When joining a dynasty league - whether it is a new league or one with a long history - I almost always utilize a strategy for my team that is startling in its effectiveness but decidedly rare in its implementation. Frankly, I've not encountered anyone else doing it, at least not in the same, focused way that I do. (That's not to say I'm the only person building a team this way, just that I haven't seen other folks trying it.)
My strategy is simple: Build for next year. Not "build for the future" or "acquire young players" or "try to win this season." My strategy is to build for the very next season. Thus is born the "Year 2" strategy. It is startling how many people in dynasty startup drafts draft exactly like they're in a redraft league through the first 6-8 rounds with no thought to what their team will look like in a season or two. And when they finally get around to thinking of the "dynasty" aspect of things, they take long-shot flyers on guys who have a very remote chance of ever being anything more than a bit player in the NFL.
The advantages in the "Year 2" strategy are ample.
Advantage #1 - Since next season isn't really that far off, it is fairly easy to make assumptions about players. By targeting players who will be more valuable next year then this year, you are working in a market where the players you are pursuing are all "buy low" candidates. Last year I mentioned Rashard Mendenhall and Chad Henne as players who had relatively low ADPs in the summer of 2009 but were likely to be much more expensive in 2010. This year, players like Matthew Stafford, Wes Welker, and Donald Brown are likely available at draft positions far lower than this time next year. You're not trying to gauge Jimmy Claussen's future prospects or the chance of C.J. Spiller turning in to Chris Johnson. Rather, you are evaluating players that are a year away from the chance to be full-time, top-tier performers. You're looking for players who have played enough to convince you they have a future but not so much that the cat is out of the bag. In 2007, Michael Turner fit the bill and his 2008 season was extraordinary by any standard. Aaron Rodgers could have been had for ten cents on the dollar as recently as January of 2008. The aforementioned Mendenhall was a 5th or 6th round grab in last summer's startup dynasty drafts.
Advantage #2 - Since you are building specifically for next season, you are significantly more focused then people who continually stock-pile young players "for the future." I often see teams interested in acquiring young talent without giving any real thought to how, when, and if that player is ever going to really have a chance to shine. This is what leads to players like Troy Smith and Correll Buckhalter remaining on rosters for years at a time in the hope that one day they'll turn in to a productive player. Trying to guess who will be the starting quarterback or starting running back of a certain team three years from now is a waste of time. Furthermore, holding on to a player like Dennis Dixon or Jordy Nelson because you don't want to see them pan out eventually for someone else is equally foolish. If you are thinking about next year and next year alone, you'll find that who to keep and who to cut becomes a much easier decision.
Advantage #3 - Your team probably won't be very good this year, meaning you're likely to pick early in the draft preceding the season you're gunning for. Imagine if you traded some older, useful veterans right now for players like the two I mentioned earlier AND ended up with a top selection in the 2011 draft. Not only would you already have a potent roster, you are also in a position to improve it even more without giving up any players in a trade.
Advantage #4 - The really good teams will overpay for marginal players. Every dynasty league has a handful of teams that look loaded, some more than others. These teams likely have assets that fit your strategy just as you have assets that they covet. As such, trading an older, starting player with lots of miles on him for a younger player might not be that bad of an idea. Last summer, I used "LaDainian Tomlinson for Jonathan Stewart" as an example; that one would have turned out pretty well. This year, players like Randy Moss and Donovan McNabb might be worth dealing for a younger player like Hakeem Nicks or Josh Freeman respectively. The other guy, thinking only about the immediate future, may think he fleeced you and for the purposes of this year he probably has. And next year when his assets are a year older and on the decline, you'll be sitting pretty with a young player with his best years right ahead of him.
As a note, one of the cardinal rules of fantasy football is that you shouldn't tank games to improve draft position. In a way, this strategy creeps very close to that line, but never over it. If you go in to this season with Mark Sanchez and Tarvaris Jackson as the only quarterbacks on your new dynasty roster, so be it. If you want to trade Reggie Wayne for Roddy White, go for it. If you think that passing on Ronnie Brown for Justin Forsett makes you stronger for Year Two, then do it. As long as you field the best lineup possible from your roster each week, you should have a clear conscience. Every league has team's that are bad; yours is simply bad because you're incubating players who should be very good next year. And when your strategy pays off in about 18 months as you hoist the trophy, you can rest easy.
Dynasty leagues are fun precisely because you get to build something, tinker with it, tear it down and rebuild it. My experience has been that many dynasty owners think that "rebuilding" is a process without specific goals. (Maybe that's why they always seem to be rebuilding.) Other owners fail to properly value younger players that can be acquired for cheap because they are too enamored with squeezing one more good season out of old horses like Chad Ochocinco. By following the "Year 2" strategy, you can have the best of both worlds and the worst of neither.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to dowling@footballguys.com.