One of the most familiar discussions in terms of fantasy football leagues each season is on the positives and negatives for each of the draft slots. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions. In addition, there are some pratfalls to avoid in certain situations of a fantasy draft.
This second series of draft slot articles will take an in-depth look at some of the fourteen draft positions in a 14-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot. The 1st, 4th, 7th, 10th and 14th slots will be broken down trying to showcase the different challenges in certain slots. If you draft in the middle of these selections, read the articles before and after your own selection and you will get a very good idea how your draft will break down. In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.
After this series is complete, I will try to break down many other styles of leagues (16-team, 8-team, 10-team, FLEX options, PPR, etc. depending on time.)
This particular series is based on...
14-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE Scoring is as follows: 1 point every 20 passing yards 1 point every 10 rushing yards 4 points per passing touchdown 6 points per rushing / receiving touchdown 3 points per field goal / 1 point per extra point 2 points per interception, fumble recovery and safety 1 point per sack 6 points per defensive touchdown 10 points per shutout
This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator. The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.
If you would like to see a particular study this season, please send me an e-mail at smith@footballguys.com, and I will do my best to cover your scoring rules, starting lineup requirements, etc. before the end of training camp.
Let's get to it!
Drafting 14th overall (14-team re-draft)
There is both good and bad to drafting last in a large fantasy league. The great side of the coin is having back-to-back picks that can really influence the direction of the fantasy draft. The down sides however eclipse the small glimmer of positive. The problem with this draft pick is you'll be missing out on the top players at both the running back and receiver position so you'll definitely have to think outside the box. Unless you are very lucky with who is available, you will have to strongly consider going QB/WR or WR/WR to begin this draft. The good news is the decent running back options this season in the third through sixth rounds of your draft. The bad news is you'll be playing catchup through the rest of the draft.
Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft
As mentioned above, this is a challenging spot to draft from. In my mock draft that I will walk through shortly, I really didn't like any of the running back options available in this spot. If I had to pick two of the players available, it would be DeAngelo Williams and Shonn Green but they are further down the draft board. I can see starting a draft with those two though and doing very well this season. In a nutshell, take the best two players remaining on your draft board and you'll do fine.
Examples
1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues out there still feature running backs flying off the board in the first two rounds. In my mock draft I'll be breaking down, I began the draft with a QB and WR so I will look at a WR/WR combo here for something different.
Possible squad through six rounds
RB Knowshon Moreno - 3.14 RB Ronnie Brown - 4.01 RB Marion Barber - 6.01 WR Roddy White - 1.14 WR Reggie Wayne - 2.01 WR Michael Crabtree - 5.14
This isn't a bad way to build a team at all as long as good running back options are still available in the 3rd through 6th rounds. Nice strength at receiver and the running back stable may be better than most would anticipate in this era of RBBC.
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: If your league has more flexibility in the top include the best quarterbacks and receivers off the board, then a more conventional approach is in order. My draft here is my likely strategy in a fantasy league this year if I were to draft 14th overall. For the actual mock draft in this article, I went QB/WR to showcase a different strategy and it worked out pretty well but this would be the most likely scenario for my own team. I dropped down to the 8th pick just to showcase about ½ of what the roster would be.
Possible squad through eight rounds
QB Carson Palmer - 7.14 RB Michael Turner - 1.14 RB DeAngelo Williams - 2.01 RB Knowshon Moreno - 3.14 WR Steve Smith - 4.01 WR Michael Crabtree - 5.14 WR Mike Sims-Walker - 6.01 WR Robert Meachem - 8.01
Looking at both this squad and the one above, it really does illustrate there are multiple ways to build your team. In this scenario, Turner happened to fall to my pick. If that weren't the case, I'd be just as happy starting with Shonn Greene and Williams with my first two picks. This is why it is important to simply sit back, let the draft unfold and take the best two players on your draft board. If you do that, you'll build a strong team. Just a note here, I think Palmer may leapfrog back into the top-six at the quarterback position this year so look for him starting in round seven.
Positives of the draft slot
Back-to-back picks can really dictate the direction of the draft
Negatives of the draft slot
Likely missing out on the top talent at both RB and WR Long, long wait between picks can prove disastrous with poor decisions in prior rounds
Final Draft Table
Pick |
Pos |
Player Selected |
Team |
Selected By |
1.01 |
RB1 |
Chris Johnson |
Ten/9 |
Consensus |
1.02 |
RB2 |
Adrian Peterson |
Min/4 |
Consensus 2 |
1.03 |
RB3 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
Jac/9 |
Expert |
1.04 |
RB4 |
Ray Rice |
Bal/8 |
MFL 1 |
1.05 |
WR1 |
Andre Johnson |
Hou/7 |
FF Extreme |
1.06 |
QB1 |
Aaron Rodgers |
GB/10 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
1.07 |
RB5 |
Frank Gore |
SF/9 |
MAG 1 |
1.08 |
RB6 |
Steven Jackson |
StL/9 |
Mag average 2 |
1.09 |
WR2 |
Larry Fitzgerald |
Ari/6 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
1.10 |
WR3 |
Randy Moss |
NE/5 |
FFX 2 |
1.11 |
RB7 |
Michael Turner |
Atl/8 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
1.12 |
WR4 |
Miles Austin |
Dal/4 |
Expert 2 |
1.13 |
QB2 |
Drew Brees |
NO/10 |
Expert 3 |
1.14 |
QB3 |
Peyton Manning |
Ind/7 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
2.01 |
WR6 |
Reggie Wayne |
Ind/7 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
2.02 |
WR5 |
Roddy White |
Atl/8 |
Expert 3 |
2.03 |
QB4 |
Tony Romo |
Dal/4 |
Expert 2 |
2.04 |
QB5 |
Matt Schaub |
Hou/7 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
2.05 |
QB6 |
Tom Brady |
NE/5 |
FFX 2 |
2.06 |
RB8 |
Rashard Mendenhall |
Pit/5 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
2.07 |
WR7 |
Greg Jennings |
GB/10 |
Mag average 2 |
2.08 |
WR8 |
Marques Colston |
NO/10 |
MAG 1 |
2.09 |
RB9 |
Ryan Grant |
GB/10 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
2.10 |
WR9 |
Calvin Johnson |
Det/7 |
FF Extreme |
2.11 |
RB10 |
Ryan Mathews |
SD/10 |
MFL 1 |
2.12 |
WR10 |
DeSean Jackson |
Phi/8 |
Expert |
2.13 |
WR11 |
Chad Ochocinco |
Cin/6 |
Consensus 2 |
2.14 |
RB11 |
Chris Wells |
Ari/6 |
Consensus |
3.01 |
RB12 |
DeAngelo Williams |
Car/6 |
Consensus |
3.02 |
RB13 |
Pierre Thomas |
NO/10 |
Consensus 2 |
3.03 |
RB14 |
Jonathan Stewart |
Car/6 |
Expert |
3.04 |
RB15 |
Shonn Greene |
NYJ/7 |
MFL 1 |
3.05 |
RB16 |
Jamaal Charles |
KC/4 |
FF Extreme |
3.06 |
RB17 |
Cedric Benson |
Cin/6 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
3.07 |
WR12 |
Brandon Marshall |
Mia/5 |
MAG 1 |
3.08 |
WR13 |
Steve Smith |
Car/6 |
Mag average 2 |
3.09 |
RB18 |
LeSean McCoy |
Phi/8 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
3.10 |
RB19 |
Joseph Addai |
Ind/7 |
FFX 2 |
3.11 |
RB20 |
Jahvid Best |
Det/7 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
3.12 |
WR14 |
Sidney Rice |
Min/4 |
Expert 2 |
3.13 |
TE1 |
Antonio Gates |
SD/10 |
Expert 3 |
3.14 |
RB21 |
Knowshon Moreno |
Den/9 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
4.01 |
RB23 |
Ronnie Brown |
Mia/5 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
4.02 |
RB22 |
Felix Jones |
Dal/4 |
Expert 3 |
4.03 |
WR15 |
Hakeem Nicks |
NYG/8 |
Expert 2 |
4.04 |
TE2 |
Dallas Clark |
Ind/7 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
4.05 |
WR16 |
Hines Ward |
Pit/5 |
FFX 2 |
4.06 |
QB7 |
Kevin Kolb |
Phi/8 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
4.07 |
QB8 |
Jay Cutler |
Chi/8 |
Mag average 2 |
4.08 |
WR17 |
Percy Harvin |
Min/4 |
MAG 1 |
4.09 |
WR18 |
Dwayne Bowe |
KC/4 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
4.10 |
QB9 |
Philip Rivers |
SD/10 |
FF Extreme |
4.11 |
WR19 |
Steve Smith |
NYG/8 |
MFL 1 |
4.12 |
RB24 |
Brandon Jacobs |
NYG/8 |
Expert |
4.13 |
RB25 |
Reggie Bush |
NO/10 |
Consensus 2 |
4.14 |
TE3 |
Jermichael Finley |
GB/10 |
Consensus |
5.01 |
WR20 |
Anquan Boldin |
Bal/8 |
Consensus |
5.02 |
TE4 |
Vernon Davis |
SF/9 |
Consensus 2 |
5.03 |
TE5 |
Jason Witten |
Dal/4 |
Expert |
5.04 |
TE6 |
Tony Gonzalez |
Atl/8 |
MFL 1 |
5.05 |
RB26 |
Jerome Harrison |
Cle/8 |
FF Extreme |
5.06 |
RB27 |
Ricky Williams |
Mia/5 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
5.07 |
RB28 |
Ahmad Bradshaw |
NYG/8 |
MAG 1 |
5.08 |
RB29 |
Fred Jackson |
Buf/6 |
Mag average 2 |
5.09 |
RB30 |
Michael Bush |
Oak/10 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
5.10 |
RB31 |
Cadillac Williams |
TB/4 |
FFX 2 |
5.11 |
RB32 |
Justin Forsett |
Sea/5 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
5.12 |
RB33 |
Clinton Portis |
Was/9 |
Expert 2 |
5.13 |
RB34 |
Laurence Maroney |
NE/5 |
Expert 3 |
5.14 |
WR21 |
Michael Crabtree |
SF/9 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
6.01 |
RB39 |
Marion Barber |
Dal/4 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
6.02 |
RB35 |
C.J. Spiller |
Buf/6 |
Expert 3 |
6.03 |
RB36 |
Darren Sproles |
SD/10 |
Expert 2 |
6.04 |
WR22 |
Mike Wallace |
Pit/5 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
6.05 |
RB37 |
Correll Buckhalter |
Den/9 |
FFX 2 |
6.06 |
RB38 |
Tim Hightower |
Ari/6 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
6.07 |
RB40 |
Matt Forte |
Chi/8 |
Mag average 2 |
6.08 |
RB41 |
Chester Taylor |
Chi/8 |
MAG 1 |
6.09 |
WR23 |
Mike Sims-Walker |
Jac/9 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
6.10 |
RB42 |
LaDainian Tomlinson |
NYJ/7 |
FF Extreme |
6.11 |
WR24 |
Santana Moss |
Was/9 |
MFL 1 |
6.12 |
WR25 |
Jeremy Maclin |
Phi/8 |
Expert |
6.13 |
WR26 |
Terrell Owens |
Cin/6 |
Consensus 2 |
6.14 |
WR27 |
Wes Welker |
NE/5 |
Consensus |
7.01 |
QB10 |
Eli Manning |
NYG/8 |
Consensus |
7.02 |
QB11 |
Brett Favre |
Min/4 |
Consensus 2 |
7.03 |
QB12 |
Matt Ryan |
Atl/8 |
Expert |
7.04 |
QB13 |
Donovan McNabb |
Was/9 |
MFL 1 |
7.05 |
WR28 |
Lee Evans |
Buf/6 |
FF Extreme |
7.06 |
WR29 |
Malcom Floyd |
SD/10 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
7.07 |
QB14 |
Joe Flacco |
Bal/8 |
MAG 1 |
7.08 |
WR30 |
T.J. Houshmandzadeh |
Sea/5 |
Mag average 2 |
7.09 |
WR31 |
Steve Breaston |
Ari/6 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
7.10 |
WR32 |
Derrick Mason |
Bal/8 |
FFX 2 |
7.11 |
WR33 |
Jabar Gaffney |
Den/9 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
7.12 |
RB43 |
Leon Washington |
Sea/5 |
Expert 2 |
7.13 |
WR34 |
Devin Hester |
Chi/8 |
Expert 3 |
7.14 |
WR37 |
Donald Driver |
GB/10 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
8.01 |
WR35 |
Robert Meachem |
NO/10 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
8.02 |
WR36 |
Devin Thomas |
Was/9 |
Expert 3 |
8.03 |
TE7 |
Brent Celek |
Phi/8 |
Expert 2 |
8.04 |
WR38 |
Jerricho Cotchery |
NYJ/7 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
8.05 |
TE8 |
Zach Miller |
Oak/10 |
FFX 2 |
8.06 |
TE9 |
Kellen Winslow |
TB/4 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
8.07 |
TE10 |
Heath Miller |
Pit/5 |
Mag average 2 |
8.08 |
TE11 |
Visanthe Shiancoe |
Min/4 |
MAG 1 |
8.09 |
WR39 |
Johnny Knox |
Chi/8 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
8.10 |
RB44 |
Steve Slaton |
Hou/7 |
FF Extreme |
8.11 |
WR40 |
Braylon Edwards |
NYJ/7 |
MFL 1 |
8.12 |
WR41 |
Eddie Royal |
Den/9 |
Expert |
8.13 |
WR42 |
Kenny Britt |
Ten/9 |
Consensus 2 |
8.14 |
RB45 |
Arian Foster |
Hou/7 |
Consensus |
9.01 |
DEF1 |
New York Jets |
NYJ/7 |
Consensus |
9.02 |
RB46 |
Donald Brown |
Ind/7 |
Consensus 2 |
9.03 |
RB47 |
Montario Hardesty |
Cle/8 |
Expert |
9.04 |
RB48 |
Darren McFadden |
Oak/10 |
MFL 1 |
9.05 |
RB49 |
Willis McGahee |
Bal/8 |
FF Extreme |
9.06 |
RB50 |
Thomas Jones |
KC/4 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
9.07 |
QB15 |
Carson Palmer |
Cin/6 |
MAG 1 |
9.08 |
QB16 |
Matthew Stafford |
Det/7 |
Mag average 2 |
9.09 |
QB17 |
David Garrard |
Jac/9 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
9.10 |
QB18 |
Vince Young |
Ten/9 |
FFX 2 |
9.11 |
QB19 |
Alex Smith |
SF/9 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
9.12 |
RB51 |
Derrick Ward |
TB/4 |
Expert 2 |
9.13 |
QB20 |
Chad Henne |
Mia/5 |
Expert 3 |
9.14 |
TE12 |
Chris Cooley |
Was/9 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
10.01 |
WR47 |
Santonio Holmes |
NYJ/7 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
10.02 |
RB52 |
Larry Johnson |
Was/9 |
Expert 3 |
10.03 |
RB53 |
Kevin Faulk |
NE/5 |
Expert 2 |
10.04 |
WR43 |
Mike Williams |
TB/4 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
10.05 |
RB54 |
Toby Gerhart |
Min/4 |
FFX 2 |
10.06 |
WR44 |
Mario Manningham |
NYG/8 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
10.07 |
RB55 |
Fred Taylor |
NE/5 |
Mag average 2 |
10.08 |
RB56 |
Ben Tate |
Hou/7 |
MAG 1 |
10.09 |
QB21 |
Matt Cassel |
KC/4 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
10.10 |
WR45 |
Mohamed Massaquoi |
Cle/8 |
FF Extreme |
10.11 |
WR46 |
Donnie Avery |
StL/9 |
MFL 1 |
10.12 |
WR48 |
Dez Bryant |
Dal/4 |
Expert |
10.13 |
WR49 |
Nate Washington |
Ten/9 |
Consensus 2 |
10.14 |
WR50 |
Jacoby Jones |
Hou/7 |
Consensus |
11.01 |
WR51 |
Nate Burleson |
Det/7 |
Consensus |
11.02 |
TE13 |
Owen Daniels |
Hou/7 |
Consensus 2 |
11.03 |
QB22 |
Mark Sanchez |
NYJ/7 |
Expert |
11.04 |
TE14 |
John Carlson |
Sea/5 |
MFL 1 |
11.05 |
TE15 |
Jeremy Shockey |
NO/10 |
FF Extreme |
11.06 |
TE16 |
Dustin Keller |
NYJ/7 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
11.07 |
RB57 |
Jason Snelling |
Atl/8 |
MAG 1 |
11.08 |
WR52 |
Mike Thomas |
Jac/9 |
Mag average 2 |
11.09 |
WR53 |
Bernard Berrian |
Min/4 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
11.10 |
RB58 |
Mike Bell |
Phi/8 |
FFX 2 |
11.11 |
WR54 |
James Jones |
GB/10 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
11.12 |
WR55 |
Chris Chambers |
KC/4 |
Expert 2 |
11.13 |
WR56 |
Pierre Garcon |
Ind/7 |
Expert 3 |
11.14 |
WR61 |
Vincent Jackson |
SD/10 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
12.01 |
DEF3 |
Baltimore |
Bal/8 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
12.02 |
DEF2 |
Philadelphia |
Phi/8 |
Expert 3 |
12.03 |
DEF4 |
San Francisco |
SF/9 |
Expert 2 |
12.04 |
DEF5 |
Minnesota |
Min/4 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
12.05 |
WR57 |
Roy Williams |
Dal/4 |
FFX 2 |
12.06 |
WR58 |
Devin Aromashodu |
Chi/8 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
12.07 |
DEF6 |
Miami |
Mia/5 |
Mag average 2 |
12.08 |
WR59 |
Darrius Heyward-Bey |
Oak/10 |
MAG 1 |
12.09 |
WR60 |
Anthony Gonzalez |
Ind/7 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
12.10 |
QB23 |
Matt Hasselbeck |
Sea/5 |
FF Extreme |
12.11 |
WR62 |
Josh Cribbs |
Cle/8 |
MFL 1 |
12.12 |
WR63 |
Dexter McCluster |
KC/4 |
Expert |
12.13 |
WR64 |
Kevin Walter |
Hou/7 |
Consensus 2 |
12.14 |
WR65 |
Golden Tate |
Sea/5 |
Consensus |
13.01 |
TE17 |
Greg Olsen |
Chi/8 |
Consensus |
13.02 |
WR66 |
Laurent Robinson |
StL/9 |
Consensus 2 |
13.03 |
WR67 |
Josh Morgan |
SF/9 |
Expert |
13.04 |
WR68 |
Early Doucet |
Ari/6 |
MFL 1 |
13.05 |
WR69 |
Demaryius Thomas |
Den/9 |
FF Extreme |
13.06 |
DEF7 |
Chicago |
Chi/8 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
13.07 |
DEF8 |
Dallas |
Dal/4 |
MAG 1 |
13.08 |
WR70 |
Brian Robiskie |
Cle/8 |
Mag average 2 |
13.09 |
WR71 |
Brian Hartline |
Mia/5 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
13.10 |
WR72 |
Legedu Naanee |
SD/10 |
FFX 2 |
13.11 |
WR73 |
Austin Collie |
Ind/7 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
13.12 |
WR74 |
Chaz Schilens |
Oak/10 |
Expert 2 |
13.13 |
WR75 |
Devery Henderson |
NO/10 |
Expert 3 |
13.14 |
QB25 |
Matt Leinart |
Ari/6 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
14.01 |
RB61 |
Kevin Smith |
Det/7 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
14.02 |
RB59 |
Javon Ringer |
Ten/9 |
Expert 3 |
14.03 |
RB60 |
Bernard Scott |
Cin/6 |
Expert 2 |
14.04 |
RB62 |
Leonard Weaver |
Phi/8 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
14.05 |
RB63 |
Tashard Choice |
Dal/4 |
FFX 2 |
14.06 |
PK1 |
Mason Crosby |
GB/10 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
14.07 |
RB64 |
Jerious Norwood |
Atl/8 |
Mag average 2 |
14.08 |
RB65 |
Brandon Jackson |
GB/10 |
MAG 1 |
14.09 |
PK2 |
Nate Kaeding |
SD/10 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
14.10 |
QB24 |
Josh Freeman |
TB/4 |
FF Extreme |
14.11 |
QB26 |
Jason Campbell |
Oak/10 |
MFL 1 |
14.12 |
QB27 |
Kyle Orton |
Den/9 |
Expert |
14.13 |
QB28 |
Ben Roethlisberger |
Pit/5 |
Consensus 2 |
14.14 |
WR76 |
Michael Jenkins |
Atl/8 |
Consensus |
15.01 |
PK3 |
Stephen Gostkowski |
NE/5 |
Consensus |
15.02 |
PK4 |
David Akers |
Phi/8 |
Consensus 2 |
15.03 |
PK5 |
Garrett Hartley |
NO/10 |
Expert |
15.04 |
PK6 |
Ryan Longwell |
Min/4 |
MFL 1 |
15.05 |
DEF9 |
Green Bay |
GB/10 |
FF Extreme |
15.06 |
RB66 |
Lynell Hamilton |
NO/10 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
15.07 |
WR77 |
Brandon Tate |
NE/5 |
MAG 1 |
15.08 |
RB67 |
Sammy Morris |
NE/5 |
Mag average 2 |
15.09 |
WR78 |
Louis Murphy |
Oak/10 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
15.10 |
WR79 |
Brandon LaFell |
Car/6 |
FFX 2 |
15.11 |
RB68 |
Rashad Jennings |
Jac/9 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
15.12 |
RB69 |
Brian Westbrook |
FA |
Expert 2 |
15.13 |
WR80 |
Arrelious Benn |
TB/4 |
Expert 3 |
15.14 |
PK7 |
Nick Folk |
NYJ/7 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
16.01 |
RB75 |
Marshawn Lynch |
Buf/6 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
16.02 |
PK8 |
Lawrence Tynes |
NYG/8 |
Expert 3 |
16.03 |
PK9 |
David Buehler |
Dal/4 |
Expert 2 |
16.04 |
RB70 |
Joe McKnight |
NYJ/7 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
16.05 |
DEF10 |
New York Giants |
NYG/8 |
FFX 2 |
16.06 |
DEF11 |
Tennessee |
Ten/9 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
16.07 |
DEF12 |
Pittsburgh |
Pit/5 |
Mag average 2 |
16.08 |
DEF13 |
San Diego |
SD/10 |
MAG 1 |
16.09 |
RB71 |
Brian Leonard |
Cin/6 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
16.10 |
RB72 |
Julius Jones |
Sea/5 |
FF Extreme |
16.11 |
WR81 |
Lance Moore |
NO/10 |
MFL 1 |
16.12 |
RB73 |
Mewelde Moore |
Pit/5 |
Expert |
16.13 |
WR82 |
Harry Douglas |
Atl/8 |
Consensus 2 |
16.14 |
WR83 |
Jason Avant |
Phi/8 |
Consensus |
17.01 |
QB29 |
Matt Moore |
Car/6 |
Consensus |
17.02 |
DEF14 |
Arizona |
Ari/6 |
Consensus 2 |
17.03 |
DEF15 |
Carolina |
Car/6 |
Expert |
17.04 |
DEF16 |
New England |
NE/5 |
MFL 1 |
17.05 |
DEF17 |
Indianapolis |
Ind/7 |
FF Extreme |
17.06 |
TE18 |
Todd Heap |
Bal/8 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
17.07 |
TE19 |
Tony Scheffler |
Det/7 |
MAG 1 |
17.08 |
RB74 |
LeRon McClain |
Bal/8 |
Mag average 2 |
17.09 |
RB76 |
Jonathan Dwyer |
Pit/5 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
17.10 |
TE20 |
Anthony Fasano |
Mia/5 |
FFX 2 |
17.11 |
WR84 |
Steve Johnson |
Buf/6 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
17.12 |
TE21 |
Kevin Boss |
NYG/8 |
Expert 2 |
17.13 |
TE22 |
Bo Scaife |
Ten/9 |
Expert 3 |
17.14 |
DEF18 |
Cincinnati |
Cin/6 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
18.01 |
RB77 |
Glen Coffee |
SF/9 |
Draft Slots Study 14.14 |
18.02 |
DEF19 |
Tampa Bay |
TB/4 |
Expert 3 |
18.03 |
DEF20 |
Denver |
Den/9 |
Expert 2 |
18.04 |
PK10 |
Shayne Graham |
Bal/8 |
My Fantasy League 2 |
18.05 |
PK11 |
Robbie Gould |
Chi/8 |
FFX 2 |
18.06 |
TE23 |
Fred Davis |
Was/9 |
CBS Sportsline 2 |
18.07 |
PK12 |
Neil Rackers |
Hou/7 |
Mag average 2 |
18.08 |
PK13 |
Steve Hauschka |
Atl/8 |
MAG 1 |
18.09 |
DEF21 |
Houston |
Hou/7 |
CBS Sportsline 1 |
18.10 |
PK14 |
Dan Carpenter |
Mia/5 |
FF Extreme |
18.11 |
PK15 |
Matt Prater |
Den/9 |
MFL 1 |
18.12 |
PK16 |
Rob Bironas |
Ten/9 |
Expert |
18.13 |
PK17 |
Jeff Reed |
Pit/5 |
Consensus 2 |
18.14 |
PK18 |
Adam Vinatieri |
Ind/7 |
Consensus |
Breaking down the mock draft from the 1.14 draft position
Round 1.14: QB Peyton Manning
Starting a draft with a quarterback is risky. There is no way around that. You can always find good value at quarterback later in a draft while the running back position will dry up quicker. However, in his era that RBBC is running wild across the NFL, it isn't nearly the same decision as it was in the past. Landing a Manning to lock away a top-three quarterback lets you focus squarely on stockpiling running backs and receivers for the next several rounds. It is a nice position to be in really as long as the running back position does not dry up. The only way it will however is if the owners go RB-crazy in the first four rounds and if they do, you'll have the best QB / starting receiver core in the league.
Round 2.01: WR Reggie Wayne
I gotta be honest, in a real, legitimate fantasy draft, I am likely to pick up a DeAngelo Williams or Shonn Greene here but that is because both players are higher on my own personal draft board and I find it difficult not to pick them up here. In the spirit of this though, they are further down the board and I do not like the running backs available in the spot. Having the QB/WR combo from a team is both very risky and very attractive. In the weeks that Manning goes off with massive stats, Wayne is almost certainly going to be awesome as well. Not a bad way to begin a draft as Wayne is a monster, consistent fantasy star.
Round 3.14: RB Knowshon Moreno
Having ignored running back in the first two rounds, the thinking here is simple and direct. Take two running backs unless exceptional value at receiver is present. If a Calvin Johnson, Marques Colston or Brandon Marshall fell to this spot, I would pick one of them up. However, that did not happen in this draft and Moreno is capable of greatly exceeding this draft position.
Round 4.01: RB Ronnie Brown
There are certainly risks in regards to having Moreno and Brown as your starting RB pair. However the upside is also there for both players to make the leap into the top-twelve at the position and both are serviceable fantasy starters.
Round 5.14: WR Michael Crabtree
Being only a 2nd-year talent, there is a risk associated with selecting him as your WR2. However his talent and potential alone make him a steal as a 70th pick in the fantasy draft and he could emerge as a fantasy monster. He is a pretty easy decision here.
Round 6.01: RB Marion Barber
I love picking up a Marion Barber in the sixth round in 2010 and everybody should scoop him up if available. He is in the best shape he's been in and is almost the forgotten man in Dallas with Felix Jones getting the hype. Barber will get more touches than Jones and put together a very good fantasy season.
Round 7.14: WR Donald Driver
With three good running backs on board now, the draft philosophy for me shifts here. Now my thought process is to take two receivers unless exceptional running back talent is available. If C.J. Spiller or Chester Taylor is available here, I may take a fourth running back but with the running backs left to draft, it is an easy decision to take two receivers. Driver is getting long in the tooth but is in a dynamic passing offense and will put up good WR3 numbers.
Round 8.01: WR Robert Meachem
I look at Driver / Meachem as a combination WR3 for my fantasy team. I will likely play the options with a pair like this and together they may be an elite option as a third receiver. Meachem is capable of putting up big fantasy numbers.
Round 9.14: TE Chris Cooley / 10.01: WR Santonio Holmes
The only player I consider here other than the two I draft is Larry Johnson who may have one last surge in there. However I see Cooley as a potential top-five tight end with Donovan McNabb throwing him the ball and Santonio Holmes is an incredible WR5 once he returns from suspension. Both will play a big part in my fantasy squad this season.
At the halfway point of the draft, our team looks like this:
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning - 1.14
Running Backs
Knowshon Moreno - 3.14 Ronnie Brown - 4.01 Marion Barber - 6.01
Wide Receivers
Reggie Wayne - 2.01 Michael Crabtree - 5.14 Donald Driver - 7.14 Robert Meachem - 8.01 Santonio Holmes - 10.01
Tight Ends
Chris Cooley - 9.14
Place Kickers
none
Defenses
none
The biggest question through ten rounds is in regards to running back depth. The three running backs I do have are capable of putting up nice numbers but are also capable of losing time with injury. I'll have to address this situation in the 2nd half of the draft. My quarterback position is obviously a strength and also believe my tight end position is in great shape. However the strength of the team may be at the receiver position with five talented players vying for playing time.
Rounds 11-14: WR Vincent Jackson / DEF Ravens / QB Matt Leinart / RB Kevin Smith
Heading into round 11/12, I am sure I will be taking a running back here. However looking at the board, there is nothing I really must have on my team here while Vincent Jackson has massive upside and would give my team legitimate trade options if he signs with the Chargers. The Ravens defense is a nice luxury to pick up for a fantasy squad while Matt Leinart has upside and I'll only need him during Manning's bye week in all likelihood. I take a chance on Kevin Smith who has been a disappointment but still has time to turn his career around.
Rounds 15-18: K Nick Folk, RB Marshawn Lynch, DEF Bengals, RB Glen Coffee
Here is where you can flesh out the team. I get a great starting kicker, a good 2nd option for defense and a couple of young, talented running backs. Landing Marshawn Lynch could be a good move for my team or give me a player to release early on. The same goes with Glen Coffee with his boom and bust outlook for 2010. His potential is worth the selection.
Final Roster (Draft Slot 1.14)
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning - 1.14 Matt Leinart - 13.14
Running Backs
Knowshon Moreno - 3.14 Ronnie Brown - 4.01 Marion Barber - 6.01 Kevin Smith - 14.01 Marshawn Lynch - 16.01 Glen Coffee - 18.01
Wide Receivers
Reggie Wayne - 2.01 Michael Crabtree - 5.14 Donald Driver - 7.14 Robert Meachem - 8.01 Santonio Holmes - 10.01 Vincent Jackson - 11.14
Tight Ends
Chris Cooley - 9.14
Place Kickers
Nick Folk - 15.14
Defenses
Ravens Defense - 12.01 Bengals Defense - 17.14
Final thoughts on this roster
I really like the look of this team but wonder if perhaps I should have taken Donald Brown / Darren McFadden / Steve Slaton instead of my 8.01 pick, WR Robert Meachem. If I knew I could land Santonio Holmes AND Vincent Jackson later in the draft, I definitely would have taken the running back. If Jackson signs however, I will have strong trading options this season. My running back stable is capable of great things AND capable of crumbling around me. There is certainly potential there and I like the youth of the position. Quarterback and tight end I feel very good about although I still need to figure out my backup tight end in the first few weeks of the season. With good defenses and kicker on board as well, this team will have a real chance to compete for the title. If I did a re-do here, I would start the draft with QB Peyton Manning and RB Shonn Greene but I believe either way this team can compete.
Last thoughts on the 1.14 draft slot
Make no mistake about it, in a fourteen-team league, it is difficult to draft at the back of the round. The issue isn't the first two picks as you are blessed with two of the top fifteen players on your board. The issue is the long, long wait between picks. Make a wrong decision and you'll be in tough for the duration of the draft. However, stay calm, let the draft unfold and take the best players available, switching to draft needs when you need to and you'll be in good shape. I believe the ideal start is RB/RB but only if two players capable of being top-ten are there. If they are not, do not push the issue and simply start the draft WR/WR or QB/WR and adjust your thoughts from there.
Good luck and happy drafting!

