Donald Brown was the 27th draft pick in the 2009 draft. He had an average draft position of RB34 as a rookie, and failed to live up to those standards, ending the year as the 58th best running back. Now, in 2010, he has an ADP of RB43. From 2000 to 2008, there were seven running backs who met the following criteria:

Top-60 draft pick

Rookie ADP outside of the top 20 but inside of the top 50

Rookie rank outside of the top 35 but inside the top 75

Sophomore year ADP inside of the top 60

The average metrics of those seven players are almost identical to Brown's line when it comes to draft pick, rookie year ADP and rookie year production. But what about sophomore year ADP? Of that group, not a single player had as low an ADP of Brown. Further, Brown's production came in only 11 games last season, making it reasonable to conclude that he was a bit better than his year end numbers appeared (the seven players above averaged 14 games played as rookies). Let's look at each of those seven players a little more closely:

1. Thomas Jones - The Cardinals had a terrible offense in the late '90s/early '00s, and Jones was expected to at least solve the running game's woes. Instead, he busted as a rookie, and Michael Pittman surprisingly stole the starting job. Entering Jones' second season, Pittman was viewed as the team's starting running back, and had an ADP of RB29. Jones posted anemic numbers again in his second season.


2. T.J. Duckett - Atlanta ranked as the 16th best rushing team in 2001, but made sweeping changes after the season. Michael Vick was named the team's starting quarterback, Warrick Dunn was signed from Tampa Bay, and the Falcons selected Duckett in the first round of the '02 draft. Over the next five seasons, the Falcons would lead the league in rushing yards and yards per attempt three times and finish fourth in rushing yards a fourth time (the fifth season was the one when Vick missed nearly the entire year due to injury). Duckett started only three games as a rookie, taking a backseat to Dunn. In 2003, Dunn had an ADP of 24, making him the clear preference of the fantasy community when it came to Falcons running backs. But Dunn missed five games due to injury while Duckett became a terrific goal-line back, rushing for 11 scores on 197 yards, and finished as the 23rd best fantasy back.


3. Ray Rice - None of us need a history lesson on Rice. He, like Duckett, was part of a three-headed committee as a rookie. While Rice posted decent numbers, Le'Ron McClain stole the show with 902 yards and 10 touchdowns, and Willis McGahee chipped in with 671 yards and seven scores. But the Ravens made it clear that Rice was the future of the team, and fantasy owners drafted Rice well ahead of McClain and McGahee (ADPs of RB 46 and 47). Fantasy owners who believed in Rice saw their trust pay off: he finished last season as the number 4 fantasy running back.


4. Tatum Bell - Bell wasn't stuck in a three-headed committee like Duckett and Rice; for Bell it was worse. He was stuck playing for Mike Shanahan, who changed his running backs as often as his socks. In 2004, Quentin Griffin started the season as the main running back (ADP of RB23) but it was Reuben Droughns who rumbled for 1,240 yards (who surpassed Garrison Heart, who had an ADP of RB46 entering the year). Bell had a terrific 5.3 yards per carry average but held minimal fantasy value. Mike Anderson had missed the entire 2004 season due to injury; with him coming back, the Broncos traded Droughns to the Browns. Entering 2005, Anderson had an ADP of RB24 Bell had an ADP of RB26, and newly signed Ron Dayne an ADP of RB61. Anderson ended the year as RB 11 and Bell as RB24, making them both solid fantasy options.


5. Shaun Alexander - Ricky Watters had eight consecutive top-ten seasons from 1992 to 1999. The Seahawks drafted Alexander as the running back of the future in '00, and fantasy owners held mixed opinions. Entering 2000, Watters had an ADP of RB19 and Alexander of RB28. Watters made it nine straight top-ten seasons while Alexander mostly sat on the bench. Fantasy owners expected more of the same the next season, moving Watters up to RB15 and Alexander down to RB38. Watters started the first three games of the season, while Alexander gained just 27 rushing yards. But Watters injured his right shoulder in the third game, and Alexander took the job and never looked back. He rushed for 176/2 in his first start, and followed that up with 142/2 in his second. In week 8, he rushed for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. Alexander led the league in rushing touchdowns and finished as the #4 fantasy back.


6. Deuce McAllister - The Saints mortgaged the farm to get Ricky Williams in 1999, but had already begun growing tired of his act by 2001. They drafted McAllister in the first round that year, but it was clear that Williams (if he could stay healthy) was the main man. Williams had an ADP of RB5, and for the first time in his career, played in all 16 games. He finished the year as RB7, while McAllister was relegated to return duties (he had just 16 carries all year). The Saints decided to move on in the off-season, though, and traded Ricky to the Dolphins. Predictably, McAllister's ADP shot up to RB12, although it wasn't quite as high as Ricky's fourth-place ADP in Miami. Both turned out to be fantasy gold: Williams finished as RB2, while McAllister ranked as the 8th best running back.


7. LenDale White - The thunder to Reggie Bush's lightning at USC, White was drafted by the Titans Eddie George of the next decade. Chris Brown (ADP RB 32) was the presumed starter, but it was Travis Henry (ADP RB 54) who ended up rushing for 1,200 yards in 14 games. The Titans released Henry after the season, and drafted Chris Henry out of Arizona in the 2nd round of the '07 draft. The fantasy community didn't know what to make of White, Henry and Brown, as all three RBs had ADPs between RB40 and RB50. But White stole the show, rushing for 1,110 yards and 7 TDs, ranking as the 16th best fantasy running back.

What's all this mean for Brown? Sure, if Joseph Addai was traded or suffered an injury, Brown's chances of success would be greater. But players like Rice, White and Bell muscled their way into the lineup, demanding more time with good play. I think there's a good chance Brown does the same thing in 2010.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.