Many rookies made a big impact last season, primarily at the Wide Receiver position. Expectations are sky high for these youngsters entering year two of their young careers. With so many of these players ranked high, and drafted as fantasy starters, it led me to wonder what the history of success has been on these young wideouts. It started with looking for the answers to a few questions. How do rookies who finish in top 50 in their first year respond in year two? The hopes were high for these young pass catchers to take another step in their development. I wanted to know primarily about the receivers who had a good rookie season because those are the ones who usually have the high expectations in redraft leagues for their second year as a pro. I also wanted to know if it mattered when the player was drafted into the NFL? Do the higher draft picks develop quicker than those taken later? Is there any predictability to be found if looking at the pick used in the NFL Draft? We will look to answer these questions and a few others.

With these questions banging around my brain, I was thinking how best to research this and consolidate the data into something usable that might affect the 2009 draft class. First of all, we started by only including wide receivers who finished in the Top 50 at the Wide Receiver position. These are the players who are the most fantasy relevant and have the higher expectations entering their second season.

Below are all of the wide receivers who finished in the Top 50 as a rookie from the draft classes 2000 through 2008. The number represents the player's final ranking at their position. The next column is the year two finish, and the difference (rise or fall in year two) the third. The NFL Draft selection is included as well.

There was a string of poor seasons for the second-year wideouts. The five-year stretch from 2000 through 2004 were brutal for the wide receivers in their second seasons. These years made a huge impact on the total numbers. As a group of 23 players, there is a net -180 difference. This runs counter to what most think is actual. To better put these numbers into perspective, think about this: on average a wide receiver will finish almost eight spots lower in the year two rankings when compared to his rookie season. My, oh my, that sounds like bad news for all of the youngsters entering their second season in 2010. Making matters worse, not many of these poor second seasons were due to injury. There is a bright spot, though. In the last four rookie classes (ten wide receivers total), the net effect has been a net of +53. This is even with the horrible season by Eddie Royal last year, finishing as WR100. Over the past four seasons, a rookie improved, on average, approximately five places from year one to year two. This is more like it. These are numbers to make us optimistic about the 2008 draft class of receivers.

It is also interesting that the draft position did not effect the results. The two largest declines were by receivers talent fairly high in the NFL Draft. Michael Clayton (pick 15 overall) and Eddie Royal (pick 42 overall). Both finished a whopping 80 spots lower in their second NFL season. Royal will be entering his third year in 2010 so we do not know if this is a trend or aberration. He is the only receiver since 2005 who finished in the Top 50 as a rookie but fell out of that group his sophomore year. Since finishing WR13 as a rookie, Clayton has yet to finish higher than the 73rd best wide receiver. We can now see that his second season was the beginning of a BAD trend. It begs the question of how/why Clayton can go from such a monster rookie season to nothing since. Brian Griese force-fed the ball to his rookie receiver that year. But, it is intriguing what happened to make Clayton so ineffective since his first season as a pro. Whatever the reason, fantasy owners (and Tampa Bay fans) have gone from hopeful about the former LSU Tiger to thinking a change is probably best for both Clayton and the team.

There are several interesting points in the table above. Prior to 2005, no draft class (with a rookie finishing in the Top 50) had more than one receiver improve from year one to year two. There are several very good wideouts in that group. Boldin's WR4 finish is the highest finish by a rookie. He had an incredible rookie campaign. That was his highest finish so far in his career, with only two other Top 10 rankings. Also, it is easy to see the effect David Carr had on Andre Johnson. His talent finally overcame the situation.

Every receiver who had a great second season, finishing in the Top 10, has become a top wide receiver. That is some elite company. Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Calvin Johnson, and DeSean Jackson are all top players at the position. But, let's look at it a different way. These four pass catchers were decent fantasy starters as rookies and went on to become elite in year two. Given time, cream rises to the top.

Over the past four seasons, fantasy owners have benefited from selecting second-year wideouts. But, for the previous five seasons, it is shocking how poor those receivers performed in their second years. Throughout a five-year span, thirteen wideouts finished in the Top 50 at the position as a rookie. But, they dropped a collective -233 in year two. For those wanting the exact math: 13 players with a total decline of -233 in year two, yielded an average of 17.9 places per player. That is one serious bad streak by a group of players. It is nice that the 2005 draft class snapped this streak.

So, did the wide receivers who finished outside of the Top 50 as a rookie fare better or worse than their counterparts with strong rookie campaigns? Yes, there are several very good wide receivers who had poor rookie seasons for whatever the reason. Some were nicked up while others needed the extra time in order to transition to the NFL. One thing that is interesting is that there are very, very few wide receivers who turn out to be good fantasy options that do not finish in the Top 50 either of the first two seasons in the NFL. Below is a chart of the wide receivers who failed to finish in the Top 50 as a rookie but did so in their second seasons.

Just like with the four elite receivers above who had great second seasons to solidify their spot at the top of the position, Brandon Marshall and Greg Jennings had big second years in the league. Reggie Wayne is the only one on the list who went on to become a great receiver after two poor seasons to open his career. He was WR86 as a rookie and WR50 in his second season. Both graphs do not indicate much impact of draft status.

Now, what are the odds the wide receivers of 2009 draft class make an even larger impact in 2010? Should we be worried about them as a whole, or any of the group in particular? Below are the rookie wideouts from the 2008, along with their rookie finish, NFL Draft pick, and current ADP.

Wallace, Nicks, and Maclin are expected to have larger roles in 2010 than as a rookie. Wallace will be starting in place of the departed Santonio Holmes, who was traded to the New York Jets. Wallace is being drafted near his rookie finish even though his role will be expanded. Nicks is the one of the group who has a shot at the Top 12. He made some huge plays as a rookie and will look for more consistency in 2010. Nicks is a play-maker who will be a force this season. He scored a touchdown in four consecutive games as a rookie. Maclin was playing very well at the end of last year. He has a chance to be a Top 20 fantasy wide receiver this year. He is a player on the rise.

Harvin will see a similar role as his rookie season. Expect similar results as long as he can shake the injury bug and the migraines. Collie and Britt are the best candidates for a slide. While Collie is talented and plays in the great Colt offense, the emergence of Pierre Garcon last year and the return of Anthony Gonzalez could impede his progress. Britt will be limited by the quarterback play of Vince Young. While Britt is still VERY young and will improve, his situation will halt any potential for a big year. Michael Crabtree is not included in this list since his holdout as a rookie impeded any chance of a Top 50 finish. He and Nicks have the best chance at being an every-week fantasy starter, with Harvin and Wallace next most likely. The last four years should give fantasy owners optimism that these second-year wide receivers can improve off their solid rookie seasons.

Please feel free to email me at tefertiller@footballguys.com with any questions or comments. Also, I am on Twitter, so feel free to ask me questions there.