Felix Jones is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy circles. Some look at his astronomically high yards-per-carry average and think he's the next great running back. Others look at his inability to ever receive than 16 carries in a game as a sign that he'll never be a workhorse back. It's easy to see both sides of the argument. Whenever he touches the ball, he looks so good, one suspects there has to be a reason he doesn't get fed the rock more frequently. Right?
I went back to 1960 and looked at the top 15 performances -- as measured by yards per carry -- among guys who had between 75 and 150 carries in their first or second season of play. The full list, below:
Player |
Team |
Year |
Gm |
Rush |
Yards |
TDs |
YPC |
TmCar |
% of TC |
Jerious Norwood |
ATL |
2007 |
15 |
103 |
613 |
1 |
6.0 |
354 |
29.1% |
Jerious Norwood |
ATL |
2006 |
14 |
99 |
633 |
2 |
6.4 |
405 |
24.4% |
Tatum Bell |
DEN |
2004 |
14 |
75 |
396 |
3 |
5.3 |
459 |
16.3% |
Najeh Davenport |
GNB |
2003 |
15 |
77 |
420 |
2 |
5.5 |
473 |
16.3% |
Onterrio Smith |
MIN |
2003 |
15 |
107 |
579 |
5 |
5.4 |
388 |
27.6% |
Trung Canidate |
STL |
2001 |
16 |
78 |
441 |
6 |
5.7 |
354 |
22.0% |
Napoleon Kaufman |
OAK |
1996 |
16 |
150 |
874 |
1 |
5.8 |
403 |
37.2% |
Charlie Garner |
PHI |
1995 |
15 |
108 |
588 |
6 |
5.4 |
453 |
23.8% |
Bo Jackson |
RAI |
1987 |
7 |
81 |
554 |
4 |
6.8 |
428 |
18.9% |
Ted McKnight |
KAN |
1978 |
16 |
104 |
627 |
6 |
6.0 |
629 |
16.5% |
Delvin Williams |
SFO |
1975 |
14 |
117 |
631 |
3 |
5.4 |
391 |
29.9% |
Bob L. Thomas |
RAM |
1972 |
14 |
77 |
433 |
3 |
5.6 |
448 |
17.2% |
Ernie Green |
CLE |
1963 |
14 |
87 |
526 |
0 |
6.0 |
392 |
22.2% |
Amos Marsh |
DAL |
1962 |
14 |
144 |
802 |
6 |
5.6 |
407 |
35.4% |
Dick Bass |
RAM |
1961 |
14 |
98 |
608 |
4 |
6.2 |
341 |
28.7% |
Average |
14.2 |
100 |
582 |
3.5 |
5.8 |
422 |
24.4% |
||
Felix Jones |
DAL |
2009 |
14 |
116 |
685 |
3 |
5.9 |
394 |
29.4% |
Is Jones comparable to the member of that group? Trung Canidate was a bust who had little running instincts but lots of speed; he flashed briefly for one season. Jerious Norwood and Tatum Bell were big play specialists but (to date) never handled heavy loads. Napolean Kaufman and Charlie Garner were little guys who were able to do some big things. Whether or not Jones is more talented than those players is up for debate. What's interesting, though, is the similarity between Jones' numbers last year and the average statistics of the group. Jones had a slightly higher YPC average and took a few more carries, while rushing for half a touchdown less. Suffice it to say, I think the players are a decent group of comparable players. Note that, on average, they handled just 24.4% of carries given to their team's running backs, while Jones had 29.4% of all rushes by Cowboys running backs last season.
The big question about Jones' fantasy value isn't if he's good, it's if he'll get a lot of carries. If he gets 300 touches this season, he's going to be a fantasy steal. If he's stuck with another 116 carries, he'll be a bust at his ADP (just outside of the top 20). And that's why I wanted to look at the group of 15 players listed above. Like Jones, they were all young players who just entered the league and had enormous productivity on a per-touch basis. Did their touches increase the next season?
Player |
Team |
Year |
Gm |
Rush |
Yards |
TDs |
YPC |
TmCar |
% of TC |
Jerious Norwood |
ATL |
2008 |
16 |
95 |
489 |
4 |
5.1 |
491 |
19.3% |
Jerious Norwood |
ATL |
2007 |
15 |
103 |
613 |
1 |
6.0 |
354 |
29.1% |
Tatum Bell |
DEN |
2005 |
15 |
173 |
921 |
8 |
5.3 |
474 |
36.5% |
Najeh Davenport |
GNB |
2004 |
11 |
71 |
359 |
2 |
5.1 |
411 |
17.3% |
Onterrio Smith |
MIN |
2004 |
11 |
124 |
544 |
2 |
4.4 |
289 |
42.9% |
Trung Canidate |
STL |
2002 |
16 |
17 |
48 |
0 |
2.8 |
298 |
5.7% |
Napoleon Kaufman |
OAK |
1997 |
16 |
272 |
1294 |
6 |
4.8 |
336 |
81.0% |
Charlie Garner |
PHI |
1996 |
15 |
66 |
346 |
1 |
5.2 |
437 |
15.1% |
Bo Jackson |
RAI |
1988 |
10 |
136 |
580 |
3 |
4.3 |
418 |
32.5% |
Ted McKnight |
KAN |
1979 |
15 |
153 |
755 |
8 |
4.9 |
443 |
34.5% |
Delvin Williams |
SFO |
1976 |
13 |
248 |
1203 |
7 |
4.9 |
507 |
48.9% |
Bob L. Thomas |
SDG |
1973 |
14 |
22 |
48 |
0 |
2.2 |
402 |
5.5% |
Ernie Green |
CLE |
1964 |
14 |
109 |
491 |
6 |
4.5 |
397 |
27.5% |
Amos Marsh |
DAL |
1963 |
14 |
99 |
483 |
5 |
4.9 |
376 |
26.3% |
Dick Bass |
RAM |
1962 |
14 |
196 |
1033 |
6 |
5.3 |
341 |
57.5% |
Average |
13.9 |
126 |
614 |
3.9 |
4.9 |
398 |
31.5% |
Seven of them had at least 30% of their team's carries by running backs the next season, but only two of them had half of their team's running back's carries. Only one of them became a true workhorse, when Kaufman shined in 1997. Delvin Williams received a huge workload for the 49ers, although they were a very run heavy team. Jerious Norwood (both times) remained the change-of-pace running back for Atlanta. Tatum Bell took a larger share of the pie, but still was a committee member. There just isn't much precedent to bank on Jones stealing the job and becoming the Cowboys' main man (to put it another way, I don't see him Harvey Williamsing Marion Barber). It's not like the Cowboys didn't know how good Jones was last season, and now they'll realize it and use him more often. Jones was a first round pick, and averaged 8.9 YPC on 30 carries as a rookie. Then, last year, with Jones tearing it up whenever his number was called, and Barber hurt with multiple leg injuries, he still received 98 fewer carries than Barber. Now, with Barber healthy, I don't think we're going to see Jones suddenly steal the job.
I know that Jones had 10, 10, 14, 10, 15, 16 and 14 carries in the last six games of the season, including the playoffs, putting him on a pace for well over 225 carries. But he still only received 46% of the carries given to Cowboys running backs during that stretch, and that was with Barber playing on fumes. The fantasy world would love to see Felix Jones get more carries, but I think he hasn't had big carry numbers for a good reason. Marion Barber is a very good running back, and the Cowboys feel that Jones is best served -- at least for now -- as the change of pace guy.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.