There are more things to say about the ageless Brett Favre than there are sportswriters in America. You might think there's nothing one could write about Favre that hasn't been uttered before. I was thinking that, too, at least until I checked out Favre's home/road splits. In 2009, he averaged an incredible 27.1 FP/G at home, compared to a more pedestrian 18.2 FP/G on the road. Seven of Favre's nine best fantasy games came in front of his home crowd, and an eighth occurred at familiar Lambeau Field. The table below shows the home/road splits for each of last year's top 15 fantasy QBs:
Quarterback |
Team |
Year |
FPs |
FP/G |
HomeFP/G |
RoadFP/G |
Diff |
Brett Favre |
MIN |
2009 |
361.8 |
22.6 |
27.1 |
18.1 |
9.1 |
Tom Brady |
NWE |
2009 |
344.3 |
21.5 |
26.0 |
17.0 |
9.0 |
David Garrard |
JAX |
2009 |
285.2 |
17.8 |
21.2 |
14.5 |
6.7 |
Jay Cutler |
CHI |
2009 |
289.6 |
18.1 |
20.6 |
15.6 |
5.0 |
Donovan McNabb |
PHI |
2009 |
293.7 |
21.0 |
23.7 |
18.9 |
4.8 |
Drew Brees |
NOR |
2009 |
382.7 |
25.5 |
27.3 |
23.4 |
3.9 |
Eli Manning |
NYG |
2009 |
314.6 |
19.7 |
21.3 |
18.0 |
3.4 |
Kurt Warner |
ARI |
2009 |
290.7 |
19.4 |
19.4 |
19.4 |
0.0 |
Philip Rivers |
SDG |
2009 |
345.7 |
21.6 |
21.1 |
22.1 |
-1.1 |
Tony Romo |
DAL |
2009 |
352.7 |
22.0 |
21.4 |
22.7 |
-1.3 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
PIT |
2009 |
342.6 |
22.8 |
22.2 |
23.6 |
-1.3 |
Matt Schaub |
HOU |
2009 |
359.2 |
22.5 |
21.1 |
23.8 |
-2.7 |
Peyton Manning |
IND |
2009 |
356.7 |
22.3 |
20.6 |
24.0 |
-3.4 |
Jason Campbell |
WAS |
2009 |
280.5 |
17.5 |
15.8 |
19.3 |
-3.5 |
Aaron Rodgers |
GNB |
2009 |
419.3 |
26.2 |
24.2 |
28.2 |
-3.9 |
Favre was just a hair behind Drew Brees for the highest home fantasy points per game average, but ranked 11th among the 15 quarterbacks in road production. If Favre's home/road split is going to continue, that's valuable fantasy knowledge. If Favre is incredible at home and average on the road, you can choose to only play Favre at home (and maybe against weak pass defenses) and then play a different quarterback in your lineup when the Vikings are on the road. Of course, sometimes splits just happen; in that case, Favre's home/road split last year will be meaningless when predicting his home/road split this year.
I looked at all quarterbacks since 1988 who finished in the top 15, averaged at least 23 FP/G at home, and averaged at least 7+ more FP/G at home than on the road. Before Favre (and Tom Brady) in 2009, there were 16 quarterbacks who met those criteria and played in at least 12 games for the same team in the next season. The results, below:
Quarterback |
Team |
Year |
FP/G |
HmFP/G |
RdFP/G |
Diff |
N+1 HmFP/G |
N+1 RdFP/G |
N+1 Diff |
Donovan McNabb |
PHI |
2008 |
19.7 |
23.3 |
16.2 |
7.1 |
23.7 |
18.9 |
4.8 |
Drew Brees |
NOR |
2008 |
24.3 |
29.4 |
19.3 |
10.1 |
27.3 |
23.4 |
3.9 |
Tony Romo |
DAL |
2008 |
21.4 |
26.2 |
15.8 |
10.4 |
21.4 |
22.7 |
-1.3 |
Marc Bulger |
STL |
2006 |
20.2 |
25.2 |
15.2 |
10.0 |
15.0 |
9.3 |
5.7 |
Brad Johnson |
TAM |
2002 |
19.5 |
23.3 |
15.1 |
8.2 |
18.9 |
16.3 |
2.6 |
Daunte Culpepper |
MIN |
2001 |
22.4 |
26.0 |
18.0 |
8.0 |
21.4 |
23.3 |
-1.8 |
Steve McNair |
TEN |
2001 |
21.3 |
25.1 |
17.0 |
8.0 |
20.5 |
18.4 |
2.1 |
Kurt Warner |
STL |
2000 |
22.0 |
28.6 |
16.5 |
12.1 |
21.0 |
27.0 |
-6.0 |
Steve McNair |
TEN |
1999 |
21.3 |
28.3 |
13.0 |
15.3 |
18.6 |
10.7 |
7.9 |
Steve Young |
SFO |
1997 |
18.2 |
23.5 |
12.0 |
11.5 |
33.1 |
26.8 |
6.2 |
Steve Young |
SFO |
1992 |
22.6 |
28.2 |
17.0 |
11.2 |
20.4 |
25.5 |
-5.1 |
Steve Young |
SFO |
1991 |
23.7 |
29.1 |
17.2 |
12.0 |
28.2 |
17.0 |
11.2 |
Chris Miller |
ATL |
1990 |
17.5 |
23.8 |
12.9 |
10.9 |
18.8 |
17.4 |
1.4 |
Warren Moon |
HOU |
1989 |
20.0 |
24.7 |
15.2 |
9.5 |
27.2 |
27.1 |
0.1 |
Boomer Esiason |
CIN |
1989 |
20.1 |
25.5 |
14.8 |
10.8 |
16.0 |
14.4 |
1.5 |
Warren Moon |
HOU |
1988 |
20.4 |
25.4 |
16.2 |
9.2 |
24.7 |
15.2 |
9.5 |
Average |
20.9 |
26.0 |
15.7 |
10.3 |
22.3 |
19.6 |
2.7 |
On average, the quarterbacks went from averaging 10.3 more FP/G at home to only averaging 2.7 FP/G at home. And while that might make you think starting Favre at home will continue to be a good thing, note that over the same time span, top-15 quarterbacks averaged 1.4 more FP/G at home than on the road. One could argue that being at home is more likely to benefit Favre than most quarterbacks since he plays in a dome, but no such "dome field advantage" worked out for Daunte Culpepper ('01-'02) or Kurt Warner ('00 to '01), Chris Miler ('90 to '91) or Warren Moon ('89 to '90). Favre might be better at home than on the road again in 2010, but I don't think we should expect him to be much better. And I certainly wouldn't base a fantasy strategy on that happening again. Favre was a fantasy beast at home in 2009, but sometimes, splits just happen.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to stuart@footballguys.com.