Last year, Houshmandzadeh was the leading wide receiver on the most frequent passing team in the NFL. That's right: the 2009 Seahawks led the NFL with 609 pass attempts, but Seattle didn't convert many of those passes into big gains. In fact, Seattle ranked only 15th in passing yards; that's the worst passing yardage ranking by any team to lead the league in pass attempts in NFL history:
Year |
Team |
Rank |
Year |
Team |
Rank |
2009 |
SEA |
15 |
1989 |
NWE |
6 |
2008 |
NOR |
1 |
1988 |
MIA |
1 |
2007 |
NOR |
3 |
1987 |
MIA |
1 |
2006 |
GNB |
9 |
1986 |
MIA |
1 |
2005 |
ARI |
1 |
1985 |
SDG |
1 |
2004 |
GNB |
5 |
1984 |
SDG |
2 |
2003 |
NYG |
9 |
1983 |
KAN |
3 |
2002 |
STL |
2 |
1982 |
SFO |
2 |
2001 |
DET |
3 |
1981 |
MIN |
2 |
2000 |
NYJ |
6 |
1980 |
SFO |
6 |
1999 |
CHI |
3 |
1979 |
SFO |
6 |
1998 |
IND |
9 |
1978 |
MIN |
2 |
1997 |
SEA |
1 |
1977 |
BUF |
1 |
1996 |
NYJ |
7 |
1976 |
SEA |
7 |
1995 |
NWE |
14 |
1975 |
PHI |
10 |
1994 |
NWE |
1 |
1974 |
PHI |
8 |
1993 |
HOU |
3 |
1973 |
PHI |
1 |
1992 |
HOU |
1 |
1972 |
NOR |
4 |
1991 |
HOU |
1 |
1971 |
NYG |
2 |
1990 |
HOU |
1 |
1970 |
HOU |
7 |
While Houshmandzadeh wasn't catching passes from the league's top quarterbacks, he certainly had more than enough chances to turn in a big fantasy season. It's a bit surprising that on a team with 609 pass attempts, Houshmandzadeh couldn't even crack the 1,000 yard mark. It's not like he was competing with elite talents in the passing game:
Player |
Rec |
Yards |
TDs |
% Of Tm FP |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh |
79 |
911 |
3 |
21.8% |
Nate Burleson |
63 |
812 |
3 |
19.1% |
John Carlson |
51 |
574 |
7 |
18.3% |
Deion Branch |
45 |
437 |
2 |
11.4% |
Justin Forsett |
41 |
350 |
1 |
9.0% |
Julius Jones |
35 |
232 |
2 |
7.7% |
Justin Griffith |
19 |
118 |
1 |
4.0% |
Deon Butler |
15 |
175 |
0 |
3.7% |
Others |
24 |
162 |
1 |
5.0% |
Total |
372 |
3771 |
20 |
100.0% |
In the off-season, Seattle drafted WR Golden Tate and TE Anthony McCoy, and added former Jets RB Leon Washington and TE Chris Baker. Houshmandzadeh's ADP is currently WR32; last year, he was the 33rd best WR in FP/G. I don't expect Seattle to pass as frequently in 2009, and I don't expect Houshmandzadeh to drastically increase the percentage of the receiving pie that he takes. Sure, Matt Hasselbeck might be a bit more efficient in 2009, but I just don't see much upside for Houshmandzadeh. Best case scenario is he does slightly better than he does last year. But there are 40 or so wide receivers with better upside than T.J. Houshmandzadeh this year. I won't be drafting him in non-PPR leagues unless his ADP drops significantly. In PPR leagues, he has some value as a relatively safe WR3, but he won't be the sort of pick that will help you win your championship. Houshmandzadeh will be 33 in September, and I think it's safe to say his best days are far behind him.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.