Generally, people look at rushing yards, rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns when they talk about a team's success on the ground. But I also like to look at how many rushing first downs a team has -- great rushing teams are able to consistently move the chains on the ground. Last year, the Colts ranked dead last in the league in rushing first downs. That didn't matter too much, considering how incredible their passing game was. In fact, the '09 the Colts became the first team in league history to gain 170 more first downs through the air than on the ground. The table below shows last year's numbers:
Team |
Rush |
Pass |
Diff |
Indianapolis Colts |
69 |
241 |
172 |
San Diego Chargers |
80 |
222 |
142 |
Houston Texans |
93 |
231 |
138 |
Arizona Cardinals |
77 |
215 |
138 |
Minnesota Vikings |
99 |
220 |
121 |
Washington Redskins |
72 |
191 |
119 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
96 |
210 |
114 |
New England Patriots |
114 |
222 |
108 |
Seattle Seahawks |
80 |
184 |
104 |
New Orleans Saints |
115 |
215 |
100 |
Green Bay Packers |
102 |
201 |
99 |
Chicago Bears |
71 |
170 |
99 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
87 |
182 |
95 |
Dallas Cowboys |
110 |
203 |
93 |
New York Giants |
103 |
194 |
91 |
Denver Broncos |
95 |
186 |
91 |
Atlanta Falcons |
105 |
192 |
87 |
Detroit Lions |
82 |
168 |
86 |
St. Louis Rams |
79 |
159 |
80 |
Baltimore Ravens |
115 |
187 |
72 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
80 |
148 |
68 |
San Francisco 49ers |
77 |
137 |
60 |
Miami Dolphins |
129 |
188 |
59 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
114 |
170 |
56 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
109 |
159 |
50 |
Oakland Raiders |
81 |
131 |
50 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
91 |
139 |
48 |
Buffalo Bills |
81 |
126 |
45 |
Tennessee Titans |
115 |
154 |
39 |
Carolina Panthers |
123 |
152 |
29 |
Cleveland Browns |
102 |
118 |
16 |
New York Jets |
132 |
131 |
-1 |
Joseph Addai had 44 of those rushing first downs. Donald Brown chipped in with 14, Chad Simpson had five, Mike Hart had four, and Dallas Clark and Pierre Garcon each had one. One of the keys to a good running game is to make big gains on first down. Few running backs were less effective in first-and-ten situations last season than Addai:
Player |
Rush |
Yards |
YPC |
Jamaal Charles |
80 |
515 |
6.44 |
Willis McGahee |
53 |
338 |
6.38 |
Felix Jones |
67 |
401 |
5.99 |
Michael Bush |
57 |
322 |
5.65 |
Ahmad Bradshaw |
76 |
428 |
5.63 |
Correll Buckhalter |
69 |
387 |
5.61 |
Frank Gore |
102 |
559 |
5.48 |
Ronnie Brown |
65 |
340 |
5.23 |
Rashard Mendenhall |
129 |
672 |
5.21 |
Pierre Thomas |
77 |
398 |
5.17 |
Adrian Peterson |
157 |
807 |
5.14 |
Maurice Morris |
50 |
256 |
5.12 |
Chris Wells |
105 |
536 |
5.10 |
Jason Snelling |
63 |
318 |
5.05 |
Justin Forsett |
43 |
216 |
5.02 |
Ray Rice |
136 |
681 |
5.01 |
Clinton Portis |
69 |
342 |
4.96 |
Ryan Grant |
160 |
793 |
4.96 |
Ricky Williams |
113 |
560 |
4.96 |
Chris Johnson |
178 |
880 |
4.94 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
142 |
694 |
4.89 |
DeAngelo Williams |
103 |
501 |
4.86 |
Justin Fargas |
58 |
277 |
4.78 |
Marion Barber |
100 |
471 |
4.71 |
Shonn Greene |
59 |
272 |
4.61 |
Tim Hightower |
75 |
341 |
4.55 |
Jerome Harrison |
103 |
468 |
4.54 |
Jonathan Stewart |
104 |
471 |
4.53 |
Steven Jackson |
188 |
843 |
4.48 |
Fred Jackson |
116 |
515 |
4.44 |
Cedric Benson |
138 |
610 |
4.42 |
Brandon Jacobs |
96 |
412 |
4.29 |
LeSean McCoy |
77 |
330 |
4.29 |
Ryan Moats |
51 |
216 |
4.24 |
Thomas Jones |
162 |
681 |
4.20 |
Marshawn Lynch |
64 |
269 |
4.20 |
Michael Turner |
100 |
420 |
4.20 |
Julius Jones |
90 |
374 |
4.16 |
Cadillac Williams |
94 |
390 |
4.15 |
Mike Bell |
86 |
353 |
4.10 |
Donald Brown |
41 |
168 |
4.10 |
Jamal Lewis |
72 |
290 |
4.03 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
124 |
485 |
3.91 |
Willie Parker |
53 |
205 |
3.87 |
Knowshon Moreno |
142 |
549 |
3.87 |
Joseph Addai |
127 |
491 |
3.87 |
Darren McFadden |
52 |
199 |
3.83 |
Kevin Smith |
108 |
410 |
3.80 |
Laurence Maroney |
100 |
375 |
3.75 |
Derrick Ward |
56 |
192 |
3.43 |
Steve Slaton |
70 |
238 |
3.40 |
Matt Forte |
112 |
380 |
3.39 |
Darren Sproles |
43 |
140 |
3.26 |
Larry Johnson |
98 |
308 |
3.14 |
Glen Coffee |
44 |
114 |
2.59 |
I'm not sure if Donald Brown's the answer. His 4.10 YPC average on 1st-and-10 isn't particularly impressive, although his average was 4.59 before Peyton Manning came out of the Colts week 16 game against the Jets. Brown's rookie season can be best described as mediocre, but that doesn't mean he's not going to make a good pro. And it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see him steal the job from Addai as soon as this year.
The Colts won nearly every game they played last season, and it's easy to think that there's no need to tinker with their current formula, especially on offense. Indianapolis is a pass-heavy team, and they don't ask for much out of their running game. But that doesn't mean they won't upgrade when they see fit. And no team had a worse running game than the Colts in 2009. Addai is a good receiver and a skilled blocker, but he's a mediocre runner. He's got good fantasy value (especially in PPR leagues) because he plays for Indianapolis, but I'm not planning on drafting Addai for any of my teams this year. I can handle passing on Addai and seeing him slightly outperform his ADP; I can't stomach drafting him and watching him get benched, with these many signs on the wall.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.