I have studied, mocked, and drafted several teams in the FFPC format this year, and I have learned a great deal. The Footballguys' Players Championship (FPC) format has some unique scoring rules such as 1.5 points per catch for tight ends, two flex starter spots and also "action scoring" which gives credit for kick return scoring. Based on that information, ADP and VBD data I am able to give some thoughts as to how to approach the overall contest and also build a competitive team.

This article is loosely based upon David Dodds' Perfect Draft articles from previous years, and much can be learned from both David and those articles. There are a few changes that I have made for both the FPC contest and to David's particular approach. First, rather than only use David's projections, I have blended the four staff projections from David Dodds, Jason Wood, Bob Henry and Maurile Tremblay equally to arrive at a consensus projection for each player. By using the Projections Dominator and using 25% weights for each staff member's projections across the board for every NFL player I can get an average viewpoint for their overall perspective for value.

Next, with the help of David Dodds I was able to build an ADP list for the FPC contest. The source data was the Pros vs. Joes contest that pitted numerous Fantasy Football Players' Championship (FFPC) players against numerous fantasy football experts. While not a perfect list (the contest is "best ball" and 26-players deep), it does provide a good amount of insight as to player values and where those "pockets of value" that drafters must target to build the best fantasy team possible.

Now we all know that there is not one way to have a perfect draft. Based upon your draft slot and how the draft flows, draft plans must be fluid enough to adapt and change to accommodate the newfound valuable players that are falling down the draft board. This is where VBD charts and the Draft Dominator can really help, but for now we will talk about breaking the draft down into a few key "segments" and then addressing valuable players that should be available later in the draft.

This article assumes fairly educated drafters. You need to decide whether your league is full of sharks, guppies or a combination of both. Count the number of Footballguys subscriptions and compare that to the number of guys crossing off players from their magazine cheatsheet to get a feel for this if you really are unsure. Against great competition, reaching for a player at the wrong time can quickly dismantle your draft and leave you missing the key "pockets of value" that can help your chances at winning.

Before we can have the "Perfect Draft", let's define our measure of success. After the draft, your team should have these qualities:

1. Against multiple projection sets, your team always grades out as one of the best teams. And to make your life easy, here just run your roster through our Rate My Team application.


2. You secured a great number of players that will outperform their draft position.


3. You have quality depth (in the right places) to allow for bye week coverage and the inevitable injury bug.


4. The majority of owners recognize that you have a team that should easily reach the playoffs.

These aren't absolutes, but I list them here so we know what we are trying to build.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.

All Players Have Value
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their draft position and you will build a winning team.

Understand What the Average Guy Thinks
You may believe someone will be the 10th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait to maximize value.

If you do not follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you believe rookie WRs are always bad or drafting anyone over 30 is too big of an injury risk, then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your draft. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value with every pick.

How do we define value? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. For this article, I will be using the VBD exported from the Draft Dominator for this FPC draft and comparing it to the FFPC Top 260 ADP List (found at the bottom of this page) I created based on FFPC Pros vs. Joes drafts. I have highlighted favorable differences in green to indicate players that may be bargains on draft day.

Specific recommendations for a Perfect FPC Draft:

You need to approach this draft as if you are trying to end up with the best team out of the 600+ that will be playing. This is possibly the most important point. Beating 11 owners and qualifying for the big dance with a roster that can never win the event should not be the desired outcome. Things that work in your normal 12 team league can be counter-productive to fielding a winning FPC team.

Specifically, I think these things are LOSING plays in FPC:

Handcuffing players with two picks in the first 8 rounds. You need to pick a side and gamble that it is correct. Handcuffs this early in a draft waste a roster spot that could easily go to another starting player in your lineup.

Taking a QB before Round 6. This has to do with the rules (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex + PPR). Take a look at how things change for the top QB as the rules change (from the VBD App):

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Aaron Rodgers (QB1) = 7th overall

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, PPR) - Rodgers = 9th overall

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (1 flex, PPR) - Rodgers = 11th overall

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (2 flex, PPR) - Rodgers = 19th overall (FPC Scoring Rules)

This effect is even more evident when you examine where both Drew Brees and Peyton Manning end up (32nd and 33rd with FPC scoring). Suffice it to say all of the elite QBs will be taken too early. Wait until the 6th or 7th round and then get ready to pounce on one of the best players left.

NOT taking a TE early. This is, by far, the biggest difference between the FPC and other scoring contests. With 1.5 points per catch, the Top 5-8 tight ends are elevated very high with many of them going in the first three rounds of the draft. Be prepared to step out there and get one earlier than you might expect - but there are two good benefits to this. First of all you get an elite class tight end, which many other owners are going to have. The additional benefit of an earlier run on tight ends (which happens often in FPC / FFPC drafts) is that other positions slide down the draft board accordingly. There can only be 48 players taken in the first four rounds. If 7-8 are tight ends, that means Top 20 RBs and Top 20 WRs will likely be available in Round 5.

Drafting a second quarterback too early. Unless you are planning on a quarterback by committee, your backup QB can wait until Rounds 11-16 of your draft. If you have a Top 7-8 quarterback you should be fine with him starting most of the time anyway. Only take two quarterbacks before Round 11 if you are going with a committee approach.

Drafting a first defense and/or first PK in the first 2/3 of the draft. The RBs, WRs and TEs are going to dry up. You need to have your share of these players to improve your chances that one emerges. Quite often the defenses predicted to be the elite ones to have for the coming season are not all that for fantasy purposes. Let someone else grab the Jets, Eagles or Vikings too early. Use your last picks to secure a kicker and defense and do not draft more than one.

I have examined a lot of strong rosters from both the Pros vs. Joes, previous seasons of the FFPC and also from my drafts and mocks this year and I believe the winning teams had this in common:

1. Winning teams usually took the best players available in the first round, but not a quarterback. This may very well mean selecting a WR or TE based upon a late draft position. After 5 rounds, these teams usually had 2 RBs, 2 WRs and a tight end.


2. Drafting RB, RB, RB with your first three picks is generally a LOSING strategy. In fact, the biggest key to winning is finding that all or nothing RB later in the draft so you can stockpile elite WRs in rounds 2 and 3.


3. The most common strong start had two TEs, two RBs and two WRs after Round 6. It did not matter how the order went so long as two of each spot was rostered.


4. Winning teams had a deep roster with deep talent pools at two or three of the non-QB spots. Teams can win with deep rosters at RB and TE, WR and TE or RB and WR. This lends itself back to drafting the best players available early in the draft.


5. Winning teams had a solid CORE (first 6 picks) and many fliers AFTER that. These teams also were very active in the blind bidding process through the season.


6. Some of their HOMERUNS hit (either by the draft or waivers) to give them a very solid lineup every week. These homeruns by definition are not value picks. They are swings for the fences. Most end up being whiffs, but some (when hit) catapult teams to the top of this event.


7. Teams drafted to win their first eleven games. You need to have the best record or the most points after 11 games to play in week for the right to join the Championship bracket (where all the big money is). So choosing second half guys (rookies, drug suspensions, tough early schedules, etc with any early picks is a recipe for disaster). Wins are important NOW.


8. All things being equal (same projected fantasy points), take the WR or TE that catches a lot of balls over the Red Zone TD producer. Guys like Witten and Jennings excel in PPR leagues because of all of their catches. If the TDs ever come, you could have an elite producer.

Generally, I would look to have this positional grouping after Round 6: 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE.

After Round 9 I would want to have grabbed my starting QB and two more depth players at either RB or WR. Typically a roster would have 1 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR and 2 TE.

After Round 12 I would want to be here: 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR and 2 TE as I added more depth behind my flex starter candidates at RB and WR and then grabbed my QB2 in Round 12.

Let's Have the Perfect FPC Draft

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.

This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Def and 1 PK. It also assumes this scoring criteria: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per reception, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, -1 points for interceptions.

In a 12-team draft, there is pressure to grab the quality RBs and WRs before they are gone. In a FPC draft, there is pressure on RBs and WRs plus elite TEs. This point is important, because failure to lock up solid starters at all three spots within the first six 5-7 rounds will likely cost you a chance at competing for the title.

Instead of concentrating on things by position, I believe the correct approach is to grab the best player available until the Top 50 are off the board. With some luck and creating the right Top 50 list, you are hopeful to still be drafting from this list when you complete the 5th round (60 picks). If you are still using this list in the 7th round, you are positioned well to make a strong run in this contest.

Creating the Perfect 50 List for FPC Leagues

Because ADP is a crucial barometer on when players will get drafted, I believe it's important to merge the FFPC Top 260 ADP List with ADP to create a single Top 50 draft list. Here is how I create this list.

For players that have a value lower than ADP, use the average of the two numbers.

For players that have a value higher than ADP, use the value number.

Example: Player A has a value of 13 and an ADP of 21. His "drafting" value would be 17. (13 + 21)/2. Conversely, if Player has a value of 21 and an ADP of 13, his "drafting" value would be 21.

Doing this for the FFPC Top 260 ADP List list yields these Top 50 players (ranked from 1st to 50th).

The First 50 Players

Essentially you are just looking to grab the best player available until this list is exhausted - but use some common sense while you do this. You must take at least one RB, one WR and one TE within the first five rounds of the draft (no exceptions). Additionally limit yourself to at most one QB or two TEs from this list. If you draft a QB because he represents value, then you must quickly address the other positions because you must catch up your depth at those key spots.

I would pay little to no attention to bye weeks during this phase. You have plenty of time to adjust after the Top 50 players are gone. The list above only has them there for your reference - focus first on accumulating talent.

After the Top 50 Players are Taken - Assessment / Building Your Core Phase

The transition from the Top 50 to rounding out your team based on need is a critical one. Your analysis here can instantly turn a good draft into a great one. Here are the questions you should be asking yourself to determine your weaknesses:

How many backs did you secure? Is this a position of strength for your team? If the answer is no, this should be your prime objective. You will need a minimum of two to start, so if you have only two consider adding depth soon.

How many wide receivers did you secure? Is this a position of strength for your team? If the answer is no, this should be your prime objective. You will need a minimum of two to start, so if you have only two consider adding depth soon.

Did you draft a QB yet? If so consider yourself done at this position until at least Round 11 in the draft. If you have not drafted quarterback yet, do not panic. Good ones will exist throughout the draft, but if you want a Top 8 QB you better grab one as soon as possible. Otherwise grab two of the next 7-9 guys on your list and build a strong QB by committee.

Do you have two TEs yet? If not, consider looking hard at getting another one before the Top 15 are gone. Elite TEs are worth a good deal in 1.5 PPR leagues, plus with the dual flex rule a stud TE can serve as a nice flex starter. Grab one if there is good talent left.

Assess your bye week situation. If two or more of your first four players are off on the same bye week, I will usually sacrifice that week to be strong in every other week. If that is not the case, then I look to patch the holes with complimentary players that could have big weeks during these rough spots. Teams lining up against Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland and Denver should all yield good results during these weeks.

As an example, Let's say you landed this team after 5 rounds (from the 6th position):

6. RB Frank Gore, SF/9

19. TE Jason Witten, Dal/4

30. WR Marques Colston, NO/10

43. RB Ryan Grant, GB/10

54. WR Hakeem Nicks, NYG/8

This is generally where you want to be. You have a slight Week 10 bye issue, but have time to recover from that. You have two solid backs, two receivers and a stud tight end.

So in this example your next steps would be:

Grab another starting running back in the next two rounds (before they dry up).

Add one WR in the next 3-4 rounds (without a Week 10 bye).

Add your starting QB in the next round or two if a Top 8 one is available.

Add a second TE in the next 3-4 rounds.

Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 1 QB, 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 2 TEs after 9 rounds.

Here is another example (drafting from the 11th position):

11. WR Randy Moss, NE/5

14. TE Dallas Clark, Ind/7

35. RB Pierre Thomas, NO/10

38. WR Steve Smith, Car/6

59. QB Tony Romo, Dal/4

Assessing where you are at:

You just got your stud QB. Shut that position down for the next several rounds.

You have two strong starting WRs. This is not a position of need, but you should likely add one in the 8th or 9th round for depth.

You have just one RB. This should be your top priority since you need to start 2 each week and the good ones will dry up fast. Look to grab a RB in the next round and another in Rounds 8 or 9.

You have one of the best TEs, but do not rest here. Two studs are better than one, and with the ability to flex a TE into your lineup a second one is still desirable. Look for a Top 15 TE if still available with one of your next two picks.

You have no bye week issues, so you are fine there and later depth will cover any issues that develop.

Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 1 QB, 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 2 TEs after 9 rounds.

See the theme here? That's right.

The Perfect FPC Draft should have 1 QB, 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 2 TEs after nine rounds.

Quarterbacks

The plan is simple at the quarterback position this year. Unless you grab a top star at value from the Top 50 list above, wait until 8 or 9 quarterbacks are drafted before taking your first. In a FPC league this strategy will plop you firmly into the sweet spot of quarterback value.

I will stick my neck out and say that there are two quarterbacks to really go hard after if the Top 7-8 guys are all gone: Kevin Kolb and Jay Cutler. Both quarterbacks are likely to throw a ton this year for differing reasons but the odds of them getting either 300 yards or three touchdown passes in any given week are much higher than the QBs available at QB10 and beyond. These are the types of quarterbacks that you must have towards the end of the year to post comparable scores to the Drew Brees and Peyton Manning teams.

Here are the quality fantasy QBs that I expect should be available after you have finished drafting players from your top 50 list:

Matt Schaub, Hou/7 (Value = 55, ADP = 60) in the 6th or later - Matt Schaub is a top flight quarterback that exploded last year, and with weapons such as Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels he should be a Top 6-8 quarterback once again this year. Grabbing him in the sixth round is a great value as he can certainly post 300 yards or three touchdowns any given week.

Jay Cutler, Chi/8 (Value = 67, ADP = 73) in the 7th or later - Mike Martz is now in Chicago, and we all know what Martz did for Kurt Warner. Expect similar results (but not quite similar numbers) as the Bears throw a ton this year to all of their young wide receivers. Cutler also will benefit from two solid receivers out of the backfield in Chester Taylor and Matt Forte.

Kevin Kolb, Phi/8 (Value = 77, ADP = 83) in the 7th or later - Andy Reid never met a game that he did not like to throw the ball. Kolb will be dropping back to throw about two-thirds of the time as the Eagles will take to the air often. Philadelphia has an opportunistic defense but it is young and they have a very tough schedule. The Eagles will have to put 27 or more on the board most weeks to contend for a win, so expect Kolb to target DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek and Jeremy Maclin often every game.

Brett Favre, Min/4 (Value = 90, ADP = 95) in the 9th or later - Assuming Mr. Favre does not retire (again), Favre is poised for another good season. Favre's numbers were unreal last year (33 touchdowns against only 7 interceptions), and that might be a bit much to ask for once again. He does have plenty of targets with Sidney Rice, Visanthe Shiancoe, Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin so he should easily get over 20 touchdowns.

Donovan McNabb, Wash/9 (Value = 99, ADP = 104) in the 9th or later - The Redskins have some "experience" in their backfield, which is another way of saying that all of their backs are old. Washington is also in a very tough division with Dallas, Philadelphia and the Giants so McNabb will have to throw quite a bit to keep pace. Look for McNabb to overcome the lack of big talent at wide receiver just as he used to do in his first nine years in Philadelphia.

I would then target these backups later in the draft:

Matt Ryan, Atl/8 (Value = 93, ADP = 111) in the 10th or later - The Falcons are in a position to battle for a playoff spot if things break just right, and one of those is Matt Ryan stepping up in 2010. Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White are solid performers as receivers so as long as Ryan hits them for plenty of scoring chances then he makes for a solid QBBC member.

Vince Young, Ten/9 (Value = 134, ADP = 142) in the 12th or later - While I am personally not a fan of Vince Young, you have to like the value you can get with him as a backup quarterback. He can run and he does complete plenty of short passes to his tight ends and Chris Johnson, who can take it to the house on any play. While he may not post big numbers he certainly is a solid bye week fill-in for most fantasy teams.

David Garrard, Jac/9 (Value = 133, ADP = 149) in the 13th or later - I know, I know…. Footballguys' staff are all accused of drinking too much Garrard Kool-Aid, but this is about value here. As a later QB2 in Round 14, how can you not like a guy who can run or throw the ball to Mike Sims-Walker or Maurice Jones-Drew? He will not put up three touchdowns or 300 yards very often but he certainly is a capable fill-in backup.

Running Backs

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. But if you followed the Top 50 plan from above, you should at least have a solid starter and possibly a starting pair of backs on your roster.

But two or three quality backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...having depth at RB does.

Here are other situation that I think represent value this year (outside of the Top 50 picks):

Reggie Bush, NO/10 (Value = 52, ADP = 66) in the 6th round or later - The Saints are a high-powered offense and Drew Brees is usually good for well over 4,000 yards. Reggie Bush is worth a sixth round pick due to his triple threat status as a rusher, receiver and a kick returner with Action Scoring in effect.

Ronnie Brown, Mia/5 (Value = 51, ADP = 72) in the 6th round or later - Ronnie Brown was well on his way to a Top 20 finish last year before his injury. The Dolphins are trying to get their passing attack going with the addition of Brandon Marshall, but Brown is their top runner and also runs the Wildcat when he is healthy. If all systems are go in training camp then Brown is a steal in Round 6.

C.J. Spiller, Buf/6 (Value = 68, ADP = 85) in the 7th round or later - CJ Spiller is an explosive back with big upside and he may also be returning kicks. If you are a big believer in him capturing the bulk of the Buffalo workload this year then he might be worth a seventh rounder.

Fred Jackson, Buf/6 (Value = 79, ADP = 86) in the 7th round or later - Fred Jackson looks to be the main man right now for the Bills, and Chan Gailey loves to pick a feature back and go with him for most of the workload. Jackson could be a fantasy star waiting to happen this year.

Michael Bush, Oak/10 (Value = 86, ADP = 97) in the 9th round or later - The Oakland Raiders are going to surprise a number of teams this year. Getting Jason Campbell as their quarterback stabilizes a passing game and opens up the ground attack with Michael Bush leading the way. The big back will get most of the work especially around the goal line.

Darren Sproles, SD/10 (Value = 71, ADP = 121) in the 10th round or later - While everyone focuses on the new kid in town (Ryan Mathews), it is Darren Sproles that could be a nice value later in FPC drafts. Sproles is a PPR machine and plays often on third downs. His explosiveness affords him the chance to score on any touch which also boosts his value as a kick returner.

Leon Washington, Sea/5 (Value = 138, ADP = 169) in the 14th round or later - The ground game in Seattle is in flux with Justin Forsett likely getting a good amount of the workload, but do not count out Leon Washington. Washington can step in on third downs and catch passes out of the backfield plus he can return kicks. While he is far from Reggie Bush in talent his late draft status with about 75% of Bush's fantasy potential makes him a strong late running back flyer pick.

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is following the Top 50 plan above and then swooping in and stealing the players that slide unnecessarily in a draft.

Hines Ward, Pit/5 (Value = 31, ADP = 55) in the 6th round or later - The Steelers shipped Santonio Holmes off to the Jets, leaving Hines Ward to be the unquestioned WR1 for Pittsburgh. Ward is not young by any stretch but his athleticism and skills have not deteriorated yet. Ward should make for a strong WR3 candidate for FPC lineups.

Santana Moss, Wash/9 (Value = 74, ADP = 90) in the 7th round or later - Donovan McNabb will need someone to catch passes this year and there is not much on the Washington wide receiver depth chart after Moss. The Redskins are very likely to be throwing often with a questionable (and old) backfield so look for Moss to lead the Redskins in all receiving categories.

Terrell Owens, Cin/6 (Value = 69, ADP = 117) in the 8th round or later - This one is all about the value and to see if the rest of your league is keeping up with their latest ADP and draft information. By no stretch of the imagination should the Bengals' WR1 (or "WR1A" to Chad Ochocinco) be available after seven rounds, but stranger things have happened. Look for Cincinnati to throw well this year with two star wideouts.

Derrick Mason, Bal/8 (Value = 72, ADP = 108) in the 8th round or later - Baltimore is a run-first team but that does not mean that they have no passing attack. Mason was their WR1 last year and there was little after him for wideout production (Ray Rice was second in receptions) but now Anquan Boldin is in the mix. Boldin becomes the WR1 while Mason is the possession WR from the other side. Let others draft Boldin too early while you can grab the better PPR wideout from a value perspective in Round 8.

Jabar Gaffney, Den/9 (Value = 76, ADP = 116) in the 9th round or later - Denver is a tough fantasy team to gauge, but Jabar Gaffney is poised to be a starter this year. Many are talking about the two rookie draft picks (Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker) so Gaffney is flying under the radar. If he makes it to your pick in Round 9 or 10 snap him up.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Sea/5 (Value = 82, ADP = 96) in the 9th round or later - Seattle is another team that is tough to decipher this year, but rest assured that they will be throwing the ball. Houshmandzadeh is a solid PPR / possession receiver that will be a starter all year for the Seahawks. Seattle could struggle this year, making the passing game worth more and boosting his fantasy value.

Lee Evans, Buf/6 (Value = 73, ADP = 115) in the 9th round or later - The Buffalo Bills are not going to be very good, but getting their top wide receiver in the ninth round still represents good value. Evans' performances may be up and down but in good matchups he could be a decent bye week starter.

Devin Hester, Chi/8 (Value = 83, ADP = 101) in the 9th round or later - Chicago has brought in Mike Martz to get the passing game going, and Devin Hester is slated as the starting WR1 for the Bears. Others may contribute like Johnny Knox but Hester looks to be the best wideout to own considering that he also has kick return value.

Steve Breaston, Ari/6 (Value = 91, ADP = 102) in the 9th round or later - With Anquan Boldin gone the door is wide open for Breaston to start and produce for the Cardinals this season. With Kurt Warner gone and Matt Leinart starting there are reasonable misgivings about the Arizona passing game but in Round 9 Breaston certainly offers good value with upside.

Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ/7 (Value = 92, ADP = 151) in the 12th round or later - The Jets may be lacking their deep threat in Santonio Holmes for the first four weeks, but Braylon Edwards can step right in and lead that effort. What gets lost in the shuffle is their possession receiver in Jerricho Cotchery. Cotchery can move the chains and rack up 4-5 catches a game. He is not going to win you many games but he certainly is a solid depth guy that can score a touchdown once in a while.

Eddie Royal, Den/9 (Value = 108, ADP = 152) in the 12th round or later - Eddie Royal had a stupendous rookie season and then he fell of the face of the Earth last year. Why? Josh McDaniels had Royal reading the defense and making adjustments on the fly last year which is out of Royal's comfort zone. The Broncos will get Royal predetermined routes this year and give him plenty of targets, making him a strong PPR upside wideout on a team that will be throwing often this year.

Mohamed Massaquoi, Cle/8 (Value = 115, ADP = 147) in the 12th round or later - Make no mistake about it, drafting a Cleveland Brown is not exactly a recipe for a championship most of the time. So why take Massaquoi? He is the likely WR1 for the Browns and they will be throwing often as they continue to try and turn the offense and the football team around. Jake Delhomme can throw it deep and hit Massaquoi for some big plays this year, giving him plenty of upside.

Donnie Avery, StL/9 (Value = 139, ADP = 166) in the 15th round or later - Drafting starting wide receivers after Round 15 is a great way to go in these drafts. Avery is going to be down there in the WR50+ range most of the time due to the Rams' lack of success and with a rookie under center in Sam Bradford. Avery is a good receiver that can get open and score touchdowns and he has done it on some terrible teams. If St. Louis starts to improve Avery has plenty of upside.

Mike Thomas, Jac/9 (Value = 142, ADP = 181) in the 15th round or later - Jacksonville needs a WR2 to develop and start opposite of Mike Sims-Walker. That seems to be Mike Thomas' job to lose right now, making him a viable NFL starting wideout. Thomas also does well out of the slot, making him worth a little more in PPR leagues. He is worth a late selection if he holds onto the starting job.

Bernard Berrian, Min/4 (Value = 170, ADP = 192) in the 16th round or later - Bernard Berrian is a really interesting wide receiver to draft this year. Minnesota scores a ton of points (with Brett Favre) so that makes even their WR3 worth drafting. It has to be said that Berrian has even bigger upside with Sidney Rice having hip issues and Percy Harvin's constant battle with migraines. If Berrian starts in a given week then that gives him great upside potential.

Nate Washington, Ten/9 (Value = 192, ADP = 223) in the 16th round or later - This is about value here, and while I am not a fan of Nate Washington he is still a starting NFL WR available after Round 15. I'd rather hope Kenny Britt is available personally this late as he offers more upside, but I cannot argue with Washington fans here as you grab him very late in the draft.

Brian Hartline, Mia/5 (Value = 208, ADP = 237) in the 17th round or later - Once again this is about drafting a starting wide receiver late in these drafts. Hartline is the odds-on favorite to start in Miami for the Dolphins and he has great upside with a 16+ yards per catch performance last season. Hartline should be the deep threat for Miami with Brandon Marshall racks up the catches under 15 yards.

Louis Murphy, Mia/5 (Value = 217, ADP = 245) in the 17th round or later - Oakland is quickly fixing their passing game with the addition of Jason Campbell. That makes all of their wideouts more valuable including Murphy, who looks to be their third WR and slot man. Murphy has starter and PPR upside if Chaz Schilens or Darrius Heyward-Bey falters.

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap grab quality receivers early and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.

Tight Ends

PPR leagues do spread out the tight end scoring a lot more than standard leagues, but thanks to the 50% increase for tight ends (1.5 points per catch) this position has heightened value. Another key to tight ends is that up to three of them can start for you in any given week due to the Dual Flex rule, so make sure you have at least three viable options with your 20 selections. Typically the very elite guys go to early (Witten, Gates, and Dallas Clark) and I expect that trend to continue this season. Here are the TEs I will be targeting after the top 50 players have been drafted, remembering that a key to success is to make sure that you get at least one Top 10 tight end in your first five picks:

Heath Miller, Pit/5 (Value = 48, ADP = 60) in the 6th round or later - The Steelers do not have Santonio Holmes and Miller is a solid Red Zone target. Look for him to slip through the cracks between the numbers and if defenses focus on Hines Ward then Miller should see plenty of scoring opportunities.

Jeremy Shockey, NO/10 (Value = 95, ADP=130) in the 8th round or later - Shockey may be on his last legs, but the starting tight end in New Orleans has just crazy fantasy value. Jimmy Graham may emerge later in the year and challenge for work (and you may want to watch for that either with your last pick or a waiver wire move) but as long as Shockey is in the lineup he might be valuable in yours.

Tony Scheffler, Det/7 (Value = 205, ADP=131) in the 11th round or later - The Detroit Lions went out and acquired Scheffler in a trade this year and they plan to use him as their primary receiving tight end. If teams are preoccupied with Calvin Johnson that should leave Scheffler lots of chances in the Red Zone.

Kevin Boss, NYG/8 (Value = 187, ADP=139) in the 12th round or later - The Giants are focusing on who will be starting outside at wide receiver, but defenses must also account for their big tight end. Boss is the clear starter and will be on the field virtually every offensive snap. In the right matchups he can score a touchdown or two and post a big fantasy score.

Place Kickers

In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.

In leagues that draft this position real late (most leagues), look towards the top of the kicker list in Round 14. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

Defenses

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until Round 12 to assess what to do about this position. If the New York Jets are still on the board, grab them. If they are gone though, I would wait until late in the draft and then take the best defense with good early season matchups and a reasonably late bye. The one team that I really have my eye on are the San Diego Chargers. They have a great opening schedule for the first six weeks (at KC, Jacksonville, at Seattle, Arizona, at Oakland, at St. Louis) and a later bye. Their ADP puts them as a nice pick later (around Round 16 or 17) so you can grab them right before your final sleeper picks and have good matchups for the first six weeks. Roster spots are coveted with 10 starters so carrying two defenses is a luxury few teams can afford. Draft one defense and another WR, TE or RB flyer pick with upside instead.

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing St. Louis, Cleveland, Denver or Jacksonville, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

Putting It All Together

In Summary

1. Use the Top 50 List to grab as much "core" talent as possible


2. Assess your strengths and weaknesses after the Top 50 picks are gone. Look to fill in your roster as well as adding more RB, WR and TE depth should significant value be present.


3. At the end of 9 rounds, you should have 1 QB, 3 RBs, 3 WRs and 2 TEs.


4. QB value is available throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Unless you get a top guy at a reduced price, look to grab your first QB after 8 or 9 have been taken.


5. Stockpile value wide receivers. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league. In this format, allocate no less than 7 roster spots for wide receivers. When in doubt choose younger players that have higher ceilings. To win the FPC you must connect on some cheap talent.


6. Keep a pulse on TE throughout the draft and do not wait too long to grab your first tight end. They will go early in most drafts, but if for some reason they are falling do not hesitate to grab two studs. If there is a run on them as expected, do not wait and grab at least one of them before the studs disappear. The good news about a tight end run is that RB and WR values will fall to later rounds. Kellen Winslow, Heath Miller and John Carlson are solid TE2s to target.


7. Wait on defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second one in Round 12. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense unless you feel you can spare two roster spots, but odds are a flyer on a RB or WR is a better value. Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.


8. Wait on kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second on your list in round 14. If kickers go early, take the fifth to eighth kicker off the board.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the FFPC Top 260 ADP List but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.

Here is a sample team drafted from the 6th position (All picks taken at or before their ADP).

Rd 1 - Pick 6 - RB Frank Gore, SF/9 (ADP = 7)

Rd 2 - Pick 19 - TE Jason Witten, Dal/4, (ADP = 20)

Rd 3 - Pick 30 - WR Marques Colston, NO/10 (ADP = 35)

Rd 4 - Pick 43 - RB Jonathan Stewart, Car/6 (ADP = 43)

Rd 5 - Pick 54 - WR Wes Welker, NE/5 (ADP = 54)

Rd 6 - Pick 67 - TE Visanthe Shiancoe, Min/4 (ADP = 69)

Team breakdown: 0 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE

Rd 7 - Pick 78 - QB Kevin Kolb, Phi/4 (ADP = 83)

Rd 8 - Pick 91 - RB Michael Bush, Oak/10 (ADP = 97)

Rd 9 - Pick 102 - WR Terrell Owens, Cin/6 (ADP = 117)

Team breakdown: 1 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 2 TE

Rd 10 - Pick 115 - RB Laurence Maroney, NE/5 (ADP = 118)

Rd 11 - Pick 126 - QB Matthew Stafford, Det/7 (ADP = 127)

Rd 12 - Pick 139 - WR Mohamed Massaquoi, Cle/8 (ADP = 147)

Team breakdown: 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE

Rd 13 - Pick 150 - WR Eddie Royal, Den/9 (ADP = 152)

Rd 14 - Pick 163 - RB Leon Washington, Sea/5 (ADP = 169)

Rd 15 - Pick 174 - TE Bo Scaife, Ten/9 (ADP = 179)

Rd 16 - Pick 187 - WR Bernard Berrian, Min/4 (ADP = 192)

Rd 17 - Pick 198 - Best Defense Available (San Diego may fall here at ADP = 196)

Rd 18 - Pick 211 - WR Brian Hartline, Mia/5 (ADP = 237)

Rd 19 - Pick 222 - Best Kicker Available

Rd 20 - Pick 235 - RB Glen Coffee, SF/9 (ADP > 240)

Team breakdown: 2 QB, 6 RB, 7 WR, 3 TE, 1 PK and 1 D/ST

Note: I have crafted this team to be balanced with three TEs, 6 RBs and 7 WRs. Handcuffing very late with Glen Coffee helps me to assure a starting RB in San Francisco while later round flyers on a few wideouts that could break out are never a bad idea. This is the type of balanced roster with solid upside that could vault a team like this way up the rankings should these later players take advantage of their potential.

FFPC Top 260 ADP List

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.