On Second Thought...Tight Ends
Posted 8/31 by Jason Wood, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
It's hard to believe that we're just a few weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have to have the entire league modeled and projected by early May (for our magazine). Needless to say, a LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations as we go along. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight in a qualitative manner the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.
On Second Thought...
...Antonio Gates (SD) has his explosiveness back
A year ago I advised caution about Antonio Gates health and made the point he shouldn't have been a no-brainer as the 1st TE off the board. This year, I was ready to make that call again after Gates commented that his toe was still hurting after OTAs. But he's been the pillar of health throughout training camp, and looks explosive again. If Gates was still hurting, the Chargers would've taken it easier on him in camp. A healthy Gates is 2nd only to Jason Witten among fantasy TEs, and he should be drafted shortly after Witten comes off the board.
...I wouldn't draft Kellen Winslow (TE) as my starter
Kellen Winslow was solidly in my Top 5 to start this season. After being traded to the Bucs and given a monster contract extension, it seemed clear Tampa Bay planned on building the passing attack around Winslow and WR Antonio Bryant. While that remains true, there is just way too much uncertainty in Tampa to bet on Winslow as an elite producer. The coaches are unproven. The QB situation is unsettled. The RB situation is unsettled. We're not even sure what kind of scheme they're going to run yet. Let someone else use a 6th or 7th round pick on Winslow.
...there are a few 'backup' TEs worth keeping on your fantasy radar
Normally it would be fantasy fool's gold to draft a TE that doesn't even start for his NFL team, but this year might be an exception. Martellus Bennett (DAL) could very well be the Cowboys 2nd best receiver behind Jason Witten, and the Cowboys are going to make liberal use of 2-TE sets. Bennett emerged as an impact red zone weapon in his rookie year, and has been nearly unstoppable in camp and preseason. He's worth considering as a high upside TE2 in deeper leagues, and would be a star in the making if Jason Witten got hurt. In Green Bay, Donald Lee looks to remain a starter, a testament to his blocking abilities. But 2nd year Jermichael Finley has been the toast of the preseason and on an offense that will throw a ton, he could quietly put up great numbers particularly in leagues that don't worry about points per reception.
...Brent Celek (PHI) does have fantasy value
As an Eagles season ticket holder, I've seen every snap of Bent Celek's career and just wasn't buying the idea he would be a fantasy contributor. He's among the least athletic starting TEs in the NFL and I didn't think he would be more than an occasional move-the-chains option for Donovan McNabb. But with rookie sensation Cornelius Ingram tearing up his ACL, and the Eagles failing to add viable competition in free agency, Celek becomes the starter by default. And any starter in that passing attack is worth a roster spot, particularly in PPR leagues. I don't see Celek as a Top 10 option, but he's worth having as a backup.
...Jared Cook (TEN) is going to contribute, much to the chagrin of Bo Scaife owners
Jared Cook was considered by many to be the most athletically gifted TE in the April draft, but when the Titans selected him, it seemed he would need a year or two to work into the lineup. With Bo Scaife receiving the Titans franchise tag designation, and Alge Crumpler providing excellent in-line blocking, Cook needed to make an indelible impression in camp to gain PT in 2009. And he's done just that. As a result, you have to discount Bo Scaife's chances of repeating last year's numbers (58 catches, 561 yards).
...Randy McMichael (STL) can stay off your draft board
I initially thought Randy McMichael could emerge as a solid fantasy TE2 this year thanks to the implementation of OC Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense combined with the Rams lack of proven WR talent. But McMichael is 30 years old, Marc Bulger is banged up, and I see a high train wreck potential for the entire passing attack. If I'm going to roll the dice on a sleeper at TE, it's going to be someone young who has elite breakout potential, not a grizzled veteran trying to scrape together one more respectable campaign.
...Jeremy Shockey (NO) could have a bounce back season
Jeremy Shockey didn't figure highly in my first iteration of projections, figuring his lack of productivity last year and the plethora of weapons in New Orleans made it unlikely Shockey would be relevant in 2009. But that was unfair. He benefits this year from an entire offseason and training camp with the team, is healthy, and has looked good. Sometimes we forget that Shockey has been a Top 10 fantasy TE four times, and finished TE11 twice more. With the Saints explosive attack, Shockey won't get the consistent looks he did in New York, but he should be considered a solid TE2 in 10- and 12-team leagues.
...Gary Barnidge will be the top TE in Carolina
The combination of Dante Rosario and Jeff King were hardly exciting fantasy prospects, but they did seem ready to reprise their roles as the co-starters on a Panthers team that rarely made use of the position in the passing game. But 2nd year Gary Barnidge (5th round, Louisville) has quietly outproduced both and looks poised to emerge as a starter.
...Alex Smith isn't going to be the sleeper TE in New England
When New England acquired Alex Smith from Tampa Bay, I thought his natural athleticism would allow him to overtake Ben Watson as the Patriots top TE. But this preseason it's become clear Smith is not only in the hunt to start, he may not make the team. It's Chris Baker, the Jets former starter, that has emerged as the sleeper, particularly in TD-heavy scoring formats.