Overvalued QBsRead the introduction to this series if you haven't yet.
|Philip Rivers - SD ADP: 38 overall, QB 7||7 votes|
Will Grant - Missing his #1 WR for at least three games, and probably the first ten games means Rivers will get off to a very slow start. Add in a rookie RB and Rivers is poised for a dip in stats after putting up a career best 4254 yards passing last season. Rivers could even finish outside of the top ten fantasy QBs for the first time in three years.
Jeff Pasquino - Rivers is going to be missing his top wide receiver for at least three games due to a suspension and as many as 10 games due to a contract holdout. Rivers will have to make do with just TE Antonio Gates and his other wide receivers who must step up to fill the big void left by Jackson. Considering the additional want of head coach Norv Turner to get the ball in rookie running back Ryan Mathews' hands at least 290 times this season and it might be tough for Rivers to repeat his strong fantasy numbers from last year.
Aaron Rudnicki - This will likely be a popular pick given the recent news on Vincent Jackson. While Rivers is probably good enough to still live up to this draft position even without the services of Jackson for much of the year, he would need a lot of things to go well. Antonio Gates would likely be relied on as the primary option in the passing game, but Malcom Floyd would also have to take a big step in his development and emerge as a consistent big-play threat. RBs like Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews would need to make big contributions as receivers. The Chargers don't seem to have the same great depth that they've had in the past so any injuries to a key player could also be devastating. If Jackson ends his holdout and only misses a few games due to suspension, Rivers deserves to go this high. Given the risk, however, I would drop him down to the next tier and only consider taking him several rounds later.
Jeff Tefertiller - While Rivers is certainly a good young passer on the rise, the potential loss of Vincent Jackson for most of the season is immense. We know Jackson will be suspended for the first three games of the season. He is also threatening a lengthy holdout deep into the football year. There is talk of a possible trade, moving Jackson to another team, but that would do little to help Rivers' fantasy owners. He is just too risky with this pick. This ADP is the same as Rivers' 2009 finish. It is difficult to imagine him topping last year's numbers ... but easy to fathom a rough fantasy year.
Matt Waldman - Rivers is a fine NFL quarterback, but without a stud WR, his numbers are not fantasy top-12 worthy. Despite the play of Antonio Gates, this was the case before Vincent Jackson became a top-12 caliber receiver from 2008-2009. The Chargers front office is playing a serious brand of hardball with Jackson's contract situation. Even if Jackson doesn't sit out the year, he will serve a three-game suspension this year due to a DUI offense in 2009. Malcolm Floyd might be a bargain, but he won't be on Jackson's level of performance. Rivers poses too much risk to take so early.
Jason Wood - I rank Rivers QB8 so I don't want to convey that he's a high risk option at his current ADP. BUT, he's going on average at the 38th overall selection, nearly 2.5 rounds earlier than Brett Favre, the consensus QB8. To my mind, Rivers has become a tad too risky to draft in the 3rd or 4th round, with many viable 3,500-4,000-yard passers still on the board. If Vincent Jackson's situation doesn't turn around, Rivers is without a true WR1. I cannot overlook that in the 3rd round.
|Tom Brady - NE ADP: 26 overall, QB 4||6 votes|
Jene Bramel - This is nitpicking a bit, as I still like Brady as an upper-tier QB this year. But I think legitimate durability concerns and question marks with the health and experience of his receiving corps make him a big risk as the QB4 this year. I'd much rather risk Tony Romo in the third or fourth round (or draft a QBBC later) than hope Brady can put up the 30 touchdown passes he'll need to finish in the top five.
David Dodds - The Patriots offense looks to be a fraction of what they used to be. Randy Moss is still with the team, but he has stated this will be his last year. I get the vibe that he will be mailing it in this year. Wes Welker is trying to make it back from a bad injury, but many suspect he will start the season on the PUP. Edelman and Tate are nothing special, but likely will be used until Welker can get back. The team is wasting time messing with Torry Holt (You can stick a fork in him; He's done). Then at TE, the team dismantled their whole unit and will be relying on rookies at the position. And don't get me started on this team's backs. They were too old last year and the team brought back Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk for more of the same. With these limitations on offense, it's hard to get excited about Tom Brady's prospects this season despite his skillset. Add in two games a year against the Jets defense and this is a player way overvalued this season.
Jeff Haseley - Take a look at the Patriots schedule in weeks 13-17. They play NYJ, @CHI, GB, @BUF MIA. From a strength of schedule standpoint, it doesn't look all that horrendous, however if you look deeper, all five games could be played in bad weather conditions. Is that something you want out of your playoff starting QB? I don't. In a very deep, top heavy QB field, it may be wise to look at Tony Romo or Matt Schaub, each of whom are being selected after Brady in drafts this year.
Aaron Rudnicki - Brady appears to be getting drafted this high on simply reputation alone. Yes, he's one of the best QBs in league history, but he's only been a top-5 fantasy QB twice in 8 full seasons of play. The Patriots are also likely to start the season minus one of their best weapons in Wes Welker who suffered a devastating injury in the season finale last year. Even if he can play right away, he's unlikely to be the same dominant possession WR he has been in the past. Take away that reliable safety valve and there is going to be even more pressure on Randy Moss, who figures to see a double team on nearly every down. The Patriots added some nice weapons at tight end in the draft, but there have historically been very few TEs who made an instant impact as a rookie in the NFL. I think Brady should be drafted after Tony Romo for sure, and possibly a few other QBs as well. His current ADP of 26 overall is far too optimistic.
Jeff Tefertiller - How does a quarterback coming off a QB8 finish, and possibly without his favorite target for the first part of the season, now drafted as the fourth quarterback off the draft board? Yes, Brady still has Moss, but he could enter the season with Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman as the other two starting receivers. These lofty draft expectations for Brady make him ripe for disappointment. The chances of Brady exceeding this ADP are slim. He is being drafted off of the stellar 2007 season ... and that was a long time ago in the world of football.
|Kevin Kolb - PHI ADP: 72 overall, QB 10||4 votes|
Clayton Gray - Can we wait a bit before installing Kevin Kolb as a quality starting quarterback? Yeah, I realize Aaron Rodgers did it, but there is a much longer list of signal callers that struggled in their first year as a starter. It is astounding that people are drafting him before established players like Matt Ryan and Eli Manning. Of course, Eagles QB has a better track record than Falcons QB and Giants QB, but just plugging Kolb in for McNabb-type numbers seems incredibly risky. After all, we're talking about a guy with 885 career passing yards.
Matt Waldman - I like Kolb for dynasty leagues, but his two strong games against iffy defenses in garbage time last year aren't good arguments for his 2010 prospects. His receivers are young and talented, but they aren't great route technicians, which places more of the burden on Kolb to make great decisions and create under pressure. Donovan McNabb proved annually that he had these skills and did more with less than any QB of his stature in the past 10 years. I think the presumption that McNabb wasn't the straw that stirred the Eagles' drink can get fantasy owners in trouble.
Mark Wimer - Kolb will be working without one of the best pass-catching RBs of the last decade, Brian Westbrook. Westbrook routinely provided Donovan McNabb with 60-90 receptions and 4-5 receiving TDs per year - LeSean McCoy's career best so far is 40/308/0. After DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek, the Eagles' receivers are either still-developing youngsters like Jeremy Maclin and Cornelius Ingram, or journeyman-level players like Hank Baskett and Jason Avant. To expect a top-10 fantasy performance from a new starting quarterback with a scanty history at this level, such as Kolb sports and given his team's weapons - this seems wildly optimistic to me.
|Joe Flacco - BAL ADP: 77 overall, QB 13||3 votes|
Sigmund Bloom - A lot of people are looking for Flacco to take a big step forward this year with the addition of Anquan Boldin to the Ravens passing offense, but he seemed to be going backwards at the end of the season. Flacco fattened up on the soft underbelly of the league (KC, CHI, and CLE) but had only eight games above 200 passing yards and ten with zero or one passing TD last year. Matthew Stafford offers at least as much upside three rounds later, and Eli Manning and Matt Ryan offer the upside with a higher floor at almost the same pick as Flacco.
Jeff Pasquino - The Ravens have been a run first, run second, pass if they must on third type of team for several years, and that philosophy has served them well. A strong ground game along with good defense gives Baltimore plenty of chances to win and often gets them into the postseason, so why would they change that successful recipe? Flacco fans are expecting bigger things due to the addition of Anquan Boldin as a true WR1, but the more likely scenario has Flacco matching similar numbers from 2009. Expecting a Top 10 finish for Flacco this year is asking too much.
|Carson Palmer - CIN ADP: 111 overall, QB 15||3 votes|
Colin Dowling - I want to believe that Carson Palmer can regain the earlier form that made him a fantasy stud, but I'm afraid the train has left the station. Even if you think that Antonio Bryant offers a reliable second option for Palmer there are still a couple things working against him. First and foremost, the Bengals finally started winning again last year by relying on the running game. Secondly, Palmer's fantasy rank has been on the decline in recent years and despite being proclaimed healthy for 2009, he managed only 21 touchdown passes (and 5 of those came in one game). QB15 may not seem to be a high price until you consider that young upstarts like Matt Stafford and Chad Henne are available half a round later.
Andy Hicks - The Carson Palmer of last season did not look the same as the Carson Palmer of 2005 to 2007. As one of my fantasy squad last season I couldn't help but notice his struggles at completing any pass of distance and his general lack of confidence in the huddle. With the Bengals transitioning to a run/defensive orientation, I need to see Palmer air it out to regain my faith in his abilities.
|Drew Brees - NO ADP: 9 overall, QB 1||2 votes|
Mark Wimer - Drew Brees is a superlative NFL QB, making jaw-dropping throws on a regular basis. However, he shouldn't be the first fantasy QB overall, drafted in the first round. Brees doesn't rush often, and usually has zero or one rushing TD per year. Last year, he surprised with 22/33/2, but that was a bonus for his owners. Aaron Rodgers posts passing numbers to rival Brees, and he routinely rushes the ball over 50 times a year for between 200 and 300 yards (10x or more Brees' annual sum), with 4-5 rushing TDs. Rodgers' likely rushing stats boost him over Brees in fantasy terms.
|Jay Cutler - CHI ADP: 65 overall, QB 9||2 votes|
Andrew Garda - Cutler's value is hinging on the "Mike Martz QBs put up mad numbers" theorem but a few things point away from that. Since Martz did well with the Rams, he has failed to have QBs who produced in Detroit and San Francisco. Neither was a team close to the talent he had during the salad days with the Rams. Chicago is not different. No big time WRs, offensive line, or potent running game. Cutler is going as a top 10 QB in the sixth and seventh rounds. To me, the situation is too high risk for that value.
|Matt Leinart - ARI ADP: 158 overall, QB 23||2 votes|
Jason Wood - I'm just not buying what Leinart is selling. To my mind, the loss of Kurt Warner may be the single largest personnel lost of the offseason. I see a lot of ways Arizona can regress, and Leinart is atop the list. In a weird way, Derek Anderson helps Leinart because Anderson is a terrible QB in his own right. But I still think this will be a revolving door of ineptitude in 2010.
|Ben Roethlisberger - PIT ADP: 121 overall, QB 18||2 votes|
Mark Wimer - Repeat this mantra: Roethlisberger is suspended for four-to-six games. He'll miss a month or more of practices with his team, and his timing will suffer accordingly. The Steelers drafted to upgrade their offensive line, and look set to shade the offense back towards their power-running-game roots. Will Roethlisberger have some big statistical games once he returns? Perhaps, but he plays in a brutal, outdoor home venue during fantasy playoffs - weeks 14-16 at home in Heinz Field, after the heavy schedule of pro and college games hosted there has demolished the turf. No thanks, I'll pass.
|Matt Ryan - ATL ADP: 74 overall, QB 11||2 votes|
David Yudkin - Ryan has ranked 17th in fantasy PPG for QB over the past two seasons. He threw for more than 500 fewer yards than he did in 2008 but had more passing attempts in 2009. With Michael Turner healthy, the Falcons will again be a team that will grind it out on the ground and pass sparingly. Until Atlanta becomes a pass happy team, Ryan should again rank as a middle of the road fantasy QB2.
|Matt Cassel - KC ADP: 140 overall, QB 22||1 vote|
|Brett Favre - MIN ADP: 62 overall, QB 8||1 vote|
|Chad Henne - MIA ADP: 116 overall, QB 16||1 vote|
|Eli Manning - NYG ADP: 75 overall, QB 12||1 vote|
|Peyton Manning - IND ADP: 15 overall, QB 3||1 vote|
|Donovan McNabb - WAS ADP: 82 overall, QB 14||1 vote|
|Matthew Stafford - DET ADP: 117 overall, QB 17||1 vote|