Try as we might, it's impossible to spend high draft picks on every position. Obviously, running back, wide receiver, quarterback, and even tight end get most of the love in the majority of fantasy drafts. While some drafters do select a team defense fairly early, many prefer to wait and grab a couple with the expectation of creating a committee. Each week, the owner will pick the most appealing matchup and, in theory, make up the difference of not having an upper-tier defense. Oh it's a great plan (and it often works), but the road to get there is pretty long.
Before selecting a committee, the following must be considered:
Availability - If we're going to wait on defense, we aren't going to get one in the early stages (or even the middle stages) of our draft.
Quality - While we're willing to pass on the New York Jets of the world, we don't want the dregs of the NFL. After all, if they can't score fantasy points, it doesn't matter how easy their matchup is.
Compatibility - Our whole theory is based on having as many good matchups as possible throughout the season. If two defenses have eight easy opponents but play those eight opponents the same weeks, then those two defenses are not compatible. Oh, and they can't have the same bye week as we aren't too keen on soaking up three roster spots on defenses.
OK. Let's find some committees.
Availability
First, let's take a look at all 32 defenses along with their average draft position (ADP) and their expected fantasy points per game (FPs) using David Dodds' projections and a standard scoring system.
ADP |
Defense |
FPs |
98 |
NY Jets |
15.5 |
118 |
Minnesota |
11.1 |
122 |
Green Bay |
9.9 |
124 |
Philadelphia |
10.5 |
125 |
Baltimore |
13.3 |
129 |
Pittsburgh |
11.1 |
132 |
Dallas |
9.7 |
138 |
San Francisco |
9.8 |
175 |
New Orleans |
5.5 |
191 |
Chicago |
7.5 |
196 |
Cincinnati |
7.8 |
198 |
NY Giants |
8.6 |
208 |
San Diego |
8.5 |
212 |
Miami |
7.1 |
216 |
Indianapolis |
8.8 |
219 |
New England |
9.0 |
227 |
Houston |
6.0 |
235 |
Tennessee |
7.7 |
236 |
Denver |
6.4 |
259+ |
Arizona |
7.3 |
259+ |
Atlanta |
5.8 |
259+ |
Buffalo |
6.2 |
259+ |
Carolina |
8.1 |
259+ |
Cleveland |
3.6 |
259+ |
Detroit |
2.6 |
259+ |
Jacksonville |
3.4 |
259+ |
Kansas City |
0.3 |
259+ |
Oakland |
2.9 |
259+ |
Seattle |
4.3 |
259+ |
St. Louis |
0.1 |
259+ |
Tampa Bay |
5.8 |
259+ |
Washington |
7.6 |
The Jets, Ravens, Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Packers, 49ers, and Cowboys will generally be off the board before we want to start drafting pieces of our committee. These defenses are going before the end of the 12th round, and that's simply too early. Besides, if you get one of them, you're going to start them every week and have no need for a committee. They are excluded.
Quality
Now, let's examine the remaining defenses for quality.
ADP |
Defense |
FPs |
219 |
New England |
9.0 |
216 |
Indianapolis |
8.8 |
198 |
NY Giants |
8.6 |
208 |
San Diego |
8.5 |
259+ |
Carolina |
8.1 |
196 |
Cincinnati |
7.8 |
235 |
Tennessee |
7.7 |
259+ |
Washington |
7.6 |
191 |
Chicago |
7.5 |
259+ |
Arizona |
7.3 |
212 |
Miami |
7.1 |
236 |
Denver |
6.4 |
259+ |
Buffalo |
6.2 |
227 |
Houston |
6.0 |
259+ |
Atlanta |
5.8 |
259+ |
Tampa Bay |
5.8 |
175 |
New Orleans |
5.5 |
259+ |
Seattle |
4.3 |
259+ |
Cleveland |
3.6 |
259+ |
Jacksonville |
3.4 |
259+ |
Oakland |
2.9 |
259+ |
Detroit |
2.6 |
259+ |
Kansas City |
0.3 |
259+ |
St. Louis |
0.1 |
At the other end of the spectrum, we see the Seahawks, Browns, Jaguars, Raiders, Lions, Chiefs, and Rams. These defenses simply won't score enough points to be a viable member of a quality committee. They are also excluded.
Compatibility
So we have 17 defenses that are eligible for committee work. They are listed below along with their ADP and the expected fantasy points allowed per game by their opponents (Sked).
ADP |
Defense |
Sked |
259+ |
Arizona |
8.3 |
259+ |
Atlanta |
8.0 |
259+ |
Buffalo |
6.9 |
259+ |
Carolina |
8.0 |
191 |
Chicago |
6.8 |
196 |
Cincinnati |
7.5 |
236 |
Denver |
7.5 |
227 |
Houston |
6.3 |
216 |
Indianapolis |
6.1 |
212 |
Miami |
7.3 |
219 |
New England |
7.5 |
175 |
New Orleans |
8.3 |
198 |
NY Giants |
6.2 |
208 |
San Diego |
7.4 |
259+ |
Tampa Bay |
8.0 |
235 |
Tennessee |
5.7 |
259+ |
Washington |
6.4 |
To check for compatibility, we take these defenses and see how their schedules align. Omitting pairs of defenses with the same bye week gives us 121 possible committees. These pairs are listed below, with each team's ADP and the pair's combined Sked.
ADPs |
Committee |
Sked |
ADPs |
Committee |
Sked |
ADPs |
Committee |
Sked |
259+ / 175 |
Ari / NO |
10.1 |
259+ / 259+ |
Buf / TB |
9.1 |
196 / 259+ |
Cin / Was |
8.5 |
212 / 175 |
Mia / NO |
10.1 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Ari |
9.1 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Was |
8.5 |
259+ / 259+ |
Car / Atl |
9.9 |
208 / 236 |
SD / Den |
9.1 |
212 / 259+ |
Mia / TB |
8.5 |
259+ / 259+ |
Atl / TB |
9.9 |
259+ / 259+ |
Buf / Atl |
9.1 |
259+ / 259+ |
Was / Ari |
8.5 |
259+ / 175 |
Car / NO |
9.9 |
191 / 259+ |
Chi / TB |
9.1 |
259+ / 191 |
Was / Chi |
8.5 |
259+ / 259+ |
Ari / Atl |
9.8 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Buf |
9.0 |
259+ / 236 |
Car / Den |
8.5 |
259+ / 175 |
TB / NO |
9.8 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / TB |
9.0 |
198 / 212 |
NYG / Mia |
8.5 |
259+ / 175 |
Atl / NO |
9.7 |
259+ / 236 |
Ari / Den |
9.0 |
212 / 227 |
Mia / Hou |
8.4 |
219 / 175 |
NE / NO |
9.7 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Buf |
9.0 |
191 / 212 |
Chi / Mia |
8.4 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Car |
9.7 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Car |
9.0 |
227 / 259+ |
Hou / Atl |
8.4 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / TB |
9.6 |
259+ / 175 |
Was / NO |
9.0 |
208 / 235 |
SD / Ten |
8.4 |
212 / 259+ |
Mia / Atl |
9.6 |
219 / 236 |
NE / Den |
9.0 |
259+ / 227 |
Buf / Hou |
8.4 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / TB |
9.6 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / Ari |
9.0 |
196 / 227 |
Cin / Hou |
8.3 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Ari |
9.5 |
208 / 196 |
SD / Cin |
9.0 |
236 / 259+ |
Den / Buf |
8.3 |
219 / 208 |
NE / SD |
9.5 |
212 / 259+ |
Mia / Buf |
8.9 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Buf |
8.3 |
236 / 175 |
Den / NO |
9.5 |
191 / 236 |
Chi / Den |
8.9 |
208 / 227 |
SD / Hou |
8.3 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Car |
9.5 |
259+ / 212 |
Ari / Mia |
8.9 |
219 / 227 |
NE / Hou |
8.3 |
219 / 196 |
NE / Cin |
9.4 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / TB |
8.9 |
235 / 259+ |
Ten / TB |
8.3 |
196 / 212 |
Cin / Mia |
9.4 |
208 / 191 |
SD / Chi |
8.9 |
216 / 196 |
Ind / Cin |
8.2 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Atl |
9.4 |
259+ / 259+ |
Was / TB |
8.8 |
219 / 198 |
NE / NYG |
8.2 |
236 / 259+ |
Den / TB |
9.4 |
219 / 191 |
NE / Chi |
8.8 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / Buf |
8.2 |
196 / 259+ |
Cin / Atl |
9.4 |
227 / 259+ |
Hou / TB |
8.8 |
236 / 227 |
Den / Hou |
8.1 |
196 / 236 |
Cin / Den |
9.3 |
235 / 259+ |
Ten / Ari |
8.8 |
235 / 259+ |
Ten / Buf |
8.1 |
208 / 212 |
SD / Mia |
9.3 |
227 / 175 |
Hou / NO |
8.8 |
259+ / 227 |
Was / Hou |
8.1 |
196 / 259+ |
Cin / TB |
9.3 |
259+ / 227 |
Car / Hou |
8.8 |
216 / 208 |
Ind / SD |
8.1 |
191 / 175 |
Chi / NO |
9.3 |
235 / 175 |
Ten / NO |
8.8 |
219 / 235 |
NE / Ten |
8.1 |
259+ / 259+ |
Was / Atl |
9.3 |
191 / 259+ |
Chi / Buf |
8.8 |
259+ / 259+ |
Was / Buf |
8.0 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Ari |
9.3 |
198 / 175 |
NYG / NO |
8.7 |
216 / 191 |
Ind / Chi |
8.0 |
196 / 191 |
Cin / Chi |
9.3 |
259+ / 212 |
Was / Mia |
8.7 |
198 / 208 |
NYG / SD |
7.9 |
259+ / 191 |
Car / Chi |
9.3 |
198 / 236 |
NYG / Den |
8.7 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / Was |
7.9 |
191 / 259+ |
Chi / Ari |
9.3 |
198 / 196 |
NYG / Cin |
8.7 |
235 / 212 |
Ten / Mia |
7.8 |
196 / 175 |
Cin / NO |
9.2 |
235 / 259+ |
Ten / Atl |
8.7 |
219 / 216 |
NE / Ind |
7.8 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / Car |
9.2 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Atl |
8.6 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Was |
7.8 |
259+ / 227 |
Ari / Hou |
9.2 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Was |
8.6 |
191 / 227 |
Chi / Hou |
7.8 |
259+ / 259+ |
Car / TB |
9.2 |
216 / 236 |
Ind / Den |
8.6 |
235 / 191 |
Ten / Chi |
7.6 |
259+ / 175 |
Buf / NO |
9.2 |
196 / 235 |
Cin / Ten |
8.6 |
216 / 235 |
Ind / Ten |
7.5 |
259+ / 259+ |
Ari / TB |
9.2 |
216 / 175 |
Ind / NO |
8.6 |
198 / 235 |
NYG / Ten |
7.4 |
259+ / 212 |
Car / Mia |
9.2 |
259+ / 259+ |
Car / Was |
8.6 |
235 / 227 |
Ten / Hou |
7.4 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Atl |
9.2 |
259+ / 235 |
Car / Ten |
8.6 |
198 / 227 |
NYG / Hou |
7.4 |
212 / 236 |
Mia / Den |
9.2 |
216 / 212 |
Ind / Mia |
8.6 |
216 / 198 |
Ind / NYG |
7.4 |
236 / 259+ |
Den / Atl |
9.1 |
As you can see, Arizona and New Orleans combine to form the easiest schedule. The Dolphins and Saints are next, and so on, until we get down to the Colts and Giants forming the most difficult combined schedule. That's great information, but we aren't quite finished. After all, fantasy football is all about scoring points.
Factoring In Fantasy Points
The last piece of the committee puzzle is factoring in fantasy points. The table below shows the 121 committees reordered based on their expected number of FPs scored each week.
ADPs |
Committee |
FPs |
ADPs |
Committee |
FPs |
ADPs |
Committee |
FPs |
219 / 208 |
NE / SD |
11.1 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Buf |
9.5 |
259+ / 175 |
Car / NO |
8.5 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / Car |
10.8 |
216 / 236 |
Ind / Den |
9.5 |
212 / 259+ |
Mia / Buf |
8.4 |
219 / 196 |
NE / Cin |
10.7 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / Buf |
9.5 |
196 / 259+ |
Cin / Atl |
8.4 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Car |
10.7 |
208 / 236 |
SD / Den |
9.5 |
235 / 175 |
Ten / NO |
8.4 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Car |
10.5 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / Ari |
9.4 |
259+ / 227 |
Ari / Hou |
8.3 |
216 / 198 |
Ind / NYG |
10.5 |
196 / 259+ |
Cin / Was |
9.4 |
212 / 236 |
Mia / Den |
8.3 |
219 / 198 |
NE / NYG |
10.5 |
219 / 227 |
NE / Hou |
9.4 |
212 / 259+ |
Mia / Atl |
8.3 |
216 / 235 |
Ind / Ten |
10.5 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Buf |
9.4 |
259+ / 236 |
Car / Den |
8.3 |
216 / 208 |
Ind / SD |
10.3 |
219 / 236 |
NE / Den |
9.4 |
259+ / 259+ |
Was / TB |
8.3 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Car |
10.3 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Ari |
9.4 |
259+ / 259+ |
Was / Buf |
8.2 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Was |
10.3 |
259+ / 212 |
Was / Mia |
9.3 |
212 / 227 |
Mia / Hou |
8.2 |
216 / 196 |
Ind / Cin |
10.3 |
259+ / 259+ |
Car / Was |
9.3 |
191 / 175 |
Chi / NO |
8.2 |
219 / 191 |
NE / Chi |
10.3 |
219 / 175 |
NE / NO |
9.2 |
259+ / 259+ |
Car / TB |
8.1 |
216 / 191 |
Ind / Chi |
10.2 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Atl |
9.1 |
212 / 175 |
Mia / NO |
8.1 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Ari |
10.2 |
259+ / 212 |
Car / Mia |
9.1 |
191 / 259+ |
Chi / TB |
8.1 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / Was |
10.2 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / TB |
9.1 |
259+ / 212 |
Ari / Mia |
8.1 |
198 / 196 |
NYG / Cin |
10.2 |
216 / 175 |
Ind / NO |
9.1 |
259+ / 175 |
Was / NO |
8.1 |
219 / 235 |
NE / Ten |
10.2 |
235 / 191 |
Ten / Chi |
9.1 |
196 / 175 |
Cin / NO |
8.1 |
208 / 235 |
SD / Ten |
10.1 |
198 / 175 |
NYG / NO |
9.1 |
235 / 259+ |
Ten / TB |
8.0 |
198 / 235 |
NYG / Ten |
10.1 |
235 / 259+ |
Ten / Ari |
9.0 |
259+ / 259+ |
Ari / Atl |
8.0 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / Was |
10.1 |
198 / 259+ |
NYG / TB |
9.0 |
191 / 227 |
Chi / Hou |
8.0 |
216 / 212 |
Ind / Mia |
10.1 |
208 / 227 |
SD / Hou |
9.0 |
259+ / 236 |
Ari / Den |
7.8 |
219 / 216 |
NE / Ind |
10.1 |
235 / 259+ |
Ten / Buf |
9.0 |
259+ / 175 |
Ari / NO |
7.8 |
208 / 212 |
SD / Mia |
10.0 |
191 / 259+ |
Chi / Ari |
8.9 |
259+ / 227 |
Buf / Hou |
7.8 |
208 / 191 |
SD / Chi |
10.0 |
235 / 212 |
Ten / Mia |
8.9 |
236 / 259+ |
Den / TB |
7.4 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Was |
9.9 |
196 / 236 |
Cin / Den |
8.9 |
259+ / 259+ |
Ari / TB |
7.4 |
196 / 191 |
Cin / Chi |
9.9 |
191 / 259+ |
Chi / Buf |
8.8 |
259+ / 259+ |
Buf / TB |
7.4 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Ari |
9.9 |
208 / 259+ |
SD / Atl |
8.8 |
259+ / 259+ |
Buf / Atl |
7.3 |
196 / 235 |
Cin / Ten |
9.8 |
259+ / 227 |
Was / Hou |
8.8 |
227 / 259+ |
Hou / TB |
7.3 |
259+ / 191 |
Car / Chi |
9.8 |
198 / 227 |
NYG / Hou |
8.8 |
212 / 259+ |
Mia / TB |
7.3 |
259+ / 191 |
Was / Chi |
9.7 |
259+ / 259+ |
Car / Atl |
8.7 |
236 / 227 |
Den / Hou |
7.3 |
208 / 196 |
SD / Cin |
9.7 |
235 / 259+ |
Ten / Atl |
8.7 |
236 / 259+ |
Den / Atl |
7.2 |
198 / 208 |
NYG / SD |
9.7 |
259+ / 227 |
Car / Hou |
8.7 |
236 / 259+ |
Den / Buf |
7.2 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / TB |
9.7 |
191 / 212 |
Chi / Mia |
8.7 |
259+ / 259+ |
Atl / TB |
7.2 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Atl |
9.6 |
235 / 227 |
Ten / Hou |
8.7 |
259+ / 175 |
Buf / NO |
7.1 |
198 / 212 |
NYG / Mia |
9.6 |
191 / 236 |
Chi / Den |
8.6 |
236 / 175 |
Den / NO |
7.1 |
219 / 259+ |
NE / Buf |
9.6 |
259+ / 259+ |
Was / Ari |
8.6 |
227 / 175 |
Hou / NO |
6.9 |
216 / 259+ |
Ind / TB |
9.6 |
196 / 259+ |
Cin / TB |
8.6 |
227 / 259+ |
Hou / Atl |
6.8 |
259+ / 235 |
Car / Ten |
9.6 |
259+ / 259+ |
Was / Atl |
8.5 |
259+ / 175 |
Atl / NO |
6.8 |
198 / 236 |
NYG / Den |
9.6 |
196 / 227 |
Cin / Hou |
8.5 |
259+ / 175 |
TB / NO |
6.8 |
196 / 212 |
Cin / Mia |
9.6 |
As you can see, New England and San Diego combine to form the most prolific scoring duo. The Giants and Carolina are next, and so on, until we get down to Tampa Bay and New Orleans forming the lowest scoring committee.
Final Thoughts
Let's take a quick glance back at the first group of defenses that were excluded from the study.
ADP |
Defense |
FPs |
98 |
NY Jets |
15.5 |
125 |
Baltimore |
13.3 |
118 |
Minnesota |
11.1 |
129 |
Pittsburgh |
11.1 |
124 |
Philadelphia |
10.5 |
122 |
Green Bay |
9.9 |
138 |
San Francisco |
9.8 |
132 |
Dallas |
9.7 |
We have found 34 committees that can match or surpass Dallas' expected FPs. That is a very wide selection. If we are fortunate to grab the Patriots and Chargers, we'll be able to keep pace with (or outproduce) every elite defense other than the Jets and Ravens. That is excellent production from a pair of late-round selections and the very reason the committee approach is so inviting.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to gray@footballguys.com.