Welcome back for the 8th and final edition of this year's preseason EOTG. Last but not least I will be covering the NFC West division.
For reference, when I mention where guys finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the standard Footballguys scoring system which is nearly identical to the North American Fantasy Football Addicts (NAFFA) league I have run for the past 15 years. Feel free to check it out. Defensive scoring in this league is the standard stuff but keep in mind that rankings will vary a bit from league to league. From time to time I will reference the "rookie corner rule". Those of you who are familiar with the EOTG know what that is. For those who are new, the rookie corner rule is basically the fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie at corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses thus these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Most often these guys are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon) and their numbers will begin to drop sharply after their rookie seasons. When I mention tackle numbers, I do not lump assists and solo tackles together. Unless I make a reference one way or the other, I am talking about solo tackles. When I talk about a total number of takeaways for a player, I am counting interceptions, fumble recoveries and fumbles forced since all of these score very similarly in most scoring systems.
Arizona Cardinals
Defensive Linemen
At the end of last season there were only four 3-4 linemen who ranked in the top 25. The Cardinals had two of them in Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell. On the strength of 42 tackles, 6.5 sacks and a couple of takeaways (in 15 games), Dockett was one of two who slipped into the top ten. Quality production from a 3-4 end is rare but consistent year to year production from one of these guys is exceptionally hard to come by. In fact Dockett and the 49ers Justin Smith are the only 3-4 linemen to make the top 25 in each of the past three seasons. Dockett is the prototypical 3-4 end. He has the size and strength to hold his ground against multiple blockers, yet is quick and athletic enough to be a pass rush threat. Since Ken Whisenhunt brought the scheme to Arizona in 2007, Dockett has averaged 41-12-7. There is little chance that he will hit double digit sacks or make the top five, but his quality production in '09 was not a fluke. Dockett can be counted on as a decent lower tier DL1 or an excellent DL2... Unlike Dockett who was left over from the previous coaching regime and just happened to fit, Campbell was the Cardinals second round selection in 2008 and was hand picked for the job. As a rookie he averaged fewer than 20 snaps a game, totaling 24 solo tackles with no sacks. When Antonio Smith moved on last offseason it opened the door for Campbell. His second season produced 37-11-6.5 with a forced fumble and 5 passes defended. The unusually high PD total comes from the fact that Campbell is 6'7" and has a huge wingspan. Thus he should consistently be good for a few batted balls. Like Dockett, Campbell is an athletic big man with a motor that never stops. He is tough to root out at the point of attack and has good skills as a pass rusher. I have seen other prognosticators suggest that 2010 will be a breakout season for Campbell. Let me point out that 37-11-6.5 IS a breakout season for a 3-4 end. As mentioned earlier, quality numbers from this position are rare and difficult to repeat. As such there is most definitely the potential for Campbell to go backwards in 2010. That said, I expect him to take his place along with Dockett, Smith and Shaun Ellis of the Jets, as the exception to the rule. His numbers could be a little better this year but expecting more than 40-45 tackles and 6-7 sacks would be unrealistic... Last year's starter at nose tackle was Bryan Robinson, who is no longer with the team. Gabe Watson split time with Robinson and is penciled in as the starter entering camp but he will have a hard time holding off first round pick Dan Williams. Not surprisingly for a Whisenhunt pick, Williams reminds many scouts of Steelers NT Casey Hampton. He's a 330 pound road grader who is both stout and powerful. He is an anchor in the middle against the run and can push the pocket, but Williams is not a strong interior pass rusher. In the end he may be a two down player and like Hampton, is unlikely to make much splash in the box scores... 2007 second round pick Alan Branch and '08 4th rounder Kenny Iwebema give the Cardinals quality depth at end. Branch can play the nose as well and could see time on the inside in passing situation.
Fantasy Outlook
DE Darnell Dockett - Dependable lower tier DL1 or excellent DL2 DE Calais Campbell - Quality DL2 with both risk and upside DE/NT Alan Branch- No value DE Kenny Iwebema - No value NT Dan Williams - No value NT Gabe Watson - No value
Linebackers
Anyone who believes that Karlos Dansby will not be missed in Arizona, is in for a rude awakening. He was a leader, an enforcer and a very valuable playmaker for a defense that thrives on the big play. The Cardinals are counting on veteran Gerald Hayes to pick up some of the slack in the short term and second round pick Daryl Washington to be the long term answer. Hayes is coming off a horrible statistical season in 2009. He was only inactive for two games but battled back and ankle injuries most of the year, and was never fully healthy. Hayes had what was described as a "procedure" on his back earlier in the offseason and is not expected to participate much at the beginning of camp. He claims that it is not a big deal and that he will be fine. When healthy Hayes has the potential to be a decent option for us. He first became a starter in 2006 and went 80-14-1 with 5 takeaways and 6 passes defended in fourteen games. When the club first went the way of the 3-4 in 2007, Hayes remained a pretty big factor. He paired with Dansby in the nickel packages and worked at MLB when the club lined up in a 4-3. That season Hayes finished a respectable 81-16-4 with a pick. His role decreased a little in 2008 as the Cardinals transitioned toward being a full time 3-4 team. Hayes started to loose snaps on passing downs and became basically a two down strong side ILB over the past two seasons. Coverage is not a strength for him but looking at their options, it would not be a surprise to see him return to an every down role. The upside is limited but under the circumstances, Hayes could be a solid 80+ tackle guy with a handful of big plays this season. He's worth a late round flier as depth... In Washington the coaching staff sees a younger/cheaper version of Dansby. Washington's scouting report describes him as an explosive athlete with a knack for the big play and the range to make plays all over the field. He is dangerous as a blitzer and plays with intensity on every down. Washington also excels in coverage both man and zone. The most telling tale for me is always productivity. Show me the numbers. Washington has done that also. As a senior at TCU he put up 105 combined tackles with 2 sacks and 3 interceptions (one returned for a score). This is a complicated scheme for a rookie to pick up and word out of Arizona is that Washington will "compete" with journeyman Paris Lenon for the starting job. Unless he struggles, this will be a very short competition. The only real question here is how long will it take for Washington to get up to speed? If all goes well he could emerge from camp as the every down WILB and the centerpiece of the defense. Once he settles in we can expect very good (Dansby like) production from Washington. Owners in redraft leagues should target him as an LB3 with upside. Dynasty owners should give Washington strong consideration as the #2 rookie LB behind Rolando McClain... While he was with Pittsburgh, Whisenhunt watched that organization develop some outstanding young outside linebackers. Last year year the club used second and sixth round picks on Cody Brown and Will Davis respectively. This year they invested a fourth in O'Brien Schofield. Brown was set back by a broken wrist that caused him to miss his rookie season so the Cardinals basically have two rookies and a second year player in the development process. Meanwhile they have a pair of former Steelers holding down the fort. Clark Haggans and Joey Porter are both 33 years old and nearing the end, but the Cardinals are depending on them for another season or two. Haggans has never quite made it to elite status as a pass rusher. His career best was 9 sacks in 2005 and he's never put up more than 6.5 in any other season. The 57-17-6 Haggans recorded last season represents the best overall fantasy production of his career. In other words, unless you can use him as depth in a big play based scoring system, Haggans doesn't bring much to the table for us... Porter racked up a career best 16.5 sacks as a Dolphin in 2008 and followed that with 9 sacks last season. Unfortunately he only totaled 70 tackles in the last two years combined. He can still get after the passer and those tackle numbers should be a little better since he will play virtually every down in Arizona, but like Haggans, unless your scoring system suits his strength, Porter doesn't give us much. One thing that really hurts the fantasy value of all Arizona defenders, is that the scorers here are very stingy with assists. Only the Rams and Vikings were credited with fewer total assists than the Cardinals 154 last season. The league average is well over 200.
Fantasy Outlook
ILB Gerald Hayes - Depth with a little upside, LB3 at the very best ILB Daryl Washington - Quality LB3 with LB2 potential ILB Paris Lenon - No value ILB Monty Beisel - No value OLB Clark Haggans - No value OLB Joey Porter - Only has value in big play based scoring systems OLB Cody Brown - No value OLB O'Brien Schofield - No value
Defensive Backs
In SS Adrian Wilson and corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie the Cardinals have two of the leagues better defensive backs at their respective positions. Having traded Bryant McFadden back to Pittsburgh and lost Antrel Rolle to the Giants via free agency, they had holes to fill at the other two positions over the offseason. Wilson is a ten year veteran who has spent his entire career with the Cardinals. At one time he was a fantasy stud, but when the 3-4 came to town in 2007, his responsibilities changed and so did his production. At 6'3" and 226 pounds Wilson is a DB trapped in a linebacker's body. He is both an intimidator and a playmaker. Earlier in his career Wilson was used almost as an extra linebacker at times. He was an in the box enforcer who would blitz often, and was rarely asked to drop into deep coverage. As a result Wilson broke the 70 tackles mark in four consecutive season starting in 2003, finishing among the top five in three of those seasons. His fantasy production piqued in '05 when he totaled 93-16-8 (yes that's 8 sacks for a DB) with 5 takeaways, 9 passes defended and a #1 ranking. While he is obviously capable of outstanding production, Wilson's role in the 3-4 doesn't provide as much opportunity as he once had. He now lines up further from the ball, has an extra linebacker in front of him and is asked to concentrate more on coverage. The coaching staff still finds ways to use his big play ability but Wilson has barely reached the 60 solo tackle mark in each of the past two seasons. At 61-13-2 with 6 takeaways and 13 passes defended, Wilson made it back into the top 15 at the safety position in 2009. He's still a quality play as a solid DB2 or excellent DB3 but his glory days seem long gone... To replace Rolle the Cardinals acquired Kerry Rhodes from the Jets. No one has spelled out clearly why Rhodes fell out of grace with the Rex Ryan regime but it is speculated that he was seen as too soft and didn't fit the physical mentality of the new Jets. Whatever the reason, this was a good pickup for the Cardinals. In his first two seasons with the Jets Rhodes lined up at SS and posted very good numbers. In 2006 he was the #2 fantasy DB on the strength of 76-23-5 with 8 takeaways and 14 passes defended. He was shifted to the centerfield role at FS in '07 and continued to be a playmaker with 16 takeaways over the last three seasons, but his tackle numbers have never been the same. In Wilson and Rhodes the Cardinals have a pair of very good big play safeties. Rhodes is getting very little love in IDP drafts this summer. He's not likely to have a big comeback year in this situation but we should consider a couple of points. Uncertainties at the inside linebacker positions could allow for a few extra tackles for the safeties, and Rolle had 78 solo stops from the FS position in '08. Consider Rhodes a bit of a sleeper. He should be worthy as depth in most leagues with DB3 upside... With 6 interceptions and 9 total takeaways in his second pro season, Rodgers-Cromartie has quickly established himself as one of the leagues premier young corners. At a glance his low tackle production of 49-2 would seem to be very limiting in terms of fantasy value. That is true to an extent but his 25 passes defended go a long way toward subsidizing his overall value. He had 19 PD and 4 picks as a rookie so neither of those statistics are a fluke. Rodgers-Cromartie was the #7 corner last years and should have a similar impact in 2010... McFadden didn't exactly light up the scoreboard last season. He's a good cover corner but it's not as if the Cardinals have lost a star. That said, They have no proven options to replace him. Last year's 4th round pick Greg Toler will get the first shot at the job. He saw limited action in 10 games last season, finishing with 10 tackles, a pick and a pair of PD. He may not officially be a rookie, but if Toler lands the job he will likely be treated as one by opposing offenses. We don't need to worry about drafting him but we should note that McFadden had 64 tackles at the position last season. Toler's main competition will come from fourth year man Michael Adams, who saw a lot of action last year as the nickel corner... One player to keep an eye on during camp and preseason is safety Rashad Johnson. He was the team's third round pick last year and is a ball hawking FS who could push Rhodes for the job.
Fantasy Outlook
SS Adrian Wilson - Solid DB2 or excellent DB3 FS Kerry Rhodes - Depth with DB3 upside S Rashad Johnson - Sleeper with big play ability S Matt Ware - No value CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - Decent CB1 or quality CB2 CB Greg Toler - Sleeper in corner required leagues CB Michael Adams - No value CB Trumaine McBride - No value
St. Louis Rams
Defensive Linemen
The Rams rebuilding process has a long way to go and the club elected to use most of their early draft picks on the offense. Their 29th rated defense didn't go completely unaddressed though. Overall St. Louis used six of their eleven picks on this side of the ball, including 5th, 6th and 7th round picks on defensive end prospects Hall Davis, Eugene Sims and George Selvie respectively. All of these guys are developmental prospects who will contribute little if at all immediately. That means third year pro Chris Long and veteran James Hall will be seeing a lot of playing time this year. Long was the second overall pick in 2008 but thus far has not lived up to expectations. He spent most of his first two seasons working in a rotation with Hall and long time Rams standout Leonard Little. In that part time role Long recorded 65 tackles, 9 sacks and three takeaways over his two seasons, so he has not been a complete bust by any stretch. Long is a talented player with huge potential. Two years of experience and an every down role on a defense that will be on the field a lot, might be just the ingredients for a breakout season in 2010. One more reason for optimism is that Long recorded five sacks over the final nine contests last year. He's far from a sure thing but with the general lack of quality production from the DE position across the league, Long should be high on our sleeper lists... Hall is a 33 year old veteran who has spent the last three season with the Rams. He's a versatile player and has spent a good deal of time at tackle during his time in St. Louis. In 29 games over the past two seasons Hall has recorded 75 solo tackles and 10.5 sacks. 39 of those tackles and 4.5 sacks coming in thirteen games last season. With Little gone and the free agent additions of Chris Hovan and Fred Robbins at tackle, it's unclear if Hall will continue to get work inside. With veteran Victor Adeyanju and second year man C.J. Ah You as the only real depth at the position, it seems possible if not likely that Hall will be a three down end. If that is the case he could be a 40+ tackle guy with 6-7 sacks. There is some chance that Little could end up back with the team before the season opens. If that happens he would not be considered for a starting job and would see time only as a spot pass rusher... Third year man Clifton Ryan and veteran free agent Fred Robbins are the projected starters at tackle. Ryan started fifteen games last season and finished at 35-7-1. At 310 pounds he's a pretty good road block against the run but doesn't have much to offer as a pass rusher. Robbins comes over from the Giants where he worked in a very talented multiplayer rotation over the past several years. His career best in the tackle column is 32 but Robbins can get after the passer a little. He has 4.5 or more sacks in four of the past five seasons. If he plays on a full time basis Robbins could be a decent late round addition for DT required leagues... Chris Hovan and Dorell Scott will likely figure into the mix at tackle. Scott made a few uneventful starts as a rookie last season. Hovan is a former first round pick who could help on running downs.
Fantasy Outlook
DE Chris Long - Priority sleeper at the thin position DE James Hall - Probable depth with a little upside DE Victor Adeyanju - No value DE C.J. Ah You - No value DE Hall Davis - No value DE Eugene Sims - No value DE George Selvie - No value DT Clifton Ryan - Depth in tackle required leagues DT Fred Robbins - Depth with DT2 upside in tackle required leagues DT Chris Hovan - No value DT Dorell Scott - No value
Linebackers
James Laurinaitis could very well be a top 5 fantasy linebacker this season. This is not so much because he is an elite player, but rather because he is a very good player in an elite situation. As a rookie Laurinaitis recorded double digit fantasy points in 12 games and finished among the top ten. Only Patrick Willis, Jon Beason and Kirk Morrison recorded more than his 107 solo stops. Had Laurinaitis added a couple more big plays to his 3 takeaways and 2 sacks, or if the scorekeepers in St. Louis were less stingy with assists, he would have made the top five. Rams defenders were credited with only 119 assists last season. That is over 100 below the league average and is something that definitely hurts all of their players when it comes to IDP value. Laurinaitis was credited with a mere 13 assists in '09 and we can't count on that changing much. What we can count on is that the Rams will struggle. A rookie QB with young receivers means a lot of extra snaps for a defense that is not exactly loaded with talent. Take a look at the Rams defensive roster and try to pick out who will be the team's second leading tackler? Maybe Bobby Carpenter, possibly James Butler or Kevin Payne at SS, but there is no one who jumps out as a player who will compete for tackles. The veteran additions at the DT positions will be a plus and should help Laurinaitis stay clean to make more plays. All things considered he could end this season with 120+ solo tackles and with a few big plays could very well land in the top three. Laurinaitis should be one of the first five linebackers off the board in most scoring systems... With so many holes to fill the Rams simply couldn't address all their needs with long term solutions. In Laurinaitis they have their MLB and leader for the next decade but the rest of the LB positions got only Band-Aids. Carpenter was a first round pick of the Cowboys in 2006 but was never able to earn a starting job with the team. The closest he came was serving as their nickel and dime linebacker last season. The Rams are hoping Carpenter's struggles were simply a case of his not fitting in a 3-4 scheme. He will be plugged in at WLB and being a good in coverage, should pair with Laurinaitis in the nickel packages. Carpenter was a very productive player at Ohio State so maybe he will be the next Jonathan Vilma and prove to be a quality player once he gets a shot in a 4-3. He is certainly going to have a ton of opportunity to prove himself. If he is any count at all Carpenter should be an 80+ tackle guy in this situation. He's a young player with plenty of years ahead of him, so if the Rams guessed right he could be a long term solution after all. Consider Carpenter a strong sleeper with the situation alone providing LB3 potential... Na'il Diggs is a veteran journeyman with plenty of starting experience. He provides a good short term fix at SLB but is nothing special and has no box score value... Larry Grant, Chris Chamberlain and Mr. Irrelevant '08 David Vobora were all 7th round picks two years ago. Barring injury they will all contribute on special teams and continue their development.
Fantasy Outlook
MLB James Laurinaitis - Tackling machine who should make the top 5 WLB Bobby Carpenter - Strong sleeper, draft for depth with LB3 upside SLB Na'il Diggs - No value MLB David Vobora - No value OLB Larry Grant - No value OLB Chris Chamberlain - No value
Defensive Backs
A glance at last year's overall numbers will have some fantasy owners dismissing the Rams secondary. Don't be one of those owners. It may be true that neither O.J. Atogwe nor James Butler reached 60 tackles in '09 but the story goes much deeper than that. Butler battled injuries over the first half of the season and was not really healthy until after the team's week nine bye. Over the final eight games he was 46-6 with 2 takeaways and averaged 11.5 fantasy points a week. Only four defensive backs had more tackles over the second half of the season. His history with the Giants doesn't show much box score production. However, Butler was stuck in a three man safety rotation during his time as a starter in New York, so we can't really dwell on those numbers. At 6'3" and 215 he is a big physical guy who supports the run well but is also good in coverage. Butler has three picks in each of the past two seasons and 10 total takeaways in about two and a half seasons as a starter. He could feel some heat from Kevin Payne during camp but the job should be Butler's come week one. He is flying under the radar right now and could be a sneaky 90 tackle safety that you can snag in the very late rounds... Atogwe is known more as a big play guy than a physical presence, but in this situation he could put up pretty solid tackle numbers regardless of his strengths. Atogwe missed the final four games last season but still put up 58 solos. Average those games in and he would exceed 75 tackles and probably add a couple of marks to his 7 takeaways as well. Atogwe was on pace for a fourth consecutive season with at least 66 solo tackles. Over those four seasons he has averaged 72 tackles and 10 takeaways. In '07 and '08 Atogwe was a top 5 safety and had he played a full schedule he may well have been there last season as well. Barring injury he should make the top ten if not top five again... Opponents had no trouble running on the Rams last season but even the corners had useful numbers. Ronald Bartell may not be a guy who comes to mind when someone mentions elite corners, but he's been a pretty dependable one for the Rams over the past three seasons. In three seasons as a starter he's averaged a respectable 60 tackles and 5 takeaways. Not the kind of numbers we need from a starter, yet certainly worthy of consideration as depth in corner required leagues. There will be an open competition for the starting corner job opposite Bartell. '09 third round pick Bradley Fletcher was playing well before blowing out his knee in week seven. He has been cleared for camp and will battle rookie third round selection Jerome Murphy and former Giant Kevin Dockery for playing time. The rookie corner rule could apply.
Fantasy Outlook
SS James Butler - Solid DB3 at worst with 90+ tackle potential FS Oshiomongo Atogwe - Quality DB2 with DB1 potential S Kevin Payne - Sleeper, watch the training camp notes S Craig Dahl - No value CB Ronald Bartell - Solid CB3 CB Bradley Fletcher - Sleeper in corner required leagues CB Kevin Dockery - Deep corner required sleeper CB Jerome Murphy - Sleeper, rookie corner rule could apply
San Francisco 49ers
Defensive Linemen
Since going to the 3-4 a few years back the 49ers have never really put much emphasis on building a great front line. In 2008 they spent a first round pick on Kentwan Balmer who has been a complete bust with all of 11 tackles in two seasons. Other than that they have gotten by with a collection of mid to late round picks and a sprinkling of quality free agents. Aubrayo Franklin came over from Baltimore in 2007 and has anchored the line from the nose tackle position over the past couple of years. He's not a flashy player or a guy who makes a lot of noise in the box scores but has done his job well. Ray McDonald was the team's third round pick in '07 and started a few games in '08 but has never really stepped up. He will compete for playing time at DE with Balmer and veteran Isaac Sopoaga who doubles as the backup NT. The coaching staff really hopes that the light will come on for Balmer in his third season, but chances are McDonald will be the guy come September. None of these guys give us much reason for optimism but San Francisco did hit a home run when the signed Justin Smith in 2008. Smith was the first round pick of the Bengals back in 2001 and spent six years there as a 4-3 end. When he signed with the 49ers there were mixed opinions as to how successful he could be. Smith has quieted all doubters. He has never been more than above average as a pass rusher but has always be a beast versus the run. Smith is a Mike Singletary kind of guy who is all heart and effort on every snap and has been that way his entire career. The proof is in the numbers. In nine season as a pro Smith has averaged 45 solo tackles and has never totaled fewer than 41. His career best is only 8.5 sacks but he's put up fewer than 5.5 just once and has 13 in two seasons with San Francisco. There may not be much upside with Smith but neither is there much risk. He is going to give us 40+ tackles every seasons with 6-7 sacks. Probably not the guy you want as your DL1 but certainly a very dependable DL2.
Fantasy Outlook
DE Justin Smith - Quality DL2 or lowed tier DL1 in a pinch DE Ray McDonald - No value DE/NT Isaac Sopoaga - No value DE Kentwan Balmer - Deep sleeper but don't waste a pick NT Aubrayo Franklin - No value NT Ricky Jean Francois - No value
Linebackers
With all world Patrick Willis and solid veteran Takeo Spikes the 49ers are in great shape at ILB. Willis has been nothing short of stellar from the first time he stepped into an NFL huddle. His 137 solo tackles as a rookie may be an NFL record (Ray Lewis's 156 were in his second season) and he's average 120 over his three pro seasons. Willis is more than just a tackling machine. He's a playmaker as well with 12 takeaways, 9.5 sacks and 23 passes defended in his young career. Willis has been the #1 fantasy LB twice and #2 once in his three seasons. He's the Ray Lewis of this generation and is hands down the #1 overall defensive player in the fantasy game. As the sidekick to Willis, Spikes has no shot at being a fantasy force. He is however, a savvy veteran and an excellent compliment to Willis on the field. Spikes can be a big play threat as well. He was banged up much of last season and didn't have a lot of impact, but in 2008 he recorded 6 takeaways, a sacks and 6 passes defended. In most cases he is on the fringe of being roster worthy but can be used as a bye week fill in if you watch the matchups closely. Consider Spikes as depth in larger leagues but jump on him if Willis is injured. Spikes will be 34 in December so the 49ers are preparing for this to possibly be his last season with the team. Last year's fifth round pick Scott McKillop and this year's third round selection Navaro Bowman will compete for the third spot in the pecking order and likely the honor of replacing Spikes. McKillop had some chances last year when the veteran was banged up but didn't exactly impress. That's probably why Bowman was drafted. It's not one of the premier competitions to watch but one of these guys could have some value in the fairly near future. If you are a dynasty owner in a deep league, it might be worth while to tuck Bowman away on a taxi squad... San Francisco entered last season with a lot of questions at the all important OLB positions. While no one blew up big for them, they did get improved production and have to feel a lot better entering 2010. Manny Lawson, Parys Haralson and Ahmad Brooks combined for 17.5 sacks in '09. Brooks really got the attention of the coaching staff when he put up 5 sacks over the final five games. Having been a bust in Cincinnati, it seems he may have found his calling as a pass rusher for the 49ers. In fact, all three of these guys played their best football later in the season as 15 of their sacks were recorded over the final ten games. Lawson will be one starter with Haralson and Brooks likely competing for the other during camp. None of these guys are obvious breakout players but if pass rushing linebackers have good value in your league, Lawson and Brooks would make strong late round sleepers.
Fantasy Outlook
ILB Patrick Willis - The #1 defensive player in fantasy football ILB Takeo Spikes - Depth in larger leagues at best ILB Scott McKillop - No value ILB Navaro Bowman - Dynasty sleeper with limited upside OLB Manny Lawson - Sleeper/depth in big play leagues OLB Parys Haralson - Sleeper with limited upside in big play leagues OLB Ahmad Brooks - Sleeper in big play leagues OLB Marques Harris - No value
Defensive Backs
For a 3-4 defense San Francisco is loaded with quality IDP options. The secondary could add as many as three players to the list. FS Dashon Goldson came from nowhere in 2009. The '07 4th round pick saw action in nineteen games over his first two seasons, recording an insignificant 31 tackles. The FS position in San Francisco had traditionally been a nonfactor in fantasy circles so when Goldson won the job in training camp no one took much notice. When he posted 3 tackles in each of his first two starts it looked like typical 49ers free safety numbers. Then Goldson caught fire. Over the next eleven games he put up 5 or more tackles and double digit fantasy points ten times. Goldson finished the season as the team's second leading tackler at 77 solos, adding 8 takeaways and 3 sacks along the way for an impressive top 5 finish among safeties. When a player blows up from nowhere like Goldson did there is always the concern that he was a one year wonder or was the product of a temporary situation. That doesn't seem to be the case with Goldson who was as impressive on the field as he was in the box scores. The club seem to be satisfied that they have found their long term answer at the position. With San Francisco looking like a team on the rise, I have to think that Goldson may have a few less tackle opportunities going foreword, but there is no reason to expect a major drop in production. Goldson has not been getting much respect in the drafts I have seen, so he could be a real bargain. Consider him a decent DB1 or an excellent DB2 prospect... When San Francisco drafted Taylor Mays in the second round, most people's initial thought was that he would step right in at SS. At 6'3" and 230 pounds Mays has linebacker size to go with corner back speed. He hits like a truck and has almost uncanny potential but is not exactly well polished. He could eventually remind 49ers fans of Ronnie Lott but will need to work on his cover skills and instincts before he can even beat out Michael Lewis for the starting job. That could happen at some point this season but it doesn't seem likely that it happen right away. One thing that could speed up the rookie's learning curve is an injury to Lewis. The veteran played well last year when healthy but missed one full game and parts of several others with nagging injuries. He still managed a respectable 73-11-1 with 4 takeaways. In fact Lewis has been very productive for us over his career. Throw out the 2006 season when he fell out of grace with the Eagles coaching staff and Lewis has put up at least 73 tackle in five consecutive seasons. He's been a top 15 safety in four of those five seasons with three top tens. Between the injury issues and the presence of Mays, Lewis comes with a lot of risk. On the other hand, if he can hang onto the job all season he would be a quality DB3 with the potential to be a lower level DB2... None of the 49ers corners put up more than 49 tackles or 3 interceptions last season but consider the fact that Nate Clements was at 30-5 with a pick and 7 PD through seven games when he was lost to a shoulder injury. His replacement was Tarell Brown who went 34-6 with 2 picks and 8 PD over the rest of the season. 64-11 with 3 picks and 15 passes defended would certainly get a corner on a roster in leagues that require them. When Clements came to San Francisco in 2007 he went 77-15-1 with 7 takeaways and 14 PD. He was the fantasy game's #2 corner that year. The point being that there is a history of decent production from the corner position in San Francisco and a history of production by Clements when he's healthy. The problem here is that there is no guarantee Clements will get his starting gig back. He'll be 31 in December and has struggled with injuries over the past two seasons. Then there is Brown who played well last season and the free agent addition of William James who has been a starter in the league in previous seasons. I have to think that if Clements is healthy he will be back in the lineup. If that happens he will make a good last round flier or week one pickup in corner required leagues... Shawntae Spencer seems to be locked in as the other starter. He put up good numbers early in his career but that production has faded. Spencer hasn't posted useful numbers since 2005 and there is no reason to expect a change.
Fantasy Outlook
SS Michael Lewis - Solid DB3 with a little upside and a lot of risk FS Dashon Goldson - Quality DB2 with lower tier DB1 upside SS Taylor Mays - Dynasty alert and a big upside late round sleeper in redraft leagues FS Reggie Smith - No value CB Shawntae Spencer - No value CB Tarell Brown - Depth in corner required leagues if he wins the starting job CB Nate Clements - Injury risk, Decent CB2 or quality CB depth if healthy and starting CB William James - No value
Seattle Seahawks
Defensive Linemen
The Seahawks lost Patrick Kerney to retirement after last season, which made their subsequent trade of Darryl Tapp to the Eagles a real head scratcher. The initial reaction being that 2008 first round pick Lawrence Jackson must be ready to step up. That thought was then crushed when the coaching staff dropped Jackson down the depth chart and promoted 318 pound former tackle Red Bryant to take his place. Huh? Bryant was the club's 4th round pick in '08 and has contributed all of 12 tackles and 4 assists in two seasons. He's not even a USC guy so where this move came from is anyone's guess. Bryant was not particularly productive at Texas A&M and the scouts were not very impressed with him coming out of college. He's battled injuries since his junior year and to date has been a complete nonfactor in Seattle. It was probably a lack of warm bodies that initially had Bryant working with the ends back in early May. After a few weeks coach Carroll had this to say "We never thought of him as a defensive end when we came in here, but he's worked very hard in the offseason program, seems to be moving well and has taken to the position". Bryant passed Jackson on the depth chart during June mini camps and continues to work with the starters. I really don't know what to make of this situation. Maybe its nothing more than head games by the coaching staff to try and motivate Jackson. Maybe there is more to it. What we do know is that Bryant doesn't seem to have the skill set to be a productive every down end. His size and history would suggest that at best he will be a two down end who may slide inside on passing downs or come off the field all together. With the dwindling number of DE options that we have, simply being a starter makes him worthy as a sleeper in some leagues. That said, we shouldn't have much expectation... Jackson has been given plenty of opportunity over his two seasons but has done very little with it. He was the third end at the beginning of the 2009 season and saw significant action on passing downs. Jackson opened the season on fire with 4 sacks and two forced fumbles over the first five games. He replaced Corey Redding as the starter in week four but shortly after the promotion Jackson went into hiding. In all he made eight starts and totaled just 12-2-1 in those games before being benched in week thirteen... last year's 7th round pick Nick Reed could also be a factor. He's a bit undersized for a three down guy but could get a look as a situational pass rusher. We have not heard the last about this situation and will keep an eye on it throughout August... The player we should be looking at here is at the other end. Chris Clemons has quietly settled into what appears to be an every down role there. He's a little undersized at about 240 pounds but the Seattle coaching staff seems to believe he can handle the job. The sixth year player began his career in Washington as an undrafted free agent in 2004. He played very little for the Redskins but still managed 5 sacks over two seasons. Clemons joined the Raiders in 2007 where he earned a regular role as their designated pass rush specialist. It was his most successful season as a pro as he finished with a mark of 15-5-8 with three takeaways. He has spent the last two years in Philadelphia where a crowd at the DE position made playing time hard to come by. Despite the very limited action he recorded 6.5 sacks as an Eagle. Clemons has proven to be a very good pass rusher. If he can hold up against the run and make an impact in the tackle column, he could be a very pleasant surprise. I don't know that we can expect 40 tackles out of Clemons but if he plays full time 35 or so tackles and double digit sacks are a real possibility... Brandon Mebane and Colin Cole project to be the starters at tackle. Cole is a 330 pound road block who works at the five technique or nose tackle position. As such he takes on a lot of double teams and doesn't have a lot of opportunity to prosper in the box scores. Mebane on the other hand, is the three technique tackle and is much more active. In fifteen games last season he went 41-8-1.5 and finished among the top twenty interior linemen. His career best 5.5 sacks in 2008 is added reason for optimism. Mebane doesn't have a long track record but should be worthy as a quality DT2 with a little upside. Craig Terrill and free agent addition Kevin Vickerson provide solid veteran depth at the interior positions but are little threat to make a significant impact.
Fantasy Outlook
DE Red Bryant - Sleeper with limited upside DE Chris Clemons - Strong sleeper, possible DL2 DE Nick Reed- Deep sleeper DE Lawrence Jackson - Dark horse sleeper who may have already blown his best chance DT Brandon Mebane - Quality DT2 with DT1 potential DT Colin Cole - No value DT Craig Terrill - No value DT Kevin Vickerson - No value
Linebackers
The Seahawks have a very interesting situation to sort out at their linebacker positions. Lofa Tatupu is their established MLB and team leader. Over his first three years in the league he was rock solid and consistent. Tatupu averaged 88 solo tackles, 5 takeaways and 2.5 sacks over those seasons and finished among the top 12 in each of them. When healthy he is a very productive player. Unfortunately, injuries have slowed him over the past two seasons. Tatupu played in only five games in '09 before landing on IR with a torn pectoral muscle. That injury opened the door for upstart David Hawthorne. In his first NFL start Hawthorne piled up a whopping 15 solo tackles and topped it off with an interception. He went on to light up the box scores for 93 solo tackles with 3 sacks and 5 takeaways in just eleven starts. Even better for the Seahawks, Hawthorne looked nearly as good on the field as he did in the box scores. He's a natural MLB which left the coaching staff with a dilemma entering the offseason. When Tatupu is healthy, how could they get both of these guys on the field? Leroy Hill solved that problem for them. At least temporarily. He has been the starting WLB in Seattle for the past five years, but his four game suspension will provide a very thorough audition for Hawthorne at that position. If Hawthorne performs anything like he did last season, Hill may be out of a starting job. Tatupu is only 27 years old so its hard to say if his injury struggles have been just a string of bad luck or if he's really fragile. Should he continue to battle that problem it is easy to picture Hawthorne becoming a long term solution in the middle. If Tatupu can stay healthy, Hawthorne could play his way into a full time job on the weak side. The next big question would be, which two guys play in passing situations? A healthy Tatupu is sure to be one of them. When Hawthorne was the starter last season he too was an every down guy while then rookie SLB Aaron Curry worked mostly on early downs. That could change now that Curry has a little experience under his belt. Its another situation we will be monitoring closely once the preseason games kick off. My educated guess on the eve of training camps is that Tatupu and Hawthorne remain on the field as linebackers while Curry moves up into a pass rush role. That scenario would fit with the personnel situation at DE as well. Unless Hawthorne unexpectedly struggles, I believe Hill will become the odd man out until/unless there is an injury. In my eyes Tatupu and Hawthorne both have LB2 potential. The risk has driven Tatupu's ADP down to the lower LB2 or high LB3 range and Hawthorne is falling even further in most drafts that I am seeing. I personally have more faith in Hawthorne and would target him as a value pick somewhere after the 36th LB goes off the board. Our staff IDP league draft is ongoing as I write this. Tatupu was 28th LB off the board. There have been 35 taken thus far and Hawthorne is still available. I hope to land him in the next round as my 4th LB... Curry had a somewhat disappointing rookie season for a guy who was the fourth overall pick. In just over 13 games of action he totaled 54-7-2 with a couple of forced fumbles and 6 PD. Working from the strong side position the modest tackle numbers were not unexpected but his college resume led us to expect more big plays. A year of seasoning could go a long way toward those expectations in 2010. 70 tackles will likely be his upside but if he can contribute 7-8 sacks and a hand full of takeaways, Curry could become a valuable commodity. Those numbers are certainly not out of the question. Consider him a good late round sleeper or bye week plug in.
Fantasy Outlook
MLB Lofa Tatupu - Risky but a solid LB2 if healthy WLB/MLB David Hawthorne - Should make a quality LB3 or excellent depth, with LB2 potential SLB Aaron Curry - Sleeper who could be a quality LB4 OLB Leroy Hill - Deep sleeper at best OLB Matt McCoy - No value OLB Will Herring - No value
Defensive Backs
The safety play in Seattle has been average at best for a long time. With the addition of first round pick Earl Thomas, the coaching staff expects that to change. Thomas will line up at FS where the Seahawks expect his corner like cover skills and big play ability to make an immediate impact. He might just do that for the Seahawks but as fantasy owners we shouldn't get overly excited. Don't be one of those owners who think a player will produce just because he was drafted early. Thomas has great range and is a willing tackler but is not the most physical of safeties. He came out after his sophomore season at Texas and just turned 21 in May. He was only reasonably productive during his short college career. As a freshman in '08 Thomas recorded 75 combined tackles and 17 passes defended. Last seasons production was very similar. Working as the FS in Seattle he will line up deep in most situations and will not be asked to make a big contribution in run support. Jordan Babineaux totaled 75 solo stops as the Seahawks FS last season but we probably shouldn't count on Thomas matching those numbers. I compare him to Detroit's Louis Delmas. A quality player at FS who should give us 65 or so tackles and enough big plays to warrant consideration as a 3rd DB or depth with a little upside... Even after being moved to SS the chances of Babineaux repeating last year's numbers are bleak. He quickly shuffled down the depth chart behind soon to be 37 year old veteran Lawyer Milloy. The club has since added former Charger Kevin Ellison to the mix. Ellison was waived by San Diego after being arrested on drug charges. He still has that hanging over his head and could get some vacation time, but Ellison is a former Trojan who coach Carroll is very familiar with. It looks as if he will avoid suspension for at least a while, so don't be surprised if he is the opening day starter at SS. Ellison started nine games last season for the Chargers but played more than half of the snaps in just five of them. In those games he averaged just over 6-1 with a sack and 3 passes defended. He's a player that no one will be paying attention to, and might be worthy as a last round sleeper. At the least he is a guy we need to have on our radar... There is some potential at the corner position in Seattle as well. Marcus Trufant is one of the leagues premier corners. In 2007 he was the fantasy game's #3 corner on the strength of 78 tackles, 7 picks and 14 passes defended. He's had a couple of years like that over his career but most of his seasons have produced mediocre numbers. The more likely value comes opposite of Trufant as offenses try to avoid him. Injuries caused the numbers to be spread out in '09 but Josh Wilson was a top ten corner in 2008 while working at the position. His 69 tackles were complimented by 9 turnovers, a sack and 9 passes defended that season. 2006 first round pick Kelly Jennings was working with the first team while Wilson was the nickel corner during June workouts. If this holds, Jennings might be a good corner pickup early in the season.
Fantasy Outlook
SS Jordan Babineaux - No value FS Earl Thomas - DB3 with a little upside SS Lawyer Milloy - No value SS Kevin Ellison - Sleeper with pretty strong potential CB Marcus Trufant - Depth in corner required leagues CB Josh Wilson - Sleeper to watch once the season starts CB Kelly Jennings - Possible CB2 or quality depth in corner required leagues CB Walter Thurmond - No value
That's going to do it for this year's preseason work. Be sure to check back for week one. In the meantime Footballguys will keep you up to date with training camp reports, projections/ranking updates and all the tools you need to stay on top of the ever changing landscape that is fantasy football. Sigmund Bloom, Jene Bramel and I will be doing a few IDP Audible podcasts over the next few weeks. Check those out. I'll drop in on the forums when I can as well. Until then, best of luck to you on your drafts! Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to norton@footballguys.com.