Value is a tough thing for most fantasy footballers to quantify. How do I compare two players at the same position in different parts of fantasy drafts? This article will serve to package the concept of value in a new way. The money line odds below are a function of the players' respective ADPs (Average Draft Position) compared to their expected finish for the 2010 season. So, which player has the better chance of finishing higher the end of the season? Does it change if the odds are weighted?
The money line represents a percent chance of winning. It is basically the odds to win expressed in terms of money. For the purpose of this article, "winning" is having the better fantasy season. With money odds, whenever there is a minus (-) you put up that amount to win a hundred dollars, where there is a plus (+) you get that amount for every hundred dollars wagered. Obviously there is no wagering involved in this article, but just another way to represent the differing values for players.
So, for the players below, we will be comparing the their values. The money line is an imaginary line based off the ADPs for both players. We are not advocating gambling, but if you were to wager an imaginary $100 on which player you think will have the better season - given the odds - which player would you "bet" on?
Tony Romo (+200) vs Aaron Rodgers - This is a tough one for many. Since the top-ranked fantasy quarterback has recently found it difficult to repeat the feat, Romo gets the nod. While both are great passers in prolific offenses, why not go with the underdog? The odds give Romo only a 33.3% chance of finishing higher at the end of the season. He has a better chance than that to eclipse the Packer passer. So much can happen. Those odds are a factor of the quarterbacks' respective ADP. Rodgers is selected as the second fantasy quarterback off the board late in the first round. That is a high pick to be used on a passer. Romo is drafted almost two rounds later, as QB5 with the 3.08 pick. Romo is a huge value play in redraft leagues this year. He has a very real chance of surpassing Rodgers, and finishing as the top-ranked fantasy quarterback, at a much better price.
David Garrard (+350) vs Matt Ryan - Yes, I know many are very down on the prospects of David Garrard. But, are you so down on him that you would give the heavy odds to Ryan? Before you answer, here is a statistic you might consider. In each of the last two years, Garrard has finished exactly five spots ahead of Ryan in the quarterback standings. This means that in 2008 when Garrard finished as QB11, the rookie was QB16. Last year, the Jacksonville starter was QB14 while Ryan ended the season as QB19. The odds represent a 22.2% chance that Garrard will have the better fantasy season. Will history repeat and the Jaguar quarterback outproduce his Falcon counterpart or will this be the year Ryan puts it all together? Surprisingly, Ryan is drafted as a fantasy starter with an ADP of QB10 in the latter part of the sixth round. That is a very high pick to be used on a player who has never sniffed the Top 15 at the position. Garrard is drafted as QB24 over 100 picks later than Ryan. Not much has changed with either situation to make give an indication that 2010 will be different than the two prior seasons.
Jamaal Charles (+125) vs Ryan Mathews - Charles ended the season with a very strong eight-game stretch for Kansas City. But, Thomas Jones was brought in to help shoulder the load. Could the youngster lose meaningful touches to the veteran? Mathews is the primary ball carrier in San Diego. Unless injury, there are no other backs on the roster who will get substantial carries. The odds have Charles' chances at 44.4% to finish higher than Mathews at season's end. Both backs have plenty of upside. Mathews is drafted as a fantasy RB1 as the RB12 off the board. Fantasy owners need to use the 2.11 pick in order to select the top rookie tailback. Charles is taken a few spots later as RB15 with the 3.04 pick. Mathews should get more carries, but Charles get the ever so slight nod in this one. He has shown ability and could take another step forward. With this a close call, the underdog is the pick.
Jahvid Best (even) vs Justin Forsett - Best has a higher ADP at the present time but Forsett's stock is rising higher and faster than most can conceive. He will likely be drafted before Best by the end of the preseason games. Forsett has drawn glowing reports from new coach Pete Carroll. He gave fans glimpses of greatness in 2009 and now looks to secure a larger role. The rookie has a shot to be the leading rusher in Detroit, as well as a threat out of the backfield. This one might be too close to call with both backs mired in committees. When in doubt, go with the more talented player. For this reason, Best is the pick by the slightest of margins.
Fred Jackson (+150) vs Matt Forte - Forte disappointed last season after a very strong rookie campaign. The news that he played the entire 2009 season with a knee injury explains the poor performance. The Bears have since brought in Mike Martz to run the offense. The squad also signed Chester Taylor to compete with Forte. Jackson also saw his team bring in a quality back as the Bills drafted C.J. Spiller in the first round of April's NFL Draft. Fantasy owners question how each of these two backs will be used. The odds show Jackson having only a 40% chance of outperforming Forte. For those who are stout believers on either side, these are great odds. Forte is currently drafted as a low-end fantasy RB2. His ADP is RB23 with the 5.03 pick. This might be too risky for a back in Forte's situation. Jackson is drafted much later as the RB34 and the 7.12 overall. He is a great value at this pick. With the unknowns in Chicago while playing in the Martz offense and Taylor's role, Forte is too risky. Jackson is the better play given the odds.
Jeremy Maclin (+400) vs DeSean Jackson - The Philadelphia Eagles have two of the most promising young receivers in the league. DeSean Jackson is coming off a monster year and looks to duplicate those numbers in 2010. Maclin came on strong to finish the season and looked to be carving out a substantial role for himself as the year came to a close. These odds represent Jackson having an 80% chance of besting Maclin. Those are long odds for the second-year pass catcher. Their respective ADPs reflect a similar edge for Jackson. He has an ADP of WR9 while chosen with the last pick in the second round. That is a quality pick and should be used wisely. Can Jackson repeat the great 2009 season? Maclin is drafted quite a bit later as the WR27 with 7.08 pick overall. Considering the large odds, why not go with the underdog? He was playing great to end his rookie season. The corner might have already been turned.
Chad Ochocinco (+350) vs Larry Fitzgerald - A battle of two elite NFL pass catchers. Fitzgerald has seen his situation change quite a bit this offseason. Kurt Warner retired and Matt Leinart is now the expectant starter. This quarterback change cannot be a good thing for the stud receiver. Anquan Boldin was traded to Baltimore, leaving only Steve Breaston and Early Doucet as receiving options for Arizona. Ochocinco is a wily veteran who has performed at a high level for many years. The odds give him only a 22.2% chance to top Fitzgerald. The changes for the Cardinals have allowed Fitzgerald to slip much further than expected in fantasy drafts. It has been a while since fantasy owners were able to select him this low. The respective draft positions for the two NFL greats are unexpectedly quite far apart. Fitzgerald is drafted at pick 2.01 as the third fantasy receiver off the draft board. Ochocinco is a great value in the latter half of the fourth round as he is the 16th drafted.
Hakeem Nicks (+150) vs Steve Smith NYG - The Giants, along with the Eagles discussed above, have two of the better young receiver tandems in the NFL. Steve Smith had his breakout season in 2009 and was Eli Manning's favorite target. Nicks emerged as the season progressed and is looking to take a huge step in his development (and production) in year two. Smith has a 60% to finish ahead of Nicks in 2010. Will Nicks finally put it all together and live up his potential? Consistency is the issue. Smith is drafted as the 15th receiver off the board with the 4.08 pick. His teammate has an ADP of WR20 and is selected as the 5.09 pick. This one is too close to call. Can Smith repeat? Will the light go on for Nicks allowing him to hit his upside?
Malcom Floyd (+200) vs Vincent Jackson - So much is up in the air regarding Vincent Jackson. He is slated to miss the first three games of the season due to suspension. Jackson is also threatening to hold out for much of the year. Talk about risky fantasy picks. Floyd stands to benefit if Jackson holds out or is traded, as rumored. He is rising quickly up the ADP rankings. Floyd has an ADP of WR40 in the ninth round while Jackson continues his slide down the ADP lists. He currently is drafted as WR17 with the last pick in the fourth round. If nothing has changed in this situation over the next month, expect Floyd to start gaining ground on his teammate in ADP. The current odds only give Floyd a 40% chance at producing better fantasy numbers. Since he gets a three-game head start, at the minimum, taking Floyd is the better option. The best case scenario for Jackson owners is that he comes back to the Chargers in week four with his tail between his legs. But, that outcome is unlikely. This could get ugly very quickly.
Kellen Winslow (+200) vs Jermichael Finley - Few players have shot up draft rankings this offseason like Jermichael Finley. He showed glimpses of greatness last year and could be the next young star at the Tight End position. Winslow is the only veteran presence in the Buccaneer passing game. Quarterback Josh Freeman must look for his tight end in clutch situations with the increased likelihood of two rookies starting at the Wide Receiver position. Winslow only has a 33.3% shot at out-producing his younger counterpart. Finley is a popular tight end sleeper, drafted as TE5 at the 5.10 pick. Can you depend on him with a fifth round pick? Winslow is underrated,sporting an ADP of TE9 with the 9.03 pick. Will his knees hold up? Questions abound for both players, with Finley getting the slight edge.
What players do you want to see matched up in coming installments? Please feel free to email me at tefertiller@footballguys.com with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter, so feel free to ask me questions there.