Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.
So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2009 season, I decided to take the #12 TE for the year (Jermichael Finley, 152.6 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking TE12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th TE should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league.
So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a tight end has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of TE performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th TE average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a TE Quality Start.
Using the TE Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:
QB Start Type |
Fantasy Points |
Bad Start |
0 to 7.1 |
Quality Start |
7.2 to 11.9 |
Excellent Start |
12.0+ |
Table 1: TE Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - PPR Scoring
Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 36 TEs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:
Tight End |
Type Of Start |
|||
Excellent |
Quality |
Bad |
Total |
|
Dallas Clark - IND |
11 |
4 |
1 |
16 |
Vernon Davis - SFO |
9 |
5 |
2 |
16 |
Antonio Gates - SDC |
10 |
5 |
1 |
16 |
Brent Celek - PHI |
9 |
6 |
1 |
16 |
Jason Witten - DAL |
7 |
8 |
1 |
16 |
Tony Gonzalez - ATL |
10 |
3 |
3 |
16 |
Kellen Winslow - TBB |
7 |
4 |
5 |
16 |
Heath Miller - PIT |
7 |
2 |
7 |
16 |
Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN |
6 |
4 |
6 |
16 |
Greg Olsen - CHI |
6 |
2 |
8 |
16 |
Zach Miller - OAK |
6 |
4 |
4 |
14 |
Jermichael Finley - GBP |
6 |
3 |
3 |
12 |
John Carlson - SEA |
2 |
8 |
5 |
15 |
Todd Heap - BAL |
3 |
7 |
6 |
16 |
Fred Davis - WAS |
5 |
2 |
8 |
15 |
Kevin Boss - NYG |
3 |
5 |
6 |
14 |
Jeremy Shockey - NOS |
4 |
6 |
3 |
13 |
Owen Daniels - HOU |
5 |
1 |
2 |
8 |
Dustin Keller - NYJ |
3 |
2 |
10 |
15 |
Ben Watson - NEP |
2 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
Marcedes Lewis - JAC |
2 |
3 |
9 |
14 |
Bo Scaife - TEN |
1 |
6 |
5 |
12 |
Tony Scheffler - DEN |
1 |
3 |
10 |
14 |
Brandon Pettigrew - DET |
2 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
Anthony Fasano - MIA |
3 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
Dave Thomas - NOS |
2 |
2 |
8 |
12 |
Will Heller - DET |
2 |
1 |
11 |
14 |
Chris Cooley - WAS |
3 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
Randy McMichael - STL |
0 |
3 |
13 |
16 |
Dante Rosario - CAR |
2 |
2 |
7 |
11 |
Donald Lee - GBP |
1 |
0 |
13 |
14 |
Daniel Fells - STL |
1 |
3 |
7 |
11 |
John Paul Foschi - CIN |
1 |
3 |
9 |
13 |
Joel Dreessen - HOU |
1 |
1 |
9 |
11 |
Jeff King - CAR |
0 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
Daniel Graham - DEN |
0 |
1 |
13 |
14 |
Totals |
143 |
119 |
228 |
|
Table 2: 2009 TE Start Types Sorted By Top 36 TEs - PPR Scoring
That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are about as many Excellent Starts (143) as Quality Starts (119), so that gives me a good idea that the ranges are in line. Yes there are a large number of Bad Starts (228) but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The net results look like a good trend, which means that our distribution is close to normal and that our baseline point range does make sense.
Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting tight end in this system. We want a TE that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL tight end. Here is the formula:
NFL TE Value = Excellent Starts - Bad Starts
We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average TE performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.
On with the results, sorted by value:
Tight End |
Type Of Start |
Net Value |
|||
Excellent |
Quality |
Bad |
Total |
||
Dallas Clark - IND |
11 |
4 |
1 |
16 |
10 |
Antonio Gates - SDC |
10 |
5 |
1 |
16 |
9 |
Brent Celek - PHI |
9 |
6 |
1 |
16 |
8 |
Vernon Davis - SFO |
9 |
5 |
2 |
16 |
7 |
Tony Gonzalez - ATL |
10 |
3 |
3 |
16 |
7 |
Jason Witten - DAL |
7 |
8 |
1 |
16 |
6 |
Jermichael Finley - GBP |
6 |
3 |
3 |
12 |
3 |
Owen Daniels - HOU |
5 |
1 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
Kellen Winslow - TBB |
7 |
4 |
5 |
16 |
2 |
Zach Miller - OAK |
6 |
4 |
4 |
14 |
2 |
Jeremy Shockey - NOS |
4 |
6 |
3 |
13 |
1 |
Chris Cooley - WAS |
3 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
Heath Miller - PIT |
7 |
2 |
7 |
16 |
0 |
Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN |
6 |
4 |
6 |
16 |
0 |
Greg Olsen - CHI |
6 |
2 |
8 |
16 |
-2 |
John Carlson - SEA |
2 |
8 |
5 |
15 |
-3 |
Todd Heap - BAL |
3 |
7 |
6 |
16 |
-3 |
Fred Davis - WAS |
5 |
2 |
8 |
15 |
-3 |
Kevin Boss - NYG |
3 |
5 |
6 |
14 |
-3 |
Brandon Pettigrew - DET |
2 |
2 |
5 |
9 |
-3 |
Bo Scaife - TEN |
1 |
6 |
5 |
12 |
-4 |
Ben Watson - NEP |
2 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
-5 |
Anthony Fasano - MIA |
3 |
1 |
8 |
12 |
-5 |
Dante Rosario - CAR |
2 |
2 |
7 |
11 |
-5 |
Dave Thomas - NOS |
2 |
2 |
8 |
12 |
-6 |
Daniel Fells - STL |
1 |
3 |
7 |
11 |
-6 |
Dustin Keller - NYJ |
3 |
2 |
10 |
15 |
-7 |
Marcedes Lewis - JAC |
2 |
3 |
9 |
14 |
-7 |
John Paul Foschi - CIN |
1 |
3 |
9 |
13 |
-8 |
Joel Dreessen - HOU |
1 |
1 |
9 |
11 |
-8 |
Tony Scheffler - DEN |
1 |
3 |
10 |
14 |
-9 |
Will Heller - DET |
2 |
1 |
11 |
14 |
-9 |
Jeff King - CAR |
0 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
-10 |
Donald Lee - GBP |
1 |
0 |
13 |
14 |
-12 |
Randy McMichael - STL |
0 |
3 |
13 |
16 |
-13 |
Daniel Graham - DEN |
0 |
1 |
13 |
14 |
-13 |
Table 3: 2009 TE Start Types Sorted By Value - PPR Scoring
This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, the Top 6 tight ends blew the competition away. Both Jermichael Finley and Owen Daniels should not be overlooked due to their fewer games, especially with Daniels on a Top 5 pace before his injury. On the low side, Tony Scheffler should greatly benefit from his move to Detroit.
Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top TEs on the 2010 ADP list.
Tight End |
Type Of Start |
Net Value |
ADP |
|||
Excellent |
Quality |
Bad |
Total |
|||
Dallas Clark - IND |
11 |
4 |
1 |
16 |
10 |
36 |
Antonio Gates - SDC |
10 |
5 |
1 |
16 |
9 |
46 |
Brent Celek - PHI |
9 |
6 |
1 |
16 |
8 |
60 |
Vernon Davis - SFO |
9 |
5 |
2 |
16 |
7 |
49 |
Tony Gonzalez - ATL |
10 |
3 |
3 |
16 |
7 |
64 |
Jason Witten - DAL |
7 |
8 |
1 |
16 |
6 |
53 |
Jermichael Finley - GBP |
6 |
3 |
3 |
12 |
3 |
54 |
Owen Daniels - HOU |
5 |
1 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
80 |
Kellen Winslow - TBB |
7 |
4 |
5 |
16 |
2 |
86 |
Zach Miller - OAK |
6 |
4 |
4 |
14 |
2 |
97 |
Chris Cooley - WAS |
3 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
109 |
Jeremy Shockey - NOS |
4 |
6 |
3 |
13 |
1 |
176 |
Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN |
6 |
4 |
6 |
16 |
0 |
118 |
Heath Miller - PIT |
7 |
2 |
7 |
16 |
0 |
125 |
Greg Olsen - CHI |
6 |
2 |
8 |
16 |
-2 |
134 |
John Carlson - SEA |
2 |
8 |
5 |
15 |
-3 |
126 |
Fred Davis - WAS |
5 |
2 |
8 |
15 |
-3 |
191 |
Kevin Boss - NYG |
3 |
5 |
6 |
14 |
-3 |
197 |
Dustin Keller - NYJ |
3 |
2 |
10 |
15 |
-7 |
138 |
Tony Scheffler - DEN |
1 |
3 |
10 |
14 |
-9 |
194 |
Table 4: 2010 Top Drafted TEs Sorted By 2009 Value - PPR Scoring
Note that rookie Jermaine Gresham is missing from the Top 200 ADP list for the simple reason that he has not played an NFL contest yet. Judging form last season, it would appear that Brent Celek is the best value amongst the Top 10 TEs going off the draft board, while Owen Daniels could prove to be a huge steal if he can match last year's pace for a full season. That brings up an important point, which is that this is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2010 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.