As fantasy owners prepare for drafts, many are over-thinking the numbers aspect of things. Yes, past statistical production is a predictor of future production. It is important to look at the player's history of fantasy finishes. However, there is one other aspect that is worthy of discussion. Fantasy football is not an exact science. The Footballguys.com projections are very good. The staffers do a great job on those projections. The results speak for themselves. But, there is one strategy that can help your odds of finding success. One thing that helps many fantasy footballers is to understand which situations are capable of producing fantasy success and which ones are not. There are some entire offenses who are not worth drafting at their current ADP (Average Draft Position). Am I suggesting to avoid all of the players from the team? No, just to avoid them unless the players on the team slide in fantasy drafts. The converse is true. There are some offenses you want as many players as possible. We will look below at some of the situations for fantasy owners to embrace and others to avoid at their current ADP.

Situations To Embrace

There some situations which provide strong fantasy options. It is these situations we want to embrace. Why not draft players who play in situations that offer the best chance of having a great season?

Green Bay Packers Passing Game - The Packers have built a system that is very quarterback-friendly. While there is no doubting the talent of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, the team has built an excellent cache of weapons in the passing game. Rodgers has four very good options at wide receiver and a budding star at tight end. The prolific Green Bay offense has produced at least 419 points each of the last three seasons, with a high of 461 points in 2009. So, what does that mean to me? Well, it means the Packer offense scored an average of 28.8 points per game while only having a middle of the road ground game (finishing 15th in rush attempts and 14th in rushing yards). Aaron Rodgers and company will continue to be productive through the air. Investing a pick on the Packer passing game is one that should pay dividends. The Green Bay quarterback has thrown for at least 28 touchdowns each of the last three seasons. With young wide receivers Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and tight end Jermichael Finley all entering their prime, this is an offense on the rise. Veteran Donald Driver still contributes, but the offense is in good hands with Rodgers and his young receivers.

Indianapolis Colts Passing Game - You could do a lot worse than relying on the consistent Peyton Manning, even if it is his pass catchers you covet for your fantasy team. Manning has been a Top 6 fantasy passer every season since 1999. In his 12 seasons under center for the Colts, Manning has averaged 4178 passing yards and 30.5 passing touchdowns a season. He has had an even better average the last few seasons. Even if you have no plans on selecting a fantasy quarterback early, the Colt passing game is still attractive. Indianapolis tight end Dallas Clark finished as TE2 with 100 receptions for more than 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns. Reggie Wayne ranked as WR8 with 100 receptions, 1,264 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie were the 38th and 31st best fantasy pass catchers last season. Both are young, developing players who should improve in 2010. Anthony Gonzalez is returning from a knee injury, giving the team one more option in the air attack. Manning does such a great job distributing the ball to the open receiver, making the Colt pass receivers great fantasy options.

Dallas Cowboys Running Game - The top three Dallas running backs totaled almost 2,000 rushing yards and another 472 yards through the air. This is great production and the situation offers value to the fantasy owner. Felix Jones (RB24), Marion Barber (RB26), and Tashard Choice (RB57) are all good values, at their respective ADPs, considering their upside. The Cowboys will run the ball even though many are excited about quarterback Tony Romo and the passing game. The Dallas offense will be productive, through the air and on the ground. If Jones and Barber do not get injured, there is a very real chance that each may approach 1,100 total yards. The strong passing attack led by Romo will help to set up the run, and scoring chances on the ground.

Cleveland Browns Running Game - The Browns have little to work with on the offensive side of the ball, but the bright spot should be the running game. First let's see why Cleveland will need to depend on the run. The starting quarterback should be Jake Delhomme. Yes, this is the same player who threw eight touchdowns as opposed to eighteen interceptions last year in Carolina, and that was in a much better offense. The Wide Receiver position only has second-year players Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie as threats. So, the team has a poor quarterback with little to work with in the passing game. Jerome Harrison led the Browns to four consecutive wins to finish the 2009 season. In the last three games, Harrison carried the ball a whopping 106 times for 561 yards, and five touchdowns. He added another 32 yards through the air during this span. While there is little chance the 5'10", 200-pound Harrison can carry that type of workload over an entire season, it illustrates the point that Cleveland knows it needs to run in order to win. Harrison is expected to begin the year in the starting lineup with Hardesty getting his chance by midseason if he can improve his pass protection.

Situations To Embrace

There are some situations which are best to Avoid. While a player could emerge to be fantasy viable, the odds are not great, especially compared to the price you pay. The following are situations to consider avoiding:

Buffalo Bills Passing Game - What a mess is left of the Buffalo quarterback situation. Gone are the days of Jim Kelly and Drew Bledsoe. Unless the team trades for a passer, they will enter training camp with one of the following options leading the huddle: Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. In 2009, the Bills finished as 28th in the NFL in points scored and 30th in total yards. This is with a decent running game led by Fred Jackson. To give an idea of the total abyss the Buffalo passing game has become, the pass offense averaged a mere 157 yards a game in 2009. That is horrible. Add in 17 passing touchdowns compared to 19 interceptions and it is easy to see why staying away from the Bills passing game might be a good idea. The nasty Buffalo weather during the second half of the season is icing on the cake. While new head coach Chan Gailey should help, there is not enough upside to be worth the risk. Lee Evans could be seen as a value play at his current ADP (WR37), but he is not an every-week starter with no other threat to keep defenses honest. It is best to just avoid the Buffalo Bills altogether this season.

Seattle Seahawks Passing Game - How bad has the Seattle offense been the past two seasons? Well, in addition to finishing 25th in points scored, the inept offense has led to an average of -104 point differential over the past two seasons. With the age and injury history of starting passer Matt Hasselbeck, the offense is in for a long year. Add in a less than stellar running game led by Julius Jones, Justin Forsett, and Leon Washington, and you get a recipe for disaster. To give another idea as to how bad the Seattle passing game was last season, the team led the league in passing attempts (with 609) but only finished 15th (with 3771) in passing yards. There is not much to the wide receiver weapons. Veteran T.J. Houshmandzadeh is the top receiver. He is well past his prime and not able to make a play after the catch. The Seahawks offense is one to avoid as a whole, especially quarterbacks and receivers given their current ADPs.

Chicago Bears Running Game - New Chicago offensive coordinator Mike Martz is installing his pass-happy offense. Matt Forte and Chester Taylor will do battle for carries. Forte has been the primary ball carrier since arriving from Tulane. Taylor was shown the money ($7 million this year) to come to the Windy City and play for the Bears. The two will likely split touches enough to make both overvalued in fantasy drafts. Forte (ADP of RB22) and Taylor (ADP of RB44) are not worth the gamble at those prices, especially in a pass-oriented offense. Making the Martz addition more harsh on the running game is the lack of involvement of the fullback in the offense. Why is this important? Forte averaged 1.8 yards per carry more last year running behind a fullback than as the lone back in the backfield. Martz does not like utilizing a fullback as the lead blocker. The Bears also added Harvey Unga in the Supplemental NFL Draft because they were not happy with the choices behind Forte and Taylor. It is smart to just avoid Forte and Taylor and let someone else deal with the headache of the Chicago running game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Game - The Tampa Bay offense is young in the passing game but is experienced and ineffective on the ground. Last season was abysmal. The Buccaneer only averaged 4.0 yards per carry as a team, good for 25th in the league. Only one team had fewer rushing scores than the Buccaneers. It is hard to imagine that Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward only crossed the goal line a total of five times on the ground. Neither Williams nor Ward broke the 4.0 yards per carry mark for the season or busted a carry longer than 35 yards. Kellen Winslow might be the only Buccaneer player worth drafting this season. Josh Freeman is improving. But, he will continue to make mistakes as he develops. Freeman will not be able to keep the focus off the running game, which is not strong to begin with.

Please feel free to email me at tefertiller@footballguys.com with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter, so feel free to ask me questions there.