I don't see many defensive players getting a lot more love than I think they deserve, so this season's From the Gut takes are written with undervalued players in mind.
Defensive Line
It's been years since Robert Mathis has played every down for the Colts, with the team choosing to rotate him on early downs at least every third series. The Colts are extremely thin at defensive end this year, listing two defensive tackles as backups to Mathis. I think Mathis sees more snaps this season than he has since 2006. If he can stay healthy, he's proven that he can penetrate and pursue well enough on running downs and he could return to his former seasons of 50-10 production. Unless the Colts change things up and find a body that they're willing to rotate in over the next two weeks, move Mathis comfortably into your top ten defensive end prospects.
Six months ago, I would have had Everette Brown highlighted in this article. He seemed primed to move into an every-down role with Julius Peppers likely gone in free agency. Instead, another long time favorite of mine, Charles Johnson has assumed an every-down role. Johnson could be the next Mike Rucker, Charles Grant type defensive end - a guy without true edge rushing speed but the size and quickness to play the run and pass extremely well. Others may have Matt Shaughnessy, Kroy Biermann or Cliff Avril at the top of their breakout defensive end list, but I'm targeting Johnson.
I think the Tampa Bay defense is on the verge of very good things. Three young and dynamic linebackers, a big play corner and two big play safeties in the back seven and a pair of promising young defensive tackles. But I think defensive end is where the biggest stat breakout comes this year, with both Stylez White and Kyle Moore possible 40-8 talents. Moore in particular is way off the grid right now and has lots of upside as a very late pick to fill your DL3 slot.
There are lots of intriguing names among the league's defensive tackles this year. Many of the 3-4 fronts are moving toward using a penetrating one-gap nose tackle rather than a space-eater to clog the middle. I think we'll see Randy Starks and Kyle Williams join Jay Ratliff as every-week starters in leagues that use DTs. There are also a handful of high upside 3-techinques to choose from, including Jason Jones, Sedrick Ellis, Brandon Mebane and Gerald McCoy to go along with trusted options like Jonathan Babineaux and Kevin Williams. It's been a number of years since a 3-technique DT reached double digits in sacks, but one of the above candidates could break through this season.
Linebacker
Take a look at the splits for DeMeco Ryans over the past four seasons. When not playing through an injury (late 2007 and 2008) and not limited by a short stretch of unexpectedly poor tackle opportunity (early 2009), Ryans has always been on 100+ solo tackle pace - regardless of how talented his surrounding cast has been. Even with Brian Cushing in the lineup, Ryans had 52 solos over the final eight games of 2009. The Texans offense is solid, but questions remain both along the defensive line and at cornerback. Ryans' tackle opportunity should remain average to above-average this year. His ADP has risen with Cushing suspended for the first four games of 2010, but some will still shy away from him presuming that his rookie season was a bit of a fluke. Don't expect 126 solos ever again, but Ryans will still a strong LB1.
The gag order on new coordinator Mike Nolan and some misleading beat writer comments earlier in the summer made it difficult to determine just how the Dolphins would use prized free agent Karlos Dansby. But there were enough clues available to push Dansby as a possible stud-in-the-making. First, moving Randy Starks inside to NT in a 3-4 front strongly suggested that Mike Nolan was going to call the shots and transition this defense away from the 2-gap 3-4 that Bill Parcells has long preferred. Dansby himself had the looks of the kind of playmaker that Nolan likes at ILB. Now that we've seen a couple of preseason games, there's no doubt. Dansby is playing WILB in what will be primarily a 1-gap 3-4. What's so special about that? Donnie Edwards, Patrick Willis, D.J. Williams - and others before them - have played the same position in the same scheme. 100+ solo tackles is well within reach for Dansby. Don't be shocked when he finishes in the top five this year.
Every year, a young linebacker with talent gets more responsibility than he had the previous season. Every year, he gets bumped up the consensus rankings. Every year, it's not enough. Curtis Lofton in 2009, Channing Crowder in 2008, D.J. Williams in 2007, Will Witherspoon in 2006, Jonathan Vilma in 2005. All young linebackers who moved into a more favorable position for production or saw their snap counts increase. It's going to happen again this season. DeAndre Levy and Stephen Tulloch both have consensus rankings outside the top 15 among my FBG colleagues and are ranked even lower around the internet. Both have proven themselves capable tacklers, both are very likely every-down players and neither has much competition for tackles. At least one, and arguably both, will approach 100 solos and an easy top ten ranking this year. You can get one or both a full four to five rounds (or more) after the big dogs at the position get drafted. Ignoring the linebacker position until 12-15 have come off the board in favor of depth at RB and WR and DE has been my strategy in every draft so far this year. Unless you absolutely must have Patrick Willis, I think you should do the same.
Later in your draft, I think there are three prime LB3 targets that you can scoop after at least 30 other linebackers go off the board. In a couple of cases, you can wait until much later in your draft and grab them as your LB5 and get huge value.
***David Hawthorne exploded onto the scene after Lofa Tatupu's injury, but may be seen as overrated with his move back outside. His ADP will be tough to pin down, because some won't be aware of the move and will take him in the top 20 on the strength of last season's huge tackle numbers. If he starts sliding outside the top 25, however, he will represent great value. I've seen enough of Pete Carroll's defensive plan this preseason to expect that he'll be using lots of 4-3 Under, which means much more tackle opportunity for the WLB than other 4-3 fronts. That puts Hawthorne in the class of many Tampa-2 WLBs over the years. He may not produce as Thomas Davis did, but 90 solos and an easy LB2 finish isn't out of the question - assuming he plays in the Seattle nickel packages. That's a question that will hopefully be answered if Tatupu gets back on the field for the third preseason game.
***I'm not down on London Fletcher in Washington's new 3-4 as much as I love the value of Rocky McIntosh. This 3-4 scheme won't be as favorable as Miami's, but McIntosh is playing the WILB position and he's been taking all the nickel snaps thus far in the preseason. I've been burned on guys like Keith Brooking and Kevin Burnett in the past two seasons in a similar situation, but there's no reason not to continue to take shots at this kind of upside with your last linebacker roster spot. If McIntosh hits, he's a LB2. If he flops, he's much easier to cut than a Lawrence Timmons or Keith Bulluck or James Harrison.
***I'm disappointed that Daryl Washington has had to work his way up from the third team in Arizona behind replacement level talent like Paris Lenon and others. Despite a dominating performance against backups during the first week of the preseason, it's not shocking that the team wants him to have a little more seasoning without Gerald Hayes healthy enough to keep him lined up properly early in the season. But Washington is another every-down WILB in the making who'll have a target rich environment when he takes over. He's worth the roster spot late if you've already stacked your team with strong options at LB.
Defensive Backs
It's been two full seasons now since the Great Defensive Back Crash of 2007, when one lonely DB finished with more than 80 solo tackles. Nightmares of rotating defensive backfields and interchangeable safeties scared even veteran IDP owners, who began to think that the DB position would never again be safe to target early in drafts. Despite the exploits of Yeremiah Bell and Tyvon Branch, Eric Weddle and Roman Harper, Bernard Pollard and Brian Dawkins, fear of the DB persists across the IDP landscape. I'm predicting a return to the glory days of Victor Green and Leroy Butler this season, my IDP friends. In addition to Bell, Branch, Pollard, Harper and Dawkins, look out for a few of these names to run up monster IDP stats this year.
Just because a player has Ed Reed like coverage instincts and ball skills doesn't mean he'll be doomed to roam centerfield. Eric Berry will see time in the deep middle and he might be found covering slot receivers in a thin Kansas City cornerback group. But he'll be in the box on lots of snaps, behind a suspect front seven on a team likely to see well above-average tackle opportunity. Rodney Harrison has said that Romeo Crennel will use Berry as he used Harrison - and Harrison was giddy about the prospects of Berry playing his old role. 80 solos, 2-3 sacks, 3-5 interceptions and double digit passes defensed are all within reach.
Patrick Chung is following the Bill Belichick program to the letter. The strong safety position might be the most difficult to learn in Belichick's hybrid playbook, which asks its SS to align the secondary, support the run, blitz and cover. Chung took a year to learn the playbook and get comfortable in the system - as Sean Jones did in Cleveland years ago - and quickly pushed aside James Sanders in camp. Chung was tabbed as overrated by some earlier in the summer, but he's had 10 solo tackles (13 total) in just over four quarters of work this preseason. He's another player primed for a Rodney Harrison like role and more than capable of big tackle numbers and lots of big plays.
I thought LaRon Landry had top five DB potential as a rookie. He flashed at times early in his career before the tragic death of Sean Taylor led to the Redskins to move Landry to free safety. He's fallen off the radar in many IDP circles, but his 77 solos last season should have your attention. Now back in a more traditional strong safety role, Landry is more talented than Yeremiah Bell and Brian Dawkins, two guys who had no trouble running up 85+ solos in a 3-4 scheme. Add him to the list of players who could have 80 solos before the fantasy playoffs begin.
Add Morgan Burnett, Donte Whitner, Lawyer Milloy and T.J. Ward to the list of potential 80 solo tackle safeties and you're looking at a renaissance of production across the league. I won't be surprised to see five to seven defensive backs top 85 solos this year, a feat that's not happened in many, many years. Since defensive backs are likely to remain relative afterthoughts in your drafts, you won't have to fight to roster two of this group well into the second half of your drafts.
There are again plenty of strong cornerback options sprinkled among the better safety prospects, but I think Tramon Williams, Zackary Bowman and Kareem Jackson are seriously undervalued as DB2+ potentials. Williams will benefit from playing ahead and seeing more than his share of an already high passing attempts against workload opposite Charles Woodson. Bowman moves into the more favorable LCB spot in Chicago this year and flashed the dual run support - ball skill ability that made Charles Tillman an every-year top ten option. Kareem Jackson (and Kyle Wilson if Darrelle Revis holds out into the season) will be this year's prime rookie corner rule candidates.
Best of luck in your drafts this year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to bramel@footballguys.com.