This preseason edition of Buy Low/Sell High will focus on changes in momentum of player value that you need to take advantage of to dominate your draft. Round projections assume 12 team PPR leagues that start 2 RB and 3 WR with a flex WR/RB position and four point passing TDs.
Buy Low - WR/TE
Steve Smith (Car) - Smith has been a bit of a forgotten man because the recovery from the re-broken arm has had him out of a lot of training camp and all preseason action. You can still count on him to be full intensity and full-go for the week 1 game vs. the Giants, and count on him to be a fantasy WR1 this year. Smith has averaged almost six catches a game with Matt Moore starting at QB, and just over 90 yards a game with four TDs in seven games the two have started together - and Smith missed a half in one of those games! He's a value in the third, steal in the fourth.
Terrell Owens - Many assume that Owens has lost a step because his numbers dropped last year, but that is more of a measure of the surrounding offense than any deficiency in Owens game (same goes for Lee Evans). In the preseason, it has appeared that Carson Palmer is going to target TO like the #1 receiver in this offense, and he could easily return to his previous standard of WR1 production. He's a great WR3 get in the sixth or seventh.
Santana Moss - Has Moss ever played with a QB as skilled as Donovan McNabb? DeSean Jackson led the league in long TDs with McNabb at the helm last year, look for Moss's big play output to get an uptick, along with his targets in what should be a pass-friendly Shanahan-squared offense. He's a great boom/bust WR3 to target around the seventh or eighth round.
Mike Williams (both TB and Sea) - The Tampa version of Williams is a fine flier after the eighth who has WR2 upside with his gunslinging young QB and natural jumpball talent. The Seattle version is clearly the most talented WR on the roster now that he has revived his career via hard work and dedication. He is available as a very late round pick, but he should displace Deion Branch or TJ Houshmandzadeh soon in the starting lineup if he doesn't drop off the pace he set this spring and summer.
Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal - With Kyle Orton hitting on all cylinders right now and likely to be among the league leaders in pass attempts, someone is going to emerge as an 80+ catch receiver. Gaffney and Royal are the two best candidates. Gaffney has the experience and dependability, Royal has the talent and the slot receiver "Welker" role. Surprisingly, Orton seems like a better bet to turn one of his WRs into a fantasy stud than Jay Cutler. Try to snag one of these guys around the tenth round.
Zach Miller (Oak) - How many more reports do we need to hear about Jason Campbell really zeroing in on Miller before we push him up to the 80 catch level as a floor this year. That's right, a floor. If Miller can catch 66 balls and notch over 800 receiving yards with JaMarcus Russell as his QB for over half the year, imagine what he can do with merely competent QB play! Miller averaged six catches a game when QBs not named Russell started last year, expect that kind of production this year.
Sell High - WR/TE
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - He won't get cut, but Seattle sports radio personality Brock Huard was discussing the merits of cutting Houshmandzadeh, and that should tell you where he is on his career trajectory right now. Houshmandzadeh is nothing more than a possession receiver at this point, and as youngsters like Deon Butler and Golden Tate show they can handle more responsibility, expect Houshmandzadeh's role to diminish in prominence. Overlooked historically productive veteran WRs are usually great WR3/WR4 plays in PPR leagues, but there's a good reason Houshmandzadeh has been overlooked in drafts this year.
Greg Jennings - Jennings is a fine pick as a boom/bust WR2 with space shuttle sonic booms, but he was already inconsistent in the box score and on the field last year, and the expected emergence of Jermichael Finley will only create another obstacle to Jennings ability to put up WR1 fantasy numbers. Jennings in the mid-to-late third is a solid investment, but grabbing him in the second to be your lead wideout is a reach.
Marques Colston - Like Jennings, Colston is a top notch talent in his prime, sitting pretty in a big time passing attack, but he's just not consistent enough to trust as your #1. Colston had only one or two catches four times last year in the first 15 games, and with the return of a healthy Lance Moore, he is likely to put up a healthy amount of duds again this year. The year-end numbers might be strong, but counting on Colston to anchor your WR corps in the second round is ill-advised.
Steve Breaston - Derek Anderson might mean good things for Larry Fitzgerald's stock, but it still doesn't seem like this is a going to be a robust enough passing offense to create two strong fantasy plays. Somewhat counterintuitively, Breaston's ceiling is lower as the #2 with Anderson than it was with Warner as the #3. Look elsewhere for your upside WR4/WR5 play around the 9th/10th.
Brent Celek - Kevin Kolb is showing more signs of rough September than a rousing start to his first season as the franchise QB in Philadelphia, so Celek has become a no-man's land TE in the 6th/7th. With an investment of a pick only a round or two higher, you can have a Gates or Finley or Davis who will be a good bet to be in the top five TEs in any given week. Wait a round or three and you can get Zach Miller or Chris Cooley, who arguably have a ceiling close to Celek's with a high floor, too. Get a stud TE or wait for value later, but don't split the difference by making Celek the sixth TE off the board.
As always, thanks for reading. Questions, comments and suggestions are always welcome to bloom@footballguys.com.