Fantasy Football - Footballguys Fantasy Football

Week: PRE-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-P1-P2-P3-P4

MyFBG Support

Old Running Backs, New Teams

By David Yudkin

August 31st, 2010

This year, there are several "old" running backs moving to new locales, and the question on many people's minds should be, "But how have they done?" By old, I mean a running back that is 31 or older. By "new locale," I mean a running back that played on one team at age 30 but on another team at age 31. As far as a sample size and a data set, the only other requirement was that at some point the running back would have had to have ranked in the Top 20 fantasy running backs at one point in his career. In the data set, there were seven RBs that at one point ranked as the #1 overall fantasy RB and 37 different players that at one point ranked in the Top Ten running backs in at least one season. Only seasons played from after the league merger (1970) were included.

This year, that leaves several notable backs that fit the profile. Most notable, of course, is former All World superstar and ex-Charger LaDainian Tomlinson, who as a Jet is looking to prove that he is not washed up. Tomlinson has effectively replaced Thomas Jones, who also meets the criteria in moving on from New York to Kansas City. Injury prone and one time lightning in a bottle back Brian Westbrook will be a 49er after playing his entire career with the Eagles. Once a fantasy titan, Larry Johnson heads to the nation's capital while former fantasy RB1s Chester Taylor and Ladell Betts are also headed to new destinations. Michael Bennett rounds out the field of backs that fit the criteria and have been signed to a new team, and if teams get desperate, there are a few other old free agents still unsigned that could be available (Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Edgerrin James, and LaMont Jordan).

In terms of evaluation and analysis, this type of situation could best fall under the theory of relativity. Most 30 year old running backs performed so-so in the first place, so expecting a major revival at 31 on a new team would be a bit optimistic. To that end, if a RB had done well at age 30, one would think that his team would want to bring him back the following season (Thomas Jones being a notable exception).

There were 60 running backs that fit the profile. In their age-30 season (in this case considered their "old team"), there were eight players that ranked in the Top 25:

Mike Anderson 10
Lamar Smith 15
Terry Allen 17
Wilbert Montgomery 19
Franco Harris 19
Herschel Walker 21
Eddie George 22
Macarthur Lane 25

In the age 31 or older bucket, there were only three players that ranked in the Top 25 with their new squads:

Marcus Allen 5
Terry Allen 17
Larry Csonka 23

Overall, the entire group saw their combined fantasy points total drop off 33% while their average fantasy ranked slipped from 49 to 77. I realize that every era in football is different, but last season it took 108 fantasy points to rank in the Top 40 and 147 fantasy points to rank in the Top 25. In the "31+ years old and changing teams" bracket, only 8 backs have hit the 108 fantasy points marker and just three hit the 147 benchmark. I have included a chart with all the players listed for comparison's sake.

Thomas Jones does appear to be the outlier here. He far and away score the most points as a 30 year old before moving on, joining Mike Anderson as the only RBs to have scored 200+ fantasy points and still having pack his bags. Tomlinson scored the fifth most points in the "30 year old moving teams" side of the ledger.

Running Back	Age	Year	Team	FPs	Rk	Year	Team	FPs	Rk	BestFPs	BestRk
Marcus Allen	33	1993	KAN	190	5	1992	RAI	76	47	316	1
Larry Csonka	33	1979	MIA	169	23	1978	NYG	74	59	169	5
Terry Allen	31	1999	NWE	156	17	1998	WAS	95	33	281	1
Lamar Smith	32	2002	CAR	132	30	2001	MIA	168	15	230	11
Warrick Dunn	33	2008	TAM	120	30	2007	ATL	124	33	210	12
Tony Dorsett	34	1988	DEN	119	30	1987	DAL	75	44	236	3
Calvin Hill	31	1978	CLE	104	45	1977	WAS	47	75	202	4
Eric Dickerson	32	1992	RAI	99	33	1991	IND	99	33	341	1
O.J. Simpson	31	1978	SFO	95	52	1977	BUF	69	64	362	1
Antowain Smith	32	2004	TEN	92	38	2003	NWE	91	39	213	9
Terry Allen	33	2001	BAL	91	38	2000	NOR	31	71	281	1
Mike Pruitt	31	1985	2TM	90	43	1984	CLE	55	65	233	5
Antowain Smith	33	2005	NOR	89	40	2004	TEN	92	38	213	9
Roger Craig	32	1992	MIN	82	42	1991	RAI	79	44	297	2
Roger Craig	31	1991	RAI	79	44	1990	SFO	70	49	297	2
Eddie George	31	2004	DAL	76	41	2003	TEN	149	22	292	3
Dorsey Levens	34	2004	PHI	74	42	2003	NYG	42	70	253	3
Michael Pittman	33	2008	DEN	67	58	2007	TAM	48	66	192	16
Dorsey Levens	32	2002	PHI	66	50	2001	GNB	38	71	253	3
Joe Washington	32	1985	ATL	66	59	1984	WAS	33	82	203	11
MacArthur Lane	33	1975	KAN	63	62	1974	GNB	104	25	212	2
Darrin Nelson	32	1991	MIN	54	60	1990	SDG	4	127	181	13
Fred Taylor	33	2009	NWE	53	64	2008	JAX	71	56	266	4
Joe Morris	31	1991	CLE	49	64	1990	DNP	N/A	N/A	281	2
Emmitt Smith	34	2003	ARI	48	63	2002	DAL	136	26	365	1
Earnest Byner	32	1994	CLE	44	64	1993	WAS	36	73	206	4
Herschel Walker	33	1995	NYG	42	67	1994	PHI	145	21	244	3
Dorsey Levens	33	2003	NYG	42	70	2002	PHI	66	50	253	3
Stephen Davis	32	2006	STL	33	69	2005	CAR	131	26	254	4
Thurman Thomas	34	2000	MIA	31	69	1999	BUF	25	88	283	2
Terry Allen	32	2000	NOR	31	71	1999	NWE	156	17	281	1
Wilbert Montgomery	31	1985	DET	31	82	1984	PHI	141	19	285	3
Mike Anderson	33	2006	BAL	30	73	2005	DEN	201	10	256	4
Ken Willard	31	1974	STL	26	96	1973	SFO	65	58	165	4
Marv Hubbard	31	1977	DET	25	107	1976	DNP	N/A	N/A	144	14
Ahman Green	32	2009	GNB	24	87	2008	HOU	51	66	345	3
Herschel Walker	34	1996	DAL	23	90	1995	NYG	42	67	244	3
Craig Heyward	31	1997	STL	22	93	1996	ATL	67	52	191	12
Cid Edwards	32	1975	CHI	22	101	1974	SDG	36	79	166	13
Tommy Mason	32	1971	WAS	19	98	1970	RAM	31	80	182	7
Lawrence McCutcheon	31	1981	BUF	18	119	1980	2TM	57	60	213	4
Charlie Garner	32	2004	TAM	17	98	2003	OAK	118	31	256	7
Franco Harris	34	1984	SEA	17	104	1983	PIT	171	19	220	4
Garrison Hearst	33	2004	DEN	16	100	2003	SFO	122	29	265	5
Edgerrin James	31	2009	SEA	14	103	2008	ARI	78	52	338	1
Adrian Murrell	33	2003	DAL	14	107	2002	DNP	N/A	N/A	181	12
Greg Pruitt	31	1982	RAI	11	100	1981	CLE	100	38	199	5
Jim Nance	31	1973	NYJ	10	110	1972	DNP	N/A	N/A	222	4
Cullen Bryant	32	1983	SEA	10	113	1982	RAM	0	162	155	14
LaMont Jordan	31	2009	DEN	9	118	2008	NWE	60	61	225	8
Lamar Smith	33	2003	NOR	6	125	2002	CAR	132	30	230	11
James Brooks	32	1992	2TM	4	114	1991	CIN	116	27	231	6
Lydell Mitchell	31	1980	RAM	4	150	1979	SDG	43	89	264	2
Shaun Alexander	31	2008	WAS	3	140	2007	SEA	109	35	364	1
Dave Osborn	33	1976	GNB	2	0	1975	MIN	15	108	142	14
Tom Woodeshick	31	1972	STL	2	132	1971	PHI	28	83	166	10
Craig Heyward	32	1998	IND	2	135	1997	STL	22	93	191	12
Ron Carpenter	31	1986	RAM	0	146	1985	NYG	36	79	148	16
Tony Collins	31	1990	MIA	0	150	1989	DNP	N/A	N/A	191	14
Cullen Bryant	36	1987	RAM	0	165	1986	DNP	N/A	N/A	155	14
Average	32.2			49	77			71	49	237	6

Here were the candidates eligible this season to join the bigger list above after the year is up:

Running Back	Age	Year	Team	Year	Team	FPs	Rk	BestFPs	BestRk
Thomas Jones	32	2010	KAN	2009	NYJ	230	6	242	5
LaDainian Tomlinson	31	2010	NYJ	2009	SDC	160	19	431	1
Chester Taylor	31	2010	CHI	2009	MIN	85	44	186	12
Larry Johnson	31	2010	WAS	2009	2TM	64	56	335	2
Brian Westbrook	31	2010	SFO	2009	PHI	58	61	282	2
Ladell Betts	31	2010	NOS	2009	WAS	51	66	190	10
Michael Bennett	32	2010	OAK	2009	SDC	13	108	201	17
Jamal Lewis	31	2010	FA	2009	CLE	59	59	311	4
Ahman Green	33	2010	FA	2009	GNB	24	87	345	3
Edgerrin James	32	2010	FA	2009	SEA	14	103	338	1
LaMont Jordan	32	2010	FA	2009	DEN	9	118	225	8

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to yudkin@footballguys.com.

Our FREE daily email is packed with all the fantasy analysis you need.

Sitemap Advertise With Us Help/Support Privacy Policy

Inside HomeClose

Subscription Services

RSS Feeds

Inside ArticleClose

Reports

Other

ForumsClose

Other

Players ChampionshipClose

Subscriber Contest

Who Do I Start Pick 'Em

Inside FreeClose

MyFBG (Custom Everything)Close

Projections

Rankings

Community Rankings (Wisdom Of Crowds)

Lists

Inside news/podcastsClose

Podcasts

Inside statsClose

Inside toolsClose