Everyone knows that rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle; so how much do they improve by year two? I looked at all first round quarterbacks since 1978 who threw at least 200 passes in both their first and second seasons. Twenty-five such quarterbacks to meet those criteria; their statistics in those two years, below:
Quarterback |
Rookie Year |
Second Year |
|||||||
Year |
Att |
Yards |
TDs |
ICP |
Att |
Yards |
TDs |
ICP |
|
Matt Ryan |
2008 |
434 |
3440 |
16 |
11 |
451 |
2916 |
22 |
14 |
Joe Flacco |
2008 |
428 |
2971 |
14 |
12 |
499 |
3613 |
21 |
12 |
Vince Young |
2006 |
357 |
2199 |
12 |
13 |
382 |
2546 |
9 |
17 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
2004 |
295 |
2621 |
17 |
11 |
268 |
2385 |
17 |
9 |
Byron Leftwich |
2003 |
418 |
2819 |
14 |
16 |
441 |
2941 |
15 |
10 |
Kyle Boller |
2003 |
224 |
1260 |
7 |
9 |
464 |
2559 |
13 |
11 |
Joey Harrington |
2002 |
429 |
2294 |
12 |
16 |
554 |
2880 |
17 |
22 |
David Carr |
2002 |
444 |
2592 |
9 |
15 |
295 |
2013 |
9 |
13 |
Patrick Ramsey |
2002 |
227 |
1539 |
9 |
8 |
337 |
2166 |
14 |
9 |
Cade McNown |
1999 |
235 |
1465 |
8 |
10 |
280 |
1646 |
8 |
9 |
Donovan McNabb |
1999 |
216 |
948 |
8 |
7 |
569 |
3365 |
21 |
13 |
Tim Couch |
1999 |
399 |
2447 |
15 |
13 |
215 |
1483 |
7 |
9 |
Peyton Manning |
1998 |
575 |
3739 |
26 |
28 |
533 |
4135 |
26 |
15 |
Kerry Collins |
1995 |
433 |
2717 |
14 |
19 |
364 |
2454 |
14 |
9 |
Drew Bledsoe |
1993 |
429 |
2494 |
15 |
15 |
691 |
4555 |
25 |
27 |
Rick Mirer |
1993 |
486 |
2833 |
12 |
17 |
381 |
2151 |
11 |
7 |
Jeff George |
1990 |
334 |
2152 |
16 |
13 |
485 |
2910 |
10 |
12 |
Troy Aikman |
1989 |
293 |
1749 |
9 |
18 |
399 |
2579 |
11 |
18 |
Steve Walsh |
1989 |
219 |
1371 |
5 |
9 |
327 |
1970 |
12 |
13 |
Bernie Kosar |
1985 |
248 |
1578 |
8 |
7 |
531 |
3854 |
17 |
10 |
Dan Marino |
1983 |
296 |
2210 |
20 |
6 |
564 |
5084 |
48 |
17 |
John Elway |
1983 |
259 |
1663 |
7 |
14 |
380 |
2598 |
18 |
15 |
Jim McMahon |
1982 |
210 |
1501 |
9 |
7 |
295 |
2184 |
12 |
13 |
Steve Fuller |
1979 |
270 |
1484 |
6 |
14 |
320 |
2250 |
10 |
12 |
Phil Simms |
1979 |
265 |
1743 |
13 |
14 |
402 |
2321 |
15 |
19 |
Average |
337 |
2153 |
12 |
13 |
417 |
2782 |
16 |
13 |
|
Raw numbers are nice, but they can be misleading since second year quarterbacks tend to start more games than they did as first years. Here are some efficiency numbers:
Quarterback |
Rookie Year |
Second Year |
|||||||
Year |
Y/A |
TD% |
FPs |
FP/G |
Y/A |
TD% |
FPs |
FP/G |
|
Matt Ryan |
2008 |
7.9 |
3.7% |
246.4 |
15.4 |
6.5 |
4.9% |
238.7 |
17.1 |
Joe Flacco |
2008 |
6.9 |
3.3% |
229.4 |
14.3 |
7.2 |
4.2% |
267.9 |
16.7 |
Vince Young |
2006 |
6.2 |
3.4% |
241.2 |
16.1 |
6.7 |
2.4% |
195.8 |
13.1 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
2004 |
8.9 |
5.8% |
214.5 |
15.3 |
8.9 |
6.3% |
211.2 |
17.6 |
Byron Leftwich |
2003 |
6.7 |
3.3% |
201.8 |
13.5 |
6.7 |
3.4% |
228.7 |
16.3 |
Kyle Boller |
2003 |
5.6 |
3.1% |
86.2 |
7.8 |
5.5 |
2.8% |
195.9 |
12.2 |
Joey Harrington |
2002 |
5.3 |
2.8% |
143.1 |
10.2 |
5.2 |
3.1% |
194.9 |
12.2 |
David Carr |
2002 |
5.8 |
2.0% |
190.8 |
11.9 |
6.8 |
3.1% |
146.8 |
12.2 |
Patrick Ramsey |
2002 |
6.8 |
4.0% |
111.9 |
11.2 |
6.4 |
4.2% |
172.5 |
15.7 |
Cade McNown |
1999 |
6.2 |
3.4% |
109.3 |
7.3 |
5.9 |
2.9% |
154.9 |
15.5 |
Donovan McNabb |
1999 |
4.4 |
3.7% |
104.6 |
8.7 |
5.9 |
3.7% |
347.7 |
21.7 |
Tim Couch |
1999 |
6.1 |
3.8% |
204.1 |
13.6 |
6.9 |
3.3% |
95.7 |
0.0 |
Peyton Manning |
1998 |
6.5 |
4.5% |
267.2 |
16.7 |
7.8 |
4.9% |
326.1 |
20.4 |
Kerry Collins |
1995 |
6.3 |
3.2% |
193.3 |
12.9 |
6.7 |
3.8% |
178.5 |
13.7 |
Drew Bledsoe |
1993 |
5.8 |
3.5% |
177.9 |
13.7 |
6.6 |
3.6% |
302.8 |
18.9 |
Rick Mirer |
1993 |
5.8 |
2.5% |
220.0 |
13.7 |
5.6 |
2.9% |
163.9 |
12.6 |
Jeff George |
1990 |
6.4 |
4.8% |
167.8 |
12.9 |
6.0 |
2.1% |
175.1 |
10.9 |
Troy Aikman |
1989 |
6.0 |
3.1% |
125.9 |
11.4 |
6.5 |
2.8% |
171.2 |
11.4 |
Steve Walsh |
1989 |
6.3 |
2.3% |
77.2 |
9.6 |
6.0 |
3.7% |
137.0 |
10.5 |
Bernie Kosar |
1985 |
6.4 |
3.2% |
109.7 |
9.1 |
7.3 |
3.2% |
260.2 |
16.3 |
Dan Marino |
1983 |
7.5 |
6.8% |
215.0 |
19.5 |
9.0 |
8.5% |
459.5 |
28.7 |
John Elway |
1983 |
6.4 |
2.7% |
110.8 |
10.1 |
6.8 |
4.7% |
219.6 |
14.6 |
Jim McMahon |
1982 |
7.1 |
4.3% |
122.6 |
15.3 |
7.4 |
4.1% |
194.2 |
13.9 |
Steve Fuller |
1979 |
5.5 |
2.2% |
108.6 |
6.8 |
7.0 |
3.1% |
189.9 |
13.6 |
Phil Simms |
1979 |
6.6 |
4.9% |
146.8 |
12.2 |
5.8 |
3.7% |
178.1 |
13.7 |
Average |
6.4 |
3.6% |
165.0 |
12.4 |
6.7 |
3.8% |
216.2 |
14.8 |
|
On average, the second year quarterbacks increased their yards per attempt average by 0.3, and increased their fantasy output by over 2 points per game. Stafford ranked as the 20th quarterback last season in fantasy points per game. If he averaged 2.4 more FP/G last year, he would have finished as QB13. Stafford's current ADP is QB16, which makes me think he might be slightly undervalued. Obviously the above mat was a simplistic method to project Stafford's 2010 production, but there are good reasons to think he'll improve even more than the average fantasy rookie quarterback.
For starters, he was just 21 years old last season; really young quarterbacks tend to make even bigger gains between years one and two than older rookies. And since last season, the Lions have added Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler in the off-season, along with Jahvid Best in the draft. All of those should make the Lions offense more productive in 2010. There are so many good quarterbacks out there that it's hard to put Stafford into your top 12, but there's no reason to think he won't make nice strides this year. At least at his current ADP, he looks a little undervalued.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.