Unlike most NFL seasons, this upcoming one may be even more difficult to predict, especially when it comes to individual fantasy performances. Due to the lockout, players missed OTAs, all mini camps and organized workouts. As a matter of fact, many players did not even receive their playbooks until the lockout was lifted in mid-July. Imagine a rock and roll band that adds a new lead singer, drummer, base player, manager and producer; then practices for just three or four weeks; and then heads out on the road playing for the next 16 weeks. You can bet that their familiarity with each other and material will be limited - especially early on in the tour. I think might be seeing a similar situation for many NFL teams in the early going of the 2011 season.

Some Of the Changes

Let's start at the top and look at the teams that have changed head coaches:

Carolina - Ron Rivera

Cleveland - Pat Shurmur

Dallas - Jason Garrett (interim designation removed)

Denver Broncos - John Fox

Minnesota - Leslie Frazier

Oakland Raiders - Hue Jackson

San Francisco - Jim Harbaugh

Tennessee - Mike Munchak

Getting use to a new head coach can take time, but this year players don't have that luxury.

To go along with the changes at the top, 12 teams have new offensive coordinators:

Carolina - Rob Chudzinski

Cincinnati - Jay Gruden

Cleveland - HC Pat Shurmur

Kansas City - Bill Muir

Miami - Brian Daboll

Minnesota - Bill Musgrave

New England - Bill O'Brien

Oakland - Al Saunders

St. Louis - Josh McDaniels

San Francisco - Greg Roman

Seattle - Darrell Bevell

Tennessee - Chris Palmer

We've often heard over the years how defenses usually run a little head of the offense, especially early in camp. Will that be the case this year? Thirteen teams have changed defensive coordinators going into the season:

Arizona - Ray Horton

Baltimore - Chuck Pagano

Carolina - Sean McDermott

Cleveland - Dick Jauron

Dallas - Rob Ryan

Denver - Dennis Allen

Houston - Wade Phillips

Minnesota - Fred Pagac

Oakland - Chuck Bresnahan

Philadelphia - Juan Castillo

San Diego - Greg Manusky

San Francisco - Vic Fangio

Tennessee - Jerry Gray

At least seven teams will be starting new quarterbacks (Arizona, Cincinnati, Carolina, Minnesota, Seattle, Tennessee and Washington) and with a condensed free agent signing period, getting a good gauge on the chemistry between players may not be realized right away.

How To Approach Your 2011 Fantasy Draft

We were once told by former All-Pro defensive end Alfred Williams that coaches like to approach an NFL season in four game increments. This year will be no different. Fantasy players can take a cue from this approach too. It may take the first four weeks of the regular season for player roles to be defined. There will be teams, especially those with a lot of "newness" that will struggle more than others early on with their offense. Those teams that did not see major overhauls at critical positions may really have an advantage in the early going.

The first five or six rounds of a fantasy draft are always critical as you assemble the core of your team, but this might be the year to avoid taking unnecessary risks. Remember, the key is production. Look for players, especially in the early rounds, that are on teams with more stable situations. This is probably not the season to gamble much early in the draft. I think you can assess the risk by estimating the stability of each team. Teams in Tier 1 appear to be in the lower risk category. This isn't to say that you shouldn't draft players from the Tier 2 category, but you don't want to load up on too many from uncertain situations.

Looking at Tier 2, here are some draft options within the first six to seven rounds that still should not be overlooked...

Arizona

Kevin Kolb - QB2

Chris Wells - RB 3

Ryan Williams - RB4

Larry Fitzgerald - WR1

Carolina

DeAngelo Williams - RB2/3

Steve Smith - WR3/4

Cincinnati

Cedric Benson - RB2/3

A.J. Green- WR 4

Cleveland

Peyton Hillis - RB2/3

Denver

Kyle Orton - QB2/3

Willis McGahee - RB2/3

Knowshon Moreno - RB3

Brandon Lloyd - WR2/3

Miami

Reggie Bush - RB3/4

Daniel Thomas - RB4

Brandon Marshall - WR2/3

Oakland

Darren McFadden - RB 2/3

San Francisco

Frank Gore - RB1

Michael Crabtree - WR 2/3

Vernon Davis - TE1

Seattle

Marshawn Lynch - RB3

Sidney Rice - WR3

Tennessee

Matt Hasselbeck - QB2

Chris Johnson - RB1

Kenny Britt - WR3

Washington

Ryan Torain - RB3

Santana Moss - WR3/4

Chris Cooley - TE1