How To Attack Two Smaller Leagues
By Jeff Tefertiller
August 9th, 2010

Small leagues are a lot of fun. There is something about the eight or ten team leagues that make them a lot of fun. The size makes them much different than the standard twelve teamers. Just like with the larger leagues, it is a losing proposition to use standard draft strategies. An entirely different strategy is required to make the most of the draft. This article will specifically look at ten team leagues using non-PPR scoring. We will examine strategies especially designed for the smaller leagues in order to best attack the draft and get the most from the roster. At the bottom of the article, we will look at a few mock drafts utilizing different draft positions. These will help you form a new strategy for your small-sized league.

Down to basics, what are the differences I should know about the small leagues?

  • a. Since there is no scarcity issues, everything is about the studs. The whole draft is focused on how to draft enough elite players to win. It is only through the studs that an owner can gain an edge over his leaguemates. The top two or three players at each position outscore the rest by tremendous amounts.

  • b. Knowing how to best attack the quarterback position is one of the biggest keys to small leagues? Is it necessary to select a passer early in the draft like in the bigger leagues?

  • c. The running back position is one where the drop-off in expected production comes earlier in 2010 than in years gone by. How can I take advantage of this phenomena?

  • d. With only fifty wide receivers rostered, on average, how do we gain an edge?

  • e. Is there is a valid reason to take a kicker or team defense early?
  • How do I best address these questions above?

  • a. Since we need studs in order to gain advantages, how best do I go about drafting these players? The top players at every position give their owners a huge edge. The best way to get these studs is to be proactive in your draft. When the value stagnates at one position, look for studs at another. In the first table below, we can see how Larry Fitzgerald has a similar value to a group of backs. So, why not gain an edge at receiver and select a similar rusher next round? It pays to be proactive and look for talent plateaus and drop-offs. Look for studs. A top kicker or defense might be a great pick earlier than you would think, especially if they give you a two or three points per game edge each week.

  • b. In smaller (eight or ten teams) leagues which start only one passer, there is no reason to address the position before the fifth round unless you get a stud on the cheap. There will be great fantasy quarterbacks available. In smaller leagues, owners want to wait on quarterback (because there are so many good options) which makes the good passers drop further. So, wait on quarterback and try to find studs at other positions.

  • c. We will look a little later at how weighted the values are slanted toward the backs. The ball carriers have a huge VBD value edge over the other positions so it is best to lock up as many top rushers as possible. The expected fantasy production for the players at the position has definite tiers. But, even the lesser fantasy starters are worth more than most all quarterbacks and every tight end.

  • d. Unless going after a bona fide stud (Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, or Randy Moss), it is best to wait on the wide receiver position until ten or fifteen are off the board. There is very little difference in expected production so you might as well stock up on the position (running back) where you gain an advantage.

  • e. There are at least ten good kickers and team defenses so every team can have a good option. You should employ one of two strategies for the kicker position. Either take a stud earlier than you would think, or wait until ten are gone. The stud gives you an extra few points a game so it is a viable strategy. For the team defense position, it is best to play matchups with a smaller league. There will be plenty of good options available on the waiver wire each week from which to choose. Many times, it is better to have a mediocre defense with a great matchup than a good defense with a mediocre matchup.
  • When we look at the VBD (Value Based Drafting) application, we quickly realize how valued the running backs are when compared to the other positions. The VBD accounts for positional scarcity and available options at other positions using the Footballguys.com projections. It is amazing that only one quarterback and one wide receiver were valued in the first round. The first eight players are all running backs. The league variables used were ten teams, sixteen roster spots, non-PPR scoring, and starting requirements of 1 Quarterback, 2 Running Backs, 3 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker, and 1 Team Defense. There are still 17 ball carries who are "worthy" of at least a second round grade. This is very interesting considering that these backs represent more than half of the potential starters at the position. The depth at the quarterback and wide receiver positions means that a fantasy owner can afford to wait on those positions while stocking up on rushers.

    Rk
    Pos
    PosRk
    Player
    VBD
    ADP
    1
    RB
    1
    Chris Johnson
    142.0
    1.01
    2
    RB
    2
    Adrian Peterson
    129.0
    1.02
    3
    RB
    3
    Maurice Jones-Drew
    125.0
    1.03
    4
    RB
    4
    Ray Rice
    112.0
    1.04
    5
    RB
    5
    Frank Gore
    89.0
    1.05
    6
    RB
    6
    Steven Jackson
    88.0
    1.1
    7
    RB
    7
    Michael Turner
    81.0
    1.07
    8
    RB
    8
    Rashard Mendenhall
    71.0
    2.05
    9
    WR
    1
    Andre Johnson
    67.0
    1.06
    10
    QB
    1
    Aaron Rodgers
    61.0
    1.08
    11
    RB
    9
    Ryan Grant
    60.0
    3.02
    12
    RB
    10
    Ryan Mathews
    59.0
    3.03
    13
    WR
    2
    Larry Fitzgerald
    59.0
    2.04
    14
    RB
    11
    Knowshon Moreno
    59.0
    3.05
    15
    RB
    12
    Chris Wells
    56.0
    4.01
    16
    RB
    13
    DeAngelo Williams
    56.0
    2.02
    17
    WR
    3
    Randy Moss
    56.0
    2.01
    18
    RB
    14
    Pierre Thomas
    55.0
    4.07
    19
    RB
    15
    Jonathan Stewart
    54.0
    4.03
    20
    RB
    16
    Shonn Greene
    54.0
    2.09
    21
    RB
    17
    Jamaal Charles
    54.0
    3.08
    22
    QB
    2
    Drew Brees
    53.0
    1.09
    23
    WR
    4
    Miles Austin
    50.0
    2.1
    24
    QB
    3
    Peyton Manning
    49.0
    2.06
    25
    RB
    18
    Cedric Benson
    48.0
    3.06
    26
    RB
    19
    Joseph Addai
    46.0
    5.02
    27
    QB
    4
    Tony Romo
    45.0
    4.02
    28
    WR
    5
    Roddy White
    45.0
    2.08
    29
    RB
    20
    Jahvid Best
    42.0
    5.09
    30
    WR
    6
    Reggie Wayne
    41.0
    2.03
    31
    RB
    21
    LeSean McCoy
    38.0
    4.06
    32
    WR
    7
    Greg Jennings
    38.0
    3.1
    33
    WR
    8
    Marques Colston
    36.0
    3.09
    34
    RB
    22
    Felix Jones
    35.0
    5.08
    35
    WR
    9
    Calvin Johnson
    31.0
    2.07
    36
    WR
    10
    DeSean Jackson
    31.0
    3.04
    37
    RB
    23
    Ronnie Brown
    30.0
    5.06
    38
    QB
    5
    Matt Schaub
    30.0
    4.04
    39
    WR
    11
    Chad Ochocinco
    29.0
    5.05
    40
    QB
    6
    Tom Brady
    28.0
    3.07
    41
    RB
    24
    Brandon Jacobs
    25.0
    6.02
    42
    RB
    25
    Reggie Bush
    25.0
    7.07
    43
    RB
    26
    Ricky Williams
    24.0
    7.06
    44
    WR
    12
    Brandon Marshall
    24.0
    3.01
    45
    WR
    13
    Sidney Rice
    23.0
    4.05
    46
    TE
    1
    Antonio Gates
    23.0
    5.03
    47
    RB
    27
    Ahmad Bradshaw
    22.0
    9.03
    48
    WR
    14
    Steve Smith
    21.0
    5.01
    49
    RB
    28
    Fred Jackson
    19.0
    9.01
    50
    RB
    29
    Michael Bush
    19.0
    9.09

    The table above represents the Top 50 players in terms of VBD. There are a few things that jump out. As we discussed, the value of studs is immense. Notice the VBD values for the four top backs in comparison to the rest of the players, even very good players. Who would have thought that these backs would hold values equaling two others, who are still worth first round picks? Also, the wide receivers are just starting to gain ground on the running backs, and we will see this trend continue.

    Rk
    Pos
    PosRk
    Player
    VBD
    ADP
    51
    WR
    15
    Hakeem Nicks
    18.0
    6.05
    52
    RB
    30
    Justin Forsett
    17.0
    7.1
    53
    TE
    2
    Dallas Clark
    16.0
    4.09
    54
    RB
    31
    Cadillac Williams
    16.0
    9.02
    55
    RB
    32
    Clinton Portis
    14.0
    9.07
    56
    RB
    33
    Laurence Maroney
    13.0
    12.04
    57
    RB
    34
    C.J. Spiller
    11.0
    7.09
    58
    WR
    16
    Percy Harvin
    11.0
    6.07
    59
    WR
    17
    Hines Ward
    10.0
    7.01
    60
    RB
    35
    Jerome Harrison
    9.0
    8.03
    61
    DEF
    1
    New York Jets
    9.0
    10.06
    62
    WR
    18
    Dwayne Bowe
    9.0
    7.02
    63
    WR
    19
    Steve Smith
    8.0
    5.04
    64
    RB
    36
    Darren Sproles
    7.0
    11.01
    65
    WR
    20
    Anquan Boldin
    7.0
    4.1
    66
    TE
    3
    Jermichael Finley
    6.0
    6.08
    67
    TE
    4
    Vernon Davis
    4.0
    5.07
    68
    WR
    21
    Michael Crabtree
    3.0
    5.1
    69
    QB
    7
    Kevin Kolb
    3.0
    8.02
    70
    RB
    37
    Tim Hightower
    2.0
    11.05
    71
    WR
    22
    Jeremy Maclin
    2.0
    8.1
    72
    WR
    23
    Mike Wallace
    2.0
    8.09
    73
    WR
    24
    Mike Sims-Walker
    1.0
    6.03
    74
    RB
    38
    Marion Barber
    1.0
    7.03
    75
    PK
    1
    Mason Crosby
    1.0
    18.03
    76
    QB
    8
    Jay Cutler
    1.0
    7.04
    77
    PK
    2
    Nate Kaeding
    0.0
    15.04
    78
    WR
    25
    Santana Moss
    0.0
    9.04
    79
    QB
    9
    Philip Rivers
    0.0
    4.08
    80
    TE
    5
    Jason Witten
    0.0
    6.04

    When looking at the VBD spots from player 51 through 80, the wide receivers start catching up, the value at quarterback and tight end is still apparent. As discussed above, having studs is the only way to gain an advantage. This is why the kickers are actually a decent play when the value running back and wideout plateaus.

    We will run the mock drafts for the first five rounds from the 2, 5, and 9 holes just to give a better idea of the options available in order to best attack the draft. As we wrote in an earlier article this summer, the first five rounds are the "Money Rounds" and will make or break your draft. We will start with the 1.02 hole. Since we are looking for studs, this draft slot is ideal.

  • 1.02 - The two spot gives an owner a coveted elite running back right out of the gate. We will choose Adrian Peterson over Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice. It is a close call, but we will go with Peterson.

  • 2.09 - Our choices are between Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells, Shonn Greene, or Miles Austin. With no studs left, we will go with the running back position. But, which one? We will go with Greene with the way he ran at the end of the 2009 season. This is a risky pick, but we are trying to find studs and Greene could be great.

  • 3.02 - The drop-off at the running back position is coming so we need to take a ball carrier. Our options include Ryan Grant, Ryan Mathews, Knowshon Moreno, or Chris "Beanie" Wells. All of these four backs have plenty of upside but we will go with the solid Grant.

  • 4.09 - As we could have guessed above, the value of the remaining backs has taken a huge tumble when compared to the wideouts. The two good choices available are Joseph Addai and Chad Ochocinco. Why not select the star receiver and hope Addai makes it to our next pick?

  • 5.02 - There is not much left at the running back position, just Ahmad Bradshaw and his ilk. The receivers are led by Steve Smith (Car) and Hakeem Nicks. But, tight end Antonio Gates is intriguing here. He gives us a legitimate stud ... as is our goal.
  • Even though we might prefer to have another wideout by this point, it is nice to see potential studs at every spot. We would be happy with this start to a fantasy draft.

    So, how does the mock draft change when we move to the 1.05 position?

  • 1.05 - This is a tough pick between three stud running backs, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and Michael Turner. With the strong finish by Gore last season, we will go with the 49er ball carrier.

  • 2.06 - Our options are backs Ryan Grant, Ryan Mathews, Knowshon Moreno, Chris "Beanie" Wells. For this pick, we are better off going with the rusher we like best. Grant's consistent production is welcomed.

  • 3.05 - Picking in the middle of the round has given us tough decisions. This pick is more of the same. There are some great running back choices. Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles, Cedric Benson and Joseph Addai. Moreno, Wells, Charles, and Stewart are all bargains here. Take the one you like best. The talent drop-off is coming quickly after this group is off the board. We will go with the sheer upside of Charles ... but you could go with any of the group.

  • 4.06 - The VBD values are still slanted mightily toward the ball carriers. The top rusher left (Pierre Thomas) is worth almost twice what the next wide receiver (Chad Ochocinco), twice that of tight end Antonio Gates and a whopping 18 times the value of the next quarterback (Kevin Kolb). So, what tailbacks remain? Thomas, Joseph Addai, rookie Jahvid Best, and LeSean McCoy are all good options. With three Top 11 finishes in his four years as a professional, Addai is a great pick here. The decisions was between Addai and Gates with this pick.

  • 5.05 - Chad Ochocinco is a great value pick here. He stands out here compared to rushers Brandon Jacobs or Reggie Bush.
  • While this team is heavy on the running back position, we will be able to find good options at quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end later in the draft.

    How will things change as we move to a later first round draft slot?

  • 1.09 - Steven Jackson has a much higher VBD value than the other options. While he is not our favorite player, his value is too much to ignore.

  • 2.02 - We have a choice between a stud receiver in Larry Fitzgerald or another ball carrier (Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Grant, or Ryan Mathews). Since we are seeking studs, Fitzgerald is the pick.

  • 3.09 - The options are running back (Chris Wells or Jonathan Stewart) or an elite quarterback (Tony Romo). Since we need a RB2, we will select Wells here and hope that Romo is there after the corner.

  • 4.02 - Neither Tony Romo nor Jonathan Stewart were drafted. We will take the stud quarterback here hoping to gain an advantage over other teams. Stewart is a great option, though.

  • 5.09 - Rookie Jahvid Best has a HUGE VBD edge over the rest of the available alternatives. We will take a shot on Best's upside.
  • Getting a stud back in Peterson really makes a difference in how the teams look. All three teams have different strengths. These three mock drafts illustrate the advantage of having an early pick. The running back position was addressed early and often in all three mocks. But, the key for the later draft positions is to target an advantage at quarterback with the non-PPR scoring. Also, these mocks show the abundant depth of the wide receivers in the fourth, fifth, and sixth rounds. There are quality fantasy pass catching starters available in those rounds ... and even later.

    Please feel free to email me at tefertiller@footballguys.com with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter, so feel free to ask me questions there.

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