The Tight End Position

Each year brings in a new group of rookie tight ends. This may be the position which takes the longest amount of time in order to transition from college to the NFL. There is so much to learn including blocking technique, reading defenses, picking up the blitz, and the new playbook. It takes time for these young tight ends to physically develop and learn the blocking technique. There is little chance a 220-pound youngster without optimal technique can hold his own in the trenches against the bigger defenders or picking up the blitz. Few tight ends are physically ready for the NFL. Most get by with tremendous speed and quickness in college. But, professional teams want the tight ends to be more than over-sized wideouts. Opposing defenses will take advantage of the situation if they know that the rookie struggles with blocking and will only go out in pass patterns. If the rookie tight end is just used as a receiver, then he will usually be the TE2 for the team ... meaning fewer snaps and less of a chance to produce fantasy numbers.

With the wide variance of different offenses employed by NFL teams, tight ends are used in different ways. So, when looking for a fantasy tight end, the situation is huge. Since we are looking at only fantasy production, it is best to isolate these optimal opportunities to put up fantasy points. This is the case with Dallas Clark in Indianapolis, Antonio Gates in San Diego, and Jason Witten in Dallas. All three get ample passes thrown their way to produce strong numbers most every year. But, when we look at Seattle's John Carlson last season, we see the other side of the coin. The Seahawks had injuries along the offensive line and asked their young tight end to stay in and block more often in order to protect the aging and injury-prone Matt Hasselbeck. This is understandable from the team standpoint but hard to take for fantasy owners.

In this series, we are looking at the historical success of the rookies compared to their corresponding fantasy ADP. The data from the last eight years is used to see how few players have big rookie seasons. These NFL newcomers are sorted by NFL Draft status. The final results are based on whether a player outproduced his ADP. That is what fantasy owners want to know at the time of their fantasy draft. This study only includes rookies who were selected in fantasy drafts. If a fantasy owner would not have considered the player at the time of his draft, there is no reason to include him in the study. In this article, we will examine the rookies at the Tight End position. At the bottom of this article, we will look at the prospects for the 2010 Draft class.

Below are the averages for the rookie tight ends. All of the players averaged about the same without regard to where they were selected in the NFL Draft. In fact, the Top 10 picks were the worst producers. The injury to Kellen Winslow hurt the owners who had selected him in early drafts. He and Vernon Davis were the highest drafted tight ends over the past eight seasons.

With the averages so low due to the slow development by the young tight ends, it is best to let someone else depend on the rookies. Below are the rookie tight ends who were drafted in redraft leagues. You will notice that many now-popular tight ends did not make the list. This is due to fantasy owners finally waking up to the fact that first-year players at the position rarely have big seasons. John Carlson is noticeably missing. In 2008, few expected him to catch many passes, much less finish as the seventh best tight end as a rookie.

So few rookie tight ends make an impact in the world of fantasy football. Only three players in the eight years of the study finished in the Top 10 of the study ... and two of those were way back in 2002. More recently, the good seasons by Zach Miller and Greg Olsen were not even a blip on the fantasy radar unless in the largest of fantasy leagues. Looking back on these rookies, not many have become elite ... no matter when they were selected in the NFL Draft or the quality of the rookie season. Of the top six fantasy tight ends drafted in redraft leagues this offseason, half were not on the fantasy radar as rookies. Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, and Brent Celek have all evolved into great fantasy options without much fanfare in the first couple seasons of their respective careers.

Below are the averages from above broken down by draft class.

So, should we expect anything from the 2010 rookie class of tight ends? Which of the group has the best chance to be a fantasy option? The four rookie tight ends drafted this summer are detailed below.

Jermaine Gresham

Jermaine Gresham sat out most of last season with a shoulder injury. Like Pettigrew last year, Gresham is a good blocker as well as receiver. Even though Gresham does not cost much as TE19 late in fantasy drafts, it is best to just let someone else select him. The Cincinnati Bengals do not utilize the tight end position much in the passing game so his upside is limited. Add in the injury history and it is easy to see why there might be better options for fantasy owners.

Jimmy Graham

Jimmy Graham has the potential to be a force at the tight end position. It is unlikely to be in 2010, though. Graham plays behind Jeremy Shockey and Dave Thomas in New Orleans and will be fighting just to get on the field. He has loads of upside after just coming to football after playing basketball his first few years in Miami. Graham is a great dynasty prospect but will need injuries to those ahead of him on the depth chart just to see the field. With his ADP of TE21, better fantasy backup tight ends will be available on the waiver wire during the season.

Tony Moeaki

Tony Moeaki has a shot to start this season for the Kansas City Chiefs. Moeaki is a great receiving threat and could provide a spark to the Chief offense. His injury history is concerning. Moeaki will have some good moments this year, but is not worth a roster spot unless in larger leagues. He has an ADP of TE24 and is available in the latter part of fantasy drafts.

Aaron Hernandez

Aaron Hernandez could surprise this season. He plays much like Dallas Clark. Hernandez is a threat with the ball in his hands. He will make plays. In the past, the Patriots have not taken full advantage of athletic tight ends so it will be interesting to see how Hernandez is used. He will not be asked to stay in block often. Expect to see glimpses of stardom. Hernandez was one of Tim Tebow's favorite targets at Florida. He adds another dimension to the New England passing game, but it remains to be seen how a non-blocking tight end will be used in an offense that heavily utilizes a slot receiver. He has an ADP of TE25 and is worth monitoring more than drafting at this point. Keep an eye on Hernandez this season. He could really turn out to be a fantasy factor in the coming years.

Just like in years gone by, none of this year's rookie class is a good bet to outplay their respective draft position in order to fantasy viable. There is one other point worth noting. All of these rookies are drafted before veteran Bo Scaife. While the Tennessee starter lacks the upside to be elite, he has been more than adequate as a fantasy backup the past couple of seasons. Also, Scaife produces better fantasy numbers with ex-college teammate Vince Young under center.

Please feel free to email me at tefertiller@footballguys.com with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter, so feel free to ask me questions there.