Is all hope lost for Marshawn Lynch? Lynch was very productive in his first two seasons, rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring at least seven touchdowns each year. Then, last season, his play fell off, and he lost his starting job to Fred Jackson. Our resident Bills fan on staff, Aaron Rudnicki, asked me if there was any precedent for the sort of dropoff Lynch has had, unrelated to injury. As it turns out, there is.
It's not particularly clear exactly what we're looking for when it comes to "comparables" for Lynch, but here was the query I ran:
All running backs who, in their first two seasons in the league, ranked among the top 15 fantasy running backs In year three, the running back ranked outside of the top 35 despite playing in at least 10 games
Only three running backs in the last 40 years meet those criteria. Like Lynch, the other two running backs were also first round picks. In 1993, Jerome Bettis rumbled for 1,429 yards and 7 touchdowns, and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. He ranked as the #3 fantasy back. But in 1994, Bettis' play fell off significantly. Despite starting every game, he rushed for only 1,025 yards on an anemic 3.2 YPC average. He only scored four touchdowns, but chipped in with 31 receptions and 293 yards, good enough to just sneak into the top 15. Then, in '95, he played in 15 games but rushed for only 637 yards and 3 touchdowns, on a paltry 3.5 YPC average. The Rams (now in St. Louis) didn't give the job to another running back, but they added Leonard Russell from Denver (66 carries), Greg Robinson from the Raiders (40 carries) and gave more carries to Johnny Bailey (36) and UDFA Brett Moss (22). Together, the quartet rushed for 640 yards on 164 carries, slightly better than how Bettis performed.
After three years, Bettis had one phenomenal year and two unimpressive seasons, with the last one being downright ugly. The day of the 1996 draft, St. Louis drafted RB Lawrence Phillips with the sixth selection. Then the Rams traded Bettis to the Steelers for pennies on the dollar: they jumped from the 72nd pick to the 59th and received Pittsburgh's 1997 fourth round pick. Buffalo saw two good years out of Lynch, then watched him regress in 2009. In the 2010 draft, they drafted C.J. Spiller with the 9th pick, and allegedly spent the remainder of the draft trying to ship Lynch to the highest bidder. Whether Buffalo never received an attractive enough offer or they simply didn't want to sell him for cheap, we'll never know. What we do know is that Bettis rushed for 1,431 yards his first year in Pittsburgh and then 1,665 yards in '97. He ended his career as the fifth leading rusher in league history.
Joseph Addai rushed for 1,000 yards, caught 40+ passes and gained 300+ receiving yards in each of his first two seasons. He ranked as the #12 running back as a rookie; then, after scoring 15 touchdowns in 2007, he ranked as the #4 RB in his second season. In his third year, however, he rushed for only 544 yards and looked ineffective in doing so; the Colts gave 187 carries to Dominic Rhodes as Addai's numbers dropped. More disturbing was that his YPC dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 to 3.5 by his third season. And *then* the Colts drafted Donald Brown with their first round pick in 2009. But Addai shocked everyone with a RB8 finish in 2009, with 13 touchdowns, 828 rushing yards and 336 receiving yards. Addai only averaged 3.8 yards per carry last year, so I'm still relatively down on Addai as a fantasy player (see the Addai spotlight). But the point for Lynch owners is that Addai rebounded from an ugly 2008, which in retrospect was blamed on a hamstring injury.
For Lynch, it's easy to tell a similar story. His 3.8 YPC average wasn't far off from how he performed in his first two seasons. He lost his job because Fred Jackson had a fantastic season, and was a better fit to play behind the Bills porous offensive line. I don't have high hopes for Lynch in '10, and he most likely will need to change teams to resurrect his career. But 33 running backs have rushed for 1,000 yards for multiple teams, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lynch one day join them.
Running Back |
Teams |
Running Back |
Teams |
Running Back |
Teams |
Thomas
Jones |
CHI-NYJ |
Antowain Smith |
BUF-NWE |
Earnest Byner |
CLE-WAS |
Reuben Droughns |
DEN-CLE |
Corey Dillon |
CIN-NWE |
Greg Bell |
BUF-RAM |
Willis McGahee |
BUF-BAL |
Adrian Murrell |
NYJ-ARI |
Earnest Jackson |
SDG-PHI |
Travis Henry |
BUF-TEN |
Garrison Hearst |
ARI-SFO |
Eric Dickerson |
RAM-IND |
Clinton Portis |
DEN-WAS |
Curtis Martin |
NWE-NYJ |
George Rogers |
NOR-WAS |
Jamal Lewis |
BAL-CLE |
Marshall Faulk |
IND-STL |
Ottis Anderson |
STL-NYG |
Ricky Williams |
NOR-MIA |
Jerome Bettis |
RAM-PIT |
Chuck Muncie |
NOR-SDG |
Stephen Davis |
WAS-CAR |
Gary Brown |
HOU-NYG |
Wendell Tyler |
RAM-SFO |
Edgerrin James |
IND-ARI |
Ricky Watters |
SFO-PHI-SEA |
Delvin Williams |
SFO-MIA |
Warrick Dunn |
TAM-ATL |
Terry Allen |
MIN-WAS |
John Riggins |
NYJ-WAS |
Priest Holmes |
BAL-KAN |
Herschel Walker |
DAL-PHI |
Mike Garrett |
KAN-SDG |
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.