On Second Thought...Running Backs
Posted 8/31 by Jason Wood, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
It's hard to believe that we're just a few weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have to have the entire league modeled and projected by early May (for our magazine). Needless to say, a LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations as we go along. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight in a qualitative manner the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.
On Second Thought...
...LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) has [at least] one Top 5 season left in him
Not prone to hyperbole, when HC Norv Turner said he expects Tomlinson to challenge for the league rushing title, I hope you took note. I also hope you noticed when Turner said Darren Sproles primary role will be on special teams. I realize it's a scary proposition to bet on a 30+ year old back to bounce back after a down year, but if there is ever someone worthy betting on; it's future Hall of Famer L.T. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he finishes this season as a Top 3 player, don't be afraid of him if you have a mid first round choice.
...Ray Rice (BAL) will get a lot of work, but at Le'Ron McClain's expense not Willis McGahee's
A lot of people (myself included) looked at the combined talents of Ray Rice and Le'Ron McClain and assumed Willis McGahee's days as an integral part of the Ravens offense were numbered. But McGahee seems to have taken Ray Rice's increased role as a challenge, and is in better shape and more committed than we've seen in years. Meanwhile Le'Ron McClain continues to see nearly all his reps at the fullback position. It's looking more likely that Rice and McGahee split the majority of the touches, while McClain is an afterthought barring injury.
...Joseph Addai (IND) still has value
My enthusiasm for Donald Brown combined with my dismay at Addai's lengthy injury history had me convinced Brown would be the mainstay in that system quickly. But Addai has looked sharp this preseason and is running with power and no sign of lingering injury. While I still think Brown is the better player and will ultimately be the Colts feature runner, it looks like Addai will get the heavier workload at least to open the season.
...Kevin Smith (DET) is going to catch a boatload of passes
Kevin Smith helped me win a number of leagues as a rookie, and the Lions brought no one credible aboard to challenge his full-time role. But I wasn't particularly high on him at the start of the preseason, particularly in PPR leagues, because I wondered if he would catch many passes. But that was an oversight on my part, for two reasons. One, he's been fluid and productive as a receiver last year and in this preseason. Two, Matthew Stafford and/or Daunte Culpepper are going to need him as an outlet when Calvin Johnson is blanketed downfield.
...Leon Washington (NYJ) could be a much bigger offensive force than most realize
Leon Washington is viewed by most as a complementary back to the 20+ carry load Thomas Jones shoulders. But the organization's outspoken interest in signing Washington to a long-term contract extension combined with what we've seen from Washington in camp and in preseason action has me believing the touches are going to be more evenly split than most realize. In PPR leagues, Washington is being drafted later than he should be, don't forget that.
...Knowshon Moreno (DEN) won't be a workhorse out of the gates
Every year a number of rookie RBs make a huge fantasy impact, and I thought Knowshon Moreno was the most likely to do so in 2009. The Broncos used a high first round pick on him and a new coaching regime seemed ready to build the offense around the ground attack. Although I still think that's the plan in Denver, Moreno has been hobbled this preseason while Correll Buckhalter and Peyton Hillis have looked more than capable of making plays. When the dust settles, I still think Moreno will have the best numbers in Denver, but I'm beginning to think HC Josh McDaniels is so enamored with his former mentor that every week it'll be a different RB (or RBs) that stars.
...Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) is no threat to Willie Parker
It seems everyone is worried that Willie Parker will lose all of his valuable touches (i.e., goal line looks) to 2nd year Rashard Mendenhall. My original projections reflected a similar concern, but I continue to reduce my expectations for Mendenhall as the preseason wears on. He may be a big, powerful back, but the Steelers are using Isaac Redman as a goalline specialist in the preseason, not Mendenhall. As long as Parker is healthy, I think he'll get a chance to be a 3-down back the majority of the time.
...Pierre Thomas (NO) is good, but he's not a Top 12 option
I feel like the contrarian when it comes to Pierre Thomas. I was early to make the case he had Top 12 potential this year based on his strong showing in the final six weeks of 2008 combined with New Orleans decision not to draft anyone of note at the position. While I still think Thomas will lead the Saints in rushing, I now like him less as a value because he's become THE hot RB2 pick it seems. Counting on him as your RB2 is a lot different than drafting him as an RB3/RB4 and thinking he's going to surprise. Plus, Mike Bell has looked great, and I can see the Saints frustrating fantasy owners by using Bell + Bush + Thomas liberally.
...Cadillac Williams (TB) isn't an afterthought in Tampa Bay
I've been relatively high on Derrick Ward and relatively sour on Earnest Graham all preseason, figuring Ward would get at least 50% of the rushes and the vast majority of the receptions. I also figured Cadillac Williams would start the season on the PUP list or be waived. Flash forward to last week's preseason game and Williams not only played, he got the start (and looked great). Now the coaches are saying Williams is going to have a major role, which means a true 3-headed monster in Tampa. I would be circumspect about drafting either Ward or Graham at their current ADPs.
...Tim Hightower (ARI) isn't completely worthless this year
I'm a Beanie Wells fan, and when the Cardinals drafted him I figured that put a merciful end to Tim Hightower's career as an NFL starter. Averaging less than 3 yards per carry is rarely done, and it's even rarer still for that back to keep his job the following year. But Wells has missed considerable time in the preseason while Hightower came into camp stronger and more decisive than a season ago. I still think Wells is the more valuable Cardinal, but at least to start the season Hightower is going to get a lot of touches, including the all-important goal line looks.
...Edgerrin James (SEA) will lead the Seahawks in rushing
I'm not surprised Edgerrin James signed with Seattle. I am surprised so many people think Julius Jones is going to keep him off the field. James may not be an elite runner anymore, but he's still demonstrably better at nearly every facet of the game than Jones, who was in line for a lot of carries by default. The coaches aren't handing James the job, rightfully so, but by Week Five I would be shocked if James isn't getting the majority of the work.
...I still don't believe in Cedric Benson (CIN) but I can't see who is going to vulture carries either
Kenny Watson was waived, and rookie Bernard Scott hasn't looked like a viable alternative to the plodding Benson. I still don't believe he can do much on a per touch basis, but he may be in line for 300+ touches by default. There's value in that, particularly in non-PPR leagues.
...James Davis (CLE) is worth drafting ahead of his ADP to make sure you land him
James Davis may have been a 6th round draft pick, but the Clemson Tiger has an attacking, power game that is directly comparable to Jamal Lewis. The difference is Davis is young and inexpensive, while Lewis is at the downslope of his career. A lot of fantasy owners view Jerome Harrison as the 'handcuff' but I think it's clear that Davis will be the guy to take 15-20 carries a game if Lewis gets hurt. We've seen Davis' ability show up in preseason game action, which is a shame because he's now being viewed as a sleeper, whereas you could've had him in the last round of most drafts even two weeks ago. But don't fear, he's worth paying up for, particularly if you drafted Lewis.
...Laurence Maroney (NE) shouldn't be discounted completely
To say Laurence Maroney was disappointing last year would be akin to saying Peyton Manning is kind of a good quarterback. But a severe shoulder injury (that we didn't know about) helps clear up that picture a bit. Yes, the Patriots use a lot of different backs in a committee. And yes, Fred Taylor was brought in and has a chance for a Corey Dillon-esque season. But remember, Maroney is only 24 years old while Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk are all 30+ years old.