Here at Footballguys.com, we have Spotlights and Faceoffs. Those features are fairly comprehensive, but they are limited to viewpoints from either one or two writers. Some players need a little more commentary. We have opened up the dialog and asked our staff to leave their thoughts on these players and what is expected from them in 2010. Here, discussion centers around RB Matt Forte.
Mark Wimer: Forte is overpriced at an ADP of RB21, though fantasy owners planning to corner the market on the Bears' rushing attack - a good idea, in my view - may have to pay that price in order to secure both Forte and Taylor on their rosters.
I like Chester Taylor as the number one back in Chicago a good deal more than I like Matt Forte. Both Taylor and Forte have the pass-catching skills that Mike Martz requires from his running backs, but Taylor is a much more powerful runner between the tackles. Taylor has averaged 4.3 yards per carry in his career compared to 3.8 for Forte, and will challenge Forte for the top job.
Taylor has played behind Jamal Lewis and then Adrian Peterson for much of his career, but to view him as a career backup is wrong. In 2006, before Adrian Peterson arrived, Taylor rushed the ball over 300 times (for more than 1,200 yards) as the Vikings' starter, and also contributed 42 receptions for 288 yards. Even in a complementary role after Adrian Peterson took over as the starter, Taylor has averaged about 100 rushes (and over 140 touches) per season - a greater workload than that of a true backup.
His contract with the Bears isn't that of a backup, either. He will make about $7 million this season, indicating that he is expected to compete for the top job, and I think he is the better fit for the Mike Martz offense. Taylor can be a three-down back, and was considered the gem of this year's free agent class. In short, he is one of an increasingly small group of running backs who have the potential to be a featured back in an NFL offense.
Every time Chester Taylor has been asked to carry the load for his previous two NFL clubs, he's done quite well - better, in my opinion, than anything we've seen from Matt Forte during his brief NFL tenure. I believe that Taylor will win the top job in Chicago with little trouble, and render Forte a bit role-player this year.
Jeff Haseley: With Mike Martz the offensive coordinator and Jay Cutler the quarterback, the Bears will pass much more often than they run. In the cases of both Martz and Cutler, their previous teams averaged more than 20 passing TDs per season, but fewer than 10 rushing TDs per season.
If the Bears use a committee approach at RB, Forte and Taylor may end up splitting about 9 TDs between them - not exactly huge numbers for either one. I'm on the fence regarding which RB will get the nod as the primary RB, but I'm not sure I like either one this year. I don't see either finishing in the Top 20.
Mark Wimer: The pass-heavy nature of Cutler's and Martz's previous teams is part of what has me excited about Taylor's opportunity in Chicago. Taylor has caught 40+ receptions on 50+ targets in each of the last two seasons.
Taylor has the ability to be an effective receiver out of the backfield, Martz should give him that opportunity. From 1999 through 2002, as the lead back for the Rams in the Martz era, Marshall Faulk had a MINIMUM of 80 receptions each season. He also averaged six touchdown receptions per season during that period.
While there may not be more than 5 or 6 rushing TDs for Taylor in Chicago this year, if he becomes the primary back, he could easily another 5 or so receiving TDs to his total, giving him double digits overall.
After examining the situation, I believe that Taylor has a very high ceiling in Chicago this year.
David Dodds: Matt Forte is one of the worst performers I have ever seen at or near the goal line. Because of that, and because Martz went out and got his guy (Chester Taylor) this offseason, I think Forte will be a huge bust at his draft position. I think both Forte and Taylor will get carries and catches, but neither is likely to have a full-time role (unless the other gets injured). And because nearly every league will have one owner convinced that Forte is the starter, I don't see myself landing him on any roster this year.
Will Grant: Taylor was brought into Chicago as much for his blocking ability as for his pass-catching skills. The Bears gave up 35 sacks last season and the new offense that Mike Martz is installing won't help matters much. The Bears did not upgrade their offensive line this offseason, and Taylor will certainly help in the pass protection schemes.
The Bears averaged just over 4.0 yards per rush as a team last season, but Forte was easily the lowest with his pedestrian 3.6. However, Forte also had 57 receptions for 471 yards. Taylor averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last year behind Minnesota's OL, his lowest since his rookie season. It's hard to see how Taylor is going to suddenly come in and replace Forte, resulting in super high production.
That said, the Bears are officially a running-back-by-committee now, and I expect you'll see a lot of schemes with Forte and Taylor on the field at the same time. For Taylor, expect about 125-135 carries and another 30-35 receptions on the season. That means Forte is not much more than a fantasy backup this season.
Andrew Garda: Forte doesn't excite me this year. In a PPR league he may be useful, but overall my hopes are low. The question owners need to ask themselves is whether the 2008 or the 2009 version Forte was the real guy.
After watching him last season - even accounting for poor Oline play - I believe the 2009 guy is closer to the real thing. While I agree with Will that Forte was brought in for has blocking as much as for his running, I disagree that Taylor is fading. I believe the Vikings ran Peterson so much not because Taylor wasn't worth carries but that Peterson (fumbles and all) was just a much better back.
I don't believe the same can be said for Matt Forte.
Mark Wimer: Taylor has definitely had the frustration of being behind elite backs like Jamal Lewis in his 2,000+ yard season and then Adrian Peterson - but that may pay off for Taylor owners this year as he has MUCH less wear-and-tear on his body than most 31 year old backs in the league. This is Taylor's chance to shine, and I think he has much more upside potential than Forte - especially in the pass-happy Martz attack.
Sigmund Bloom: The only upside in a selection of Forte is the possibility of a Chester Taylor injury. The Bears did not go out and pay a 30-year-old RB seven million dollars this year to back up Forte. There will be a full-blown RBBC in a pass-first offense, which equals headaches for fantasy owners. Taylor is the Bears back to target this year; let someone else take Forte too early on the fading promise of his rookie year.
Jeff Pasquino: I cannot paint a scenario where Forte is a Top 25 running back this year. Two years ago he was the featured back behind a good offensive line and he put up Top 5 numbers in both standard in PPR formats. Last year he returned to Earth and not only looked like a different back, but his blocking did nothing to help his cause. This year the line is still not very good and every discussion about the Chicago offense has included the pass and Mike Martz, not the ground game. Chester Taylor is now in the mix, which will severely eat into his PPR value as well, so I'm going to let someone else deal with this headache waiting to happen.
Andy Hicks: I agree with Will more than anyone else so far, but clearly think Forte is the number one back here. Taylor is 31 years old (or will be by the start of the season) and you can throw however many dollar signs out there you like, but guys at this age aren't exactly renowned for tearing up the league. I think Taylor gives the Bears something they lacked last season: a decent back up. There really was little choice for the Bears - either get a rookie and hope for the best, or get the best free agent that suited their needs. With other teams lining up, they had to pay for Taylor.
Taylor has seen his yards per carry drop from over 5.0 two years ago to only 3.6 last year. His carries have also declined in successive years in Minnesota to under 100. Compare the offensive lines Taylor has been used to in Baltimore and Minnesota to what he'll be dealing with in Chicago.
Forte played injured for a lot of last season behind a suspect o-line. After his magnificent rookie season, I will give him the benefit of the doubt. Forte has demonstrated the ability to be well above average as a receiver, and although the dominance of the passing game gives me severe doubts that Forte can be anything other than a low-end fantasy RB2, he still is the clear starter in this offense. Taylor will revert to his usual career backup status (except for 2006) and take less than 33% of the workload.
Mark Wimer: I'm not sure I'd call Forte's rookie season "magnificent." A 3.9-yards-per-carry average is below par at the NFL level, and 12 total touchdowns isn't scintillating.
Jonathan Stewart posted 11 TDs and a 5.1-yards-per-carry average during 2009 while splitting carries with DeAngelo Williams. Stewart's 5.1 yards per carry over 221 carries was magnificent. Forte's 316/1238/8 rushing for 3.9 yards per carry is pedestrian at this level of competition, in my opinion.
Andy Hicks: Yards per carry is not the only indicator of a great season, but while we're on the topic, Curtis Martin and Terry Allen recorded 3.6 yards per carry in 1996, Shaun Alexander had 3.98 yards per carry in 2002, LaDainian Tomlinson had 3.94 yards per carry in 2004. All good enough to finish as Top 5 fantasy running backs.
Personally I don't think Forte is a elite running back like the players I just named, but when you are fed the ball 316 times, catch 63 more, get 12 touchdowns and over 1700 total yards, that's pretty special. Good enough to rank 4th as a fantasy RB in 2008, which was pretty magnificent for those who selected him. Opportunity is more important than talent sometimes.