The Weekly Gut Check examines the players, strategies and guidelines fantasy football owners use to make personnel decisions.

Inspiration From The Twitterverse

It's been a good start to the season for yours truly thanks to following some rules of the road that have translated from the spreadsheets to the box score. But it's time to use those guidelines and do cross check what's transpired thus far in 2010, because we need to learn where those hairpin turns are going to occur. Maybe we'll be able to do a little time travel several weeks ahead and come back with some future navigational insights.

We'll start this out with some thoughts from the Twitterverse. I asked my followers to share what's on their minds in the format of my old 20/20 Hindsight column subheads:

@V12themonster tweeted, " Who would have thought so many top RBs would be potential liabilities?"

With September in the books, let's look back at the consensus top-12 preseason RB rankings of the Footballguys staff:

Its still very early, and I believe we'll see some of these backs return to the top 12 by season's end, but at this point only 4 of the projected RB1s are performing to this level.

As I mentioned in this preseason strategy article, 62 percent of the backs that finished as a top-12 performer did not repeat that feat the following year and this percentage is accumulated from six seasons of data. If we were to look at the top 24, only 54 percent of the top 24 backs in 2008 finished as RB1s or RB2s in 2009, and for a six-year period that percentage is 53 percent.

In English, what I'm saying is that if you study the data you would have thought about it and hopefully took action. Or, you could have read this column in the preseason because in the aforementioned article, I laid out a draft strategy that accounted for this trend. I even accounted for the fact that if you have one of the top five picks you should take an RB, which if you look at the chart again, you'll notice that three of the four top-12 backs in September were top-5 picks - sure things.

This leads us to the corollary to @V12themonster's statement, brought to you by @FootballRobert: "Who would have thought successful RBs were so cheap: Hillis, Bradshaw, DMac, Foster?"

It only stands to reason that when it comes to backs, 62 percent of the top 12 and 53 percent of the top 24 don't return to this level the year after they achieve it that most of the backs that do take their place will have average draft positions of round four or later.

Let's look at the top-12 runners after September.

Conceivably if you waited to pick backs after round four, you could have done very well. Foster and Best were high-rising players, but in some leagues they were still available in rounds 4-5. Bradshaw and Tomlinson were the sweet-spot bargains if you followed my advice to pick backs between rounds 6-10 with the hope on hitting on at least two. Hillis has been the ultimate waiver wire gem-swing for the fences player in this draft.

And a quick side note, does everyone notice that 25 percent of this list is comprised of late-round NFL picks or undrafted free agents?

But it is only week four and this list is likely to see a significant shakeup during the next 6-8 weeks. Are there any telltale signs of a drop off for any of these runners? I think there are three things to examine here: opportunity, health, and role in the offense.

Johnson, Gore, Foster, and Peterson are the obvious workhorses. I think they are probably the safest bets to remain steady producers because they are in offenses with questions surrounding their respective passing games. Hillis has 66 carries in essentially two games. If you're an opposing linebacker, you just have to look straight into the backfield beyond the quarterback to know where the only real offensive threat is in Cleveland.

Mendenhall has the carries to qualify as a workhorse but with Roethlisberger returning next week, I think it's valid to question whether the third-year back will continue this torrid pace of carries. I doubt it. This invokes the role in the offense guideline, because Mendenhall's is going to change just enough to make a difference. I think Mendenhall makes a nice low-end No.1, but the Steelers will have shorter drives with longer passes in the coming weeks. I have a feeling we're about to see just how much Mike Wallace has improved when Roethlisberger's arm and scrambling ability return to Heinz Field.

Tomlinson is deservedly the lead back in New York and Shonn Greene's development is happening at a luxurious pace, but Tomlinson isn't getting workhorse type of carries and his receiving numbers are good, they aren't making up for it enough to list him as a sure thing. What is making a difference is that excellent Jets offensive line. But as the season progresses, I think Greene gets more opportunities, Sanchez continues to throw the ball more often, and Tomlinson becomes a better version of Marion Barber III - a strong RB2.

I think health is the concern for McCoy, McFadden and Bradshaw. McCoy's rib fracture will probably limit him for 3-4 weeks, regardless of how long he's actually away from the game. His yard per carry average is nice, but its something that I suspect is more Vick-aided than some want to believe. He's a back that relies on his agility and slick moves. I think his rib injury and the absence of Vick for at least a week will really hamper McCoy for the short term. I think he is in for a rough month and only then will he possibly rebound.

McFadden has a surprising number of attempts. And he's getting enough love as a receiver that you have to like what you see. With Bruce Gradkowski now (deservedly) at the helm of the Raiders' ship McFadden has a chance to do some special things, but his hamstring injury makes him an iffier option. While I'm happy to see he's matured with his decision-making and consistency, I'm hoping he can hold up as a feature back. He had the same hamstring injury in camp that cost him three weeks. Right now, I have concerns and I think his production is heading into a temporary valley. This time next month, he could be a nice buy-low. I'd rather have him than McCoy.

Bradshaw is another back with great talent, good numbers, and lots of opportunities that ended the last game with an injury to a body part that has been chronically weak in the past. NBC's Chris Collinsworth made an astute observation of Bradshaw's running style on Sunday night, comparing it to Adrian Peterson's. I see it. I'm hopeful the ankle injury isn't too serious, because if he can continue to play he'll hold steady.

So if we're keeping score, you can keep Gore, Peterson, Johnson, Foster, and Hillis on this list. Mendenhall is a borderline. Bradshaw and Tomlinson see a dip to high-RB2 status. And we see a drop-off from McFadden and McCoy with a rebound from McFadden once he's healthy.

That leaves Jahvid Best. The Lions rookie doesn't have the line, he has a grade-two turf toe injury, and his carry-count doesn't appear to be high enough to continue to be an elite difference maker. Although I think that 50-point outburst in week two will be the best game of his rookie year, I think Best remains a good fantasy starter because the toe injury seems to be minor and Shaun Hill is getting more comfortable in this offense. This Lions team seems very close to reeling off a few wins and I think Best will be a big part of it. Expect his numbers to slide to the mid-to-low RB1 range, but I don't think he'll drop off the map as long as the Lions can keep Calvin Johnson involved and productive.

Who Makes the Jump?

My short list is based on a combination of talent and opportunity. While I believe some good players lose a chance to produce due to lack of opportunity, I believe excellence eventually rises to the top. These four players have "it," and I would at least bet on two of them to make a big climb up the board by the time month two is over.

Ray Rice: Rice has faced the Steelers, Jets, and Bengals in September, the fantasy equivalent of death, destruction, and mayhem. Not only did Rice survive, but he also managed to escape with only a knee bruise. The Ravens made it a point in the preseason to say that they are a run-first team and I believe they will return to this formula. The fact that he has zero touchdowns after four games should actually give you a twisted feeling of excitement because it should mean he's about have some bigger weeks ahead. With Denver, New England, Buffalo, Miami, Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay on the docket for the rest of the fantasy regular season, you'll remember why you drafted Rice so early.

Marshawn Lynch: If Lynch liked living in Buffalo, he's going to love Seattle. The Bills 2007 first-round, draft pick is one of the better load-carrying, between the tackles backs in the league that simply hasn't gotten the chance to put it on display. I stated on Twitter yesterday that I thought Lynch would have been the 2007 Offensive Rookie of The Year if the Vikings drafted him over Adrian Peterson. This prompted a newspaper editor from a Minnesota newspaper to reply that Lynch would have been in a time-share "at best," with Chester Taylor. Well, from what I recall, Adrian Peterson was in a "time-share" with Chester Taylor in 2007 and he did win ROY. Someone want to explain the difference to me? The gap in overall skill between Lynch and Peterson isn't as different as many might think. Peterson is a force of nature physically, but he can be extremely undisciplined. Lynch was a more versatile runner with better technique when he arrived in the NFL, but his discipline problems unfortunately pricey ones that occurred away from the field of play. I'd rather have Peterson too, but the point is that Lynch is a powerful, versatile, patient runner that earned the respect of opponents within his old division. Pete Carroll already said on Tuesday that he plans to use Lynch a lot and I believe him.

Ricky Williams: Ronnie Brown is a heck of a runner, but I think he buys into the idea that he's a Ladainian Tomlinson style of runner. To be that kind of player, you need blockers that open big holes or operate from a zone attack. The Tony Sparano-Bill Parcells approach to running the football is to road grade with a power attack that is focused on getting the back through one area of the line. This means runs with pulling guards leading determined bowling balls like Joe Morris, Ottis Anderson, and Marion Barber. Ricky Williams understands how to make like an Ebonite or Brunswick and roll. This is a risky pick as long as Brown is healthy, but from what I've seen Williams remains the better all-around player.

Ryan Mathews: Mike Tolbert has looked good, but he's had far more opportunities than Ryan Mathews. At the same time, Mathews has looked better in flashes than Tolbert can ever be. Norv Turner knew this on draft day, saw it in practice, and stands by it in the regular season. As long as Mathews is healthy enough to go - and I think the Chargers were being extra cautious with him last week - he will reward patient owners. Despite missing a game and a half, he's still the 31st-ranked fantasy RB at this early stage, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. I know the sports media is pouncing like vultures on carrion about the idea that San Diego is wishing they didn't let go of Tomlinson, but let those birds eat rotten meat: Tomlinson didn't average 4.7 yards per carry in San Diego despite his 6 yards per carry behind a great Jets unit this year. Stay patient with Mathews if you can afford to.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to waldman@footballguys.com.