On Second Thought...Quarterbacks
Posted 8/31 by Jason Wood, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
It's hard to believe that we're just a few weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have to have the entire league modeled and projected by early May (for our magazine). Needless to say, a LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations as we go along. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight in a qualitative manner the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.
On Second Thought...
...Tom Brady (NE) is the top fantasy QB
This isn't an Earth-shattering revelation but coming off a missed season, I was leaning toward Drew Brees as the top fantasy signal caller. But a ridiculously strong preseason has me believing. Presuming Brady's shoulder is fine (and all signs say it will be), I could see Brady coming off the board as early as the late 1st round, but should certainly be someone's 2nd round pick.
...Aaron Rodgers (GB) is in a tier by himself
Rodgers is coming off a QB2 season and has always been in my list of QB1s for 2009. But as the preseason has shaken out, I now consider Rodgers in his own elite tier right behind the trio of Brady, Brees and Manning. Rodgers is going in the same round (on average) as Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers; but in my view he deserves to be the 4th option off the board well ahead of them or anyone else. His offensive line looks fine, his receiving corps is obscenely deep, Jermichael Finley gives him two quality TEs, and the RB situation will provide balance. A recipe for greatness.
...I would avoid Kurt Warner (ARI) unless he falls in drafts
Kurt Warner remains in my Top 8, but he's the one QB1 I'm most nervous about. At 38 years old, with a bum hip and an offensive line I'm concerned about, it's hard for me to not see Warner as an elevated injury risk. It could be alarmist, but for my money I'm passing on Warner at his ADP (4th round) in favor of either Aaron Rodgers or value at another position.
...Tony Romo (DAL) is going to be just fine without Terrell Owens
I worried that Tony Romo couldn't perform as a QB1 without Terrell Owens, particularly when the Cowboys were counting on Roy Williams to replace him. Although I still don't feel great about Williams, he has been better in the last few weeks and will play a role. But more importantly, the emergence of TE Martellus Bennett and Romo's ability to spread the ball around to whomever lines up with him makes me think he can be a fantasy Top 10 passer again in 2009.
...The Lions are in good hands offensively
Scott Linehan was the offensive coach who turned Daunte Culpepper into a star, and they're reunited in Detroit. Culpepper's chance to compete for a starting job against the 1st overall pick has worked wonders, as he's much fitter than we've seen him in years, and has looked poised and accurate throughout the preseason. Meanwhile Stafford has shown enough as a rookie that you can feel good about the Lions if he does replace Culpepper. Stafford will struggle as all rookie QBs do with turnovers, but I think he's talented enough to keep the fantasy prospects of Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith intact.
...Brett Favre (MIN) really is coming out of retirement
On again, off again, back on again. Such is the soap opera that has become Brett Favre's career. The dust has settled and he's the Vikings starter come <bleep> or high water. I would've had no problem slotting him into my Top 15-16 (a solid but unspectacular fantasy backup) until he disclosed a partially torn rotator cuff. That's too much risk for me. But if he plays all 16 games, there's no question in my mind he's better for the Vikings and their fantasy prospects than either Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson.
...Trent Edwards (BUF) isn't a sleeper breakout candidate
When my first set of projections came out this year, I had Edwards as the 12th ranked fantasy QB; clearly an outlier among the staff. I saw a QB that completed more than 65% of his passes last year, and considered the impact Terrell Owens has had on his prior QBs (Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo specifically). But Owens is gimpy, and isn't as explosive as he once was, and Edwards has not executed the new offensive system crisply in either preseason game action or in practice. The last straw was an entirely new offensive line (New starters at all five positions). Edwards has fallen all the way out of my Top 20, probably the biggest drop off of anyone at the position.
...Chris Simms (DEN) wasn't viable competition for Kyle Orton, but I still don't like Orton's prospects
I am not a Kyle Orton believer, and I need to be sold on Josh McDaniels because what I've seen of him this offseason has left me scratching my head. When Orton joined the Broncos, I went so far as to suggest Chris Simms would push him for a starting job. Obviously that hasn't happened and I'll concede that Orton will be the guy there as long as he stays healthy. But I'm still down on Orton, and see a good chance of train wreck potential in Denver this year.
...Michael Vick (PHI) will wear Eagles Green...
As a Footballguy I expected someone would sign Michael Vick. As a lifelong Eagles fan I never imagined it would be Philadelphia that took the plunge. But the Eagles have taken great measures to mitigate the PR negativity that comes with the signing and it's clear they intend for Vick to be a big part of the team's offensive plans this year, as both the QB2 and a potential gimmick/Wildcat option.
...Vince Young (TEN) will be Kerry Collins' backup
Vince Young had fallen so far, and had made such puzzling comments whenever he had a microphone in front of him, I worried that he may have summarily lost the Titan's coaches confidence. But it appears Young is clearly entrenched as Kerry Collins backup, getting a ton of work in the preseason.