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Backup Quarterbacks

  Posted 8/10 by Jason Wood - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

If any of you are wondering why NFL backup quarterbacks are worth paying attention to as you prepare for the 2009 fantasy football season, let me turn your attention to Matt Cassel. Last year, Cassel was about as far off the fantasy radar as humanly possible. Even though he was technically the Patriots backup, no one thought he could admirably step in for Tom Brady given the fact he hadn't started a game since high school But Brady got hurt in the first week and Cassel took over. Not only did he hold his own, he threw for 3,693 yards and 21 TDs, good enough to finish as the 8th best fantasy QB. A year later, Cassel finds himself in Kansas City, armed with a monster contract and the unquestioned starting job.

The NFL season is a grind, and QBs rarely manage to play the full slate. Over the last five years, on average only 15 QBs appear in all 16 games. What that means is your odds of having to start at least two, if not three, QBs over the course of your fantasy season are VERY HIGH.

Let's not forget that Matt Cassel isn't the only fantasy-worthy QB to start his career as a backup of little renown:

  • Kurt Warner, Arizona - Warner enters this season as a clear-cut fantasy stud and has two NFL MVPs to his credit, despite being a complete non-factor as a long shot Rams backup years ago. Were it not for an injury to Trent Green, Warner may never had stepped into an NFL huddle.

  • Tony Romo, Dallas - Fantasy owners paid ZERO attention to Tony Romo three years ago as Drew Bledsoe was coming off a top-10 fantasy season in Dallas. A month into the season, Romo took over and has emerged as one of the league's most productive passers two seasons running.

  • Tom Brady, New England - Speaking of Drew Bledsoe, were it not for an injury years ago, Brady might never have gotten into the Patriots lineup. Three Super Bowl rings, an MVP and the all-time single season TD record later; it appears that would've been an oversight.

The list certainly doesn't stop there, as players such as Tyler Thigpen, Shaun Hill and Seneca Wallace all contributed to fantasy teams' successes last year despite being backups.

With that idea as a backdrop, I want to call your attention to the projected backup QBs entering the 2009 season. With training camps underway, there's a good chance a few of these QBs will actually win starting jobs potentially, while others may fall another rung on the depth chart or suffer their outright release. A few of these players will be hyped enough that they may even get selected during your draft, but the majority are sure to go unnoticed on draft day. That doesn't mean you shouldn't be aware of them. Today's unknown backup could be tomorrow's fantasy stud.

Flip a Coin

These quarterbacks enter camp battling for the starting job. Usually in these situations, the backup is worth keeping an eye on because the chances are excellent they will see the field at some point in the year.

  • Shaun Hill vs. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers are starting anew in 2009, and are going back to their roots in a West Coast offense. Longtime NFL assistant Jimmy Raye will be calling the shots and that means a fierce camp battle between Alex Smith and Shaun Hill for the job. Hill enters camp with the leg up, thanks to a strong second half that coincided with Mike Singletary taking over the coaching reins. Hill is an accurate (64% career) passer who gets rid of the ball quickly, but is a bit skinny (6'5", 210 pounds) and there are some concerns about his durability (23 sacks in 8 starts last season). Meanwhile Smith, the former 1st overall pick, is a reclamation project coming back from shoulder surgery. But Smith is a high character guy and has shocked people by looking great this offseason in OTAs. If he can maintain that level of play during camp, it wouldn't be shocking to see him get the starting job back.

  • Byron Leftwich vs. Luke McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The tricky part of this 'battle' is that ultimately rookie Josh Freeman may be given a chance to displace both of them. But Freeman isn't a finished product and the Bucs are more likely to hand the ball either to team incumbent McCown or free agent Leftwich. McCown started four games as a rookie in Cleveland and then saw time in Tampa in 2007, but his career 1-6 record as a starter belies the faith his coaches have in him. His familiarity with the offense gives him a slight edge, as does his chemistry with WRs Michael Clayton and Antonio Bryant. But Byron Leftwich didn't sign in Tampa Bay to hold a clip board and his resume is certainly more polished. Leftwich has 46 career starts under his belt, and has compiled a winning record while throwing 54 TDs against 38 interceptions. At 6'5", 245 pounds, Leftwich is a big target who can be hard to bring down. Both McCown and Leftwich know their window of opportunity is short, and whichever one loses this camp battle is going to have a hard time latching on to another team in 2010-2011 with any hope of starting.

'Backups' for Now

These quarterbacks are listed as backups on the depth chart at press time, but could be inserted in the starting lineup by the opening kickoff. As such, these guys may even find their way onto fantasy rosters on draft day.

  • Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns - We're giving the nod to Brady Quinn right now because of familiarity with new OC Brian Daboll's system, but training camp will ultimately decide if Anderson can reclaim his job. Two years ago, Anderson was considered a long shot NFL prospect, a season ago he was thought to be a fantasy QB1, and now he's back to being undraftable unless he wins back the gig. Anderson has a tendency to make errant passes and if there's one thing that will get you benched in the Weis/Daboll system, it's poor decision-making. But, Brady Quinn is no proven commodity in the NFL either, and Anderson has shown that when he's hot, he can light up the scoreboard. Braylon Edwards enjoyed his monster season with Anderson throwing to him, and the coaches aren't going to discount that.

  • Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings - Brett Favre was all set to be the Vikings QB in 2009, until he wasn't. No team has less certainty at the position now than the Vikings, who put most, if not all, of their chips on a bet that a former division rival would give them one season of comeback greatness. Now the Vikings are trying to put lipstick on a pig and pretend that Tarvaris Jackson (who was set to be cut if Favre signed according to many reports) or Sage Rosenfels, a career backup who throws as many picks as Favre but nowhere near as many TDs, is the answer. Early in camp, it looks like the job is Rosenfels to lose, and Jackson's sprained MCL isn't helping matters. But facts are facts, Jackson has a lot of starting experience in this offense and did have a 9-to-2 TD:INT ratio last year in 5 starts.

Proven Commodities

These quarterbacks are firmly entrenched behind their respective starters, but if given an opportunity due to injury/circumstance, have proven they can be effective fantasy performers.

  • Michael Vick, To Be Determined - Is it cheating to have Vick on this list? Perhaps, but I'm writing the article and think he's too relevant to keep out of the conversation. Cleared to sign with a team, the rumor mill has several NFL teams expressing interest. Obviously his fantasy relevance hinges on where he signs, but you can be sure that as a backup option, he should be among the most coveted. Vick's off-the-charts athleticism and ability to make plays with his legs makes him a much more valuable fantasy player than real-life QB. Even though he's been out of the league serving a prison term, he's only 29 years old and appears to be in great shape. If he gets on the field, he becomes a legitimate fantasy starter in most leagues; particularly those who reward 4 points per passing TD versus 6 points for rushing TDs.

  • Jon Kitna, Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys struggled in 2008 when 40-year old Brad Johnson had to step in for an injured Tony Romo, which is why Jerry Jones acquired Jon Kitna this offseason. Kitna will be 37 years old in September, but is just two seasons removed from a starting job in Detroit. The important thing to remember about Kitna is that he's been a Top-10 fantasy QB for three different teams: Seattle in 1999, Cincinnati in 2003 and Detroit in 2006. He also has a rapport with Cowboys #1 Roy Williams, from their time with the Lions. He poses no threat to Tony Romo obviously, but if injury should open the door, Kitna steps into an offensive system that would make him a viable fantasy option in most weeks.

  • Tyler Thigpen, Kansas City Chiefs - Thigpen stepped into a difficult situation in Kansas City last year and, while his real-world performance left something to be desired (1-10 as a starter), his fantasy value was astounding. Thigpen was the 11th best fantasy QB in 2008 despite just 11 starts, thanks to a combination of his arm and his legs. Thigpen only completed 54.8% of his passes, but threw for 18 TDs against 12 interceptions. The Chiefs lack of weapons and porous offensive line forced him to break containment, and in turn he ran for 386 yards and 3 scores. The point being, Thigpen is the kind of multifaceted athlete who can light up a fantasy box score if he's put into the lineup. With a new coach (Todd Haley) in place, and a new franchise QB (Matt Cassel) signed, Thigpen is a long shot to ever reprise last year's heroics. But with the uncertain state of the Chiefs line and Matt Cassel's propensity to get sacked, it might not be long before the Chiefs have to turn their attention back to the freewheeling playmaker from Coastal Carolina.

  • Jeff Garcia, Oakland Raiders - Signing Jeff Garcia as a backup QB cuts both ways. On one hand, he's never shown a willingness to mentor a young starter and is immediately lobbying for a job. On the other hand, he's had a ton of success in the league and probably gives a team a good shot to win games when healthy. The Raiders don't want Garcia to see the field, but he's already arguing against handing the job to JaMarcus Russell without competing for it. Garcia is 39 years old and the Raiders are his 6th team in 7 seasons, but he continues to be a high completion QB who throws demonstrably more TDs than interceptions. It will take a lot for the Raiders to bench Russell, but Garcia would be someone worth rostering if he somehow gets the job by hook or by crook.

  • Seneca Wallace, Seattle Seahawks - This time last year we listed Wallace as an unproven commodity in a good system, but after starting 8 games last year in place of the injured Matt Hasselbeck, Wallace is more of a proven commodity. The good news is Wallace completed 58.3% of his passes, had a reasonable TD rate (4.5%) and led the league in interception rate (1.2%). The bad news is he averaged just 150 yards per game and a little over 1 TD pass, and contributed next to nothing with his legs; unexpected given his collegiate experience and time as a wide receiver. But with the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and the maturation of TE John Carlson, Wallace would be at the very worst a serviceable fantasy backup in the event Matt Hasselbeck gets hurt again.

Unproven, but in a Good System

These quarterbacks are largely unknown commodities by virtue of never getting a chance to play, however, because they play in successful systems and/or have impressive supporting casts, they could surprise if given the chance.

  • Chris Redman, Atlanta Falcons - Not to take anything away from Matt Ryan's outstanding rookie year, but anytime a rookie plays that well he had some help. The new coaching regime implemented a disciplined system and the personnel department found the right pieces. As a result, the offensive line is now a plus, the combination of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood can give opposing defenses fits, and the WR/TE tandem of Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez rivals any you will find in the league. Redman enters his 10th season with only 10 career starts, but has looked good in preseason action and has the trust of his coaches and teammates. With that supporting cast, Redman would be an intriguing waiver wire option should Matt Ryan be sidelined.

  • Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts -The 29-year old Sorgi has only thrown 156 passes in five seasons but has 6 TDs and only 1 INT to show for it. The good news is Sorgi understands the ins and outs of the Colts offense and would step into a proven system with great weapons and an above average pass-blocking unit. While we can't expect him to match Manning's performance in the event of injury, it also shouldn't surprise us if Sorgi were able to put up respectable fantasy stats in his own right.

  • Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins - Any system that can turn Chad Pennington into a Top-10 fantasy passer qualifies as a good system for the sake of this article. Sure, the Dolphins aren't going to chuck the ball around 600 times, but they do have a cadre of weapons and seemingly rebuilt the offensive line last year; it's now considered one of the league's better front fives. Henne may not be the QB of the present, but he is likely the Dolphins QB of the future. Chad Pennington's injury history is too expansive to count on 16 games played, which means Henne may well have the opportunity to throw to the likes of Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo, Anthony Fasano, Ronnie Brown and company. Once he gets into the lineup, he may not leave for years. One important note, rookie Pat White may be the active QB2 in most weeks, because of the team's plan to use White in the Wildcat formation. But Henne, not White, would be the starter in Pennington's absence, in our view.

  • Kevin O'Connell, New England Patriots - After last season you shouldn't need any convincing that the Patriots QB2 has immense fantasy value under the right circumstances. Matt Cassel finishes as the 8th best fantasy QB after Tom Brady's knee injury, and now Kevin O'Connell gets to step into Cassel's role. Brady is healthy again, but stranger things have happened and if O'Connell's number was called, he would have an arsenal at his disposal rivaled by few other QBs. Unlike Cassel, O'Connell was a productive collegiate starter and the Patriots used a 3rd round pick last year to secure his services. At 6'5", 225 pounds, he has the same build and makeup that turned Brady into a star. You can never count on an unproven backup producing, but after last season you can also be sure that O'Connell will be THE waiver wire commodity any week the injury bug opens the door for him.

  • Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles - Midway through the Eagles game against the Ravens last year, it appeared the Kevin Kolb Era was about to get underway. Donovan McNabb was benched in favor of the 2nd year signal caller, but fair or not, Kolb wasn't given the most opportune opponent to displace McNabb. In a half of football, Kolb went 10-of-23 for 73 yards and 2 interceptions; which in turn led to McNabb getting his job back the following week. McNabb and the Eagles went on to a strong finish, the NFC Championship game and ultimately McNabb got more financial security and is firmly entrenched as the Eagles QB for 2009. Now Kolb is in the curious of position of waiting in vain. But McNabb hasn't had the best luck with injuries, so Kolb may not be as far away from a 2nd chance as some think. If he does get a shot, the Eagles have arguably the best offensive supporting cast under the Andy Reid era. Kevin Curtis is healthy again, DeSean Jackson looks to pick up where he left off, rookie Jeremy Maclin is a home-run threat, and RB LeSean McCoy looks like a young Brian Westbrook. Kolb is a high risk option, but he could put up big numbers if "5" gets hurt again.

Experienced Veterans

These backups are experienced NFL quarterbacks who have been productive in the past but probably have seen their best days, but are nevertheless one injury away from a chance at a renaissance.

  • Josh McCown, Carolina Panthers - Josh McCown has started 31 games in seven seasons, the majority as an Arizona Cardinal. Once compared to Brett Favre by Dennis Green, those comparisons seem silly in retrospect. But McCown can still help a team like the Panthers win games if Jake Delhomme got hurt for a few weeks. McCown is an exceptional athlete and can escape a pass rush better than most backups. He's also steeled himself playing in some untenable situations as a Cardinal, Raider and Lion. With WR Steve Smith and the league's most potent rushing attack, McCown would be a reasonable spot starter in weeks where the strength of schedule favors the Panthers offense.

  • David Carr, New York Giants - It's not often a team that starts a 1st overall draft choice has the luxury of backing him up with another 1st overall draft choice. But the Giants are such a team as David Carr, the one-time franchise cornerstone of the Houston Texans, has found a home as Eli Manning's backup. After a forgettable stint in Carolina, Carr really took to his Gotham surroundings. He only threw 12 passes last year (Manning is an iron man) but completed 9 passes for 115 yards and 2 TDs in that very limited action. He's smart, finally plays behind a great offensive line, and is accurate. If he gets to play because of a Manning injury, it wouldn't shock anyone to see him have a few decent weeks. But remember, even Eli Manning is a middling fantasy starter given their system and the lack of star receivers, so don't get too excited by Carr no matter what his playing time looks like.

  • Mark Brunell, New Orleans Saints - Brunell will be 39 years old this season, and may be the most accomplished backup in the league With 150 career starts, and a nearly 2-to-1 TD:INT ratio, Brunell has been around the block, and excelled. He hasn't seen meaningful game action since his 2006 season in Washington, but sits comfortably behind All World Drew Brees; which is a great place to be. We can't imagine Brunell would come close to matching Brees' productivity in his stead, but even if he was only 2/3rds as productive, Brunell would be a quality spot starter. With a cadre of weapons and a plug and play system, he's a backup worth bidding for if Brees gets hurt.

  • Charlie Batch, Pittsburgh Steelers - Batch is 3-1 as a starter in Pittsburgh and knows the system inside and out. While Batch is no guarantee to beat out Dennis Dixon for the backup job, we'll assume he reprises his role as Ben Roethlisberger's backup for at least another season. Batch has thrown 8 TDs against 4 INTs as a Steeler and the coaches wouldn't hesitate to let Batch execute the entirety of the playbook if he needed to step behind center. With the number of hits the OL leaves Big Ben exposed to, Batch is a good bet to start one or two games each year; and would be a compelling emergency fantasy option as a result.

  • Billy Volek, San Diego Chargers - Volek is 33 years old and enters his 4th season as the Chargers backup. He's only attempted 12 regular season passes in the last three seasons and really only has one season (2004 in Tennessee) of any renown. But he knows the Chargers system inside and out, and could surprise if he was called upon. Volek isn't someone fantasy owners should get excited about if Rivers gets hurt, at least not until you see him prove it on the field for a week or two.

  • Kyle Boller, St. Louis Rams - Marc Bulger hasn't been a great QB in a long time, but fantasy owners forget that. While the new look Rams are clearly hoping Bulger will regain form, Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense is a far cry from Mike Martz' wide open 'Greatest Show on Turf.' Bulger is coming back from a 2008 season he would like to forget, and the Rams are hardly guaranteed to be improved. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Kyle Boller takes the field at some point in 2009. The question is, should fantasy owners care? After missing all of the 2008 season with a bum shoulder, and going 2-6 for Baltimore in 2007, Boller needed a fresh start. He's no more naturally suited to the WCO than Bulger, but is the kind of QB who looks great in practice and ultimately gets more serious consideration from coaches than we fantasy owners might think. The Rams have question marks in the receiving corps and are rebuilding the O-line, so tread carefully with Boller (or Bulger for that matter).

The Rookies

These rookies have a bright future with their teams, and almost certainly will get a shot to start down the road, but may not be very good fantasy options this year despite the hype.

  • Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - When you're the 1st overall pick of the league's first 0-16 team and signed to a $72mm contract, you aren't expected to sit for long. Yet, many of the league's best QBs didn't play right away and there are a lot of reasons to think Stafford would be better served to learn from the sidelines at least for part of the season. Stafford is a prototypical pocket passer with the arm to make any throw, and he'll be the centerpiece of the Lions rebuilding project; throwing to Calvin Johnson and TE Brandon Pettigrew for years to come. But for now, Daunte Culpepper has to be considered the favorite. He's experienced, he's inexpensive, and he flourished playing in this same system for Scott Linehan while both were in Minnesota. Fantasy owners will keep an eye on Stafford though, particularly after the success both Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco had last season.

  • Mark Sanchez, New York Jets - The Jets made a bold move to trade up for Mark Sanchez, the latest USC golden boy to be handed the keys to an NFL franchise. Sanchez is being paid $60mm (including incentives) with $28mm in guarantees to turn the Jets into an AFC East powerhouse again. His USC pedigree speaks for itself, and it will take a lot for him to stay behind Kellen Clemens for long. In all honesty, the early training camp reports have Sanchez and Clemens neck and neck, which would have to favor Sanchez in picking a Week One starter. If he starts, he'll have a number of young weapons including Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller, as well as a decent offensive line. You could do worse.

  • Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Unlike both Stafford and Sanchez, it would be a surprise to see Josh Freeman on the field in 2009. Freeman has not one, but two veterans ahead of him on the depth chart. Freeman is a huge, athletic kid with a monster arm. And he has history with Bucs head coach Raheem Morris from their time at Kansas State, but Freeman isn't a polished passer yet and really could use a season or two or three to watch a veteran execute the job.

Backup Battles

It seems that many teams, more so than normal, enter the preseason with an uncertain backup situation. For some teams, it's a matter of finding the lesser of two evils. For other teams, it's about determining whether to opt for the veteran or the youngster. And lastly for a few teams, it's a matter of playing out the string, realizing that neither of the options is ideal, and bringing in a veteran to plug the dam.

  • Matt Leinart vs. Brian St. Pierre, Arizona Cardinals - The fact this is even a battle tells you how disappointing Matt Leinart's career has been so far. A year ago, in this very article, Leinart was considered the starter and Kurt Warner the veteran backup. My how things can change. Now Leinart, who has questions about his healthy, worth ethic and maturity, needs a strong camp to hold off journeyman Brian St. Pierre. St. Pierre has been a QB3 in Pittsburgh and Arizona for most of his career, knows Ken Whisenhunt's system, and is a model citizen on and off the field. The odds still favor Leinart here on sheer talent. Obviously, Leinart is more than capable of a successful NFL career, but he'll need to claw his way back and the first step is winning this camp battle.

  • Caleb Hanie vs. Brett Basanez, Chicago Bears - The Bears really don't have a backup plan in case of an injury to Jay Cutler. But someone has to be the QB2 and entering camp Basanez and Hanie will alternate snaps with the 2nd stringers. Both were undrafted free agents, Basanez first signed with Carolina in 2006 whereas Hanie made the Bears roster last season. It's unclear whether either would represent fantasy value in the event of a Cutler injury, and would likely instead throw water on the rest of the Bears offensive prospects.

  • Matt Flynn vs. Brian Brohm, Green Bay Packers - The Packers drafted both Brohm (2nd round) and Flynn (7th round) last year in order to add depth behind new starter Aaron Rodgers. Conventional wisdom called for Brohm, the high draft pick out of Louisville, to be the starter and potentially showcase him as a trade commodity in a season or two. Yet, it was Flynn who won the QB2 job with a much stronger training camp. This year both are back on even footing as the team hopes Brohm can show the combination of physical strength and solid mechanics that once had NFL scouts viewing him as a high first round prospect.

  • Dan Orlovsky vs. Rex Grossman, Houston Texans - Both Orlovsky and Grossman have starting experience, and neither is the better for it. Orlovsky started a portion of the 2008 season in Detroit, and will now carry the stain of an 0-16 record with him forever. At 6'5", 238 pounds, Orlovsky is a mountainous QB who has raw skills but may lack the polish needed to execute the Texans West Coast offense. Grossman, meanwhile, needs no introduction. Every year Bears fans would wonder if somehow, some way, Grossman would finally harness his astounding physical ability and mechanics into on-the-field excellence. It never happened and how his best chance at another starting job will be to beat out Orlovsky and wait for a chance to play in place of an injured Matt Schaub.

  • Vince Young vs. Patrick Ramsey, Tennessee Titans - Vince Young was the 12th ranked fantasy QB as a rookie. Granted, much of that came as a runner, but fantasy owners will take their points however they can get them. The sky was the limit for the 3rd overall pick until a series of bizarre incidents changed his career trajectory. His depression and confidence issues opened the door for Kerry Collins last year, and a 13-3 record assured Collins the job again this year. Now Young has to battle journeyman Patrick Ramsey for the active QB2 spot. If he can't displace Ramsey, one has to wonder if Young will be on a different team in 2010.

  • Todd Collins vs. Colt Brennan, Washington Redskins - Todd Collins had valuable experience in Al Saunders' offensive system; joining the Redskins when Saunders came over from Kansas City. But these days the Redskins utilize Jim Zorn's classic West Coast offense, and Collins is really a fish out of water as a 37-year old. Meanwhile Colt Brennan, the record-setting collegiate passer from Hawaii, has big aspirations but wasn't considered an NFL caliber starter by most draft scouts. Yet, as a rookie Brennan played well in the preseason and that's earned him a legitimate shot to back up Jason Campbell. Brennan has a fast release and makes good decisions, although his 6'2", 207-pound frame isn't well suited to take a pounding.

Other Backups

These quarterbacks are the least likely to help your fantasy team this year, because they have either proven to be mediocre, injury prone or would be taking the helm of an unproductive NFL offense if given the starting nod.

  • Troy Smith, Baltimore Ravens - Some people might think I'm selling Smith short to lump him in the "Other" category, but his circumstances took a decided turn for the worst last April when the Ravens drafted Joe Flacco. Flacco not only started as a rookie, but led the Ravens to the playoffs and is now firmly entrenched as the QB of the present and future. What's not clear is whether the Ravens offensive supporting cast is compelling enough to think Smith has sleeper potential in the off chance Flacco gets hurt. In two seasons, Smith has completed 53.8% of his passes and thrown 3 TDs, but isn't without skills. Were it not for some maladies, Smith might have won the starting job two seasons ago in his own rookie year and circumstances might be very different.

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills - Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably one of the smartest players in the league. A Harvard man, Fitzpatrick obviously will have no trouble learning the Bills playbook in his first season in Buffalo, but that's about where the platitudes end. For someone of limited physical aptitude, Fitzpatrick has carved out a decent NFL career that includes starting stints in both St. Louis and Cincinnati. His 3 starts as a rookie are best left forgotten, but he actually started the majority of the 2008 season in place of Carson Palmer. Fitzpatrick has only thrown a whopping 12 TDs in 507 attempts against 17 interceptions; which is as much about his limited arms strength as poor reads. Last year, Fitzpatrick was sacked 9.3% of his snaps, which bodes ill if he needs to play in Buffalo; a team that will start new players at all five OL positions.

  • J.T. O'Sullivan, Cincinnati Bengals - J.T. O'Sullivan owes Mike Martz a debt of gratitude. He showed enough in Martz' system in Detroit to earn a shot at major playing time in San Francisco, and that culminated in 8 starts last season. Unfortunately O'Sullivan didn't do much with those 8 games, throwing 8 TDs against 11 interceptions while completing 58% of his passes. O'Sullivan now replaces the aforementioned Ryan Fitzpatrick in Cincinnati. Considering Carson Palmer's history of season-ending injuries, O'Sullivan isn't a bad bet to see the field and has great receiving weapons at his disposal, but the fact few NFL scouts consider O'Sullivan a high quality starter outside of Mike Martz' system should give fantasy owners pause.

  • Chris Simms, Denver Broncos - Broncos new head coach Josh McDaniels quickly named Kyle Orton the starter in order to avoid camp controversy, but he hasn't completely closed the door on Simms, either. While Orton has shown glimpses of productivity, he's not a gifted quarterback and it would be foolhardy to think he's incapable of losing his hold on the job with a difficult camp or, more likely, early season struggles. Simms has gotten a bad rap over the years thanks to a series of injuries; but he has all the physical tools to thrive in the NFL.

  • Todd Bouman, Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars may ultimately find someone else to back up David Garrard, but at press time Bouman is slated for the QB2 slot. Bouman is the prototypical journeyman. He's 37 years old and has a grand total of 230 career attempts. A career 56% passer, Bouman is an immobile pocket passer who would be at high risk behind a rebuilding offensive line in Jacksonville.