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Player Points - DeSean Jackson
By Chase Stuart
July 15th, 2010

Last year, DeSean Jackson finished 4th in non-PPR leagues, impressive work for a 23-year-old receiver. But as of mid-July, he's being drafted as the 9th wide receiver in traditional fantasy leagues. So why isn't he getting more love? It's possible that fantasy owners are penalizing him now that Kevin Kolb will be his quarterback instead of Donovan McNabb. But I think the larger issue is that Jackson was a big-play monster last year, and fantasy owners don't think he can repeat that sort of success. In 2009, he had 10 catches of 40+ yards, in addition to a 67-yard rushing touchdown and two punt return scores of over 70 yards. And he did all that despite missing a game and a half following a concussion. He was such a big play machine that his eleven biggest catches (the last of those being a 39-yard reception) accounted for over half of his receiving yards and two-thirds of his receiving touchdowns. Fantasy owners are understandably concerned that if over half of his value came on only 11 passes last season, he's a risky bet to replicate that success in 2010.

While Jackson wasn't the only wide receiver to make the occasional big play, he did lead the league in 40+ yard receptions:

Wide Receiver
40+ Yard Catches
DeSean Jackson
10
Andre Johnson
9
Miles Austin
8
Sidney Rice
7
Randy Moss
7
Steve Smith
7
Greg Jennings
6
Mike Wallace
6
Terrell Owens
5
Malcom Floyd
5
Donald Driver
5
Hakeem Nicks
5
Kenny Britt
4
Calvin Johnson
4
Jerricho Cotchery
4
Hines Ward
4
Santana Moss
4
Derrick Mason
4
Vincent Jackson
4
Brandon Marshall
4
Roddy White
4
Marques Colston
4
Chris Chambers
4

So how many 40+ yard catches should we project for Jackson next season? I don't know, and I won't know until the 2010 season ends. But that doesn't mean we can't take an educated guess. From 2002-2008, 46 different receivers had at least 6 receptions of that distance in any given year. How did those receivers perform in the next season?

Wide Receiver
Year
Age
40+ N
40+ N+1
G N
G N+1
40/16 N
40/16 N+1
FP/G N
FP/G N_1
Santana Moss
2005
26
10
4
16
14
10.0
4.6
15.3
10.8
Randy Moss
2007
30
9
3
16
16
9.0
3.0
21.0
12.6
Terrell Owens
2004
31
9
4
14
7
10.3
9.1
17.3
--
Devery Henderson
2006
24
8
3
13
16
9.8
3.0
9.8
4.4
Greg Jennings
2008
25
8
6
16
16
8.0
6.0
14.0
10.7
Chad Johnson
2006
28
8
4
16
16
8.0
4.0
14.1
15.2
Joey Galloway
2007
36
8
0
15
9
8.5
0.0
11.1
2.3
Calvin Johnson
2008
23
7
4
16
14
7.0
4.6
15.3
12.1
Lee Evans
2005
24
7
6
16
16
7.0
6.0
9.0
13.6
Greg Jennings
2007
24
7
8
13
16
8.6
8.0
14.7
14.0
Chad Johnson
2003
25
7
5
16
16
7.0
5.0
15.0
14.6
Vincent Jackson
2008
25
7
4
16
15
7.0
4.3
11.8
13.7
Steve Smith
2005
26
7
4
16
14
7.0
4.6
18.0
15.6
Dennis Northcutt
2004
27
7
2
16
16
7.0
2.0
7.6
5.0
Chad Johnson
2005
27
7
8
16
16
7.0
8.0
15.6
14.1
Bernard Berrian
2008
28
7
1
16
16
7.0
1.0
10.3
7.1
Terry Glenn
2005
31
7
5
16
15
7.0
5.3
12.0
11.8
Javon Walker
2004
26
7
0
16
1
7.0
0.0
15.9
--
Kelly Campbell
2003
23
6
4
15
16
6.4
4.0
6.4
3.3
Lee Evans
2004
23
6
7
16
16
6.0
7.0
10.7
9.0
Santonio Holmes
2007
23
6
2
13
15
7.4
2.1
13.1
9.4
Anquan Boldin
2003
23
6
0
16
10
6.0
0.0
14.9
9.7
Quincy Morgan
2002
25
6
2
16
16
6.0
2.0
10.4
5.5
Randy Moss
2002
25
6
6
16
16
6.0
6.0
15.0
20.2
Santana Moss
2004
25
6
10
15
16
6.4
10.0
9.2
15.3
Reggie Brown
2006
25
6
2
16
16
6.0
2.0
10.1
8.5
Lee Evans
2006
25
6
3
16
16
6.0
3.0
13.6
8.9
Travis Taylor
2003
25
6
1
16
10
6.0
1.6
6.7
5.9
Peerless Price
2002
26
6
5
16
16
6.0
5.0
14.1
8.4
Bernard Berrian
2006
26
6
2
15
16
6.4
2.0
9.3
10.0
Devery Henderson
2008
26
6
3
16
16
6.0
3.0
7.3
7.5
Mark Clayton
2008
26
6
1
16
14
6.0
1.1
8.0
5.7
Randy Moss
2003
26
6
6
16
13
6.0
7.4
20.2
13.8
Randy Moss
2004
27
6
4
13
16
7.4
4.0
13.8
11.2
Darrell Jackson
2006
28
6
0
13
15
7.4
0.0
14.4
6.0
Plaxico Burress
2006
29
6
5
15
16
6.4
5.0
12.7
13.1
Amani Toomer
2003
29
6
3
16
15
6.0
3.2
10.5
6.7
Steve Smith
2008
29
6
7
14
15
6.9
7.5
15.8
11.7
Eric Moulds
2002
29
6
1
16
13
6.0
1.2
15.0
8.9
Joe Horn
2002
30
6
3
16
15
6.0
3.2
13.6
13.2
Eddie Kennison
2004
31
6
5
14
16
6.9
5.0
13.5
11.2
Donald Driver
2008
33
6
5
16
16
6.0
5.0
10.5
11.2
Terrell Owens
2007
34
6
6
15
16
6.4
6.0
17.8
12.7
Terrell Owens
2008
35
6
5
16
16
6.0
5.0
12.7
9.5
Joey Galloway
2006
35
6
8
16
15
6.0
8.5
11.2
11.1
Todd Pinkston
2004
27
6
0
16
0
6.0
--
5.7
--
Overall
27.2
6.6
4.0
15.4
15.0
6.9
4.2
12.7
10.3
25 or Younger
24.2
6.5
4.3
15.4
15.1
6.9
4.4
11.7
10.5

Overall, the group dropped from 6.9 40+ yard catches per 16 games in Year N to 4.2 40+ yard catches per 16 games the following season. Looking at just young players like Jackson doesn't provide more inspiration. On the other hand, check out the fantasy points per game production of the young player. While the 25-and-under crowd had 2.5 fewer big receptions per 16 games, they managed to do a pretty good job of holding their fantasy value. It would be reasonable to conclude, especially if you're a Jackson fan, that once defenses focus on stopping him deep, he'll increase his number of short receptions. If Jackson drops from ten 40+ yard catches in '09 to seven in 2009, he might make up for that with ten shorter catches that he converted because defenses respected his deep speed. Jackson's unlikely to score a bunch of really long touchdowns again in 2010, and that's why he probably shouldn't be a top-five wide receiver in your projections. But the most important factors -- Jackson's an elite athlete, in a high-octane offense, who is constantly improving as an NFL receiver -- haven't changed.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.

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