Alex Smith
    2010
    204
    341
    2370
    6.95
    14
    10
    170.70
    Shaun Hill
    2008
    181
    288
    2046
    7.10
    13
    8
    169.80
    Matthew Stafford
    2009
    201
    377
    2267
    6.01
    13
    20
    168.15
    Vince Young
    2009
    152
    259
    1879
    7.25
    10
    7
    167.05
    Tarvaris Jackson
    2007
    171
    294
    1912
    6.50
    9
    12
    163.60
    Ryan Fitzpatrick
    2008
    220
    370
    1908
    5.16
    8
    9
    153.70
    Marc Bulger
    2007
    221
    378
    2392
    6.33
    11
    15
    149.90
    Matt Schaub
    2007
    192
    289
    2241
    7.75
    9
    9
    144.25
    David Garrard
    2006
    145
    241
    1735
    7.20
    10
    9
    142.25
    Josh Freeman
    2009
    159
    290
    1849
    6.38
    10
    18
    130.65
    Bruce Gradkowski
    2006
    176
    327
    1659
    5.07
    9
    10
    125.15
    Seneca Wallace
    2008
    141
    242
    1532
    6.33
    11
    3
    125.00
    Derek Anderson
    2010
    169
    327
    2065
    6.32
    7
    10
    123.75
    Tony Romo
    2010
    148
    213
    1604
    7.53
    11
    7
    121.00
    Colt McCoy
    2010
    136
    222
    1596
    7.19
    7
    8
    120.70
    Jake Delhomme
    2009
    178
    321
    2007
    6.25
    8
    18
    120.35
    Ryan Fitzpatrick
    2009
    127
    228
    1422
    6.24
    9
    10
    117.20
    Derek Anderson
    2008
    142
    283
    1615
    5.71
    9
    8
    114.55
    Vince Young
    2010
    91
    154
    1241
    8.06
    10
    3
    111.75
    Jason Campbell
    2006
    110
    207
    1297
    6.27
    10
    6
    110.05
    Brady Quinn
    2009
    136
    256
    1329
    5.19
    8
    7
    109.05
    Dan Orlovsky
    2008
    143
    255
    1616
    6.34
    8
    8
    107.70
    Trent Edwards
    2007
    151
    269
    1631
    6.06
    7
    8
    106.45
    Kellen Clemens
    2007
    130
    250
    1529
    6.12
    5
    10
    103.55
    Josh McCown
    2007
    111
    191
    1151
    6.03
    10
    11
    101.45
    Marc Bulger
    2009
    140
    246
    1469
    5.97
    5
    6
    89.65
    Kevin Kolb
    2010
    113
    185
    1180
    6.38
    7
    7
    86.50
    Jimmy Clausen
    2010
    157
    299
    1555
    5.20
    3
    9
    86.45
    Trent Edwards
    2009
    110
    183
    1172
    6.40
    6
    7
    86.20
    Rex Grossman
    2007
    122
    225
    1411
    6.27
    4
    7
    82.25
    Matt Hasselbeck
    2008
    109
    209
    1216
    5.82
    5
    10
    77.50
    Shaun Hill
    2009
    87
    155
    943
    6.08
    5
    2
    72.15
    Bruce Gradkowski
    2010
    83
    158
    1059
    6.70
    5
    7
    70.05
    Derek Anderson
    2009
    81
    181
    888
    4.91
    3
    9
    60.10
    Alex Smith
    2007
    94
    193
    914
    4.74
    2
    4
    58.60

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