Here at Footballguys.com, we have Spotlights and Faceoffs. Those features are fairly comprehensive, but they are limited to viewpoints from either one or two writers. Some players need a little more commentary. We have opened up the dialog and asked our staff to leave their thoughts on these players and what is expected from them in 2010. Here, discussion centers around RB Jamaal Charles.
Mark Wimer: In my opinion, the addition of Thomas Jones to the Chiefs makes this backfield a likely RBBC, with a fairly even split of carries between Jones and Jamaal Charles. I have Thomas Jones ranked significantly higher than most of the other Footballguys, and Charles significantly lower as a result. We'll see how the team employs the two during the pre-season. For now, though, I'm skeptical that Charles will land in the top 20 fantasy RBs due to the RBBC - he is vastly overpriced at an average draft position of 13th running back off the board.
His offseason shoulder surgery should not be dismissed, either.
Maurile Tremblay: Mark and I are pretty far apart on this one.
Thomas Jones got a lot of yards last year, but he didn't look very good to me. His stats were, in my opinion, a product of the Jets' dominating offensive line. Jones hardly ever broke a tackle; he regularly went down on first contact. And he lacks the quickness he had earlier in his career. He will find the experience of running behind the Chiefs' OL rather unpleasant; and like Larry Johnson did last year, Jones will have far less success than Jamaal Charles.
Unlike Jones, Charles is an elite talent. The comparisons to Chris Johnson are not crazy. Talent will win out in the end, and I expect Charles to be the featured back all year (or as long as he stays healthy), with Jones the clear backup.
Mark Wimer: I have heard a lot about Charles' elite talent this offseason, but it is hard to flash that talent if your body is breaking down under the load of being a NFL back. Charles' shoulder required surgery after carrying the load for only half an NFL season (230 total touches on the ball, with 190 carries).
I think the Chiefs remain unconvinced that Charles can be the featured back for them, and that's why they brought in Jones. They know they can't expect 250-300 touches out of Charles during 2010 - thus Jones will get a hefty share of the load during 2010.
It's simply a matter of preserving Charles and getting the most they can out of him without breaking him down prematurely.
Jeff Haseley: Maurile, I agree with you that Thomas Jones' production was more a product of the Jets offense and their outstanding running game. He had very average first halves and yet he always seemed to punch in a TD in the second half to go along with 80-100 yards rushing. An 85-yard rushing day with one to two TDs is not a bad day at the office, but it's not difficult to rush for 80 yards when you have 20-25 carries. The Chiefs aren't going to give Jones even 12 carries a game. Jones had success with the Jets, but with another year of wear and tear on his body, plus a different offense to run with, I see him reverting back to a good, but not great RB - and that's if he was starting. As of now, Charles is the team's starter and I expect him to keep that role. I think he is looking at a minimum of 250 carries for 1,100 - 1,300 yards with 8-10 TDs.
Andrew Garda: Jamal Charles' fantasy season went from fair to fantastic at the end of the season where he feasted on a 20th-ranked Chargers run D, a 30th-ranked Bills D, a 28th-ranked Cleveland D, and a 26th-ranked Broncos D.
You can't write off the 259 yard total against the Broncos completely, but it's not like he did it against the Jets or Ravens. And they pretty much shut him down yardage-wise in week 13. Meanwhile, the Bengals had largely begun to phone it in by week 16.
I'm just not sold on him, especially when much of his praise is coming from a portion of the schedule that was fairly weak.
He has a good run schedule this year, but has Thomas Jones there to steal carries and the same mediocre-to-bad offensive line, which has been a problem for years.
I think he could have a decent season, but RB13 is a little rich for me.
David Dodds: I am somewhere between the two extremes here. Jamaal Charles has fresher legs and looks like a lot better player than an aging Thomas Jones to me. In my opinion, though, Charles does not look like he ever could be a 300-carry back. They used him a lot in the last half of the season, but I remain skeptical he could withstand that level of punishment over the course of a full season. Playing in the weak AFC West will give Charles enough looks to have fantasy success, though. I have him just over 200 carries and 45 receptions. His ADP seems about right to me especially in PPR leagues.
Andy Hicks: I agree with Andrew here. Charles got hot against awful run defenses. If the Chiefs hadn't signed Thomas Jones, I'd have more confidence in Charles being given a chance to become elite, but this has "committee" written all over it.
Fewer than 200 carries has seen Charles vault almost to RB1 status in fantasy leagues; and maybe I'm getting cautious in my old age, but late season hot streaks usually over-inflate a player's true value. The dissing of Thomas Jones has me surprised as well. He achieved career highs in carries, yards and TDs, but this is all the work of the offensive line? Thomas has almost 10,000 career rushing yards and 5 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. I'm not enamored with RBs at age 30+, but Jones is undervalued this year, while Charles is overvalued.
Mark Wimer: I agree completely that the bulk of Charles' amazing yardage total last year came against woefully bad rush defenses - at a time of the year when most of the teams that bad were just "playing out the string," eliminated from playoff contention.
In short, I think he's unproven as a full-time starter and his late-season 2009 success is suspect due to facing inferior competition.
Andy makes a good point about how well Jones ran the ball last year. I, too, think he's being under-rated by fantasy players during the preseason, so far.
Sigmund Bloom: I have to think the RB13 ADP is based on some people who are late catching up and missed the news of Thomas Jones signing, Dexter McCluster being drafted, and offseason shoulder surgery for Charles - or maybe they are just blinded by his second half numbers from '09. Before all of those, he was a borderline first-round pick in dynasty start-ups, but his ADP is settling into the third round. There might be someone in your league who reaches for him in the second round, and chances are there will be someone in your league who is more bullish on Charles than they should be after his high profile second half of the 2009 campaign.
Jeff Pasquino: There are too many reasons for Charles to fall below RB13 value for me here. I cannot see him being a borderline RB1 with the addition of Thomas Jones and then factoring in Dexter McCluster. Even excluding the rookie WR/RB factor, the NFL is such a copycat league, I see RBBC for the Chiefs as the likely outcome. Charles is their best version of Reggie Bush while Jones will be the Pierre Thomas equivalent. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it severely limits Charles' upside and does not justify a RB13 valuation.
All last year KC was saying that Charles is not an every down RB, and here the tea leaves all spell out RBBC. That will help Charles last for 16 games and be productive all season for the Chiefs but not "RB13" productive.
I'd let someone else overpay for him this year.

