Zach Miller continues to put up great numbers despite playing for a terrible passing team. In 2009, Miller actually ranked 3rd among all tight ends in receiving yards as a percentage of team receiving yards:
Tight End |
Team |
Yards |
Perc |
Vernon Davis |
SFO |
965 |
29.3% |
Kellen Winslow Jr. |
TAM |
884 |
28.2% |
Zach Miller |
OAK |
805 |
28.0% |
Antonio Gates |
SDG |
1157 |
25.7% |
Dallas Clark |
IND |
1106 |
24.0% |
Tony Gonzalez |
ATL |
867 |
23.5% |
Jason Witten |
DAL |
1030 |
23.0% |
Brent Celek |
PHI |
971 |
22.2% |
Dustin Keller |
NYJ |
522 |
20.1% |
Heath Miller |
PIT |
789 |
17.5% |
Greg Olsen |
CHI |
612 |
16.6% |
Todd Heap |
BAL |
593 |
16.3% |
John Carlson |
SEA |
574 |
15.2% |
Jermichael Finley |
GNB |
676 |
15.0% |
Marcedes Lewis |
JAX |
518 |
14.4% |
Bo Scaife |
TEN |
440 |
14.2% |
Fred Davis |
WAS |
509 |
13.4% |
Kevin Boss |
NYG |
567 |
13.4% |
Visanthe Shiancoe |
MIN |
566 |
12.9% |
Jeremy Shockey |
NOR |
569 |
12.7% |
Randy McMichael |
STL |
332 |
11.2% |
Tony Scheffler |
DEN |
416 |
10.9% |
Owen Daniels |
HOU |
519 |
10.8% |
Dante Rosario |
CAR |
313 |
10.2% |
Brandon Pettigrew |
DET |
352 |
10.1% |
Anthony Fasano |
MIA |
339 |
10.0% |
Ben Watson |
NWE |
404 |
8.9% |
Evan Moore |
CLE |
158 |
7.0% |
Shawn Nelson |
BUF |
157 |
5.6% |
Leonard Pope |
KAN |
174 |
5.5% |
Daniel Coats |
CIN |
150 |
4.8% |
Ben Patrick |
ARI |
146 |
3.5% |
In each of the last two seasons, Miller has ranked among the top 15 tight ends despite the Raiders ranking among the bottom five in passing yards. But now JaMarcus Russell is gone and Jason Campbell is in. I looked to see when else that's happened before -- a TE ranked among the top 15 fantasy tight ends while playing for a bad passing team, the TE remained the starter for that team, but the team switched quarterbacks. The list, below:
Tight End |
Year |
Team |
Quarterback |
Rec-Yd-TD |
Rk |
TmPassRk |
Quarterback N+1 |
N+1 Rec-Yd-TD |
Zach Miler |
2009 |
OAK |
JaMarcus Russell |
66-805-3 |
11 |
29 (4th to last) |
Jason Campbell |
-------- |
John Carlson |
2008 |
SEA |
Seneca Wallace |
55-627-5 |
8 |
29 (4th to last) |
Matt Hasselbeck |
51-574-7 |
Bo Scaife |
2008 |
TEN |
Kerry Collins |
58-561-2 |
13 |
28 (5th to last) |
Vince Young |
45-440-1 |
Vernon Davis |
2007 |
SFO |
Alex Smith |
52-509-4 |
12 |
32 (last) |
Shaun Hill |
31-358-2 |
Alge Crumpler |
2006 |
ATL |
Michael Vick |
56-780-8 |
3 |
32 (last) |
Joey Harrington |
42-444-5 |
Alge Crumpler |
2003 |
ATL |
Doug Johnson |
44-552-3 |
7 |
31 (2nd to last) |
Michael Vick |
48-774-6 |
Desmond Clark |
2003 |
CHI |
Kordell Stewart |
44-433-2 |
14 |
29 (4th to last) |
Chad Hutchinson |
24-282-1 |
Kyle Brady |
2002 |
JAX |
Mark Brunell |
43-461-4 |
10 |
30 (3rd to last) |
Byron Leftwich |
29-281-1 |
Anthony Becht |
2001 |
NYJ |
Vinny Testaverde |
36-321-5 |
14 |
29 (3rd to last) |
Chad Pennington |
28-243-5 |
Wesley Walls |
2001 |
CAR |
Chris Weinke |
43-452-5 |
11 |
27 (5th to last) |
Rodney Peete |
19-241-4 |
Jackie Harris |
2000 |
DAL |
Troy Aikman |
39-306-5 |
11 |
27 (5th to last) |
Quincy Carter |
15-141-2 |
Dave Moore |
1999 |
TAM |
Trent Dilfer |
23-276-5 |
14 |
30 (2nd to last) |
Shaun King |
29-288-3 |
Freddie Jones |
1998 |
SDG |
Craig Whelihan |
57-602-3 |
5 |
26 (5th to last) |
Jim Harbaugh |
56-670-2 |
Tony McGee |
1993 |
CIN |
David Klingler |
44-525-0 |
13 |
26 (3rd to last) |
Jeff Blake |
40-492-1 |
Howard Cross |
1992 |
NYG |
Jeff Hostetler |
27-357-2 |
15 |
25 (4th to last) |
Phil Simms |
21-272-5 |
Ethan Horton |
1992 |
RAI |
Jay Schroeder |
33-409-2 |
10 |
24 (5th to last) |
Jeff Hostetler |
43-467-1 |
Eric Green |
1990 |
PIT |
Bubby Brister |
34-387-7 |
7 |
24 (5th to last) |
Neil O'Donnell |
41-582-6 |
James Thornton |
1989 |
CHI |
Mike Tomczak |
24-392-3 |
10 |
24 (5th to last) |
Jim Harbaugh |
19-254-1 |
Average |
42-468-3.8 |
34-400-3.1 |
Surprisingly, there wasn't much improvement by the tight ends above. Maybe it was because the team wasn't a good passing team for more reasons than the quarterback; therefore, a switch didn't solve the problem. Maybe it was normal regression to the mean by top tight ends. Or, perhaps, the results don't mean much due to a small sample size.
Or, perhaps, having a bad quarterback isn't so bad for a tight end. Bad quarterbacks don't progress through their reads or have pin-point accuracy; the big tight end over the middle is a dependable target. Weaker quarterbacks and passing games may revolve around the tight end more than some high-octane offenses. For Oakland, it's hard not to view Jason Campbell as a big upgrade for the passing attack. Miller ranked as the 11th best tight end last season in a 0.5 PPR league, and he's got an ADP of TE10 in non-PPR leagues and TE12 in PPR leagues. It seems like most fantasy players aren't ready to bump up Miller just yet. I would have thought they were crazy before I looked into this, but maybe they know something I don't.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.