Here at Footballguys.com, we have Spotlights and Faceoffs. Those features are fairly comprehensive, but they are limited to viewpoints from either one or two writers. Well some players need a little more commentary. We have decided open up the dialog and asked our staff to leave their thoughts on these players and what is expected from them in 2010. Here, discussion centers around RB Shonn Greene.
Andy Hicks: I like Shonn Greene's prospects this season, I really do, but an ADP of 10 is asking a lot.
Yes, the Jets rushed the ball over 600 times last season; yes, they ran for more yards than they passed ... but the departure of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington has more than adequately been covered by the addition of LaDainian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight.
Number one on my list of concerns regarding Greene, however, is his inability to catch a ball. Four targets in the regular season for 0 catches isn't exactly impressive. If he is going to be a fantasy RB1, he needs to either get lots of receptions and yards from the receiving game, or get loads and loads of touchdowns. Without receptions or touchdowns, 300+ carries alone isn't going to be enough.
Tomlinson's presence makes me nervous about Greene's red zone opportunities. Tomlinson isn't number three on the all-time touchdown list because of his looks; he is a talented goal-line runner, even at this stage of his career, and has recorded double-digit touchdowns in every year of his career to date. Behind this offensive line, Tomlinson is certain to see a resurrection to his career, at least in the red zone. Add in Tomlinson's superiority as a receiver, and any chance Shonn Greene has of being a fantasy RB1 is remote unless he has about 370+ carries.
Until Greene proves he can catch a ball or becomes a 10+ TD man, I cannot draft him in the first round.
Maurile Tremblay: Thomas Jones was the sixth-best fantasy RB last year, and Greene is a lot better than Jones. He's a lot better than Tomlinson, too.
The Jets' offensive line is a fantastic run-blocking unit.
If he can stay healthy, Greene is a good bet to surpass what Jones did last year, in my opinion.
Sigmund Bloom: Ahh, there's the rub. Greene was outstanding in the playoffs, but where did his postseason end? Injured on the bench. Greene has said he won't change his marauding style, so the Jets are faced with a choice of preemptively limiting his workload by mixing in more of LaDainian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight, or they can ride Greene and risk wearing him out before the playoffs. Even though Tomlinson has dropped off in ability, even in short yardage, his reputation as a sure thing in the red zone may turn him into a McGahee-esque TD vulture, taking the edge off of Greene's upside. Taking Greene at his current second-round ADP is reasonable in non-PPR leagues, but in PPR leagues, you are passing on a cornerstone WR1 to take him, and his production will suffer in any weeks that the Jets struggle, unlike most of Greene's peers in the early round, who remain a big part of the game plan no matter the game script. Cedric Benson is basically the same guy, but available at least a round or two later. I don't mind taking young players a round or two early, but not as high as the second round - they have to finish among the elite options at their position to justify that, and I'm not 100% sold on Greene getting there... yet.
Maurile Tremblay: The points about Greene's lack of accomplishment as a receiver are well taken, but I can't help looking at the Jets' offensive line and their run-oriented offensive game plan and drool over Greene's fantasy prospects. As with Miles Austin and Jermichael Finley, I wish Greene's average draft position were lower - but for premium talent with premium opportunity, you have to pay a premium price. In all three cases, I think it's worth it.