Over the past few years, there have been two very popular articles written by our very own Chase Stuart that look at an interesting approach to building a fantasy team with late value picks. Based upon the theory of using both Strength of Schedule ("SOS") and taking two players as a combination to build one very good player, he has discussed both Team Defense by Committee ("TDBC") and Quarterback by Committee ("QBBC") as a general fantasy league strategy. In general I think that this is a wise move because very early on in fantasy drafts there are a ton of RB and WR prospects to go after to build a great team. While there are a few studs at QB and also a few choice defenses, I do not see a huge need in leagues to pursue either too hard in the beginning stages of a fantasy draft.

So with this in mind, I started to think about what else can be done with the committee approach. Tight end? Perhaps. Running back? Maybe. Wide receiver? Hmmm, that's really intriguing, but we should probably look at say the third starting option - "Fantasy WR3". What if you could grab two wide receivers later in the draft that could combine to perform on a WR3 - or even WR2 - level, based solely on their current projections and their schedule? Now we're talking. This really got my attention, so I went after this. Let's take a look at how I went about this and then we can digest and discuss the results.

Eligible Receivers

So how to begin? Defenses and quarterbacks are relatively easy to "committee" together. There's usually only one QB and certainly only one team defense per NFL club, so the approach is pretty simple as far as picking out which players / teams to try and pair up. When it comes to wide receivers, the line is not quite so easy to draw, but I needed some basis to pick which players it made sense to try and combine for a decent committee. I decided that I would use the following criteria to decide which players to start with for evaluating:

Criteria #1 - WR37 and Beyond

This seems pretty simple. If we want to have a duo that puts up WR3 numbers, that means we want WR36 or better production - else we would just draft WR36 or higher and forget the whole idea. So here is the list of players with which I started, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP):

Table 1: Wide Receivers WR37-WR60 Based on ADP

Keep in mind here that the ADP for wide receivers has really been moving a great deal this season, so some of these numbers may not be exactly what you expected – but the results will serve our purpose well. I am just looking for wide receivers outside of the first 36 that are likely to be drafted and to pair them up for a nice committee approach.

So now we have 24 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 276 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Now, before I go over the method of how to pair them up and the results, we need one more rule:

Criteria #2 - No more than one WR from Round 7 and one from Round 8.

This could get tricky here, but understand the overall goal. The point of WR3BC is to "free up" the first 6 rounds of your fantasy draft to pursue 2-3 running backs, 2-3 wide receivers and possibly even a stud QB or TE. Depending on your personal preference you may even choose to draft a WR3 and have the "WR3BC" be your WR4. Flexibility is the name of the game here. We all want value in our drafts, and having the ability to grab two WRs in Rounds 7 and 8 to act as our WR3BC gives us that ability.

Based on Table 1, we will be taking a close look at the pairs and the expected ADPs for any wideouts that may be Round 7 or Round 8 selections. That probably means that Pierre Garcon and Vincent Jackson are not going to be selected for our committee based on several recent drafts that had one or both going before Round 7. The good news here is that most of the wide receivers have ADP numbers above 100, which means that they should all be available in both Round 7 and Round 8.

So what do we do now to figure out some WR pairs?

Criteria #3 - Use Footballguys' WR Strength of Schedule

This sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Just take the WR Strength of Schedule to figure out when certain players are more likely to score well. What I did is similar to what the Projections Dominator and Draft Dominator do for you - take the projected fantasy points and slice them up over 16 weeks based on the strength of schedule. I call this result the "distributed fantasy points" for each receiver.

After I had all 24 wide receivers with distributed fantasy points on a weekly basis, I just compared all of the possible WR pairs to find the best duos for WR3BC. So here we are - time for some results.

Table 2: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pairs

As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for WR3BC. There is a huge amount (118 sets) of pairs that are worth more than Mohamed Massaquoi (WR37) by his lonesome, who is projected to come in with 95.3 points. Let's also take a look at how often some of these guys show up on the table:

Table 3: Wide Receiver #3 Committee Pair Appearances by Player

As we can see from Table 3, four players dominate the list – Massaquoi, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Bryant and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. These guys also all appear at or near the top of Table 1, so this is not too much of a surprise.

Putting It All Together

Now that we have over 110 possible pairs that are better than Mohamed Massaquoi, what exactly does that mean? Should Massaquoi be the basis of our comparison? Of course not. Remember our goal - find a pair of wide receivers that can combine for WR3 (or better) fantasy production. To figure that out we need a better metric, so here are the projections for WR13 through WR36 sorted by projected fantasy points:

Table 4: Projected Fantasy Points for WRs 13-36

Based on Table 4, we see that WRs beyond the Top 20 are really jumbled all over the place. Some are going to early in drafts (Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin) based on current projections, while others are available at what appears to be a discount. Filtering through all of this "noise", we see some players that catch our eye. Michael Crabtree (WR22, 115.8 fantasy points projected) is the last of the "upper tier" of wideouts that are projected to top 115 fantasy points in 2010. Looking at our possible pairs, we have eight duos that beat 115 fantasy points, while the top pair lines up well against Anquan Boldin (WR19). This tells us that choosing the correct pair can give us the result we wanted - WR3 production (and borderline WR2) on the cheap.

Considering all of the results, the recipe looks very clear - get Santonio Holmes. Nabbing him in Round 7 or Round 8 allows you to choose from several other WRs that will post numbers comparable to a WR3. The best duo, in fact, will post numbers similar to a moderate value WR2. With Mohamed Massaquoi and TJ Houshmandzadeh both in questionable offenses and Vincent Jackson threatening to hold out for a long time, all three of these players are not recommended as top committee choices. Antonio Bryant’s value also plummets with Terrell Owens now in Cincinnati. That is why I am recommending Johnny Knox and Santonio Holmes as the WR3BC for 2010. Take Holmes in Round 7 and follow up quickly with Knox in Round 8 to pair together for your WR3 committee.

For thoroughness Table 2 should be your guide on Fantasy Draft Day if you attempt to use WR3BC. One option is to take Holmes in Round 7 and then grab the next WR on the list that you like, with a strong preference to Knox or Avery.

Table 5: Top 26 WR3BC Options for 2010

Here is a final summary of the combined schedules for Johnny Knox and Santonio Holmes, and when the committee approach suggests starting each one:

Table 6: Suggested WR3BC Schedule Plan

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.