On Second Thought...Wide Receivers
Posted 8/31 by Jason Wood, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
It's hard to believe that we're just a few weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have to have the entire league modeled and projected by early May (for our magazine). Needless to say, a LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations as we go along. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight in a qualitative manner the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.
On Second Thought...
...Terrell Owens (BUF) makes me nervous
Terrell Owens is a surefire Hall of Famer and has always been a fantasy stud. I expected his presence in Buffalo to be nothing but positive for QB Trent Edwards, WR Lee Evans and the rest of the supporting cast, and I comfortably penciled in Owens for another 1,100+ yard, 10+ TD season. But the Bills offensive line (5 new starters), Edwards lack of pedigree and, most importantly, Owens' troublesome toe give me pause. I would still roll the dice on Owens as my WR2 if he fell on draft day, but would no longer comfortably draft him as my WR1.
...Brandon Marshall (DEN) isn't going to toe the line
Anyone that catches 100+ passes in consecutive seasons is good enough to overcome most on-field challenges. Even though I've been down on Josh McDaniels and Kyle Orton from the start (and remain so), I assumed Marshall was too talented not to rack up solid fantasy numbers. But Marshall can't seem to get out of his own way. Having been cleared of legal wrongdoing, it didn't take long for Marshall to be insubordinate in practice, landing a suspension. As I type this, Marshall is still eligible to play all 16 games. But this situation has a high probability of turning untenable and, as a result, I have to think twice before drafting Marshall as my WR2 at his current ADP.
...Devin Hester (CHI) and Earl Bennett are both worth drafting at their current ADPs
For as excited as I was about Jay Cutler's opportunity in Chicago, I was skeptical of Devin Hester's role. While it's clear to me he lacks the polish required to be a true WR1, he's shown enough of a rapport with Cutler to make me think he's worth drafting as a high upside fantasy backup. As your WR4, and bye week fill in, I like him because he's going to connect with a handful of deep TDs care of Cutler's monster arm. I was already high on Earl Bennett, but if anything have increased my enthusiasm for him particularly in PPR leagues.
...Bernard Berrian (MIN) will be a Top 20 WR again
I was skeptical of Berrian's ability to match last year's WR17 finish, because he benefited from an unsustainable 20+ yards per reception average. But with Brett Favre in town, I'm now fully onboard the Berrian Express, and think he'll have an easy time shattering his prior career highs for receptions and, quite possibly, touchdowns.
...I'm a believer in Josh Morgan (SF)
This is a case of my coming around to the consensus. With Isaac Bruce coming off a terrific 2008 (833 yards and 7 TDs) and the 49ers drafting Michael Crabtree, I wasn't sold on the idea Josh Morgan could or would emerge as the 49ers top receiver. But Crabtree's ridiculous hold out and Morgan's more-than-exemplary play in camp has swung me around. I now expect Morgan to deliver, at worst, solid WR4 numbers and, at best, a true breakout season that hinges mainly on whether QB Shaun Hill can string a productive 16 games together.
...Chris Henry (CIN) is going to eat into Laveranues Coles' targets
I've always been a fan of Laveranues Coles; he's a steady professional who doesn't shy away from contact, has good hands, and thrives in the red zone. So when Cincinnati gave Coles big dollars to replace T.J. Houshmandzadeh, I gave little thought to former malcontent Chris Henry. But the simple truth is Henry has always had elite talent, and he's made the evidently clear this preseason. I'm not sure if Henry will displace Coles as a starter, but I can't see how he won't take away touches. At their respective ADPs, that makes me favor Henry and want to avoid Coles.
...Donnie Avery (STL) is a great value
As the only WR on the Rams assured of a role with Torry Holt released, Donnie Avery was a very popular sleeper pick. Although I expected him to be their top target, I wasn't sure the Rams offense would be dynamic enough for Avery to put up Top 20 numbers, yet many fantasy owners expected that kind of breakout. But a broken foot and the potential to miss time into the regular season dropped his ADP considerably. Avery has quietly returned to practice but his ADP hasn't started to creep back up. If you can draft him in the 8th or 9th round because your owners still think he's hurt, I love his upside. But if by the time you draft owners are back targeting him as a WR2, I would pass.
...Torry Holt (JAX) is no longer a true WR1
I've had great success over the years targeting veteran WRs who fantasy owners forgo in false pursuit of the unproven youngsters. When Holt signed in Jacksonville, a team desperate for WR help, I though he stood a great chance at being a Top 15-20 option. While I still expect Holt to lead the Jaguars in catches, I no longer think he's physically capable of dominating opposing defensive backs with regularity. The good news is Holt's ADP doesn't require a leap of faith, and he still offers solid value as one of your top backups at the position.
...David Clowney (NYJ) is going to start opposite Jerricho Cotchery
The Jets have two clear-cut weapons in the passing game: Jerricho Cotchery and TE Dustin Keller. I thought Chansi Stuckey would be the starter opposite Cotchery, but a strong preseason has vaulted David Clowney into that role. Clowney, a Virginia Tech alum who played alongside Eddie Royal, is the Jets top deep threat and should benefit from a handful of deep throws from Mark Sanchez.
...you need to keep your eyes on Deon Butler (SEA)
I'm not generally a proponent of endorsing rookie receivers, but certainly there are a few each year who prove worthy of being on your roster. While a lot of attention is being put on the likes of Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt and Brian Robiskie but precious little is being said about Deon Butler. The Seahawks were starting their 6th and 7th string WRs a year ago, and Butler is only an injury to Nate Burleson away from starting on a pass-efficient, WCO team with a quality QB. Butler has caught everything thrown his way and has produced big-time in preseason game reps with the 1st unit. If you're in a league that goes 6-7 WRs deep, Butler is someone that should be on your short list for the end game.
...I still don't know who is going to catch passes in Cleveland
My projections for Cleveland's receiving corps have changed markedly over the preseason, but the end result is the same, I don't have any confidence in who plays opposite Braylon Edwards. For a time it seemed Mohamed Massaquoi was in line for the job. Then veteran Mike Furrey was getting press. Now Brian Robiskie appears to be moving up the ladder after a slow start. At this point, I don't think any of them are worth a roster spot in standard-sized leagues.
...I still don't know who is going to catch passes in Miami
Honestly folks, is there anyone that thinks Ted Ginn is a real WR1? And yet he's the surest thing in the WR corps. Greg Camarillo was the hot sleeper pick early in the preseason, and he gave way to Davone Bess, who gave way to rookie Patrick Turner, who in turn has given way to rookie Brian Hartline. Confused? I sure am, and ultimately I don't know that any of it matters to fantasy owners except in the deepest of leagues.
...I still don't know who is going to catch passes in Oakland
Let's be honest, Chaz Schilens' strong play was music to our ears. After not having any idea who - besides TE Zach Miller and RB Darren McFadden - was going to catch passes from JaMarcus Russell, it appeared Schilens was the sleeper. But his recent injury clouds his fantasy prospects and reopens the door for everyone else. Is Javon Walker really a non factor? Can rookies Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy stick in the lineup? Is Johnnie Lee Higgins reliable enough to play in the slot regularly?
...Plaxico Burress isn't going to suit up this year, but Matt Jones will
In our mock draft for the Footballguys magazine, I drafted Plaxico Burress late and thought I was making one of the savviest moves of the night. I figured he would be suspended no more than three or four games and would be the #1 target for some team over the final three months. Obviously I was dead wrong, as Burress pleaded guilty and faces 2 years in prison. Meanwhile Matt Jones, who I thought was blackballed, is on the verge of signing with a team. Go figure.